Preseason football polls are like

N C A A CANDLE IN THE WIND Preseason football polls are like tits on a bull. There s not much you can do with them other than to imagine or wonder what if. Because after all, depending on what you conjure up, it really doesn t mean a thing until the games begin. For teams like Alabama, the defending national champion and this year s expected No. 1 college football team in the preseason polls, the prestigious early ranking is simply a declaration that expectations are exceedingly high and that the bulls-eye has been targeted and is now firmly in place. It should be known that preseason No. 1 teams are, for the most part, highly successful. These teams have gone 387-1 SU in all games since 1980. And they re at their best against the spread in games when playing off a pointspread loss, going 101-87-3 ATS over the same span, including a stellar 97-79-3 ATS when favored. They are at their very best, however, in games after having had the rug pulled out from under them as a favorite the previous game PLAY ON any AP Preseason No. 1 college team as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in their previous game. a win percentage of.900 or less on the season and they ratchet up to 15-1 ATS. And for what it s worth, a super subset resides inside this angle that has never lost going 15-0 ATS. Best of all, you can view it on the BETTING TOOLS section contained under the BLACK BOOK link at Playbook.com. Last year witnessed one qualifying play when Ohio State traveled to the Big House in Michigan, off a 17-14 loss as 16.5-point favorites to Michigan State. The Buckeyes carried the torch when they went on to whip the Wolverines, 42-13, as manageable 1-point road chalk. So should the Tide find itself favored this season after having been tripped up as a favorite in its previous game, you know what to do. Because, after all, it was the legendary Elton John who reminded us: Loneliness was tough The toughest role you ever played Hollywood created a superstar And pain was the price you paid. " And I would liked to have known you But I was just a kid Your candle burned out long before Your legend ever did The candle burned out long before Your legend ever did." Had you had the foresight to back teams in this situation, you would own a sparkling 25-15 ATS mark in these games since 1980. FYI: these mad-as-hell favorites are also 36-4 SU in these same games. Put them up against quality opposition (greater than.600) and they shoot up to 17-4 ATS in this role. Better yet, have them enter this same game with 2016 BLACK BOOK PAGE 3 BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW

N C A A CIRCLE OF LIFE " It's the wheel of fortune It's the leap of faith It's the band of hope Till we find our place On the path unwinding In the circle, the circle of life." Changing roles. It s never been easy. And while it s become commonplace in the world in which we live today from 50 Shades of Grey to Caitlyn Jenner it s always an uncomfortable, uphill journey. The same holds true in the world of college football whenever teams are asked to assume a new role from one game to the next. Particularly so when they are suddenly favored after having just pulled an upset as an underdog. In fact, college football conference road favorites off a SU conference home underdog win own a meager 77-104-4 ATS losing mark since 1980. Better yet, our well-oiled machine tells us the best role in which to fade these situation role changers is to PLAY AGAINST any college football conference road favorite off a SU home underdog win versus an opponent off a SU underdog win. That s because these uncomfortable road favorites are a 2-21 ATS losing proposition in this hard-to-handle role change since 1990. Last year witnessed two such plays when Utah State journeyed out as 4-point road chalk at San Diego State after upsetting Boise State, 52-26, as 7.5-point home pups the previous week. The Aggies promptly fell on their face in a 48-14 loss against the Aztecs. San Diego State then went out as 3-point road faves the following week at Colorado State, yet somehow managed to win and cover against the Rams in a rare win. FYI: there is a 0-16 ATS perfect tightener inside this theory, one in which Utah State stumbled in last year. Read all about it on the playbook. com website when you click on the BLACK BOOK SYSTEMS links inside the BETTING TOOLS section. So when it comes to going full circle, remember that the task is much taller than the undertaking. Sir Elton John confirms it with this closing message: Some of us fall by the wayside And some of us soar to the stars And some of us sail through our troubles And some have to live with the scars. Some say eat or be eaten Some say live and let live But all are agreed as they join the stampede You should never take more than you give In the circle of life. BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW PAGE 6 2016 BLACK BOOK

ATLANTA FALCONS NFC South 2015: 8-8 SU / ATS HC: Dan Quinn (2nd yr: 8-8 SU / ATS) www.atlantafalcons.com SITE/OPPONENT DATE OWL GAME NO. MRT TAMPA BAY at Oakland at New Orleans CAROLINA at Denver at Seattle SAN DIEGO GREEN BAY at Tampa Bay at Philadelphia OPEN DATE ARIZONA KANSAS CITY at Los Angeles SAN FRANCISCO at Carolina NEW ORLEANS 9/11 9/18 9/26 10/2 10/9 6 10/23 10/30 11/3 11/13 11/20 11/27 12/4 12/11 12/18 12/24 1/1 17-2 15-4 4-12 14-4 12-6 5-11 17-2 3-1 ATS Game One 6-1 ATS Game Two 3-0 O/U Game Three 1-5 ATS Game Four 1-6 O/U Game Five 1-4 O/U Game Six 1-4 O/U Game Seven 0-5 O/U Game Eight 1-4 SUATS Game Nine 0-4 ATS Game Ten 1-6 O/U Game Eleven 3-1 ATS Game Twelve 5-2 ATS Game Thirteen 7-1 SU Game Fourteen 4-0 ATS Game Fifteen 0-4 O/U Game Sixteen Monday Thursday/Saturday 2016 Opponents Combined 2015 Win-Loss Pct:.560 (#1 most difficult schedule) TOP DRAFT PICK SS Keanu Neal (Florida) SIGNED: C Alex Mack (Browns) QB Matt Schaub (Ravens) G