weekly football tip sheet

weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 21 NFL Conference Championship Playoffs

Football Weekly INDEX Rotation Schedule...1 Football Line Moves...2 NFL VI Picks...3 Recent NFL Conference Championship Playoff Trends...4 NFC Championship...8 AFC Championship...9 WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY It can be argued that the league s four best quarterbacks find themselves still in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy, after Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers survived the divisional round of the NFL playoffs to advance to the conference title tilts this coming weekend. What s more is that barring injury, this will be the 13th time in the last 14 seasons that the AFC quarterback in the eventual Super Bowl quarterback from the AFC will be Peyton Manning, Brady, or Roethlisberger. It is clear that the importance of the QB position in the NFL is as big as it has ever been. How will that affect the wagering action on Championship Sunday? We re here in issue #21 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly to help you find that answer. Hopefully many of you read the popular Divisional Round Playoff Trends feature article from last week, as Bay s upset of Dallas continued a trend of struggles for #1 seeds in the NFC. Of course, that was just one tidbit from a well-received feature article we delivered last week concerning the divisional round. As promised, we will continue the round-by-round series so make sure not overlook the Conference Championship Trends Article in this week s issue. Lines were very active last week and bettors were pumping the money into their favorite establishments. Word out of Vegas is that the betting public hammered the books last week, resulting in seven-figure losses for some franchises. After a winning weekend, the activity only figures to increase over the next few weeks as sportsbooks always offer a plethora of extra betting options for these last few high stakes games on the NFL calendar. Be sure to visit your favorite book and look what they have available before finalizing your action for the weekend. If you re in the market for a new place to play at, be sure to check out the highly rated list of sponsors we have supporting Vegas Insider. At this point, we are now down to the Final Four of the NFL playoff proceedings, and this year s Super Bowl matchup will be decided this week on Championship Sunday. As such, this week s entire Vegas Insider Football Weekly is devoted to handicapping the two conference championship games. From picks, stat matchups, strength ratings, and complete editorial analysis, we have nearly every angle covered. In the NFC, Atlanta is favored over Bay, while in the AFC, the Patriots are expected back in the Super Bowl as favorites over the Steelers. Browse to our picks page to see where our experts are leaning for the games. They have vowed to get down to work after a brutal performance in the divisional round. Of course, when the public wins big, our guys typically don t, and they have succeeded in general for year because of that logic. Good luck on the Championship Sunday action! 1 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly FOOTBALL LINE MOVES It is championship Sunday in the NFL and we are all over all the latest line moves for your consideration. Here we look at both aspects of the contests and break it down for your determination. Make sure to review all the latest line adjustments, as we continue our best-ever season for early free picks at Vegas Insider. NFL (311) GREEN BAY at (312) ATLANTA 3:05 ET FOX Atlanta was sent out as a -4 betting favorite over Bay and by Tuesday was bumped up to -5. The thinking of course is despite how great Aaron Rodgers and the Bay offense has been, the Packers depleted defense, especially the secondary, will not be able to contain Matt Ryan and all the offensive weapons the Falcons have. While Rodgers and Bay is a fascinating story, hard to find fault with this line of thinking unless the Dirty Birds start turning the ball over, which appears unlikely since they have one turnover in last five games. The total has been bouncing around after opening at 60. It was surprising to see the total down to 59 at most sportsbooks Monday morning considering the last game was 33-32 shootout. However, 24 hours later the number was elevated to 61, which at least in theory makes sense. Looking at the circumstances closer, Atlanta is 14-2-1 OVER this season, 9-0 OVER at the Georgia Dome and 10-0 OVER as a favorite, all rather impressive numbers. In reviewing Bay s numbers, we find similar circumstances, just over a longer stretch of time. The Packers are 19-5 OVER after four or more consecutive wins against the spread and 11-3 OVER off two or more consecutive OVER s. VIFW Take Play Over, Lean Atlanta NFL (313) PITTSBURGH at (314) NEW ENGLAND 6:40 ET CBS Comparatively speaking, the AFC championship has not had as much noise. The total was released at 50 and about half the