Minot Region, North Dakota WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ENERGY PROJECT SHALE PROJECTION WEBINAR SERIES 2014 REGIONAL UPDATES An Initiative of the Strom Center at Dickinson State University
Our Analysts: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 1. Lynn Helms, ND Dept of Mineral Resources 2. Justin Kringstad, ND Pipeline Authority 3. Dean Bangsund & Dr. Nancy Hodur, NDSU Our Funders: Bush Foundation Vision West ND US Dept. of HUD Regional Sustainability Planning Grant Our Moderators: Dr. Dick Gardner Senior Fellow, RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship Our Local Host & Coordinator: Deb Nelson, DLN Consulting
ROLE OF KEY PLAYERS 1. ND Dept of Mineral Resources Describe scale, duration & pacing of Bakken development consistent with geologic resource Identify dynamic variables, i.e. deal changers 2. ND Pipeline Authority Comparison with their modeling efforts Projected pipeline completions and their impacts 3. NDSU Dept of Agribusiness & Applied Economics Create socio-economic models that build on expert assumptions Work with team to develop outreach materials 4. Strom Center at Dickinson State University WNDEP Project host Outreach marketing & fracing workforce analysis 5. Center for Rural Entrepreneurship Work with analyst team to understand and model impacts Compile outreach tools & conduct community outreach for WNDEP and VisionWest
WHAT S CHANGED SINCE 2013? Shale resource plays tend to grow in reserve estimates over time, e.g. Barnett, Marcellus, Eagle Ford Well Spacing within drilling units and pay zones Fracking Technologies Drilling Efficiencies Employee housing type & location preferences?
NORTH DAKOTA COUNTY OIL PRODUCTION, 1952-2011 350 300 250 (millions of barrels) 200 150 100 50 0 All Others Stark Bottineau Bowman Williams Billings McKenzie
WELL DENSITY IS THE BIG QUESTION Source: Continental Resources
LYNN HELMS OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO Imagine a cone with the deepest part centered under McKenzie County with 5 pay zones Spacing Units Wells per Unit Total Wells 1,000 19 19,000 1,000 15 15,000 2,000 11 22,000 2,000 7 14,000 2,000 2 4,000 8,000 74,000 Units on outer rings of cone have fewer economic pay zones & thus fewer wells
Typical Well costs $8.7 Million Over 45 years: Produces 600,000 Barrels Generates $20 M in net profit Pays $4,925,000 in total taxes Pays $7.6 M in royalties Pays Salaries of $2.1 M Pays operating expenses of $2.4 M Source, Lynn Helms, ND Division of Mineral Resources
Source: Whiting Petroleum
MORE DRILLING LAYERS = MORE RECOVERABLE OIL Source: Continental Resources
DRILLING EFFICIENCIES DRIVE PRODUCTION GROWTH Source: Continental Resources & ND DMR
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 BOOM DURATION: WHEN WILL DRILLING & PRODUCTION BEGIN TO TAPER? 250 North Dakota Drilling Rigs 200 150 100 Low Medium High Actual 50 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 HOW MANY WELLS DRILLED PER YEAR? 3,500 North Dakota Wells Drilled Per Year 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Low Medium High Actual 500 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 TOTAL PRODUCING WELLS 80,000 North Dakota Producing Wells 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Low Medium High Actual 10,000 0
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WELL PROJECTIONS 2013 2014 1,800-3,000 wells/year = 2,000 expected 150-250 rigs = 12,000 30,000 jobs 2,300 2,900 wells/year = 2,500 expected ~180 rigs = 20-25,000 jobs Another 10,000-15,000 jobs building infrastructure 10 wells/rig/yr increasing to 12 by 2015 200 rigs can drill the wells needed to develop spacing units in 18 years 35,000-40,000 more new wells Recoverable oil = 7.5 Bbl USGS w 3ThreeForks Another 3,400 jobs building gathering systems 12.4 wells/rig/yr increasing to 14.1 by 2022 May take over 25 years to fully develop the 8,000 spacing units 45,000 74,000 total Bakken wells Recoverable oil =10-14 Bbl Helms, 32-36 Bbl Continental Oil
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Barrels per Day Helms Bakken Development Scenarios North Dakota Oil Production 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 POSSIBLE PROBABLE PROVEN
SINGLE BAKKEN WELL = MORE TRUCKS & JOBS 292 TRUCKLOADS FOR DRILLING, 834 FOR FRAC Source: Lynn Helms, ND DMR