Michael Huey (Chargers) CB DeMarcus Van Dyke (Vikings) WR Aldrick Robinson (Ravens) 11-0 home vs <.500 non-div opp off DD SU win 9-0.500 > off SUATS loss vs.333 < div opp off DD ATS loss 8-0 RD s vs opp off SU home fav loss w/ revenge 7-0 away vs.500 > opp off BB SU losses 6-0.500 > away off DD SU loss w/ revenge vs.500 > opp 0-13 HF s off DD SUATS home win 0-12 home off 3 ATS wins vs.500 > opp 0-10 home off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SU loss 0-9 dogs > 3 pts off BB away vs non-div opp 0-8 <.500 HD s after score 30 > pts NOTES Off DD Win Off Win Off SUATS Win Off BB SUATS Wins 20-34 5-21 9-17 10-12 17-29 2-15 35-35 17-16 14-16 9-9-1 27-29 10-10 33-35 16-23 16-21 10-10 28-31 3-7 21-34 6-14 7-12 9-11 16-27 Off DD Loss Off Fav Loss Off SUATS Loss Off BB SUATS Losses 33-34 12-16 16-16 13-10 26-26 5-13 29-21 13-14 16-14 26-19 8-11 25-23 8-8 10-8 11-10 20-20 3-7 36-33 18-22 21-22 7-7 31-26 11-17 With Revenge Vs Revenge Vs Division Vs Non-Division Opponent Off SU Win Opponent Off SU Loss 38-32 21-36 23-26 37-42 29-33 25-35 34-27 35-32 23-25 46-36 35-31 29-25 29-20 33-40 25-20 37-41 23-22 36-36 42-40 22-28 22-30 43-39 32 18-25 FUN FACT: A 2010 study based on 4 broadcasts says a standard NFL game features just 10 minutes and 43 seconds of action (commercials account for nearly 60 minutes of the 3-hour affairs). 2016 BLACK BOOK PAGE 13 ATLANTA FALCONS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AFC East 2015: 13-5 SU / 8-8-2 ATS HC: Bill Belichick (17th yr: 209-78 SU / 159-121-7 ATS) www.patriots.com SITE/OPPONENT DATE OWL GAME NO. MRT at Arizona MIAMI HOUSTON BUFFALO at Cleveland CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh at Buffalo OPEN DATE SEATTLE at San Francisco at Ny Jets LOS ANGELES BALTIMORE at Denver NY JETS at Miami 9/11 9/18 9/22 10/2 10/9 6 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27 12/4 12/12 12/18 12/24 1/1 14-4 9-8 8-8 3-13 12-5 8-8 5-11 10-6 5-11 15-4 10-6 11-1 SU Game One 1-3 O/U Game Two 3-1 ATs Game Three 9-1 ATS Game Four 4-1 O/U Game Five 9-1 SU Game Six 1-4 ATS Game Seven 4-0 SUATS Game Eight 7-0 O/U Game Nine 11-2 SU Game Ten 5-1 ATS Game Eleven 1-9 ATS Game Twelve 9-0 SU Game Thirteen 5-1 O/U Game Fourteen 12-1 SU Game Fifteen 6-2 ATS Game Sixteen Monday Thursday/Saturday 2016 Opponents Combined 2015 Win-Loss Pct:.524 (#9 most difficult schedule) TOP DRAFT PICKS CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama) SIGNED: LB Shea McClellan (Bears) WR Nate Washington (Texans) WR Chris Hogan (Bills) DE Chris Long (Rams) G Jonathan Cooper (Cardinals) 13-0 off SU loss vs opp off BB SUATS wins 9-0 w/ revenge vs.500 > opp off SUATS loss 8-0 off SUATS div win vs non-div opp off SU win 7-0 off BB SUATS wins vs div opp off BB away 7-0 dogs off 3+ SU wins vs opp off SU loss 0-15 favs off DD ATS loss vs <.500 opp off DD SU loss 0-8 favs aft score 40 > pts vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins 0-8 home vs <.500 opp