sportsbooks checked were at 50.5 or 51, with the balance of them still at the same starting point. Looking deeper into the wagers placed in the first part of the week, it is virtually dead even, with bets placed equally on the OVER and UNDER. It will be very intriguing to follow this since both teams have been playing very good defense in assembling their lengthy winning streaks, which has us thinking a lower score. This is backed up with Pittsburgh being 15-4 UNDER as a road club and 6-0 UNDER away off a road victory. As far as the games itself against the spread, New England was listed at -6. Again when reviewing the books, the majority were holding steady and the rest has moved the Steelers down to +5.5. The thought process since the beginning of the season has been if there was one AFC team which could derail the Patriots from making the Super Bowl it was Pittsburgh. What was not counted on from the start was how good the New England defense would become, as they have retooled themselves to have more speed. While some might complain the Pats have only played six games versus playoff teams, if the point spread is the great equalizer, than 14-3 ATS is awfully impressive. VIFW Take New England covers and Under Records NFL Best Bets - 17-15 NFL Leans - 31-22 College Best Bets 23-19 College Leans - 52-29-2 As a special bonus, from sportsbook.ag, we have prop bets you can make on the outcomes of both title tilts and the odds that go along with them if you are the adventuresome bettor. Bay vs. Atlanta Falcons Win By 01-03 Points +600 Falcons Win By 04-06 Points +850 Falcons Win By 07-10 Points +650 Falcons Win By 11-13 Points +1450 Falcons Win By 14-17 Points +900 Falcons Win By 18-21 Points +1200 Falcons Win By 22 or More +475 Packers Win By 01-03 Points +900 Packers Win By 04-06 Points +1300 Packers Win By 07-10 Points +1000 Packers Win By 11-13 Points +2300 Packers Win By 14-17 Points +1500 Packers Win By 18-21 Points +2100 Packers Win By 22 or More +1000 Pittsburgh vs. New England Patriots Win By 01-03 Points +550 Patriots Win By 04-06 Points +800 Patriots Win By 07-10 Points +550 Patriots Win By 11-13 Points +1300 Patriots Win By 14-17 Points +850 Patriots Win By 18-21 Points +1100 Patriots Win By 22 or More +450 Steelers Win By 01-03 Points +950 Steelers Win By 04-06 Points +1450 Steelers Win By 07-10 Points +1100 Steelers Win By 11-13 Points +2600 Steelers Win By 14-17 Points +1800 Steelers Win By 18-21 Points +2700 Steelers Win By 22 or More +1450 2 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly NFL VI PICKS VI Jim 102-78 (57%) 25-28 (47%)* VI Jason 109-71 (61%) 33-20 (62%)* VI Doug 95-85 (53%) 32-22 (59%)* Power Ratings 82-98 (46%) Effective Strength 84-96 (47%) Forecaster 81-99 (45%) Sunday, January 22, 2017 - (311) GREEN BAY at (312) ATLANTA (-5) Bay* Bay* Atlanta Bay Atlanta Sunday, January 22, 2017 - (311) GREEN BAY at (312) ATLANTA - TOTAL (61) Bay Bettors Ratings 86-94 (48%) Bay Consensus 91-89 (51%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) UNDER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER Bay Sunday, January 22, 2017 - (313) PITTSBURGH at (314) NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) Pittsburgh New England* New England* New England New England New England Pittsburgh New England Sunday, January 22, 2017 - (313) PITTSBURGH at (314) NEW ENGLAND - TOTAL (50) UNDER* OVER UNDER* UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER VI Jim says In order for a favorite to cover a game when the total is in the 60 s against a quarterback that is on fire, you would have to assume that they would need to benefit from turnovers. That could be a problem for Atlanta, because Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw his first interception in eight game last weekend. I mentioned last week that it appeared he had that Look in his eye. I think that was confirmed last Sunday at Dallas. Now his team faces a similar line scenario against a Falcons defense that in terms of body of work was significantly weaker than the Cowboys. Ironically, Bay has actually fared well on the defensive side of the ball against elite offenses like Atlanta s: HC Mike McCarthy is 11-3 ATS vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27+ PPG in the second half of the season as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 28.1, OPPONENT 24.6. That point is clearly being overlooked and it seems almost inconceivable that the Falcons could cover 5-points if they only score around 24. Furthermore, road teams that score 20+ PPG in conference title games are on a 16-3-1 ATS run. I d be shocked if Bay doesn t get that with as hot as they are with 30+ in six straight, and after Seattle scored 20 on Atlanta last week. Packers are the play here. VI Jason says Everyone will focus on the quarterback matchup in this game, but I think the biggest difference in the AFC title matchup between New England and Pittsburgh is the defenses. The Steelers have been good on that end, the Patriots have been GREAT. Since allowing 31 points and 420 yards