What Really Wins Money

March 2006 What Really Wins Money An Independent review of tipsters and betting systems Hello again, and welcome to a post Cheltenham edition of WRWM. Well, what have we got for you this month? Bet exchange poker here s a couple of strategies you can use on the exchanges dip in at any time of the day or night, and hopefully secure those green screens where you re in profit. We ll also be covering fixed odds football and how the use of multiple bets, via permutations, can help give you the edge. I ve found a system which is the equivalent of the HTB for football, it may prove its worth long term. We also lock horns with a footy tipster to avoid thanks to feedback from a WRWM reader who forked out his hard earned only to be left with 3 winning bets out of 32 hmmmm! What else? Ah yes, find out how you can benefit from backing 2 or more horses in a race, and still profit it s all down to dutching! Al Capone s accountant used it, I ll show you how you can too. Isiris a better month than January, and that was to be expected in all honesty if they d have performed as badly for the 2nd month in a row, I would have serious IN THIS ISSUE: Free Betting Strategy Revealed! How a simple hedge can help you triple a 100 betting bank in 30 days using the bookies free money offers!...page 1 Tipsters and Systems Update After a poor January, Isiris is back on track and 2,000 in profit! Plus the latest results from a fistful of tipsters, RTDO and Lay Systems...page 2 Betting Strategy: How to make smash and grab profits from BetExchange Poker!...page 3 Betting Strategy Uncovered: Dutching How Al Capone s book-keeper can help you to back 2 or more outcomes for profit!...page 7 Special Focus: Why you don t need a risky accumulator to make good money from fixed odds football bets......page 9 IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE PUBLISHER! How to Turn FREE Info Hidden in Your Local Council s Planning Office into a 25,000 79,500 Part-Time Sales Lead Brokerage Business...page 12 concerns. Find out how they re progressing, along with the lay systems I reviewed last time (the losers are flooding in!) Oh yes, did you spot the not-so-deliberate mistake last month? Our glowing review of The Sports Statistician was slightly marred by the pricing info you probably thought it was a little expensive at 37 a month. The good news is it is only 37 a year! Go to www.oxonpress.com. Now let s kick off with a lovely little loophole... Free Betting Strategy Revealed! How a simple hedge can help you triple a 100 betting bank in 30 days using the bookies free money offers! With the increasingly competitive online market between Bookmakers, a large number are making surprisingly generous offers to lure punters into opening new accounts. OK, here s how to make that free bet work for you The majority of these promotions consist of a deal that if you place a first bet of 25 through their site then they will give you another 25 bet free. Sounds good, but there s a catch. Some bookmakers won t allow you to take the free money out. Even if you were to place a winning bet with them you could take out the winnings but would not get the free stake back. On the face of it this makes these deals less attractive. Betfair to the rescue again! The ability to lay on the betting exchanges can provide the perfect way to exploit and profit from these concessions. Laying the same horse that you back at similar odds can provide you with insurance for the winning bet you place with your free money. Let me explain. Use your free bet to back a horse at the bookmakers that you think WILL LOSE! You are, in reality, using your free bet as insurance if the horse you have laid actually wins (remember, laying a horse means you are looking for it to lose). You place an insurance bet to win on a horse you please turn over

think will lose and then pick up the money from laying the horse to lose on the Exchange. In effect, you are being offered free insurance on your lays. What s more you are receiving the cost of insurance premium in the returns of the lay. It follows therefore that if you get a free insurance policy worth 25 you should be able to convert that to cash when the horse loses the race and you pick up the returns from the lay. Let me give you a real life example: An Irish bookmaker was offering a free bet for 25 if I placed a bet for 25 through them. In odds terms they were not a good value bookmaker. However I reckoned that I could safely free up about 20 of the 25 on offer without taking a risk. So, on Day 1, I placed a 25 bet on horse A at odds of 13/1. I laid this bet at odds of 13.5 which on the face of it would make a loss if the horse won. If Horse A won I would get a return of 300 but would pay out 312 on the lay making a 12 loss. If Horse A lost I would make 25 on the lay which was the same as the cost of the bet, so I would be in a win-win situation. Horse A lost and I break even. However I was now entitled to a free 25 bet the next day. On Day 2 I placed the free 25 bet on Horse B at odds of 16/1. I placed a lay at 16 to the value of 20. My liability (the amount I will lose if this horse wins is 300). If Horse B won I would get 300 back from the bookie less 300 cost of the lay. If Horse B lost I would get 20 from the lay. I had no deductions as the insurance bet was free. Horse B lost. After charges on these transactions I made 18.10 profit from the free bet offer. I could take this out of the Betting Exchange as cash if wished to. I chose to leave it in. These offers are obviously valuable coming at the beginning of a period of capital growth. You could more than triple your 100 betting bank in less than a month. As you need to open accounts with bookmakers anyway, you may as well take what s on offer. Be careful to read the terms and conditions and beware of time limits. To get your full value out of the offers you may have to bet more than you would normally. However provided you work out on paper the win/lose situation and adjust the lay amount to cover your losses in the event of the horse winning this is effectively a no risk money-for-free offer! How to open an account with Betfair: Betfair.Com is the Betting Exchange that I have used effectively for the last 4 years. It is clear, easy to use and reliable and I have no hesitation in recommending it. Currently Betfair are offering 25 free to new customers who deposit funds by debit or credit card. This offer is prevalent throughout the Cheltenham Festival week. If this offer remains, then great. If for any reason it is time limited, you are entitled to a free 20 by another method. Simply enter this code: 7JCVGT6FL. Where to find free bets: A great place to find these free cash incentives is to look at betting portals. Take a look at the following lists for some juicy incentive schemes for first time customers: www.british-shopping.com look under gambling online bookmakers http://freebets.football-data.co.uk/100freebets.php look under best free bets http://www.racing-index.com/bookmakers/free-bets.html http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/bookmakers.php These four websites will serve as a perfect introduction into bookmakers promotions and concessions. A bit of searching will probably find more. There are some foreign bookmakers with similar offers, but please read their terms and conditions. Finally, a special thanks to the WRWM reader who tipped me off to this - you know who you are! Tipsters and Systems Update After a poor January, Isiris is back on track and 2,000 in profit! Plus the latest results from a fistful of tipsters, RTDO and Lay Systems Well February was a lot better than January it couldn t get any worse surely? Now before I start I must say I m using the prices advised on the Isiris line, which are not necessarily the prices you may find at the bookmakers weight of Isiris members money backing at the same time seems to put pay to some of the bigger prices. That said, having gone backward in January we moved forwards and touched the 9,000 mark as of February 28th. This is more like it! The strike rate has been poor with the each way selections which, while in most instances not winning, did not even place, thus losing our stake (if a 5/1 or higher horse backed each way actually places, we more often than not get our stakes returned.) Boosted by 3 out of 3 on the 24th February which swelled the coffers by 1,000, and England losing to Scotland in the 6 Nations Rugby as a maximum bet, the betting bank has been stabilised somewhat. Nearly 2,000 profit despite the large number of eachway bets that went astray is testament to the excellent staking plan. My confidence has been restored, although I still have a niggle about the prices as quoted on the tipping line and the actual prices you can get in the live market being markedly shorter. Let s hope that the flat season brings more of the same. And what about our 5 tipsters? Nick Mordin: Well, Nick tipped 76 bets, 62 of which lost and 14 winners, but managed a profit to level stakes for the month. Using a base figure of 100, he realised 2

2,030 profit this month. Alex Gorrie tipped 77 bets, 33 winners and 44 losers, a return of 1,080 to 100 stakes. The Sweeney had a shocking February: 80 bets, 61 losers and 19 winners and an overall loss for the month of 2,090 to 100 level stakes ouch! The Winning Line took a more cautious approach to their betting volume, selecting 12 bets, 6 of which won and 6 lost, profiting for the 2nd successive month at 1,400 to 100 level stakes Henry Rix had a quiet February too with 5 bets, 2 winning and 3 losing and would have made 50 profit to 100 levels stakes Bottomline: The Winning Line still looks like the one worth following. More updates! The Results To Dream Of: There have been some instances with recent selections where you would be advised to just have a quick look at the race to determine if it is a betting race. Take recent selections He s a Star and Wogan. He s a Star was a RTDO selection, but was running in a handicap race on the all weather. The market leader was 7/2 and the outsider priced at 16/1, indicating a close knit race. The RPR ratings of 8 of the horses was within 2 of the top rated horse. He s a Star was also not the market leader, but 5th in the betting at 8/1. All in all not a wholly confident bet. Similarly Wogan was a recent selection in a 17-runner handicap hurdle, priced at 6/1. The favourite was priced at 9/2 and this had the look of an open race. Wogan, again was not the market leader and was priced at 7/1. With horses of this price it is always advisable to back each way, because if they are placed, at least our stakes are returned. A little bit of due diligence can weed out perhaps the lesser of the RTDO selections. Fixed Odds Trader: With a current 55% strike rate, Fixed odds trader is not performing as its early results had promised. Wait for a return to form! How have last month s 3 lay systems performed? I reviewed 3 laying systems recently. How are they performing? All are performing well, provided the staking plans and rules are followed. Keeping our lays to 5/1 or less helps control liability. The Ultimate Horse Racing Laying System ( 24.94 at www.horselayingsystem.com/index.html) is the simplest to follow and does give multiple selections day by day 5 winning horses since I began my test augurs well. But using the rule of not backing over 5/1 selections (6.00 on the betting exchanges) means that we have missed a large number of bigger priced losers. Liability control using 5% of your betting bank and not the stake is very sensible and ensures continuous daily profits, albeit slow but steady. 3 The Lay Betting Selection System ( 10.95 from nick_thesaint695@btopenworld.com) promises a strike rate of 95%, but how has it performed? Again using our criteria of choosing the selections with the biggest qualifying points, under 5/1 we have had 33 winning laying bets and 3 losing bets at 6/4, 3/1 and 4/1. A 91% strike rate and a profit! Laying 4 Profit ( 55 by emailing layingforprofits@yahoo.com) does produce multiple selections per day, but we are ahead here. If you also pay attention to the unique approaches to liability control, and implement them, long term profit is assured. Want more updates? Then sign up to the WRWM weekly e-letter! Every Friday you ll find the latest news on the tipsters and systems featured in the pages of WRWM. And guess what? It s free! Just email tcoservices@dial.pipex.com with your name and postcode and they will update your records. Betting Strategy Revealed How to make smash and grab profits from BetExchange Poker! Take a visit to www.betfairgames.com and you ll find betfair poker and betfair blackjack. For the purposes of this article we ll be concentrating on bet exchange poker. Bet exchange poker is traditional texas hold em with a twist rather than play against other people, you re playing against the betfair bots who determine the odds of each hand after each deal. There are 4 hands in this game: you have 4 opportunities to back and 4 opportunities to lay 1 for each hand. Texas Hold Em has 5 stages: THE 5 STAGES. 1. THE DEAL (fig 1 on page 4) This is the stage before any cards are dealt. 2. THE PREFLOP (fig 2) 2 cards are dealt for Hands 1 to 4 and the site software assesses the strength of the hands at this stage, and reflects that in the odds. 3. THE FLOP (fig 3) 3 universal cards are dealt which compliment all hands. Again, the site software assesses the chances of each hand with this new information and shorten or lengthen the odds accordingly. 4. THE TURN (fig 4) another card is added which is universally applicable to all hands. The site software determines at this stage that Hand 3 looks the strongest with Two pairs, Ten and Seven, Six High 5. THE RIVER (fig 5) One final card is dealt. Hand 4 wins Straight, Seven High One thing of note is the huge fluctuation of odds between each hand. On the turn, the odds were telling please turn over

Fig 4: The Turn Fig 1: The Deal Fig 5: The River Fig 2: The Preflop Fig 3: The Flop 4

Fig 6 Fig 7 Fig 8 us that surely Hand 3 would win, but this was not the case. So, in order to profit from Bet Exchange Poker, conventional gambling on the shortest price hand will not work. Back high and lay low is the secret to profiting The best way to exploit this unique game is through trading the price movements. Because of the unique position we are in of being able to back hands and lay hands, we can trade in the traditional way, (as we did with the football trading), by backing high and laying 5 low. Strategy 1: Involve all the cards In order to make use of trading in this context, I think it is important to involve all 4 hands in our betting. This gives us the flexibility to cut our losses if things go against us. In a worst-case scenario, if the cards go against us, we can trade any or all of our hands to minimize our losses by backing and laying as appropriate. STEP 1: Our first point of focus is the PreFlop stage of the game. Here we are looking to back the hands with please turn over

the highest odds and lay the hands with the lowest odds all to the same stake eg: 2. TIP#1 ideally the 3 hands with the lowest odds should be closely matched. Let me take an actual game as an example. As you can see in Fig 6 the odds are closely matched between the 3 shortest priced hands. The biggest priced hands are hands 2 and 4, so I have backed them for 5 stake. The shortest priced hands are 1 and 3 which I have laid for a 5 stake. THE FLOP (fig 7) As luck would have it, (alas, luck plays a big part in this game), the odds of the hands we laid have increased dramatically and the odds of the hands we backed have reduced dramatically. What a result! Hands 1 & 3 are still showing liabilities which we have to get rid of. So I back hand 1 for 2 and back hand 3 for 2. This will leave us with a profit on all hands and our work is done. TIP#2 ALWAYS try to get your liability (they appear as red figures on the screen) either reduced or turned into profit as quickly as possible. TIP#3 Next to the View p/l button on the top left hand side of the screen click on the [settings] button and tick all boxes bar the gamcare box. This will enable you to see your profit/loss on the screen and help you to determine how much to back or lay. How else could you profit from this hand? We could lay hand 4. Remember we backed it at the pre-flop stage at 5.18 for 5 giving us a profit of 25.25 on this hand. Now the odds have reduced dramatically to 1.59. (Remember if odds drop, then the perceived chance of winning increases.). We still have the small matter of - 19 and - 14 to deal with. We could lay hand 4 as follows. LAY HAND 4 at 1.61 for 20. This will cost you 12.20 from those potential winnings of 25.25 and leave us with the following scenario: HAND 1-19.90 + 20 = 10p profit HAND 2 23.89 + 20 = 43.89 profit. HAND 3-14.25 + 20 = 5.75 profit HAND 4 25 12.20 = 12.80 profit As you can see Hand 2 has 43.89 while hands 1 and 3 have a far lower profit. Because the odds of Hand 2 have reduced from the 4.9 which we originally backed it, to 3.32, we are in a position where we can take some of the 43 potential winnings and share it out amongst the other hands. LAY HAND 2 at lay odds of 3.34 for 10. This will cost hand 2 23 from its potential winnings and add 10 onto Hands 1, 3 and 4. HAND 1 10.10 profit HAND 2 20.89 profit HAND 3 15.75 profit HAND 4 22.80 profit Now, regardless of which hand wins, we will win the above amounts. We can conclude, in this instance, that backing Hand 1 and Hand 3 for 2 initially was the quickest way in which to eliminate our liabilities and ensure we profit. TIP #4 The cards will not always produce the shift in odds that we want in an ideal situation, so the above techniques can be used to reduce the figures in red to ensure we fight another day. Strategy 2: Back 2 hands for the same stake This strategy involves the cards at the deal stage and involves an element of luck. What we do here is back any 2 hands for the same stake. Wait for the Preflop stage, and use the backing and laying techniques from Strategy 1 to maximize winnings or minimize losses. Here we are looking for the odds of the hands we have backed at 3.98 to decrease, and the odds of the hands we haven t backed to increase ABOVE 3.98 to enable us to create a green screen (profit on all hands) Can you follow the example set out? (see fig 8 on page 5) At the deal stage I backed Hands 1 and 2 for 5. At the preflop stage the odds for Hand 3 was not above 3.98, but the odds for Hand 4 were. On the right hand side of the screen you see that I backed Hand 3 for 6 and backed hand 4 for 2.50 Our goal has been reached all profit. There are variations to this strategy: you could back just one hand at the deal stage and HOPE that its odds at the preflop stage have reduced. TIP#5 Although with both strategies I advocate getting out as quickly as possible, you could let the bets ride on to the Flop, Turn, and River stages, but you will be at the behest of the turn of the cards. You may profit far more if the odds fluctuate in your favour, OR you may lose more if the odds fluctuate against you. BetEx Poker System Review BISMARX POKER Here s a system introduced by Jon Dee of bismarx.com which focuses solely on laying one hand and hoping it doesn t lose. The system operates using progressive staking, a form of chasing losses. I don t want to give away the mechanics of the system, but Jon advocates laying one hand, and stopping if that hand loses (we have laid it, and so opposed it). If that hand wins, we must lay the next qualifying hand to win back our previously lost stake and target profit. If that hand loses, we win and stop there. But if that hand wins, we do the same again. I tried paper trading this system and found on numerous occasions I had laid a qualifying hand which lost at the first time of asking. I did, however, reach a sequence of 4 winning hands (where I lost because I had laid them) where the hypothetical stakes would have been uncomfortable. What s good? As long as the hand you lay loses and loses quickly, this is a good system to use and simple to operate. What s not so good? Progressive staking is not for 6

everyone. Should you reach a position where you have laid 5 qualifying hands in a row and all of these 5 hands have won, you are looking at very big liabilities for relatively small gain. We have already seen the fluctuation of the odds. I personally think that if I have laid a hand and its odds have increased significantly, I can get out by trading (see Strategy 1) rather than run the risk that the hand may win and I lose. As we have seen, the odds can change quickly, potentially losing hands can turn into winning hands on any of the 5 stages of the game, and if I were in the position where I could guarantee a profit I ll take it. Bet exchange poker does not have any discernable patterns to it. The winning hands are purely random. There is nothing stopping a sequence of hands we have chosen to lose, winning again and again. That said, in my tests at numerous times of the day and night, I was impressed by the amount of times I won on the first hand, peace of mind assured. Although bet exchange poker is 24/7, this strategy, I would surmise, cannot be used constantly, hour after hour. I think it is a great strategy for a smash and grab raid, taking a predetermined profit and running! Betting Strategy Uncovered: Dutching How Al Capone s bookkeeper can help you to back 2 or more outcomes for profit! When used selectively, this great strategy can be a real boon to your betting bank. Dutching is the ability to back 2 or more outcomes and profit if they win. This was a favoured method of betting for Al Capone s book-keeper, Dutch Schultz, when he fancied a flutter. Thankfully it is completely legitimate and allows us to create our own underround. You see, the bookmakers operate to what s termed an overround in all of the sports they price up, horseracing included. If you were to convert the odds of all horses in a particular race into percentages, they will add up to greater that 100%. Why? The bookmakers must make a profit. Well, if the odds add up to exactly 100% we would be able to back every horse in the race and break even. Punters have differing opinions and so bookmakers have to factor in a profit in each race. Let me show you an actual example: Adecco 11/8 Clouding Over 2/1 Fantastic Arts 9/2 7 Cedar Rapids 9/1 Dramatic Quest 25/1 In order to translate odds to percentages we do the following: Adecco: 11 divided by 8 = 1.375 Add one = 2.375 Divide 100 by 2.375 = 42.10% Clouding Over: 2 divided by 1 = 2 Add one = 3 divide 100 by 3 = 33.33% Fantastic Arts: 9 divided by 2 = 4.5 Add one = 5.5 divide by 100 = 18.18% Cedar Rapids: 9 divided by 1 = 9 Add one = 10 divide 100 by 10 = 10% Dramatic Quest: 25 divided by 1 = 25 Add one = 26 100 divided by 26 = 3.85% The total percentage in this race is 107.46%. The odds will always add up to greater than 100% if the bookmaker is doing his job right, the % difference above 100% is his profit. Help! There is a free odds to % calculator available at http://www.bettingmad.com/calculator.asp which will help speed things along. Profiting from the underround In order to make a profit, we need to create an underround. That is, back those horses we fancy and leave the outsiders alone. Now using our example, let s see how we would dutch this race. We can use the percentages here to determine the strength of certain selections. Adecco takes up 42.10% of the market, closely followed by Clouding Over at 33.33%. Added together, these 2 market leaders take up 75.44% of the total percentage of 107.46%. We could say that, together, these 2 horses have a near 75% chance of winning, or more accurately 75/107.46 x 100 = 70%. If we were to look at this race from the Racing Post s perspective, Spotlight has selected Adecco as its strongest bet of the day, but Clouding Over is being backed and has reduced in odds from 3/1 to 2/1. Which horse do I chose? It looks like a 2 horse race. I can back both and make a profit if either wins! That s right, if I use 1 =1% I could back Adecco for 42.10 and Clouding Over for 33.33, and make a profit of 100% 42.10 33.33 = 24.56 or thereabouts if either horse wins. If Adecco wins: I win 42.10 x 11 divided by 8 (the odds) = 57.89. I must take away my 33.33 staked on Clouding Over = 24.56 profit. If Clouding Over wins (which he did in this race): I win 33.33 x 2 divided by 1(the odds) = 66.66. I must take away the 42.10 staked on Adecco = 24.56 profit. If any of the other 3 horses won this race, I would please turn over

naturally have lost. Hang on Clive! Isn t Dutching the same as laying? Yes, it is exactly the same as laying! With laying, if we oppose one horse, we naturally have the other horses running for us. I could have laid Fantastic Arts (the next shortest priced horse in the field) at 9/2 and had all 4 other horses running for me. But to win 25, my liability would have been 110 (this is what I would lose if Fantastic Arts wins). It is entirely your decision here. You have the insurance of the other 4 horses running when you lay just one horse. You have paid an extra 35 for the privilege (backing Adecco and Clouding over to win the same amount costs 75.44). The 9 key race criteria for dutching profits I ve found that the best races to use dutching as a staking tool is when the following criteria are met: 1. Small field races such as the one in our example, with 2 strong market leaders, one of which is being backed and one of which is fancied by the pundits (in our example Clouding Over was being backed from 3/1 to 2/1 and Adecco was fancied by Spotlight in the Racing Post). Look for races where there are 2 clear market rivals, say at 6/4 and 7/4, in the betting forecast with the next horse at 5/1 or a big discrepancy in the odds. TIP if the 2 market leaders are priced over evens, we can back them using the same stake and profit if either wins 2. Avoid maiden races: races where horses haven t won. There are too many imponderables here. Some horses will have no comparative form, and really could be anything. Maiden races sometimes throw up a shock for exactly this reason. 3. Avoid sellers these horses are due to be sold by their current owners Why? Well, it s not because they are lightning quick and reliable! 4. Avoid banded stakes races. Predominantly held on the all weather, these races are mostly for poor performing horses, really to give the owners something to run them in. Now some banded stakes races will have regular good performers in this grade, most will not. Do not dismiss out of hand, but be aware that these races bring up shocks on many occasions. 5. Avoid National Hunt Flat races known as bumpers like maiden races, in some instances there is no comparative form and so no way to judge effectively the relative merits of each entrant in the race. 6. Avoid races in heavy going over marathon distances of 3 miles or over. Anything could happen during that 3 miles especially over obstacles. 7. Avoid 5 furlong sprints again the favourite could miss the kick, and the draw plays a big part in these races. 8. Look for races of 8 runners or less, or races where Spotlight (in the Racing Post) mentions plenty of deadwood. This indicates that there are many horses just making up the numbers. 9. If you can follow the live betting market, ensure that you include in your calculations any horses whose odds are shortening in the market. Perhaps you could also include 16/1 system selections. I tend to use dutching as a tool for point 1 (small field races) on most occasions. There are 2 clear market leaders, but I m unsure which horse will win. Here s another example: Take the 2:25 at Wolverhampton on the 11th March 2006. The following horses lined up in this race over 6 furlongs: Bayeux 6/4, Graze On 10/3, Indian Maiden 7/1, Josh 7/1, Quito 8/1, Roman Maze 14/1, Treasure Cay 20/1, If Paradise 20/1, One More Round 20/1 and Orientor 25/1. Immediately we can see that there are 2 horses who clearly head the betting market Bayeux and Graze On. Bayeux is priced at 6/4 which in percentage terms is 40% (see if you can work that out using the previous formula) Graze On is priced at 10/3 or 23.08%. If we were to back just these 2 horses the total % would equal 63.08%. Should either of these horses win, we win the difference between 100 and 63.08 = 36.92 if we were backing 1 = 1%. The next horse, Indian Maiden is priced at 7/1 which in % terms is 12.5%. I will add this horse to my book. My book now includes Graze On (who has won his last 4 races), Bayeux (very progressive) and Indian Maiden. The % is now 63.08+12.5=75.58%. Looking at the race odds I am quite confident I can exclude all horses priced at 14/1 and over. This now leaves me with Quito and Josh. I will, for safety s sake, include one more horse to back, and it will be Josh at 7/1. This adds another 12.5% to my book, making it currently 75.58% + 12.5% = 88.08%. I am happy with this. I have now backed the following horses in this race: Bayeux 6/4 40 Graze on 10/3 23.08 Indian Maiden 7/1 12.5 Josh 7/1 12.5 Total % = 88.08%. If any of the horses win, I win the difference between 100 and 88.08 = 11.92. As it happened, Bayeux won at 6/4. I won 40 x6 divided by 4= 60 minus the stakes for Graze on, Indian Maiden and Josh (23.08+12.5+12.5= 48.08) = 11.92 profit. I was very confident in Bayeux initially, as well as Graze on, but wanted to play it safe. Of course, the fewer horses you select into your book, the more you win, BUT the greater the chance you will lose. How would laying just one horse have faired against dutching our 4 chosen horses? Quito was the next shortest priced horse in this race at 8/1. To win 11.92 I would have a liability of 95.36, but I would have all of the other horses running for me. My insurance here costs an additional 7 and as long as Quito doesn t win, I win. Quito came 2nd incidentally. It is always a good idea then to compare laying 8

against dutching in all qualifying races. The bigger the field, the more inclined I would be to lay one horse and have the other horses running for me. The smaller the fields, with favourable conditions, the more inclined I would be to dutch. Are there any downsides? Of course, if your selections don t win, you lose a large proportion of your betting bank which may be difficult to retrieve. That said, careful selection of races and discipline will see you right. And don t worry about the complex calculations! There are free applications on the internet which will do the calculations for you if you punch in the odds. http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/dutchingcalcula tor.asp http://www.betcalc.com/eqprofitcalc.php Are there any tipsters on the market? Dutching tipsters are few and far between. Dutching relies on the most up to date odds in order to calculate correctly. However, we have looked at 2 services which deal in dutching. RATED THE TOPS not for service though! Rated The Tops intrigued me because the testimonials praised the service (don t they all!). I took it for a test drive and promptly began, what for me was, an interesting look into a dutching tipster service. However, the emails soon dried up and my calls and emails remained unanswered for some reason. This service sends out selections in numerous races throughout the day to dutch. The problem here with dutching is that we are, admittedly, staking rather a large amount of money for relatively little gain, and if one of our selections in a particular race doesn t win, then we are in a situation where we have a large loss which has probably negated a large number of our previous winnings. And there lies the problem with this service. It seems wholly unworkable because of the volume of daily selections and the inherent problems of coping with losses. For the 299 purchase price we also receive a manual which explains a dutching strategy which is common sense throughout. However, I cannot possibly recommend it for the price. Instead save your money and look at my 8 earlier points, and make dutching a tool you use as and when needed rather than as a mainstay of your betting income. ONLY-A-TENNER: If you visit the website at www.onlyatenner.com, you will find it littered with winner after winner after winner (naturally these were parts of multiple bets). The service also offers a bet placement dutching service for those of you at work, and they boast 100% strike rate at present which makes me umm and ahh a bit. It sounds a bit too perfect! www.onlyatenner.com price 299. Avoid! BET-IE Dutching calculator I highly recommend Bet-ie, a piece of software used 9 solely in conjunction with the betting exchange Betfair.com. It dutches races on your behalf and purports to have an 80% strike rate with its dutched races when it signals them as excellent. This 80% strike rate, with a suitable staking plan (please do contact me if you would like it for free) means that Bet-ie really is value for money. What I really like about Bet-ie is the ability to change my target profit on specific horses. Let s take our previous example. Using Bet-ie I could back Bayeux, and instruct the calculator to break even if Graze On, Indian Maiden or Josh won. This maximizes my profit on Bayeux while offering me some insurance in the race. Dutching need not be the preserve of horse racing. Do you think that a certain football team s result when playing another team will be low scoring? Well you can dutch the 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 result if you think your chosen team will NOT lose. Perhaps you feel a certain game will be good for the strikers. You can dutch the strikers of both teams to score the first goal (odds permitting of course). Ultimately dutching is only limited by your imagination. Bet-ie is available at www.bettingprofitsoftware.com priced at 97. Includes free access to dutching forum for sharing of ideas and strategies. Highly Recommended! SPECIAL FOCUS: Football betting Why you don t need a risky accumulator to make good money from fixed odds football bets There are a number of ways to approach football betting, from the traditional methods of the fixed odds coupon, to in running trading on the betting exchanges. The latter is my preferred method because of the flexibility, ability to adapt to changing circumstances and lock in profits without having to wait 90 minutes. (For more info take a look at your WRWM Premiere Issue). But how can we turn a profit from the more traditional route? The Fixed Odds Coupon We all dream of picking 7 straight home wins correct in an accumulator, but this is a difficult feat to achieve. It s purely down to probability. The more selections you include in an accumulator, the less likely all of these selections will oblige. But this is not an article on the theory of probability. The traditional fixed odds coupon consists of the long list which includes all UK matches in all major league divisions, the mini sections list and the sections list. The latter 2 lists ask you to pick 1 or 2 matches from each of 4 /5 sections. The matches chosen in these 2 lists are please turn over

naturally hard to predict. We will, then, concentrate solely on the long list. How to profit from permutations The probability of accumulators winning you money diminishes the more teams you add, so we can approach multiple entry bets another way by using permutations. It is possible to perm bets or selections. For example, if you made 3 selections, (a, b and c) you could perm all the possible doubles. In this case 3 individual bets would be possible; ab, ac, and bc, a total of 3 bets or lines. Similarly, with 4 selections, (a, b, c and d) the possible doubles could again be permed and would become ab, ac, ad, bc, bd and cd; now 6 individual bets or lines. As we currently stand in terms of form, it would be a good idea to perm teams such as Reading, runaway leaders of the Championship, Chelsea, Celtic at home, Gretna at home and Accrington Stanley. (I use these as examples and not tips). This gives us 5 teams. We can approach this bet in a number of ways: 1. Back each team independently with a fixed stake 2. Back all teams in an accumulator the winnings from one team accrue onto the next team BUT all 5 teams must win for us to realize a return 3. We can perm these teams. So if, say, 2 or 3 teams win, we still get a return, but if all 5 teams win, we will have a very nice payout (dependent on the odds). Let s see how we calculate Option 3. The easy way to calculate the number of bets in a perm As an example, let s choose 3 teams out of the 5 we have singled out to win. We will perm any 3 from 5 = 10 bets. Why 10 bets? Let s look at the calculations: STEP 1: Take the number of teams (5) and multiply the 3 highest numbers: 5x4x3 = 60 STEP 2: Take the number of perms (3) and multiply it by every number below it (1 and 2 in this case come before 3): 1 x 2 x 3 = 6 STEP 3: Divide the number in step 1 by the number in step 2: 60/6 = 10 If we wanted to perm any 3 from 6 we would simply follow the 3 steps STEP 1: Take the number of teams (6) and multiply the 3 highest numbers: 6x5x4 = 120 STEP 2: Take the number of perms (3) and multiply it by every number below it (1 and 2 in this case come before 3): 1 x 2 x 3 = 6 STEP 3: And you then divide 120 by 6 which gives 20 bets. If it was any 4 from 6 you would multiply the 4 highest numbers: 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360 And you would then multiply the 4 lowest numbers: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 = 24. Then divide 360 by 24 which gives 15 lines. So a Perm any 5 from 10 would go like this: 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 (the 5 highest numbers multiplied together = 30240). Then multiply the 5 lowest numbers: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 = 120. Then divide 30240 by 120 = 252 lines. How to write your bet on the fixed odds football coupon For any 5 from 10 perm you would put a 1 (home win) or 2 (away win) or x (draw) against your 10 selections. Decide how much you want to stake on each line (let s say 2p) and then write: Perm any 5 from 10 = 252 lines at 2p stake Total 5.04 Your chances of a return increase tremendously if this type of bet is used. Here is another way you can use permutations Let s say you have a strongly fancied home team, at reasonable odds (ideally evens or over), you could back this team and 2 others (teams where your confidence is not sky high, but you believe they have a greater chance of winning) in a treble and cover all eventualities, provided your strongly fancied team wins. This encompasses 9 bets, as highlighted below. (Remember 1 = home win, x = draw, 2 = away win) TEAM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TEAM 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 X X X TEAM 3 1 2 X 1 2 X 1 2 X As long as Team 1 wins, you win. And provided the odds are reasonable for Team 1, then your returns will exceed your stakes. For your other 3 teams, look through the long list and include teams where the draw or away odds are 9/4 or 10/3 or a price around this mark. You will lose a small bit of your stake if both teams 2 and 3 win, but if there is any other result, you are in profit caveat our team 1 must win. You can also substitute X (the draw) or 2 (the away win) for team 1 rather then the home win. Single Bet Strategies: Use the Saver (no bet) to gain extra insurance when backing a home team This is a great way to gain insurance when backing a home team. Use the following free calculator at http://www.betcalc.com/savercalc.php and enter the odds of the home team you want to back. You can work the bet in such a way that you break even if there is a draw, and lose if there is an away win. This is a form of dutching for those reticent about laying on the betting exchanges. Note: this bet is the same as laying the away team of course because we win if the home team wins or if there is a draw. Use The Hard To Beat System for consistent 20% returns! According to the marketing hype at www.compilersystems.com, this system has made one 10

lucky user 1 million! To be honest, it is similar to my Hard To Beat points selections system for horse racing. So do you really need to fork out 79 to be told to back teams at between 1/5 and 1/3 playing at home? It s not rocket science, let s be honest, but the essence of backing very short priced teams who play at home may have some merit and over the long term could provide a consistent return. Patience is required here though, as is an element of due diligence. As an example, Barcelona at home is usually a rock solid bet, but due diligence is still required. If Ronaldinho (world footballer of the year) and Samuel Etoo aren t playing, I would have reservations about backing at the price the importance of research! With short priced home favourites, we are simply using the bookmakers here to show us which teams are most likely to win. So can you really make money backing shortpriced teams? Why not? 1/5 is a 20% return on money invested, and the strike rate of winners will far outweigh and absorb the losers at level stakes. I know it s not exciting, but again we need to concentrate on the long term. We can also spread our wings into Europe and seek out solid home favourites through the euro coup fixed odds coupon. Again, due diligence is a must here use the team s website, or www.betdevil.com to gauge the teams relative performances. Stand out European teams such as Barcelona, Juventus, Fenerbahce, Olympiakos, Bayern Munich, Ajax, AZ Alkmaar are regular inclusions in my bets. I have left out Real Madrid (too unpredictable), Portugeuse football (I have no confidence in form being upheld) and French football (unpredictable). We have numerous opportunities throughout a weekend to back with confidence these short priced home favourites. I personally concentrate predominantly on English football. I m also confident with Turkish teams like Fenerbahce andgalatasary when they play at home against teams in the lower half of the Turkish premier league. This season, AZ Alkmaar have been very solid at home in the Dutch league and if their price is short I back them with confidence. Always make sure you do your due diligence: All of the European leagues are covered at www.betdevil.com, who give a useful insight into recent form, head to heads and more. With English leagues I venture no further than the Racing and Football Outlook newspaper and www.soccerstats.com. The weekly specialist paper covers all aspects of up and coming football matches. The fixtures and form pages are particularly insightful. So how should you do your due diligence? First, I would select all teams with home advantage at short prices. Let s take games on the weekend 4th March 2006. We have 2 qualifiers Celtic at home to Aberdeen 1/6 and Man City at home to Sunderland 2/5 My first stop off point would be the Racing and Football outlook. In their fixtures and form section, I would look at the previous 6 results and the form rating 11 they give. The bigger the difference between Celtic and Aberdeen the better: 10+ is excellent. Next I will look at www.betdevil.com and compare the ratings on this site. Again, I am looking for the biggest divergence between the 2 teams in all categories. On betdevil I click on matches and Scotland all which lists up and coming matches. When our match is found, the letters BLMOP appear at the end of the line. Click on M for the ratings that we require. Go to the match ratings analysis the bigger the ratings difference, the better. This site also shows recent form and previous history. Our ideal is that our chosen team hasn t lost (or has preferably won) in its last 6 games and has beaten the opposition at home previously. This is all I do. I also wait for team news prior to kick off, by logging on to www.racingpost.co.uk/sport and make sure there are no key players missing. Pay particular attention to in-form striker injuries or a goal keeping change. Again The Sports Statistician is an important part of my weekend I have detailed the merits of this publication and it really is a must if you want to gain an edge. (Remember: the price is just 37 per year NOT per month as printed in last month s issue! See www.oxonpress.com.) Celtic s ability to score an average of 2.5 goals at home is a key stat for me. Aberdeen concede an average of 1.1 away from home good signs again. Man City v Sunderland: The key here is Sunderland s inability to win they conceded 24 goals away from home and scored just 10! Again we check the form stats at the Racing and Football Outlook the discrepancy is not what I would like less than 5. A look at the recent form of Man City at www.betdevil.com shows 9 goals scored at home in their last 3 games and victories in the last 3 matches. Sunderland lost 4 out of 5 away from home, winning 1-0 against fellow strugglers West Brom. Result: Man City win 2-1. This latter game is nowhere near as solid as Celtic and I just chose Celtic on this occasion. What to do with Multiple Qualifiers: If your research highlights 3 or more qualifiers in a day, then back them all to level stakes. This is where the compiler systems book can help. Advocating level stakes spread over 3 (or however many qualifying) matches and reinvesting profits (rarely will 3 selections lose, if at all) will compound returns. Again it s a slow burner this system, but I see a profitable long term future. Sometimes the simplest methods can be missed, but having the bookies point out clear winners at home (as reflected in short prices) and backing them can prove profitable. If you want an indepth look at backing short-priced teams www.compilerssystems.com ebook costs 79, but with putting your own grey matter to work, I am sure you please turn over

can keep the 79 and start for yourself! Which of these Fixed Odds Services is worth a second look? Richard Mark s Select Few Football Service: Richard has made a very tidy sum from selling his various football systems backed up with great copywriting and bold promises, but does he deliver? I must thank John Smith, one of our readers, for his thorough record keeping in respect of the following, and I hope it can give you a glimpse of the service Mr Mark offers. Marks Select Few Football Service makes a bold claim: Instead of working all week for a few hundred pounds, here s how to make double that in just 7 minutes So how did our WRWM reader fare in his test period? From the 24th November 2005, Richard Mark advised some 39 bets on the half time/full time results market (tipping either a win/win or draw/draw), and tipped just 2 winning matches returning 20 and 34.13 to 10% of betting bank ( 200). Now it s going to be the longest 7 minutes of his life if that few hundred pounds is going to be doubled! The results in this test period are just appalling and in no way mirror the claims made in the literature. This is the service as it stands from a punter s real experiences up until February. Available at www.richardmark.net for 97 for 6 months or 187 for 12 months, the select few football service just hasn t produced a profit for Mr Smith through his test period. Avoid! Beware The Fixed Odds Loophole! Here s the marketing hype: You Need Know Absolutely Nothing About Sports Betting... Or Even Care... TO BEAT THE BOOKIE OR HAVE THEM RETURN ALL, OR PART OF YOUR STAKE EVERY TIME... 100% GUARANTEED With claims like that I just had to buy it! What I received was a 13 page ebook spilling the beans. But what is this fixed odds loophole? Well, I was very disappointed. It s hardly a loophole at all. It s backing all outcomes in 3 matches and yes, you are guaranteed a return, but during my test period, my return was a lot less than I actually staked I mean, what s the point in that? The instructions within the ebook are unclear and I would have liked to see the systems in action. The basic premise behind the loophole is an interesting one. There are 27 outcomes in a 3 match bet can you work them out? The author advocates backing all outcomes. Naturally you will win, but some of the 27 bets will lose you money if they come in. A large slice of luck is needed to return you a profit. Let s say I staked 10 per line in a 27 line bet such as this. My stake is 270. My returns on 22 of the bets would lose me money and I would win on 5 of the bets. The odds are stacked against me. In order to return a profit I really need to back games where the prices for the win, draw and away win are all 9/4 or above this will never happen. True, 2 out of the 3 outcomes can be backed at 9/4 in some matches, but a home win will usually be shorter. Available at www.fixedoddsloophole.com for $97, if this system was more clearly explained with actual examples, I could join those people in the testimonials who are making it work (God knows how!) But as it stands not recommended! IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE PUBLISHER! How to Turn FREE Info Hidden in Your Local Council s Planning Office into a 25,000 79,500 Part-Time Sales Lead Brokerage Business By now you ll have noticed some additional information enclosed with this month s issue. I must confess, I m more excited about this business than any other I ve reviewed or come across in years. As soon as you read the details I guarantee you ll be itching to get involved yourself... So what s it all about? Well, in a nutshell, you simply pluck details of planning applications that are freely available from your local council s planning department and then turn it into a 25,000 79,500 part-time business! All you do is repackage this copyright free information and then sell it on as hot sales leads to builders, replacement window suppliers, kitchen fitters, alarm fitters, conservatory builders and hundreds of other local businesses. To see just how incredibly simple and easy to start this unique business model is PLUS details of my 6-month unconditional guarantee, please take a look at the full report or go directly to www.salesleadbrokerage.com. It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 Copyright What Really Wins Money 2006 12