MULTI-WELL PADS, TRUCKLOADS FOR WELLS 2+ DRILLING = 198, FRAC = 584 Source: Lynn Helms, ND DMR
NDSU EMPLOYMENT, HOUSING & POPULATION PROJECTIONS Dean Bangsund Research Scientist Dr. Nancy Hodur Research Assistant Professor
NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY MODEL Consistent with Helms/Kringstad assumptions Rapidly changing technology & other variables led NDSU away from trad I/O models and into uncharted territory Most likely or medium, pessimistic or low, & optimistic or high scenarios Splits jobs into permanent vs transient Is more accurate at regional level Communities can affect the local distribution of opportunities, impacts, risks, and growth.
DYNAMIC ELEMENTS ANNUAL CHANGES OVER 2014-39 Drilling efficiency in ND 12.4/wells/rig/yr in 2014 to 13 by 2016 to 14.1 in 2022 Employment /drilling rig - 110 FTE/rig in 2014 to 100 by 2020 down to 93 by 2026 Fracking Labor plug and perf and ball and sleeve Strom Center at Dickinson State assisted in estimating labor to range from 2.5 to 2.3 FTE/per well fracked. Oil field service Model estimates service requirements based on well age Dynamic response in model, higher requirements in early years reduced requirements in later years. Starting value 1.6 FTE per well in year 1 of well s life, rate reduced over time Oil Well Transportation (crude oil production) Transportation requirements adjusted to account for time till completion of gathering systems. 75 percent reduction in oil well trucking labor requirements over 14 years Temp vs Permanent employee ratio Secondary employment added lagged response function to the model Base Employment constrained in Williston & Dickinson regions to show some crowding out effect Housing Mix change in type over time, more apts
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 ND Petroleum Sector Total Direct Employment Low Medium High Actual
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 60,000 North Dakota Total Direct Employment Petroleum Sector Consensus Scenario 2013 50,000 40,000 30,000 Temporary Direct Permanent Direct 20,000 10,000 0
70,000 North Dakota Total Direct Employment, Petroleum Sector, Most Likely Scenario 2014 60,000 50,000 Temporary, Development Employment 40,000 Long-term, Permanent Employment 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
ND Petroleum Sector Employment Dickinson, Minot, & Williston Regions Most Likely Scenario 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Drilling & Fracing Oil Field Service Gathering Total 20,000 10,000 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 70,000 ND Petroleum Sector Employment by Region Most Likely Scenario 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Minot Region Dickinson Region Williston Region 20,000 10,000 0
70.0% Petroleum Employment % of Total Employment 2014 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Dickinson Region Williston Region Minot Region 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
70.0% North Dakota Oil and Gas Employment Percent Employment by Region Historic and Projected 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Historic Share Projected Share 30.0% Williston Region Minot region Dickinson Region 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
SECONDARY EMPLOYMENT DYNAMIC APPROACH Complex set of conditions in Williston Basin will continually change throughout forecast period Temporary versus permanent petroleum workers: composition of workforce changes and consumption/spending differences require adjustments in traditional approaches Wage rates, housing, & workforce availability affect ability of businesses to add employment Secondary job response has lagged behind upturn in petroleum industry employment -- lagged effects added to the model (with constraints) Changing coefficients and lagged effects = highly dynamic component of the model
70,000 Minot Region 2013 Composition of Employment Consensus Scenario 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Secondary Added Total Direct Petroleum Other Employment 20,000 10,000 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 Minot Region 2014 Composition of Employment Medium Scenario 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Secondary Added Total Direct Petroleum Other Employment 10,000 0
HOUSING AND POPULATION KEY DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS Permanent population Based on permanent workforce (long-term jobs) Relates closely to Census estimates Examples: gas plant workers, pipeline operators, oil well workers, and service, retail, and commercial Service population (includes everybody) Includes permanent population Includes non-resident workers, short-term* workers, shift workers and accompanying residents Examples: frac crews, pipeline construction, drilling rigs, truck drivers
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 80,000 Minot Region 2014 Housing Demand Permanent Housing Units 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Low Medium High 20,000 10,000 0
70,000 Minot Region 2014 Medium Scenario Demand: Housing Units 60,000 Total (temporary and permanent) Housing Units 50,000 40,000 Permanent (census) Housing Units 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
160,000 Minot Region 2014 Permanent (Census) Population 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 High Medium High 40,000 20,000 0
160,000 Minot Region 2014 Medium Scenario Population Projections 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 Total (service) Population Permanent (census) Population 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
MINOT REGION PROJECTIONS (MOST LIKELY) 2013 2020 2039 Permanent Housing Units % Ave Annual Growth Permanent Population % Ave Annual Growth 47,550 57,010 64,830 2.6% 0.7% 106,310 126,410 144,040 2012-2020 2.4% 2020-2039 0.7%
INFERRING COUNTY IMPLICATIONS County % of 2010 Regional Population Burke 7.1% Bottineau 2.2% McHenry 6.0% You can crudely estimate county share s of regional estimates with these proportions Our models allow for historical trends, housing type & other data Mountrail 8.5% Pierce 4.8% Renville 2.7% Ward 68.6%
ACTIONS TO RETAIN COMMUNITY IDENTITY Agree on community vision & goals Engage with VisionWest planning Use land use planning to encourage, condition, and site housing & community development Plan/require amenities that improve quality of life, e.g. parks, trails, rec facilities, comm. ctr. Regardless of vision, plan for increased traffic flows, truck by-passes, hazard & emergency response capacity, etc.
USING THIS DATA IN YOUR COMMUNITY Discuss the implications of higher projected growth on your community s strategic plan Update and amend plans as required Inform the general public of these projected scenarios and their local implications Use these growth scenarios to argue for increased local funding from oil revenues Support funding continued socioeconomic modeling and community outreach, in order to monitor the projected Bakken development
CONCLUSIONS Latest comprehensive projection of employment, housing, and pop Scenario of likely future; not precise prediction Our job to give you input Rate of technological change much faster than expected; always check assumptions underlying projections Last year s medium scenario is this year s low This boom is longer-lived; Taper doesn t start until 2022-30
CONCLUSIONS, PART 2 Regional employment projections are 5,000 higher than last year by 2039 Permanent housing also 5,000 higher by 2039 Permanent population will grow 38,000 from now to 2039 & 11,000 higher that last year s projection The Bakken region still in dynamic state of flux; projections need to be revised regularly You have some ability to affect the amount of growth that comes to your community. Region has the opportunity to turn temporary oil workers into permanent residents with families
THOUGHTS? WHAT ELSE? We ve outlined a likely scenario, and flanked it with optimistic and pessimistic alternatives to offer you a plausible range of outcomes in an uncertain & dynamic world. 1. What other questions need to be answered? 2. Are there other subjects or community impacts for a webinar of lessons learned in other boomtowns? 3. Is there support at the local or state level to continue this work?
THANKS FOR LISTENING! If you have further questions, please contact: RayAnn Kilen, Strom Center @ DSU (701) 483-2470, rayann.kilen@dickinsonstate.edu Deb Nelson, DLN Consulting (701) 483-2801, deb@dlnconsulting.com Dick Gardner, CRE & Bootstrap Solutions (208) 859-8878, Bootstrap1@msn.com