in their last loss to Seattle on November 13th, New England has allowed 12.9 PPG and 281.9 yards per game. Those averages would easily be the league s best over the course of the season. Then of course it s the history of the Patriots, Brady & Belichick that we have to consider. On average, Belichicks teams cover two out of every three games as favorites in the current range: Belichick is 33-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.6, OPPONENT 17.2. The Pats have also been very effective when getting on a roll defensively: Belichick is 24-9 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. Finally, back to Brady, whose teams have scored 33.2 PPG on Pittsburgh in five matchups since 2010. It all adds up to another AFC title for New England, who takes it 31-21. VI Doug says The AFC title game features two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Ben Roethlisberger and Ton Brady. While this alone should account for lots of scoring, I will be going the other way. Since giving up 28.2 PPG in four-game losing streak, the Pittsburgh defense has really turned it around, having the most sacks of any team at 30 and permitting 16.5 PPG. By now, we are all aware the New England defense might give up a few yards, but once the opposing team reaches the Patriots 40-yard line, that is when it really gets tough for the opposition and they have conceded a NFL-best 15.6 PPG on the season and lowered that figure to 12.8 PPG during current sevengame winning streak. With the Steelers 10-2 ATS as underdogs and how both clubs are playing defense, really prefer the UNDER 50. VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 3

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 4 RECENT NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF TRENDS Over the last two weeks, we have compiled trends from the wildcard and divisional rounds of the NFL playoffs. The conference title games are next up, and the first and foremost thing that is noticeable when analyzing the recent conference championship games is that scoring is down, despite an inflation of posted totals. Seven of the 10 conference title tilts over the last five seasons have gone UNDER their posted numbers. That is the highest percentage of UNDER plays in any 5-year span in this round in the L20 years. In fact, this trend of UNDER s actually reversed a major trend of OVER s (15-4-1 prior 10 years). On totals averaging 47.3, games have produced 45.9 PPG. The two games on Sunday also have very high totals, so we will see if that trend continues. I can assure you however, that nowadays, teams don t get to this point without strong defenses. Another interesting point of note is that four of the last six conference championship winners were teams that won but failed to cover their pointspreads in the divisional round games. All four of this weekend s participants covered their pointspreads last week so this angle won t be in play. The matchups are certainly intriguing for this weekend, with top quarterbacks on display. We all know of the rich playoff histories of Ben Rothlisberger (Steelers), Tom Brady (Patriots), and Aaron Rodgers (Packers) but now Matt Ryan of the NFC top-seeded Falcons is trying to build his resume as well and is a frontrunner for the NFL s MVP award. Using similar methodologies to that of the past two weeks, here are some of the notable trends and systems that have developed in recent conference championship game action. General Conference Championship Playoff ATS Trends The OUTRIGHT winner has covered the pointspread in all but four of the L30 conference championship playoff games. The most recent team to not do that was Seattle, two years ago, when it came from behind to beat Bay 28-22 in overtime as 8.5-point favorites. Hosts are on a 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS run in conference championship play, reversing a trend that saw visitors go 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in the prior three seasons. Is this a case of 3-year patterns due for a change in 2017? Or a continuation of home dominance? There have been nine road favorites in the L22 years of the conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-3 SU & 5-3-1 ATS. Most recently, New England lost this past season in Denver, 20-18, as a 3-point favorite. No road favorites will be in play for 2017. Beware of large home favorites in the conference championship round, at least in terms of laying the points, as those closing as 7-point favorites or more are 9-5 SU but just 4-10 ATS since 99. Neither game figures to get that high but you never know. Alternatively, home favorites in the -3 to -6.5 range have been highly successful at both winning and covering their respective pointspreads, with a record of 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS since 05. Those games have also gone OVER the total at an 8-2-1 rate in that span. The last 12 times that a home team has won & covered the pointspread in the conference title games, that game has also gone OVER the total