off BB dog roles w/ revenge 0-7 RF s off SU fav loss vs <.500 opp off DD SU loss 0-7.500 > off SUATS away loss vs <.500 opp off away NOTES Off DD Win Off Win Off SUATS Win Off BB SUATS Wins 58-39 38-29 33-26 14-5 47-30 22-11 47-46 33-32 28-23 6-6 30-31 20-19 84-72 57-56 50-43 12-7 62-51 20-18 24-17 16-9 13-8 18-12 Off DD Loss Off Fav Loss Off SUATS Loss Off BB SUATS Losses 19-17 3-6 8-4 9-9 15-14 3-4 25-7 6-2 11-2 16-6 24-7 5-0 23-21 4-7 8-6 15-13 20-18 3-4 18-3 5-1 10-0 9-2 17-3 5-0 With Revenge Vs Revenge Vs Division Vs Non-Division Opponent Off SU Win Opponent Off SU Loss 30-19 50-41 27-24 53-36 42-35 35-21 21-10 54-46 31-19 44-38 43-33 29-20 30-24 82-73 42-37 70-61 57-58 23-21 21-6 22-16 15-6 28-16 28-14 14-6 FUN FACT: The Patriots are the only franchise to have scored three touchdowns in less than one minute. 2016 BLACK BOOK PAGE 31 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 2015: 14-1 SU / 7-7 ATS Head Coach: Nick Saban (10th year: 105-18 SU / 63-51-1 ATS) www.rolltide.com 32-36 34-17 53 14-6 23-25 27-12 42-40 9-3 Off DD Win 24-28 28-16 47-44 9-6 Off Win 1-4 0-1 2-5 0-0 Off SUATS Win 17-19 17-12 30-33 7-4 Off BB SUATS Wins 8-4 12-10 3-2 8-17 5-11 11-23 5-10 2-7 3-4 5-8 2-5 Off DD Loss 3-10 2-2 3-11 3-2 Off Fav Loss 3-7 3-6 5-11 2-4 Off SUATS Loss 5-13 5-7 8-17 5-7 Off BB SUATS Losses 2-3 3-2 5-3 1-2 With Revenge 10-10 10-8 17-14 10-9 Vs Revenge 18-23 24-19 12-10 5-5 Vs Conference 27-35 36-26 50-50 16-14 Vs Non-Conference 17-22 3-3 31-32 4-2 Opp Off SU Win 27-31 26-18 45-48 1 Opp Off SU Loss 13-19 13-10 24-25 2-7 10-0 vs opp off BB SUATS wins (last as dog) 7-0 as conf HF s vs opp off SU loss 7-0 off BB ATS losses vs conf opp 7-0 as RD s vs undefeated opp 0-8 as non-conf favs 31 > pts 0-7 after allow 28 > pts vs.800 < opp 0-7 as HF s 21 < pts vs <.400 opp 0-4 vs.750 < opp w/ rest vs Usc* W KENTUCKY at Mississippi KENT ST KENTUCKY at Arkansas at Tennessee TEXAS A&M at Lsu MISSISSIPPI ST CHATTANOOGA AUBURN 9/3 9/17 9/24 10/8 5 10/22 11/19 11/26 *@AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX) 8-6 12-2 10-3 5-7 9-3 7-1 ATS Game One 12-0 SU Game Two 1-4 ATS Game Three 1-3 ATS Game Five 5-0 ATS Game Seven 3-0 ATS Game Nine 1-4 ATS Game Ten 8-0 SU Game Eleven 4-1 ATS Game Twelve SEC West APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS 2015: 11-2 SU / 5-7 ATS Head Coach: Scott Satterfield (4th year: 22-15 SU / 9-12-1 ATS) www.appstatesports.com 2-5 4-3 2-1 1-3 4-1 3-5 2-0 Off DD Win 2-4 2-3 4-6 0-1 Off Win 1-0 1-0 1-0 1-0 Off SUATS Win 2-4 2-0 3-4 1-0 Off BB SUATS Wins 1-2 0-0 1-2 0-0 3-0 as dogs 18 < pts 3-0 away after allow 35 > pts 3-0 as RF s vs opp w/ revenge 0-4 off shutout win 0-3 home vs opp w/ revenge 0-3 off DD SU win vs non-conf opp 0-1 3-1 2-0 1-2 0-1 1-0 0-0 1-1 Off DD Loss 0-1 2-0 2-0 0-1 Off Fav Loss 0-0 1-1 1-0 0-1 Off SUATS Loss 0-1 2-1 2-0 0-2 Off BB SUATS Losses 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-1 With Revenge 1-0 0-1 1-1 0-0 Vs Revenge 0-3 