OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO 2020 11. Symposium Energieinnovation 23 February 2010 Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbH 10. Februar 2010 Research Energy Studies Consulting Training
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Preise Nymex WTl & US Dollar Vs Euro [$/bbl, USD] 170 1.62 150 WTI Nymex - left scale Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate - right scale 1.56 130 1.50 110 1.44 90 1.38 70 1.32 50 1.26 30 Source: Nymex & ECB Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 1.20 23 February 2010 Slide 3
Preise - Volumen 2003 Daily Average Of Volumes ICE Brent Traded On ICE 2004 2005 ICE Brent 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sources: ICE 2010 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 23 February 2010 Slide 4
Preise Crude Oil Price and Influence of Managed Money [$/bbl] 160 140 Weekly Average of NYMEX WTI Frontline Prediction based on Managed Money Long Positions 120 100 80 60 40 20 Data on managed money long positions improves the naïve forecast considerably 0 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 May 07 Aug 07 Nov 07 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 23 February 2010 Slide 5
Preise 60 Estimated Oil in Floating Storage as of end-january 2010 50 70-80 million barrels of middle distillates 2-4 million barrels crude 40 8-12 million barrels crude 5-10 million barrels of middle distillates EUROPE 30 20 USGC 3.5 million barrels Gasoline PG Asia/Pacific Floating Storage [mbbls] Crude Gas Oil/Jet/Kero WAF end-mar '09 30-40 8-10 20-24 million end-apr '09 100-105 20-25 barrels crude 10 end-may'09 80-90 30-35 end-jun '09 65-70 50-55 end-jul '09 55 55-60 end-aug '09 40-50 45-55 end-sep '09 34-46 60-70 0 end-oct '09 40-45 85-95 Source: Floating JBC Energy estimate based end-jan on end-feb end-mar end-apr end-may end-june end-nov end-july'09 end-aug 34-40 end-sept 90-95 end-oct info from Storage SSY, Platts, Charles R. Weber, end-dec '09 40-45 95-100 Argus, [mbbls] WSJ, Gibson, Thomson Reuters end-jan '10 30-38 75-85 23 February 2010 Slide 6
Preise - Gas 65 60 55 Russia Natural Gas Title Production [unit] [bcm; $/MMBtu] Average Production 2005-2008 2009 Production German Border Gas Price - right scale 17.5 15.0 12.5 50 10.0 45 7.5 40 5.0 35 2.5 30 Source: Federal State Statistics Service Russia, JBC Energy Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.0 23 February 2010 Slide 7
Preise - Gas 35 European Price Comparison [$ per MMBtu] 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NWE Gas Oil 0.1% FOB NWE 1% FOB German Border Nat Gas Price JBC View 0.1% Gas Oil JBC View LSFO JBC View German Border Price Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 23 February 2010 Slide 8
Angebot Gas Reserven 50 Proved Natural Gas Reserves 2008 [trillion cubic metres] 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Oil & Gas Journal Russia Iran Qatar Saudi A. UAE USA Nigeria 23 February 2010 Slide 9
Angebot Gas Natural Gas Production Growth in Selected Countries [bcm] Qatar Iran China Algeria Saudi Arabia Australia Turkmenistan Indonesia UAE Norway Trinidad and Tobago Egypt Oman Iraq Malaysia Yemen Uzbekistan Mexico Russia Netherlands Canada United States UK 2008-2010 2010-2012 2012-2014 -50-25 0 25 50 75 100 125 23 February 2010 Slide 10
Angebot Öl Reserven OPEC/Non-OPEC Oil Reserves (2009) OPEC holds 70% of world reserves but produces only 40% of global oil production at the moment!!! Non-OPEC Oil Reserves: ~ 407 billion barrels as of January 2009 30% 70% OPEC Oil Reserves: ~ 935 billion barrels as of January 2009 World Proven Oil & Gas Reserves by Type of Company [%] Super Majors 3% Source: OGJ 2009 Other Private Companies Russian State-Controlled Companies National Iranian Oil Company 25% Private companies = 28% Kuwait Petroleum Company Saudi Aramco 25% Pemex (Mexico) Iraqi Oil Companies Other NOCs The proportion would be more in favour of NOCs if only oil was accounted for! 6% 1% 9% NOCs = 72% 13% Source: IEA WEO 2008 5% 13% 23 February 2010 Slide 11