at a 8-4 rate. In inter-divisional conference championship games of this playoff round, the favorites are on a 3-1 SU & ATS surge. Of course, with all eight division winners playing last weekend, this was not even a possibility any longer. Road teams are 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) in the L7 NFC title games. Home teams are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the L8 AFC clashes. Of the teams in the AFC & NFC Championship contests this year, New England is making its sixth straight appearance and is 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in its L7 tries. The Steelers are 3-2 SU & ATS in AFC title games since 02, and went OVER the total in all five games. Atlanta lost both the 05 & 13 NFC title games SU & ATS, while Bay is playing in its fourth NFC title contest under Mike McCarthy, going 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS in the prior three. Conference Championship Trends by Seed Number #1-seeds have been the host teams in 35 of the L48 conference championship games, and have gone 24-11 SU & 18-17 ATS in those games. #1 seeds have won the last six games. Only two teams that were not #1 or #2 seeds have hosted conference championship games in the L20 years, and both won outright and ATS. Indianapolis did so in the AFC in 2007 and Arizona followed that up two years later for the NFC. #2 seeds hosting conference championship games are just 2-6 SU & 2-5-1 ATS since 97. Wildcard teams, or those seeded #5 or #6, have gone just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS dating back to 96 in the conference title games, including just 1-5 SU & ATS the L7 seasons. There is actually a misconception of how successful these teams have been of late, when only Bay of 2011 was able to advance past this round to the Super Bowl. Recall that San Francisco last fit this bill in 2014 and lost at Seattle. #4 seeds are on a run of 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in conference title game play since 98, but most recently, Indianapolis was THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly walloped 45-7 by New England in 2015 in the Deflategate Game. Conference Championship Trends regarding Totals Overall, since 93, OVER the total is 27-20-1 in the conference championship playoff games. However, there has been a strak difference when you consider conference breakdown lately, as the last five AFC games went UNDER while NFC contests are on a 10-4-1 OVER surge. Breaking down the totals for this weekend s games based upon ranges, the seven of the L8 conference title tilts since 03 with totals more than 42 but less than 48 have gone OVER. Five of the L7 games with extremely high totals, 48 or more, have gone UNDER the total. Both games for this season figure to fall into that trend. FOLLOWING THE LINE/TOTAL MOVES For the last two weeks we have shown that sharp bettors have been in fact sharp when it comes to postseason games. For the conference championship round, that pattern continues. Following the line moves throughout the week heading up to the big games would have netted you a record of 11-4 ATS since 05. Last year, neither game qualified, as the opening lines of -3 stuck throughout the week. Early action for this week indicates that bettors are favoring Bay at presstime, and the AFC lines seems to have settled at 5.5. Still, be sure to follow the moves throughout the rest of the week up until kickoff. Bettors have been hot with totals recently as well, going 8-4 when moving the totals in the L12 conference championship games. Early action finds bettors looking for an UNDER in the AFC game and an OVER in the NFC game on Sunday. Stats generated in Conference championship Playoff Games The conference championship playoff round has demonstrated similar benchmarks to the wildcard round when it comes to the relationship between scoring points and winning. Like the wildcard round s 20-point magic mark, the figure for the conference championships has been 21. Home teams that have scored 21 points or less are just 5-15 SU & 2-17-1 ATS since 93. However, Denver did win a year ago against this trend, 20-18 over the Patriots. Alternatively, those home teams that topped the 21-point mark were 25-3 SU & 21-7 ATS. If you recall, the benchmark for the divisional round was a little higher at 27 points. The magic point total for road teams in conference championship playoff action has proven to be 20 points, as they are 13-7 SU & 16-3-1 ATS when they reach that mark since 98. When scoring less than 20 points, the record of the road teams dropped dramatically to 2-20 SU & 5-17 ATS since 95. Teams that gained more first downs in their respective conference championship games are 9-4 SU & 7-6 ATS over the L7 years in those games but just 13-16 ATS since 02. Teams that controlled the time of possession are on a 19-7 SU & 21-5 ATS run in the conference championship playoffs since 03. Conference championship playoff teams that gained more yards rushing in those games are 19-7 SU & ATS over the L13 