Global Economic Indicators: Global Leading Indicators November 27, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-2-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents OECD Leading Indicators 1-7 BRICs Leading Indicators 8 OECD Leading Indicators 9 November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
Figure 1. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators 19 19 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Figure 2. OECD LEADING INDICATORS US (.7) Europe (.5) Japan (.1) 93 19 19 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 93 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
Figure 3. OECD LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators Europe (.5) Germany (.1) France (.5) Italy (.6) Spain (.9) United Kingdom (.5) 19 19 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. 108 Figure 4. OECD LEADING INDICATORS 108 Europe (.5) Greece (.6) Portugal (.2) Ireland (.6) Belgium (.2) Netherlands (.3) 19 19 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
Figure 5. OECD LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators Australia (.8) Canada (.4) 19 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 3 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
OECD Leading Indicators Figure 6. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 JAPAN 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 UNITED STATES GERMANY 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 92 CANADA FRANCE 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 UNITED KINGDOM ITALY 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 4 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
OECD Leading Indicators Figure 7. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS Australia CZECH REPUBLIC 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 92 EUROPE DENMARK 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 AUSTRIA FINLAND 110 105 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 90 BELGIUM 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 GREECE 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 5 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
OECD Leading Indicators 105 Figure 8. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS NEW ZEALAND Hungary 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 108 IRELAND NORWAY 92 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 MEXICO POLAND 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 NETHERLANDS 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 6 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
Figure 9. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators SWEDEN Portugal 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 110 SLOVAKIA SWITZERLAND 105 90 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 SPAIN TURKEY 115 110 105 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion; above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below 90 85 Page 7 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
BRICs Leading Indicators 105 Figure 10. BRAZIL (amplitude adjusted, nsa*) INDIA 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 92 CHINA 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 RUSSIA 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion; above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below 110 105 90 85 Page 8 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
OECD Leading Indicators Figure 11. BRICs LEADING INDICATORS Brazil (.3) China (.7) India (.9) Russia (.8) 92 92 90 19 19 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 90 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Figure 12. OECD LEADING INDICATORS & JP MORGAN GLOBAL COMPOSITE OUTPUT PMI Leading Indicators (.2) JP Morgan Global Composite Output PMI (50+ = expansion, sa) (54.0) 19 19 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Oct 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Source: JP Morgan, Markit, OECD, and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.
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