3-0 3-3 0-0 Vs Conference 2-5 6-2 5-5 3-2 Vs Non-Conference 0-1 1-3 1-3 0-2 Opp Off SU Win 1-3 3-2 1-3 3-3 Opp Off SU Loss 1-3 4-2 5-5 0-0 at Tennessee OLD DOMINION MIAMI FLA at Akron GEORGIA ST at UL-Lafayette IDAHO at Ga Southern TEXAS ST at Troy UL-MONROE at New Mexico St 9/1 9/17 9/24 2 10/22 10/27 11/19 11/26 5-7 2-11 6-0 SU Game One 6-1 SU Game Two 1-4-1 ATS Game Three 0-4 ATS Game Four 1-4 ATS Game Five 9-0 ATS Game Seven 4-1 SU Game Eight 0-6 ATS Game Nine 1-5 SUATS Game Ten 4-0 ATS Game Eleven 0-4 ATS Game Twelve Sun Belt 2016 BLACK BOOK PAGE 47 ALABAMA APPALACHIAN STATE

CINCINNATI BEARCATS 2015: SU / 6-6 ATS Head Coach: Tommy Tuberville (4th year: 25-14 SU / 18-18-1 ATS) www.gobearcats.com AAC East TENN-MARTIN at Purdue HOUSTON MIAMI OHIO USF at Connecticut E CAROLINA at Temple BYU at Ucf MEMPHIS at Tulsa CLEMSON TIGERS 2015: 14-1 SU / -1 ATS Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (8th year*: 75-27 SU / 52-41-1 ATS) www.clemsontigers.com *Coached 7 games in 2008 ACC Atlantic 10-0 away vs <.500 conf opp 8-0 off DD ATS win vs conf opp off DD SU loss 7-0 home w/ revenge vs opp off BB SUATS wins Visitor in Temple series is 6-0 0-10 as dogs 10 > pts vs opp off SU loss 0-8 as favs 9 < pts in 1st of BB RG s 0-8 away vs non-conf opp L4Y 0-6 as HF s off BB SUATS wins at Auburn TROY SC STATE at Georgia Tech LOUISVILLE at Boston College NC STATE at Florida St SYRACUSE PITTSBURGH at Wake Forest S CAROLINA 9/1 9/15 9/24 10/8 10/22 10/29 11/18 11/25 7-4 2-10 13-1 5-7 10-4 0-12 10-1 SU Game One 1-6 ATS Game Two 4-1 SU Game Three 8-2 SU Game Five 9-2 SU Game Six 4-0-1 ATS Game Seven 7-1 SU Game Eight 3-1 ATS Game Nine 7-2 SU Game Ten 6-2 SU Game Eleven 9-2 SU Game Twelve 10-0 home off SU dog win vs conf opp 9-0 vs <.666 opp off SU dog win 7-0 as dogs > 2 pts after score 35 > pts 4-0 off BB SUATS losses 0-9 off SU fav loss vs opp off SU loss 0-6 as RF s off DD ATS loss Visitor in Georgia Tech series is 0-6 0-4 as HD s 2 > pts 9/3 9/17 9/22 10/7 5 10/29 11/19 11/26 7-4 10-3 6-1 SU Game One 6-0 SU Game Two 4-1 SU Game Three 4-1 ATS Game Four 5-0 SUATS Game Five 7-0 SU Game Six 6-1 SU Game Seven 9-1 SU Game Eight 6-1 SU Game Nine 4-1 SU Game Ten 7-1 SU Game Eleven 1-6 ATS Game Twelve 22-23 34-25 34-38 22-19 9-15 24-9 20-25 13-6 Off DD Win 16-11 23-17 26-21 13-10 Off Win 7-5 5-5 10-7 2-4 Off SUATS Win 17-16 23-10 29-22 13-10 Off BB SUATS Wins 6-9 12-2 13-10 7-3 22-10 12-15 18-16 1 8-2 6-5 9-2 5-5 Off DD Loss 12-4 8-7 10-4 Off Fav Loss 5-3 4-9 4-10 5-2 Off SUATS Loss 14-6 9-12 12-12 12-7 Off BB SUATS Losses 4-1 5-2 4-1 5-2 With Revenge 20-12 1 15-11 18-10 Vs Revenge 17-16 24-21 19-30 11-8 Vs Conference 29-27 35-20 37-32 25-15 Vs Non-Conference 20-8 12-22 20-24 15-16 Opp Off SU Win 28-14 23-22 24-25 28-19 Opp Off SU Loss 17-19 25-17 30-28 10-10 28-30 29-23 45-47 19-12 17-19 18-19 28-35 12-5 Off DD Win 23-19 22-18 37-33 11-6 Off Win 4-2 5-3 5-4 5-2 Off SUATS Win 19-15 20-11 29-25 13-5 Off BB SUATS Wins 