seasons. Strangely, at the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a conference championship playoff game are just 13-13 SU & ATS in that same span. Putting up big passing numbers in conference championship playoff games has also proven a key ingredient to success, since those teams are 17-11 SU & 19-9 ATS since 02. Even more importantly, teams that gained more yards per pass attempt in a conference championship playoff game are 19-9 SU & ATS during that same stretch. Going back to 03, teams that turn the ball over fewer times in a conference championship are on an impressive 23-2 ATS run. The current win streak stands at 10 games against the spread, including last year s NFC title game in which the Cardinals turned the ball over seven times in a 40-15 loss at Carolina. Teams Regular Season Won-Lost Record Trends Unlike the last two weeks, there has proven to be only minimal differences when it comes to the success rates of conference championship teams based upon their regular season records, or the comparison between their record and their opponent s. For instance, here are the records of home teams based broken up by regular season wins: Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season were 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS, home teams with 12 or 13 regular season wins were 13-8 SU & 10-11 ATS, and those hosts that won 11 or fewer games were 2-1 SU & ATS. Road teams that won 12 or more games in the regular season were 2-9 SU & 5-6 ATS in their conference title games, road teams with 11 regular season wins were slightly better at 4-8 SU & 6-6 ATS, and ironically, those visitors that won the fewest games, 10 or less, had the best outright mark at 4-3 SU & ATS. Home teams that won at least two more games during the regular season than their conference championship playoff opponent are 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS since 02. When just one regular season win separated two conference championship playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS over the L8 seasons. Teams Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are on a 12-6 SU & 10-8 ATS run over the L9 conference championship playoff seasons. Atlanta & New England hold these edges in 2017. The ability to run the football has been VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 5

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 6 much-overrated when it comes to conference championship success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 11-19 SU & ATS since 02. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush are just 5-11 SU & 6-10 ATS over the L7 seasons. Denver & Carolina both won last year though. This year s regular season edge holders were Atlanta & New England. Passing yardage has meant much more than rushing yardage in terms of conference championship playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going 18-10 SU & 16-12 ATS over the L14 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams were a bit worse at 17-11 SU & 15-13 ATS. That said, all four road teams held edges over the L2 seasons but lost outright. Again, Atlanta & New England own edges in both categories. Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to conference championship playoff success, going 15-11 SU & 13-13 ATS over the L12 seasons. The Falcons & Patriots will try to extend this trend in 2016. The offensive yards per play statistic has also proven important, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are just 16-8 SU & 14-10 ATS over the L12 years on championship Sunday. Again, count the Falcons & Patriots as the beneficiaries of this statistical trend. Atlanta was the league s top team in this statistic. Like the divisional round and unlike the wildcard round, offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 11-11 SU & 9-13 ATS in the conference championship playoff round since 05. The offensive turnovers statistic provides the handicapper zero edge, since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are exactly 11-12 SU & 10-13 ATS since 04 in conference championship games. Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a hot streak of 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in the L16 conference championship games. Count Bay and New England as the teams hoping to continue this pattern this weekend. Teams Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 9-4 SU & ATS dating back to 10 in conference championship games, providing a nice edge to handicappers. Count Bay and New England as the teams hoping to continue this pattern this weekend. Defensive rushing yards has been somewhat significant when it comes to handicapping conference championship action, as has yards PER rush defense, as teams with an edge in that stat are 15-13 SU & 17-11 ATS since 03. For 2017, Bay & New England boast the better rush defenses. Conference championship playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 16-12 SU & ATS over the L14 seasons in this round. Interestingly, unlike other stats, this is a statistical edge most often for the road team, 17 times in those 28 contests. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are also 16-12 SU & ATS. Atlanta & New England are the edge holders in pass defense numbers for this weekend. Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are 17-11 SU & ATS in the AFC & NFC title games since 03 while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play shared the same mark. Advantage: Bay & New England. Defensive yards per point should be given at least some consideration for conference championship Sunday, since teams with an edge there are 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in the last five seasons of this round, and 5-11 ATS over the L16 games. Fading these teams has been a sound strategy and thus fading the Packers & Patriots would come into play here. Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are just 13-15 SU & ATS since 02 in conference championship play. Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a mediocre 13-15 SU & ATS run in the L28 conference championship games. Teams Regular Season Statistics Combined Trends With a good base of singular trends to choose from, we did some combining the more successful statistical angles to come up with these even more successful combination angles concerning the teams in the conference championships and their regular season stats. Teams reaching the conference championship games with statistical edges in both offensive yards per play AND defensive total yardage have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their L11 tries. This would be a Patriots play for 2017. Summary It takes an ideal set of circumstances, strengths, and momentum to reach the conference championship games, and picking out the two teams that will win and/ or cover their games is certainly not a perfect science. Unfortunately it s not just a matter of analyzing the teams entire season s body of work. It becomes even more difficult when you consider that even the best teams that have played in these games in recent years have won but failed to cover their respective pointspreads. Hopefully some of what we ve shown you this week helps get you ready for the big games. Sometimes we tend to overcomplicate things at this time of year as we look for that golden THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly nugget that is going to deliver big profits. In speaking with some of our experts about their own personal strategies, we heard some pretty simplistic but possibly successful theories Follow the money or Just take the better quarterback, or which team is playing better right now. Lately it seems as if offense and the ability to throw the football means more than defense. Whatever method you use to eventually decide your plays for this weekend, good luck, and we ll see you back in a couple of weeks as we take on Super Bowl LI! RECENT NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME LOG Date Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U Conf 1996 Season 1/12/97 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 20 #5 - JACKSONVILLE 6-8 -7 45 44 HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/12/97 #1 - GREEN BAY 30 #2 - CAROLINA 13-10 -12 39 38 HOME HOME OVER NFC 1997 Season 1/11/98 #1 - SAN FRANCISCO 10 #2 - GREEN BAY 23 1.5 2.5 43.5 44 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/11/98 #2 - PITTSBURGH 21 #4 - DENVER 24-1 3 41 42 ROAD PUSH OVER AFC 1998 Season 1/17/99 #1 - DENVER 23 #2 - NY JETS 10-8 -8.5 51 51.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/17/99 #1 - MINNESOTA 27 #2 - ATLANTA 30-10.5-10 55 54.5 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC 1/23/00 #1 - ST LOUIS 11 #2 - TAMPA BAY 1999 Season 6-14 -14.5 46 44 HOME ROAD UNDER NFC 1/23/00 #1 - JACKSONVILLE 14 #4 - TENNESSEE 33-7 -7 39 41 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC 1/14/01 #1 - NY GIANTS 41 #2 - MINNESOTA 2000 Season 0 1 2.5 41.5 43.5 HOME HOME UNDER NFC 1/14/01 #2 - OAKLAND 3 #4 - BALTIMORE 16-6 -6 39 36 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC 2001 Season 1/27/02 #1 - PITTSBURGH 17 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 24-7 -10 35.5 38 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC 1/27/02 #1 - ST LOUIS 29 #3 - PHILADELPHIA 24-10 -10 49 47.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC 1/19/03 #1 - OAKLAND 41 #2 - TENNESSEE 2002 Season 24-7 -9 47 46 HOME HOME OVER AFC 1/19/03 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 10 #2 - TAMPA BAY 27-4 -4.5 35.5 33.5 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC 2003 Season 1/18/04 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 3 #3 - CAROLINA 14-5 -4 39 36.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/18/04 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 24 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 14-4 -3.5 41 42 HOME HOME UNDER AFC 2004 Season 1/23/05 #1 - PITTSBURGH 27 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 41 2 3 38 36.