Status and futures in the fishmeal industry By Gunn Strandheim Irish Pelagic Seminar Killybegs, Ireland 11th of November - 211
Global fishmeal production
Subject. Resource situation in the fishmeal industry Current global fishmeal production Global fishmeal/fishoil usage Future demand for fishmeal/oil Prices and price drivers Vegetable substitutes
1 tonnes Catch of main pelagic species for fishmeal & oil production (Peruvian anchovy, Jurel, sardines) 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. Fishing in Peru and Chile Chile Peru
1 tonnes Catch of main pelagic species for fishmeal & oil production in Europe 6. Fishing of Blue Whiting, Sandeel, Sprat, Capelin 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Faeroe Norway Denmark Other EU Iceland
Raw material from direct landings to the fishmeal industry in Norway 1 tonnes 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Others Capelin Blue Whiting Sandeel Herring 25 26 27 28 29 21 211E
Price development for species used for fishmeal and oil production. NOK/kg 2,5 Price development pelagic species delivered to fishmeal production in Norway Source: NSSL 2 1,5 1,5 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Jan - Oct 1 Jan - Oct 11
Estimated volumes of cuttings from the herring fillet industry in Norway 1 tonnes 25 2 15 1 5 25 26 27 28 29 21 211E
Estimate of global fishmeal By - product production in 28 Estimate of global fishmeal By - product production in 28 Producing Fishmeal Share % By- product country production By-product production Thailand 468 6 % 281 Japan 23 9 % 183 Chile 673 14 % 94 USA 216 25 % 54 Mexico 16 5 % 53 Iceland 141 32 % 45 Russia 71 5 % 36 Denmark 161 2 % 32 Canada 31 1 % 31 Norway 135 22 % 3 Total 2.25 838 Others 2.612 15 % 39 Total World 4.817 25 % 1.228 source:iffo
1 tonnes World fishmeal production historical development 8. 7. 6. 5. Others Chile Peru Share Peru & Chile World fishmeal production 6 % 5 % 4 % 4. 3. 2. 1. 3 % 2 % 1 % 1971 1974 1977 198 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24 27 21 %
World fishmeal production by country 7. 6. 5. World fishmeal production by country Others USA UK/Ireland Norway Iceland Denmark Chile Peru 4. 3. 2. 1. 25 26 27 28 29 21 E 211 E
1 tonnes World fishoil production 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 8 6 4 2 Production of fishoil world wide 198-211 E
Percentage of fishmeal usage per market 2 3 % 9 % 29 % 35 % Aquaculture Poultry Pigs Ruminants Other 24 %
Percentage of fishmeal usage per market 29 4 % 25 % Aquaculture 8 % 63 % Poultry Pigs Other
Percentage of fishoil usage per market 29 6 % 13 % Aquaculture Direct human cons. Other 81 %
Percentage of fishoil usage in aquaculture 29 1 % % 3 % 3 % 6 % 19 % Crustaceans Marine fish Salmon & Trout Eels Cyprinids Tilapias Other 68 %
195 1952 1954 1956 1958 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23 Estimated growth in aquaculture production 21 23 (4,5% a year) Mill tonnes 25 2 Aquaculture Catch 15 1 5
195 1952 1954 1956 1958 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23 Estimated growth in aquaculture production 21 23 (2% a year) Mill tonnes 2 18 Aquaculture 16 Catch 14 12 1 8 6 4 2
Factors affecting the fishmeal market and the prices. General economic situation (financial crisis etc.) Commodity market Prices on substitutes (soyameal, rapemeal etc) Supply situation
World largest fishmeal importers 1 tonnes Fishmeal import in main markets 3. 2.5 Japan EU China 2. 1.5 1. 5 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21
World largest fishmeal exporters 1 tonnes 4. 3.5 3. USA Chile Peru Ireland UK Faeroe Island Norway Iceland Denmark 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 5
Fishmeal prices the big picture USD/tonnes 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 9 7 5 3 Development Fishmeal prices, CIF Hamburg Jan 1991 - Sep 211 EL Nino EL Nino
USD/tonne Development in import price China 2. Average import price fishmeal to China 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 8 6 4 29 21 211 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12
USD/tonne Ratio Fishmeal price versus soyameal price 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Fishmeal and Soyameal Jan 3 - Sep 11 Fishmeal price Soyameal price Ratio FM/SBM 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
sep.6 des.6 mar.7 jun.7 sep.7 des.7 mar.8 jun.8 sep.8 des.8 mar.9 jun.9 sep.9 des.9 mar.1 jun.1 sep.1 des.1 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 Price development wheat USD/tonne 5 Wheat 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1
sep.6 des.6 mar.7 jun.7 sep.7 des.7 mar.8 jun.8 sep.8 des.8 mar.9 jun.9 sep.9 des.9 mar.1 jun.1 sep.1 des.1 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 Price development maize USD/tonne 35 Maize (corn) 3 25 2 15 1
Quantity (1 tonnes) Price (USD/Tonne) Change in fishmeal inventories IFFO-6 countries 12 1 Fishmeal - production and exports versus price Dec 2 - Sep 11 Production less exports IFFO-6 - accumulated last 12 months Price Hamburg 21 19 8 6 4 2-2 -4 aug. 11 jun. 11 apr. 11 feb. 11 des. 1 okt. 1 aug. 1 jun. 1 apr. 1 feb. 1 des. 9 okt. 9 aug. 9 jun. 9 apr. 9 feb. 9 des. 8 okt. 8 aug. 8 jun. 8 apr. 8 feb. 8 des. 7 okt. 7 aug. 7 jun. 7 apr. 7 feb. 7 des. 6 okt. 6 aug. 6 jun. 6 apr. 6 feb. 6 des. 5 okt. 5 aug. 5 jun. 5 apr. 5 feb. 5 des. 4 okt. 4 aug. 4 jun. 4 apr. 4 feb. 4 des. 3 okt. 3 aug. 3 jun. 3 apr. 3 feb. 3 dec 2 17 15 13 11 9 7 5
1 tonnes Fishmeal inventories in China 25 Fishmeal stock - end of month 2 15 1 5 29 21 211 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Summary Increased competition for raw material for fishmeal and fishoil production. Increased focus on cuttings from the industry Stable or slightly declining world fishmeal production Future use of fishmeal will be limited to aquaculture The fishmeal price will be less dependent of prices of substitutes. Continued high prices with ups and downs in short cycles.
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