8-8 8-7 13-16 4-1 19-12 7-14 15-19 10-9 5-4 3-4 6-4 4-4 Off DD Loss 6-5 2-7 5-9 6-4 Off Fav Loss 3-7 3-8 3-12 4-4 Off SUATS Loss 9-9 5-14 8-17 10-8 Off BB SUATS Losses 4-4 3-2 5-3 4-3 With Revenge 19-15 8-10 16-14 11-12 Vs Revenge 17-20 19-25 28-36 11-9 Vs Conference 31-32 32-31 42-47 22-16 Vs Non-Conference 17-14 5-7 20-23 Opp Off SU Win 20-29 21-16 28-33 19-16 Opp Off SU Loss 22-13 15-21 30-33 10-5 CINCINNATI CLEMSON PAGE 56 2016 BLACK BOOK

RIVERA, Ron PANTHERS Carolina 2011-15 w/revenge vs Revenge Opp Opp vs Division vs Non-Div Best Role Worst Role 2016 PLAYBOOK NFL COACHES LEAGUE Records reflect career in NFL as a head coach. All records are ATS entering the 2016 season. 27-16-1 22-19 27-19 22-17 29-18 20-18 28-21 18-15 19-11 10-7 24-15 23-18 18-12 31-24 HF: 19-9 RF: 8-9 RYAN, Rex BILLS NYJ 2009-14, Buffalo 2015 31-27 31-28-3 28-29 30-28 w/revenge 32-28-2 vs Revenge 26-29 27-25-3 11-11-1 27-29 13-14 Opp 32-31-1 Opp 21-23-2 vs Division 24-18-1 vs Non-Div 34-39-2 Best Role HD: 11-6 Worst Role HF: 16-21 TOMLIN, Mike STEELERS Pittsburgh 2007-15 w/revenge vs Revenge Opp Opp vs Division vs Non-Div Best Role Worst Role 43-33-2 33-39-2 53-59-1 23-15-4 25-25-4 51-49-1 42-48-4 24-27-3 31-21 8-7 42-30-3 30-39-1 32-23-3 44-51-2 HD: 7-1 RF: 17-26 ZIMMER, Mike VIKINGS Minnesota 2014-15 w/revenge vs Revenge Opp Opp vs Division vs Non-Div Best Role Worst Role 12-5 13-4 15-5 15-5 9-3 12-5 7-2 11-3 5-1 9-2 14-6 7-5 17-4 RD: 10-3 No Neg Roles * BRUCE ARIANS: Coached 12 games of 2012 season with Colts JEFF FISHER: Coached final 6 games of 1994 season with Titans JASON GARRETT: Coached final 8 games of 2010 season with Cowboys CHUCK PAGANO: Coached 5 games of 2012 season with Colts SEAN PAYTON: Suspended for 2012 season with Saints For complete NCAA Coaches League data, organized by college conference affiliation, visit our website at www.playbook.com! PROJECTED 2016 STARTING NFL QUARTERBACKS Arizona Cardinals CARSON PALMER Atlanta Falcons MATT RYAN Baltimore Ravens JOE FLACCO Buffalo Bills TYROD TAYLOR Carolina Panthers CAM NEWTON Chicago Bears JAY CUTLER Cincinnati Bengals ANDY DALTON Cleveland Browns ROBERT GRIFFIN III Dallas Cowboys TONY ROMO Denver Broncos MARK SANCHEZ Detroit Lions MATTHEW STAFFORD Green Bay Packerd AARON RODGERS Houston Texans BROCK OSWEILER Indianapolis Colts ANDREW LUCK Jacksonville Jaguars BLAKE BORTLES Kansas City Chiefs ALEX SMITH NOTES Los Angeles Rams NICK FOLES Miami Dolphins RYAN TANNEHILL Minnesota Vikings TEDDY BRIDGEWATER New England Patriots TOM BRADY New Orleans Saints DREW BREES New York Giants ELI MANNING New York Jets RYAN FITZPATRICK Oakland Raiders DEREK CARR Philadelphia Eagles SAM BRADFORD Pittsburgh Steelers BEN ROETHLISBERGER San Diego Chargers PHILIP RIVERS San Francisco 49ers COLIN KAEPERNICK Seattle Seahawks RUSSELL WILSON Tampa Bay Buccaneers JAMEIS WINSTON Tennessee Titans MARCUS MARIOTA Washington Redskins KIRK COUSINS NFL COACHES LEAGUE / NOTES PAGE 114 2016 BLACK BOOK