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC 1/23/05 #1 - PHILADELPHIA 27 #2 - ATLANTA 10-4.5-6 42 37 HOME HOME Push NFC 2005 Season 1/22/06 #1 - SEATTLE 34 #5 - CAROLINA 14-5.5-4 43 43.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/22/06 #2 - DENVER 17 #6 - PITTSBURGH 34-3.5-3 42.5 40.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC 2006 Season 1/21/07 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 38 #4 - NEW ENGLAND 34-3 -3 49.5 47 HOME HOME OVER AFC 1/21/07 #1 - CHICAGO 39 #2 - NEW ORLEANS 14-3 -3 44 42.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC 2007 Season 1/20/08 #2 - GREEN BAY 20 #5 - NY GIANTS 23-6.5-7.5 43.5 41 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC 1/20/08 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 21 #3 - SAN DIEGO 12-15 -14 51 47.5 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC 2008 Season 1/18/09 #4 - ARIZONA 32 #6 - PHILADELPHIA 25 3 3 49.5 47 HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/18/09 #2 - PITTSBURGH 23 #6 - BALTIMORE 14-4.5-6 33 35.5 HOME HOME OVER AFC 2009 Season 1/24/10 #1 - NEW ORLEANS 31 #2 - MINNESOTA 28-4 -4 53 53.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC 1/24/10 #1 - INDIANAPOLIS 30 #5 - NY JETS 17-7.5-7.5 41 40 HOME HOME OVER AFC 2010 Season 1/23/11 #2 - CHICAGO 14 #6 - GREEN BAY 21 3 3 43 42 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/23/11 #2 - PITTSBURGH 24 #6 - NY JETS 19-3 -4.5 38.5 38 HOME HOME OVER AFC 2011 Season 1/22/12 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 23 #2 - BALTIMORE 20-7.5-7 50 48.5 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC 1/22/12 #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 17 #4 - NY GIANTS 20-3 -2 44 41 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 2012 Season 1/20/13 #1 - ATLANTA 24 #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 28 3 3.5 47 48 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC 1/20/13 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 13 #4 - BALTIMORE 28-9 -8 51 49 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC 2013 Season 1/19/14 #1 - DENVER 26 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 16-6.5-5 54.5 57 HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/19/14 #1 - SEATTLE 23 #5 - SAN FRANCISCO 17-3.5-4 41 40.5 HOME HOME UNDER NFC 2014 Season 1/18/15 #1 - NEW ENGLAND 45 #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 7-7 -7 53.5 52.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/18/15 #1 - SEATTLE 28 #2 - GREEN BAY 22-7.5-8.5 46.5 44.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC 2015 Season 1/24/16 #1 - CAROLINA 49 #2 - ARIZONA 15-3 -3 47 47 HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/24/16 #1 - DENVER 20 #2 - NEW ENGLAND 18 3 3 44 45 HOME HOME UNDER AFC VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 7

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFC CHAMPIONSHIP (311) GREEN BAY [SU:12-6 ATS:11-6-1] AT (312) ATLANTA (-5 61) [SU:12-5 ATS:11-6] JANUARY 22, 2017 3:05 PM on FOX - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics 2015 2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GREEN BAY 28.0 22 23-103 [4.5] 39-25-270 [6.9] 13.3 24.0 20 23-96 [4.1] 36-23-272 [7.5] 15.3 +10 +4.0 ATLANTA 33.9 24 26-119 [4.5] 34-24-297 [8.8] 12.3 25.1 22 23-104 [4.5] 40-26-263 [6.5] 14.6 +13 +8.8 One expression that will not be associated with this NFC title game is Defense Wins Championships, with oddsmakers releasing an opening total of 60. Chances are the best defensive stops of the day will be a dropped ball or an overthrown pass, because with how Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are playing, the Week 7 Atlanta 33-32 thriller, with the Falcons scoring winning touchdown with 31 seconds remaining, it seems like the team who has the ball last will be your winner. Everyone knows about the offenses and the quarterbacks and will hear about it all week, thus, let s look at the other perspective. The Packers have serious defensive limitations and the only reason they beat Dallas was holding them to first half field goals when they were still fresh. Atlanta, as DC Dom Capers and the Bay defense knows presents a different challenge, with skill at every offensive position. What Packers defense has to do is recognize certain formations and take chances to tip balls or breakup passes, because they cannot stop what the Falcons offense can do. Last week, Clay Mathews and Julius Peppers were non-factors and if Bay is to advance, they will have to bother Ryan or someone has to create pressure up the middle so the Atlanta quarterback does not have clean sightlines. Packers mission; keep Dirty Birds to 27 or less points and see what happens. The Atlanta defense has made strides from month to month and while they have weaknesses, they have figured out how generate pressure and have very good speed at several positions. The Falcons defensive game plan will be similar to what they did against Seahawks, rush the edges hard, but not lose contain to allow Rodgers to get