Volume 36 Issue 15 November 29, 2017 Auburns QB Stidham Stuns No. 1 Alabama Alabama's loss is a major impact in the playoff race FIGHT FOR THE FINAL 4 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK Soon after we publish this newsletter, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release the fifth of its six rankings, and there will be a makeover after losses by No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Miami. Expect a strong debate about Clemson and Oklahoma for the No. 1 spot, and undefeated Wisconsin and two-loss Auburn should both join the top four. Next week's conference championship games are the final opportunity for teams to make a good impression for the committee. Here's a look at some of the questions the committee will consider after rivalry week, as well as the possibilities still looming ahead of Selection Day on Dec. 3: 1. No. 1 goes down: What does Bama's loss mean? Nick Saban believes Alabama is worthy of a place in the playoff despite its loss to Auburn but the Tide probably will fall out of the top four this week after their loss to Auburn leaves them at 11-1 and without even a division title. This is significant because when it comes to the criteria the committee uses to separate comparable teams, the Tide come up short in a few areas, including their lack of a conference championship. That can be overcome, as Ohio State proved last season, but Alabama has given the selection committee reason to call its schedule strength into question. Entering Saturday's game against Auburn, Alabama was No. 1 in ESPN's game control metric, which measures how a team controls a game from start to finish. So while the Tide have been dominant, the committee will also point out that their best wins have come against three-loss LSU, which lost to Troy, and four-loss Mississippi State. Their only other Power 5 win against an opponent over.500 was vs. Texas A&M. The best-case scenario for Alabama would be to have Auburn win the SEC. It would also help the Tide if there were other two-loss conference champions. The ACC is guaranteed a one-loss champion, which probably will get in, so Alabama's best bet would be to see Wisconsin and/or Oklahoma lose in their respective conference championships. Alabama's situation is different than Ohio State's last season in that the Buckeyes were rewarded for their nonconference win over Oklahoma. Alabama's season-opening win over Florida State does not resonate in the same way. Also, the Buckeyes were the sole Big Ten team in the CFP last season, despite not winning their own division. It's hard to envision the SEC champion, whether it's Auburn or Georgia, not making the top four. So who will the Tide take the place of, if not a team from their own conference? As for Auburn, if the Tigers beat Georgia to win the SEC, they would make a great case to become the first two-loss team in a CFP semifinal. With upsets over two teams the committee had ranked No. 1 in Georgia and Alabama, plus a second win over Georgia in the conference championship game, Auburn would arguably have the best wins in the country. Their only losses would be to Clemson and LSU, two ranked opponents.
2. So who's the new No. 1? The debate probably will focus on No. 3 Clemson and No. 4 Oklahoma, each of which won convincingly on Saturday. Oklahoma has five road wins against Power 5 opponents and three wins against ranked opponents (Ohio State, Oklahoma State and TCU). Clemson has a win over the SEC West winner, Auburn, and Oklahoma has a win over Big Ten East winner Ohio State. Nick Saban's playoff jockeying began just moments after his No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide suffered their first loss of the season Saturday, with the coach saying the Tide deserve a shot based on "what they've been able to accomplish." No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Miami went down, bringing chaos to our College Football Playoff picks for the final week of the regular season. Welcome, Wisconsin and Auburn! And will Clemson or Oklahoma take over the top spot? Auburn's Iron Bowl win sets up a mad dash to the finish line with no clear leader Alabama stumbled just short of the finish line, but will it cost the Tide a spot in the playoff? It's a crowded field of contenders heading into championship week. Oklahoma has five wins against Power 5 teams over.500 and no FCS opponents. Clemson has seven wins against Power 5 opponents with winning records, which is a big reason why the committee continues to forgive the Tigers' loss to 4-8 Syracuse. The Sooners' only loss is to Iowa State, which finished a respectable 7-5. It's a significant debate because seeding matters when it comes to where each semifinal game is played. The committee won't put the No. 1 seed at a geographic disadvantage. 3. Can the Big 12 play its way out of the playoff with a title game? In 2015, Oklahoma sat comfortably in the top four heading into the final ranking of the season, with no conference championship game to play and nothing to lose. This season, Oklahoma will again be firmly in the top four, but the Sooners will play TCU in the resurrected Big 12 title game, which was brought back for the sole purpose of best positioning the league for a spot in the top four. Now Oklahoma has to beat TCU for a second time this season to stay in the top four. If the Horned Frogs win, the Big 12 will have a two-loss conference champion that could be snubbed in favor of, for example, a one-loss Alabama that didn't even win its division. The Big 12 title game could end up being a dagger to the league's playoff hopes, not the boost it was intended to be. 4. What about a two-loss Ohio State? If the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game, it might come down to whether the committee would favor them over a one-loss Alabama that didn't win its conference title. As bad as Ohio State's 55-24 loss at Iowa was, ending the season with a top-four win against the only undefeated Power 5 team left in the country might trump anything on the Tide's résumé in the eyes of the committee. The Buckeyes would also have wins over ranked opponents in Penn State and Michigan State. Auburn might not be the only two-loss team to crack the top four this year.
PRES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BET North Texas at FLORIDA ATLANTIC Over Total by 11 This FAU team has been brilliant this year, and the mastery of Kiffin is to thank for it all. The Owls average 39.8 points per game, and they haven't been beaten since September 23 in a tough game at Buffalo. When you talk about the Owls, you have to talk about their spread rushing attack. Neither Jason Driskel nor Daniel Parr really have the ability to throw the ball consistently, but Devin Singletary is a heck of a running back. He has 25 total touchdowns this season, 24 of which have come on the ground. Since being held to 94 yards on 23 carries with one touchdown in his first two games of the season, Singletary has averaged 143 rushing yards per game since and has 24 of his 25 total touchdowns. The sophomore has run for at least 100 yards in all 10 games, giving him the longest active streak of 100+ yard performances in America. North Texas underwent a tremendous reclamation project this year as well. The Mean Green have started to throw the ball a ton more this year, and Mason Fine is really taking well to his second year on the job as their starting quarterback. Fine is completing 64.4 percent of his passes and has 27 touchdowns. Sure, he's thrown 11 picks, too, but on 413 pass attempts, that's not the end of the world. Don't think for one second that North Texas doesn't remember what happened the last time it came down to Boca Raton. The Mean Green were down 24-0 after one quarter, 41-7 at halftime and 62-17 at the end of the third quarter in what turned out to be a 69-31 Owls' romp. That's a total of 100 points! FAU kept its foot on the gas pedal the whole game, amassing 804 yards of offense and racking up 37 first downs. Driskel threw for 357 yards and two scores while Singletary had 123 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Five different players had rushing touchdowns, and all five men had at least 68 rushing yards. There was just no stopping the Owls, and three North Texas turnovers didn't do anything to help the cause. This could be a big moment in Fine's career and the game that we realize that what Seth Littrell is trying to accomplish is finally working. We suspect this is going to be a really high-scoring Conference USA Championship Game, with a ton of p points like the last game. I'm going over the total of 73.5 in this game. Projected Score: FAU 48, North Texas 37 DJ COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BET Toledo -19.5 Over Akron by 30 The Zips are in the MAC Championship Game for the first time since 2005, and outside of the fact that the MAC East was once again terrible this season, it's hard to point to any one given reason why Terry Bowden has gotten his team to this point. The Akron defense is woeful, allowing 421.6 yards per game, and the offense is only good for 323.9 yards and 23.2 points per game. Thomas Woodson has been suspended by the Zips for a violation of team rules, and though there have been several instances where Woodson has been thought to be coming back, it's clear that this team is living and dying with Kato Nelson under center the rest of the way (but check to ensure he's out). Nelson has been woeful statistically since he has taken over as the starter, but the team won crucial games against Ohio and Kent State to clinch the MAC East under his direction. Had the Rockets not lost that game to Ohio back on November 8, we could have made a great case for them to still be in the discussion for the New Year's Six. Their only other loss came against Miami, a team that was the No. 2 team in America until losing to Pittsburgh on Black Friday. The one thing you know about this team is that it's going to get points on the board. Take the shocking Ohio game away, and this was a team that averaged 524.5 yards and 41.3 points per game, numbers that would have been amongst the best in the nation. Toledo was a rare club this year that featured a 3,000-yard passer (Logan Woodside), a 1,000-yard rusher (Terry Swanson) and a 1,000-yard receiver (Dionate Johnson), and it also had two other 500+ yard rushers (Shakif Seymond and Art Thompkins) and two 500+ yard receivers (Jon'Vea Johnson and Cody Thompson). Few teams in the land can boast that many weapons, and it's going to be up to the Zips to try to figure out how to slow all these men down. These two teams collided at the Glass Bowl two months ago, and the results were relatively predictable. Toledo races out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back in a 48-21 triumph. The Rockets marched 205 yards on their first four drives of the game, and only a Woodside interception kept them from scoring touchdowns on all four possessions. Toledo literally didn't have a single drive that covered fewer than 20 yards. There isn't any good reason to like Akron in this game. The Zips are overmatched offensively and defensively, and that's why they're 19.5-point underdogs. Projected Score: Toledo 47, Akron 17
BAGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BET FLORIDA ST. -27 Over LA Monroe by 17 Motivation is going to be a big question in this game on both sides. The Seminoles should be done for the season, but they're finally playing well at the end of the season. They fell to 3-6 after losing to Clemson in Death Valley, and it was only then that the team announced that this game would be made up in Week 14 just to try to get into a bowl game. James Blackman knows that this is probably the last game he ever plays in at Doak Campbell Stadium before Deondre Francois comes back to lead the team next year. He's definitely improved down the stretch, but the Florida State offense has been a no-show for much of the season and waited until the end of October to post its first double-digit lead of the season. ULM doesn't have anything left to play for either, though. The team was beaten in what should have been its Sun Belt finale against Arkansas State 67-50. At least the Warhawks have been interesting this year. They've scored at least 50 points four times this season and at least 45 points five times. They hung right in there with a Memphis team that is playing for a spot in the New Year's Six this week in a 37-29 loss, and they knocked off an Appalachian State team a couple weeks ago that was a trendy upset pick against Georgia in Week 1. Even at Auburn, ULM was locked in a 7-7 game at the end of the first quarter and a 14-7 game 35 minutes into the affair until the wheels started to come off. Caleb Evans has had an absolutely incredible season in both the positive and negative direction for ULM. He threw for 454 yards and ran for 61 more against Arkansas State, accounting for six total touchdowns, but he was also picked off three times. The Warhawks have allowed 534.6 yards per game this season and are fresh off of a 781-yard performance allowed against Arkansas State. It's been a tough year for the Seminoles at home, but at least they've kept their streak together of winning these dinky non-conference games against Group of Five schools. The Noles have won 15 straight home games against non-power Five schools, going 11-4 ATS in that span. Jimbo Fisher's team has been to a bowl game in 35 consecutive seasons, easily the longest active streak in college football. It's going to take a win over the Warhawks to keep that going on Saturday, or else the top streak will revert to Virginia Tech, who will be playing in a bowl game for a 25th straight season this year. This Florida State team, though, doesn't have the offensive firepower to beat a spread set this high. This is ULM's bowl game, and we suspect it's going to play like it on Saturday afternoon at the Doak. Don't be shocked if this game ends up being much closer than the experts believe. Take the ULM War Hawks plus the points. Projected Score: Florida St. 40, LA Monroe 23 SAMMY COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BET Arkansas St. -1.5 Over Troy by 10 It's easy to remember that this Troy team is the same one that beat LSU earlier this season at Tiger Stadium. At 9-2 with that win in the Bayou, the Trojans would have hoped to at least get a little bit of consideration for the New Year's Six. Instead, Troy lost the next week to South Alabama and blew its chance. The Trojans haven't lost since that point to keep their hopes alive of winning the Sun Belt, but they really haven't been challenged either. Only a road game at Georgia State was a game that featured a single-digit spread, and the Trojans have merely done what was expected of them. Arkansas State had some near-misses this year, too. The team also lost to South Alabama in a close call, but its 43-36 loss at Nebraska to kick off the season was the biggest sin of all. It would have been a massive victory for the status of the Sun Belt in general, though in the grand scheme of things, this is the only game of the season that means anything. Last week, both Brandon Silvers and Justin Hansen were on absolute fire. Hansen threw for a school-record 520 yards against Louisiana Monroe while Silvers was good for 380 versus Texas State. That said, both teams are up against significantly better secondaries this week and should be thoroughly challenged. The Trojans have been strong all season on defense at 318.1 yards per game and 16.8 points per game allowed. Arkansas State is second in the Sun Belt in basically every defensive category to Troy, allowing 331.3 yards and 24.2 points per game. Hansen was a wreck in a 35-3 loss when these two teams met last November. If Hansen can merely avoid beating himself, the Red Wolves are going to be in good shape in this game. The Red Wolves have been a lot more proficient throwing the football in recent weeks, and Hansen actually is a legitimate professional prospect in the future. They've won eight straight home games and are a tough nut to crack in Joneboro. For as good as Troy has been, this betting line is just too strange to ignore. If it looks like a fish and smells like a fish, it must be fishy. We aren't taking the bait. We'll take the Red Wolves. Projected Score: Arkansas St. 34, Troy 24
CONSENSUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UNDERDOG BEST BET Fresno St. +9.5 Over BOISE ST. by 2 The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs played against each other in the final week of the regular season, and they both knew they were going to be seeing these familiar faces once again seven days later in the Mountain West Championship Game. The Broncos were laying 6.5-points when these two teams met in Fresno last week. The game was a big one for the Bulldogs and their fans, as they went from the bottom of the Mountain West to the top of the heap this season, and they really came out of nowhere. Marcus McMaryion went from a man who could barely string two positive passing plays together at Oregon State to one who had 2,212 yards and 14 touchdowns through the air with just three interceptions at Fresno State. Fresno State constantly played from ahead this season, a trait that it showed against the Broncos last week as well. The team didn't do anything particularly flashy outside of an 81-yard touchdown bomb from McMaryion to KeeSean Johnson that put the game away. The Bulldogs converted 8-of-15 on third down, avoided too many horrible down-and-distance plays and largely kept the Broncos at bay. What must also be remembered from Boise State's standpoint is that it lost any chance to represent the Group of Five in the New Year's Six. Back-to-back wins over Fresno State would have kept the Broncos in the discussion had UCF lost to Memphis in the AAC Championship Game. Now, this game is just for a conference title, knowing that the UCF/Memphis winner will surely be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. The one man that Fresno State couldn't seem to find an answer for last week was Cedrick Wilson. Boise State's top receiver has been a huge threat no matter whether it has been Montrell Cozart or Brett Rypien under center this year, and he was once again huge in the last game of the regular season when he hauled in seven balls for 134 yards. Wilson is the man who opens up the offense for the running game and gives Alexander Mattison the chance to be a stud both as a pass catcher and as a rusher. If Wilson is controlled in this game, it's a wonder where Boise State's points are going to come from, knowing that both Rypien and Cozart have struggled all season long in targeting any of the other BSU wide receivers. If we're really being honest about Fresno State, this team is a lot better than its record probably indicates. Sure, it was beaten by UNLV as a 22-point favorite in shocking fashion, but its other two losses came at Alabama and at Washington in back-to-back weeks, and both games were covered. This is a team that upset New Mexico at home and San Diego State on the road before taking out Boise State. It held Wyoming to just seven points and the Aztecs to just three while shutting out the Lobos. Defensively, this squad is deserving of its No. 18 overall ranking and No. 12 scoring defense mark. Boise State is a two possessions favorite in this game, but we think this is a big mistake. The Broncos were never one of the best 25 teams in America, and we think they'll end up saddled with a second straight loss at the hands of the Bulldogs to go from a potential spot in the Fiesta Bowl to a third-tier bowl game in a hurry. Take Fresno State and the generous points. Projected Score: Fresno St. 26, Boise St. 24
NFL TEAMS IN FINAL DRIVE TO REACH THE PLAYOFF BRACKETS Dak-to-Dez Connection Is Absent This Year NFL Football Recap -- The Atlanta Falcons are flying high as they dumped the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 34-20 count as WR Julio Jones took the team on his back and posted one of those amazing performances. He racked up 12 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns, including a 51-yard score on a gadget play with WR Mohamed Sanu lining up in the Wildcat formation and throwing to him downfield. It's been a nice turnaround for the Falcons, who covered their seasonhigh third straight after starting out 2-6 ATS across the first eight outings. Next up is a visit from the Minnesota Vikings, who come in a bit more rested since their win on Thanksgiving. The Vikings enter on a six-game cover streak. -- The Los Angeles Chargers continued their amazing turnaround with an impressive 28-6 win on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. After starting out 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS across the first four outings, the Bolts are back and just one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the flatlining AFC West. The Chargers have posted covers in six of their past seven outings, including each of their past two at home. They'll welcome the winless Cleveland Browns to town in Week 13 before hosting the Washington Redskins in Week 14. -- The second-highest total on the board, Miami-New England (49), lived up to high-scoring expectations with the Patriots coming through with a 35-17 win. The game got off to a very good start for 'over' bettors with 31 points by halftime. However, the NFC showdown between New Orleans-L.A. Rams (54) didn't quite have the fireworks Vegas expected, nor did the Buffalo-Kansas City (47) tilt, as each of those games never really threatened to go over the total. The 'over' result for Miami was no big surprise. The over is 6-0 across the past six for Miami after the 'under' was 0-5 to start the season. -- The three lowest totals on the board from Sunday -- Jacksonville-Arizona (37), Cleveland-Cincinnati (39) and Carolina- N.Y. Jets (39.5) -- each hit the 'over'. The Cards-Jags game had a flurry in the fourth quarter with 25 total points after just 26 total points through the first three quarters. The same was true with the fourth-quarter scoring in the Panthers-Jets battle, as there were 35 points on the board in through 45 minutes, and 27 points in the final 15 minutes. The 'over' is 3-1 in four games against AFC East foes this season, and 3-4 in seven games against everyone else. -- The Chargers defense has been red hot lately, allowing just 15.5 points per game over the past six outings, as the 'under' is now an impressive 5-1 during their six-game resurgence. In Week 13 they'll face a winless Browns team which has scored 18 or fewer points in six of hteir past seven, and eight of their 10 games overall. The 'under' is 6-4 overall for Cleveland. -- The 'Over/Under' finished 1-1 in the first two primetime games during Week 12, and the 'over' is 23-14 (62.2%) through the first 37 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens game yet to go. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013. Injury Report -- Broncos QB Paxton Lynch (ankle) was forced out of Sunday's game due to an ankle injury, replaced by QB Trevor Siemian. Lynch was making his first start of the season, and he was in tears and inconsolable when he was unable to return to the game. -- Buccaneers RB Doug Martin (concussion) left Sunday's game against the Falcons due to a concussion. -- 49ers QB C.J. Beathard (leg) sustained a lower leg bruise late in the fourth quarter of the loss against the Seahawks, so QB Jimmy Garoppolo made his much-anticipated team debut and he threw a touchdown before the game ended. -- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (foot) returned from the Reserve/Injured (designated to return) list on Sunday, but he checked out in the third quarter after aggravating his injury. He left due to soreness, with the field turf surface to blame. Unfortunately for the Panthers he will face the New Orleans on the road, also on an artificial surface. CFB Pick Packs CFB Guaranteed Picks NFL Pick Packs NFL Guaranteed Picks
PRES PRO FOOTBALL BEST BET SEATTLE Over Philadelphia by 3 Last year in Week 7 at Seattle, the Seahawks were 6.5-point favorites and won 26-15. Russell Wilson not only threw for 272 yards and a touchdown but became the first Seattle quarterback to ever catch a TD pass as well, grabbing a 15- yarder from receiver Doug Baldwin on a trick play. That started a five-game losing streak for Philadelphia, which wasn t even half as good as it is this season. Wentz threw for 218 yards, two scores and two interceptions. The Eagles (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) have the NFL s best record and best ATS mark. They could be NFC East champions by Thursday might as their magic number is one a Cowboys home loss to Washington on Thursday would seal the East for Philly. If Dallas wins, then an Eagles victory does it. Philadelphia hasn t won the division since 2013, which was also the last year it made the playoffs. The Eagles won a ninth straight game Sunday, 31-3 over visiting Chicago. Wentz continued his MVP campaign by throwing for three touchdowns he leads the league with 25 TD passes and the Eagles held the overmatched Bears to 140 yards. It was Philadelphia s fourth consecutive win by at least 23 points and third in a row by precisely 28. The last two time the Eagles were 10-1, in 2004 and 1980, they went to the Super Bowl. The franchise has never won that game. Seattle (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) remained a game behind the L.A. Rams in the NFC West thanks to a 24-13 win at a bad San Francisco team. That had the potential to be a major trap game for the Seahawks off a tough Monday night home loss to Atlanta and ahead of this mega-showdown. Russell Wilson threw for two scores against the Niners and ran for another. Wilson became the winningest quarterback in NFL history in his first six seasons with 63 victories. The Seattle defense held the 49ers to 280 yards and kept them out of the end zone until the game s final play. The Seattle Seahawks have made the postseason for five consecutive seasons, but that streak could be in jeopardy if they lose Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, the team with the NFL s best record. Seattle has won three straight and five of six against Philadelphia. It used to be nearly impossible for teams to win in Seattle, but the Seahawks have dropped their past two there albeit only by three points each to Atlanta and Washington. Both went down to the wire. This is the first time since October 2012 that the Seahawks have been home underdogs. For what it s worth, they have won and covered their past three in that situation. In what I believe to be another close game for the Hawks at home, I'm going to buy a half point and take it up to + 7 and back the desperate home dog in this spot. Projected Score: Seattle 27, Philadelphia 24 DJ PRO FOOTBALL BEST BET Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI Over Total by 11 There may not be two teams that hate each other more in the NFL these days than the AFC North rival Bengals and Steelers. Expect some chippiness Monday night when they close Week 13 in Cincinnati.This hasn t been much of a rivalry of late as the Steelers have won the past five meetings and the Bengals have covered just 2 of the past 10. In Week 7, the Bengals came out of their bye, were 4-point dogs at Pittsburgh and lost 29-14. All of the Steelers Big 3 had good games: Ben Roethlisberger threw for 224 yards and two scores without an interception, Le Veon Bell had 192 yards from scrimmage, and Antonio Brown caught a TD pass. Chris Boswell added a Heinz Field-record five field goals and accounted for all of Pittsburgh s points in the second half. That was the Steelers biggest margin of victory during this winning streak. Pittsburgh (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) remains the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC but had to fight tooth-and-nail Sunday night to beat a struggling Packers team, 31-28. Boswell hit a 53-yard field goal with no time remaining in the Steelers sixth straight victory. Roethlisberger threw for 351 yards and four scores (his second game in a row with four TD passes), and the amazing Brown had 10 catches for 169 yards and two scores. He s on pace for a fifth straight 100-catch season, which has never been done. Pittsburgh had 462 yards of offense. Top cornerback Joe Haden remained out with his own injury and the pass defense suffered. The Bengals (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) kept their wild-card hopes alive with a 30-16 victory over the state of Ohio s junior varsity team last week, also known as the winless Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati entered with the worst rushing offense in the league but had 152 yards, led by rookie Joe Mixon s 114. Dalton finished 18 of 28 for 214 yards with two touchdowns. Cincinnati scored the first five times it had the ball. Still, Coach Marvin Lewis likely won t be overly thrilled with the win considering his team was outgained 405-361 by one of the NFL s worst offenses. Last game against the Steelers, Cincinnati was down 20-14 at the half but didn t score again and had 19 total yards after intermission, with Andy Dalton picked off twice. In that game they had a total of 43 points. I expect a much better showing from the Bengals offense and the Steelers are a scoring machine lately. Take Over 43 now before the line moves up. Projected Score: Pittsburgh 30, Cincinnati 24
BAGS PRO FOOTBALL BEST BET ARIZONA +7.5 Over LA Rams By 2 Arizona probably wasn t going to be good enough to make the playoffs regardless in 2017, especially after losing superstar running back David Johnson to a likely season-ending wrist injury in a Week 1 loss. However, any remaining hopes the Cards had of the postseason vanished in trip to London in Week 7. In that fateful London game, the Cards were destroyed 33-0 by the Los Angeles Rams and also saw starting quarterback Carson Palmer go down with a broken arm that likely has ended his season as well. The Rams completely dominated the game with 425 yards of offense and nearly 40 minutes of possession to 196 yards for the Cardinals. Jared Goff threw for 235 yards and a score, while Todd Gurley rushed 22 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. Palmer was 10-for-18 for 122 yards and a pick before leaving. Backup Drew Stanton was just 5-for-14 for 66 yards and an interception. Arizona had 25 yards on 12 rushes as well. The Rams (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) lead Seattle by a game in the NFC West as they look to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2004. First-year Sean McVay has to be the NFL Coach of the Year thus far as this was a 4-12 club last year under Jeff Fisher and John Fassel. L.A. ended New Orleans eight-game winning streak Sunday, 26-20, in a playoff preview. Goff threw for 354 yards and two scores. Greg Zuerlein kicked four field goals he has 129 points and is on pace to break the single-season record in scoring for a kicker and perhaps the overall NFL record of 186 points set by Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 with the Chargers. L.A. played the Saints without leading receiver Robert Woods due to a shoulder injury and he s not likely for this week. The Rams are guaranteed their first non-losing season since 2006. Arizona (5-6 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) beat AFC South leader Jacksonville on Sunday, 27-24, on a career-long 57-yard field goal by 19-year veteran Phil Dawson with one second to play. It was the Cardinals first victory over a team with a winning record in 2017; they haven t won consecutive games yet. With Palmer out and Stanton dealing with a knee injury, third-string QB Blaine Gabbert got his second straight start and threw for 241 yards and two scores against the NFL s No. 1 pass defense and the team that drafted him No. 10 overall in 2011. Expect Gabbert to keep starting as he s young enough to still be the team s future under center and it needs to find out. Go with Arizona here on the spread, as they've had this one circled since the London debacle. There's a few books plus 7.5, so grab that hook. Projected Score: Arizona 23, LA Rams 21 SAMMY PRO FOOTBALL BEST BET Carolina + 4 Over NEW ORLEANS by 5 While the Saints and their winning streak has garnered all of the attention, the Panthers have quietly been one of the best teams in the league. They are 8-3 overall with losses to the Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears. Carolina has won four in a row and six of eight. Cam Newton has gotten better as the season has progressed. He had 10 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 79.1 quarterback rating through his first eight games. Since then, he has four touchdowns, no interceptions and has a QB rating of 87.3. Although the numbers aren t great, it works just fine when you re defense ranks second in yards allowed (281.8) and eighth in points allowed (18.8). The key to this game will be the Panthers ground game. They are fifth in rushing (129.2 per game) and New Orleans has a tough time stopping the run. They allow 4.6 yards per carry. The Saints impressive eight-game winning streak came to an end against the Rams. Their main issue was that they couldn t sustain drives as they converted just three-of-13 on third down and held the ball for 24:34 compared to the 35:26 for the Rams. While the Saints did have 123 rushing yards, 74 of that came on one carry. That means they averaged just 3.06 yards per carry on their 16 other attempts. For the Saints to get back on track, they ll have to get back to running the ball effectively. Yes, they can pass the ball but what led to eight straight wins was balance on offense. When they can pound the ball, they re a tough team to stop. When they can t, they re still a hard-to-stop offense, but a predictable one. The challenge for New Orleans is that the Panthers don t give up much on the ground. They rank third in the NFL, allowing 83.2 rushing yards per game. New Orleans will have to impose their will as they did in the first meeting when they managed 149 rushing yards while average 5.5 yards per carry. The Saints have dominated this series of late, winning five straight meetings. However, this meeting figures to be different than the Week 3 contest when Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was still rusty after offseason surgery. He had just 167 passing yards and three interceptions. The Panthers are one of the best teams to bet on the road as they have won and covered five of their six road games. They re also great as a dog, covering all four times this season and nine of their last 11 in that role. Projected Score: Carolina 26, New Orleans 21
COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL LEANER PICKS All leaner picks by Sammy & Bags. If game is not listed, it's a pass or not a leaner pick. Date/ET NFL Games Line Other NFL Picks 11/30/17 8:25 ET 4:05 ET 4:25 ET Washington Redskins Dallas Cowboys Detroit Lions Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings Atlanta Falcons New England Patriots Buffalo Bills Denver Broncos Miami Dolphins Houston Texans Tennessee Titans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Tampa Bay Buccaneers Green Bay Packers Kansas City Chiefs New York Jets Cleveland Browns Los Angeles Chargers New York Giants Oakland Raiders 44-1.5 42-3 39.5-3.5 47.5-3 -8.5 49 38.5 PK 42-7 40.5-9.5 PK -3.5 44 42.5-13.5 43-7 Washington lost the first game at Landover, 33-19. That was a different Dallas team with Elliott rushing for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Washington off a week s rest and is the better team at this tiime. Ravens defense has given up a combined 16 points in their last 2 games. Stafford is battling a sprained ankle. Give me the Ravens ATS. The 49ers have a banged up QB and another QB who doesn't know the playbook. The Chicago Bears easily play their best football at home. I'd side with Chicago this week. Vikings are the hottest team in the league with 7 straight wins and are led by a D that's allowed 17 or less in 7 of last 9. Minnesota has also had a mini bye week to prepare after Tkurkey day game. I will take points. The over is 7-3 in the Patriots last 10 vs the AFC, 5-1 in their last six on turf, and 48-19 in their last 67 after scoring more than 30 points. It is also 5-1 in the Bills last 6, 16-5 in their last 21 at home, 9-4 in their last 13 at home and 4-0 in their last 4 in December. and the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Go Over. This game is a pick em, and I think it will play out like that for most of the afternoon. Flipped the coin and came up Miami. Coin flips are 5-0 this year! Take the Fish at home. Houstons last outing against the Titans, the Texans picked off 4 passes. Texans are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Tennessee. Expect those trends to continue. Jacksonville already blanked the Colts by a 27-0 score on the road earlier this season, and I anticipate another convincing win in this one. The Packers offense came alive last week with Brett Hundley tossing 3 TD's against a strong Steelers defense. Tampa Bay has the worst pass D in the NFL Bucs have allowed at least 30 points in five of their six road games. Packers Chiefs offense is in a big slump, averaging only 12 points in their last three. Jets have been very tough on their home field. Josh McCown tossed 3 TD's against Carolina last week, so I am taking the Jets. Chargers are hot and just spanked the Cowboys by 22 points on the road. Browns defense has allowed at least 30 points in 3 out of their last 4 games. Cleveland has lost by 14 or more points in 3 out of their last 4 games, lay it. The Giants injury-riddled team has benefitted from a slumping Chiefs team and another oft-injured Redskins squad. Oakland should be able to cover at home against this lesser NFC East foe. Date/ET NCAA Games Line Other NCAA Picks 12/01/17 8:00 ET 12:00 ET 12:00 ET 12:00 ET 12:30 ET Stanford Southern Cal Memphis Central Florida Akron Toledo Massachusetts Florida Intl Texas Christian Oklahoma 58.5-3 84.5-7 57-21.5 55.5-1.5 63.5-7 These two teams scored a combined 66 points in their meeting back in September and this contest should see scoring from both sides. The over is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings between Stanford and USC. Over again. This matchup features the number one and two ranked offensive teams in points per game in the Country, and this should be a high-scoring game. Over In the previous meeting Toledo cruised to a 27-point victory. Akron may look different now, but the Rockets look like an even more well-oiled machine at this point. Rockets QB Woodside at 65.5% is too much for the Zips. Never did have the guts to play the Minutemen on the road. Now traveling from cool crisp New Enland to hot Florida. FIU is the side. TCU s defense is their calling card. The first meeting this season fell short of this total and there s no reason to think that this one will merit more fireworks. Look for it to fall just short of the total again. 2/02/17 Georgia Southern Coastal Carolina -2.5 53 Chanticleers Anderson completing just 43% of passes.eagles on a 2 game winning streak. All trends point to the GSU Eagles.
2:00 ET 2:30 ET 4:00 ET 4:30 ET 8:00 ET 8:00 ET Idaho Georgia State Louisiana-Lafayette Appalachian State Georgia Auburn South Alabama New Mexico State Miami (FL) Clemson Ohio State Wisconsin 47.5-4 59.5-15 49-2.5 54-10 47.5-9.5-6 53 Idaho D has been stout in last 4 games and are up against a low scoring GA St team. Idaho only lost by three points against a 9-2 Troy and can win this. UL Lafayette D is going to have a tough time stopping the Mountaineers offense. ULL features a terrible rush D (ranked 119th). Mountaineers feature an outstanding D that has allowed a combined 16 points in last 2. Take ASU. There is no reason to think that Auburn will once again be able to put up plenty of points at Georgia s expense. At the same time, UGA should be able to run the ball better this time around. The over is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last 7 and 5-1 in their last 6 against the SEC. Tigers 7-2 over last 9. This one goes over total. It looks like the Jaguars have given up on the season, losing 52-0 in their latest. Meanwhile, the Aggies have been frisky and I think they get an two TD win on Saturday. The Clemson defense has been one of the best in the nation. Miami has given up just 18.3 ppg on the year overall, including just 20.0 ppg in their last three games. Big games breed more defense than offense. Game goes Under total. Last year, these teams put up 53 points in their meeting, but they needed OT to get there. The Badgers defense ranks 1st in the nation in yards allowed and 2nd in points allowed, giving up just 12.0 ppg. The Buckeyes are no slouches on defense as they have allowed just 19.8 ppg. Take the Under. CLICK TO LAUNCH THESE POPULAR GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET RESOURCES COLLEGE FOOTBALL LINE SHEET COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUP STATS COLLEGE FOOTBALL ATS LOG SHEETS COLLEGE FOOTBALL POWER RATINGS FREE CFB PICKS CFB TV SCHEDULE CFB TREND REPORT CFB WEATHER IMPACT GAME CFB LAS VEGAS ODDS & SCORES NFL FOOTBALL LINE SHEET NFL FOOTBALL MATCHUP STATS NFL FOOTBALL ATS LOG SHEETS NFL FOOTBALL POWER RATINGS FREE NFL PICKS NFL TV SCHEDULE NFL TREND REPORT NFL WEATHER IMPACT GAME NFL LAS VEGAS ODDS & SCORES