Angebot Nicht-OPEC-Staaten Oil Supply Growth of Selected Non-OPEC Countries ['000 b/d] Brazil Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Canada Colombia Congo Indonesia China Vietnam 2010 N. Zealand 2011 Russia Australia 2012 Sudan 2013 Oman Malaysia Yemen 2014 2015 Syria US UK Mexico Norway -1,000-800 -600-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 23 February 2010 Slide 12
Angebot Nicht-OPEC-Staaten 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 Non-OPEC Supply Growth by Source [mbpd] Processing Gains Other Liquids NGLs Crude Total Supply Growth 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 23 February 2010 Slide 13
Angebot OPEC OPEC Crude Output (Historic Members) and OPEC Share in World Crude Supply [mbpd;%] 50 45 40 35 30 OPEC Crude Production - left scale Share of OPEC in World Crude Output - right scale New High (absolute) in 2008: 32 mbpd High (absolute) in 1977: 31.6 mbpd 60% 55% 50% 45% 25 40% 20 15 OPEC cuts and Indonesia leaving the organisation result in lower output in 2009 35% 10 30% 5 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 25% 23 February 2010 Slide 14
Angebot Szenarien 15.0 13.5 12.0 10.5 Iraqi Crude Production Capacity - Various Scenarios [mbpd] Rumaila West Qurna Zubair West Qurna Phase 2 Majnoon Halfaya Gharaf Badrah Qayara Najmah Other Fields JBC Energy - 2009 Base Case JBC Energy - Optimistic Scenario 9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 Source: JBC Energy, Iraqi Oil Ministry 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 23 February 2010 Slide 15
Angebot Szenarien 6.4 Iranian Crude Production [mbpd] Iranian Crude Output - Base Case Scenario 5.6 4.8 Iranian Crude Output - Worst Case Scenario Iranian Crude Output - Smooth Regime Change Scenario 4.0 3.2 2.4 1.6 0.8 Production levels would be close to lows during the early 1980s and close to current crude intake into refineries 0.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 23 February 2010 Slide 16
Angebot Szenarien Change in OPEC Oil Output by Historic Member Countries (Basis 1979) ['000 b/d] 4 2 0 Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela Qatar Libya Indonesia UAE Algeria Nigeria Ecuador Gabon -2-4 -6-8 -10-12 -14-16 Source: OPEC, BP, JBC Energy -18 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 23 February 2010 Slide 17
Angebot Szenarien 14 OPEC Available Spare Capacity [mbpd] 12 10 Spare Capacity - 2009 Base Case Optimistic Scenario - Iraq Best Case Scenario - Iraq Worst Case Scenario - Iran 8 6 Avg. spare capacity 1960-2007 4 2 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 23 February 2010 Slide 18
Angebot Szenarien 9 8 7 OPEC Available Spare Capacity [mbpd] Additional Global Demand Increase Additional Non-OPEC Supply Decline New Spare Capacity - Optimistic Scenario Iraq 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 23 February 2010 Slide 19
Nachfrage World Oil Demand Growth vs. GDP Growth 2000-2015 (Y-o-Y) [mbpd, %] 5.0 5.0% 4.0 4.0% 3.0 3.0% 2.0 2.0% 1.0 1.0% 0.0 0.0% -1.0-2.0 World Oil Demand Growth OECD Oil Demand Growth Non-OECD Oil Demand Growth World GDP Growth - right scale -1.0% -2.0% -3.0 Source: JBC Energy, Global Insight 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-3.0% 23 February 2010 Slide 20
Nachfrage 900 Passenger Car Ownership and per Capita GDP 1994-2008 800 Passenger cars per 1000 people 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 China India United States Germany Japan South Korea 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 per capita GDP (based on purchasing power parity, '000 USD) Source: UN, IMF 23 February 2010 Slide 21
Nachfrage China & India Demand Scenarios Based On Per Capita Consumption [mbpd] 40 32 24 China Oil Demand China Oil Demand at double per capita growth India Oil Demand - right scale India Oil Demand at double per capita growth - right scale Per Capita Oil Demand [bbl/year/capita] 2010 2030 China D/C 2.3 4.3 Average growth in C hinese D/C 3.2% China D/C double growth speed 2.5 8.2 India D/C 1.0 1.4 Average growth in Indian D/C 1.7% India D/C double growth s peed 1.1 2.1 J apanes e D/C 11.8 8.9 US D/C 21.8 15.1 China: +15 mbpd India: +2.6 mbpd 9 8 7 6 16 5 8 4 0 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 3 23 February 2010 Slide 22
Preisausblick 160 Oil Price Forecast [$/bbl] 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 23 February 2010 Slide 23
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