outside the pocket. This is easier said than done, since there is no comparison between Seattle s offensive line and Bay s. Losing DE Adrian Clayborn was a big blow for coach Dan Quinn s defense with his pass rush and run-stopping skills. What Atlanta coaches have to figure out is how to contain Pack s tight ends, because their aggressive style leaves the opposition one major opening and that is covering that position, which Rodgers can definitely exploit for huge plays. GAME TRENDS GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS(L15G) on ROAD - In January ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(CS) GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(cs) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 311 GREEN BAY 61 30.0 24.8 29.5 27.3 312 ATLANTA -5 31.0-3.6 33.0 34.3 30.9 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN For most of Mike Vick s Atlanta career, he was a thorn in Bay s side, which lead in part to Falcons being 7-2 ATS during most of Brett Favre s Packers stay. Bay has covered the last three of five, including earlier this season in a 33-32 loss as a three-point road underdog with 31 seconds remaining. This series has always been about the road team and the underdog, with each having winning records of 11-3 ATS and 10-4 ATS respectively going back to 1992. In fact, the visitor is on 5-0 ATS run and the squad catching points in on 3-0 ATS streak. The Over is 5-3 since 2005 and the opening total of 60 is more than five points higher than any previous meeting. 8 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (313) PITTSBURGH [SU:13-5 ATS:11-6-1] AT (314) NEW ENGLAND (-5.5 50) [SU:15-2 ATS:14-3] JANUARY 22, 2017 6:40 PM on CBS - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics 2015 2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 24.8 21 27-117 [4.4] 36-23-256 [7.1] 15.0 19.7 19 22-95 [4.2] 37-24-239 [6.5] 17.0 +7 +5.1 NEW ENGLAND 27.9 22 30-116 [3.9] 35-23-270 [7.8] 13.8 15.6 18 23-89 [3.9] 37-23-235 [6.3] 20.8 +12 +12.3 Like the NFC matchup, fantastic quarterback matchup in this AFC affair. Ben Roethlisberger runs a dynamic, diverse offense that is quite different from last year, though no less effective. This time is starts with Le Veon Bell, whose patient running style just piles up yards and he regularly makes a one-yard gain into five. (Note: Pittsburgh would be wise not to give Bell so many carries in first half like last week, as his legs were gone in fourth quarter). Of course Antonio Brown is a supreme talent and the Steelers will force feed him the pigskin anyway they can. Defensively, Pittsburgh has to get a pass rush in Tom Brady s face, as that seemingly is the only way to stop him. They had the most sacks in the second half of the season (30) and if the last two games in any indicator, Brady has been a little off and seems to miss Rob Gronkowski more of late. The Steelers have won nine in a row (7-1-1 ATS) and realistically has the components to derail the Patriots express. Time to ignore Seattle s Earl Thomas, it s not New England s fault about their schedule, given how Roger the Ruler treated the Patriots about Deflate-Gate, he would have probably preferred they played all road games. New England has been the best team in the NFL all year and when a club like this can go 14-3 ATS in spite of sportsbooks shading them every week, that is a testament to their skill. Though Pittsburgh contained Tyreek Hill, Patriots are more creative and have more weaponry to get the ball to Dion Lewis for game-changing plays. It cannot go unnoticed the Steelers had to kick six field goals against Kansas City and New England had the best scoring defense in the NFL and has permitted just 12.8 PPG in seven-game winning streak. Also have to factor in the matchup, as since Brady has been Pats starter, he is 9-3 (8-3-1 SATS) against Pittsburgh and has never lost to them at home (4-0 and ATS), with only Patriots defeat in 2008 when Tom Terrific was injured. GAME TRENDS NEW ENGLAND is 13-2-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 5.8 yards per play(cs) PITTSBURGH is 3-12-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per carry(cs) PITTSBURGH is 13-2 UNDER(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 313 PITTSBURGH 50 30.0 18.5 20.9 23.0 314 NEW ENGLAND -5.5 33.0-5.8 28.5 NE 26.5 27.7 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN For as great as the Pittsburgh franchise has been going back to the 1970 s, since Tom Brady was drafted by New England, they are 3-9 and 3-8-1 ATS. In fact, if you go back two more games before Brady, the Steelers are 4-10 and 3-10-1 ATS. Pittsburgh has never won in New England with the always focused Brady (0-4 SU & ATS) the starter, with lone victory in 2008 when Matt Cassel was playing for injured Michigan grad. With the Patriots dominance, it makes home/road and favorite/underdog numbers less relevant. On the total, the Over holds an 8-4 edge, but has come up short in three of past four. 9 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION