Market Briefing: Commodity Prices December 28, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Commodity Price Indexes 1-2 Energy 3-4 Basic Metals 5 Lumber 6 Precious Metals 7-8 Agriculture 9-10 Misc: CRB Index 11-12 Misc: Energy 13-14 Misc: Agriculture 15 Misc: Precious Metals 16 Misc: Grains 17-18 December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
Figure 1. Commodity Price Indexes CRB SPOT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX: ALL COMMODITIES* (1967=) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter, soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 2. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=, daily) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 1 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
1 10 Figure 3. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=) Commodity Price Indexes 1 10 9 8 9 8 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index (514.1) Metals Component* (908.8) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Includes scrap copper, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. 675 Figure 4. COMMODITY PRICES (1967=) 675 575 575 475 CRB Price Indexes CRB Raw Industrials Spot CRB Futures 475 375 375 275 275 175 175 75 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 75 Page 2 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
Energy 160 Figure 5. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) 160 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 90 90 80 80 70 60 Price (66.44) 12/27 70 60 40 40 30 30 20 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20 10 -day moving average * Nearby futures price. 4.5 Figure 6. GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon) 4.5 3.9 Price (1.79) 3.9 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.5.9.9.3 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018.3 -day moving average Page 3 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
4.6 4.2 Figure 7. HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per gallon) Energy 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.0 Price (2.05) 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0.6.2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018.6.2 -day moving average 18 16 Figure 8. NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per MMBTU) 18 16 14 14 12 Price (2.91) 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 2 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 2 0 -day moving average Page 4 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
1 Figure 9. Basic Metals CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (daily, 1967=) 1 1 1 900 900 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -day moving average * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Figure 10. COPPER FUTURES PRICE* (cents per pound) Price (329) 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -day moving average * Nearby futures contract. Page 5 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
525 475 Figure 11. RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES PRICE* ($/0 board ft) Lumber 525 475 425 425 375 375 325 325 275 275 225 225 175 175 125 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 125 -day moving average Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Page 6 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
Precious Metals 1975 1 Figure 12. GOLD CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce) D A 1975 1 1625 1625 1 Price (1291.00) 1 1275 1275 1 1 925 925 575 575 225 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -day moving average D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy. Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics. Figure 13. SILVER CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce) Price (16.84) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -day moving average 225 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 Page 7 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
2 2 Figure 14. PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) Precious Metals 2 2 0 Price (926.90) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 -day moving average 1 Figure 15. PALLADIUM CASH PRICE ($/troy oz) 1 0 12/19 0 Price (1021.00) 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -day moving average 0 Page 8 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
19 1 Figure 16. SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Agriculture 19 1 1 1 Price (945.75) 1 1 1 1 9 9 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 -day moving average 8 Figure 17. CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 8 Price (352.00) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -day moving average Page 9 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
1 1 1 1 0 900 Figure 18. WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Agriculture Price (427.75) 1 1 1 1 0 900 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -day moving average 2.5 Figure 19. COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound) 2.5 2.0 2.0 Price (0.79) 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0.5.5.0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018.0 -day moving average Page 10 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
Figure 20. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* & RECESSIONS (1967=, daily) Misc: CRB Index 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Weekly from 1962 to 1982, daily thereafter. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 21. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967= ratio scale) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 11 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
1 1 10 9 8 Figure 22. CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (1967=, ratio scale) Misc: CRB Index 1 1 10 9 8 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. 670 570 470 Figure 23. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=, ratio scale) 670 570 470 370 370 270 270 170 170 70 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 70 * Weekly from 1951 to 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 12 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
140 130 120 110 90 80 Figure 24. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) Misc: Energy 140 130 120 110 90 80 70 60 40 30 20 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12/27 70 60 40 30 20 10 * Nearby futures price. Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics. 160 Figure 25. COMMODITY PRICES: INDUSTRIAL vs CRUDE OIL 160 140 140 120 120 80 80 60 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 12/27 60 40 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) 40 20 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20 * Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 13 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
Misc: Energy 3.8 3.6 Figure 26. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS FUTURES PRICES* (dollars per gallon) 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 Heating Oil (2.05) Gasoline (1.79) 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0.8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1.0.8 Figure 27. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel) 12/27 0 46 48 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 * Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 1946 to 1984, daily thereafter. Page 14 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
8 Figure 28. CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Misc: Agriculture 8 19 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 0 900 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound) 19 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 0 900 0 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -day moving average * Nearby contract, closing price. 0 Page 15 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
1975 1 1625 1 1275 1 925 575 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 Figure 29. GOLD FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) Misc: Precious Metals 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1975 1 1625 1 1275 1 925 575 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE ($/troy oz) 12/19 1 0 0 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -day moving average 0 Page 16 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
Figure 30. S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX (January 5, 1970=) Misc: Grains 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Figure 31. S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX (December 31, 1969=) 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 17 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
0 9 900 8 Figure 32. S&P GSCI WHEAT INDEX (December 31, 1969=) 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Misc: Grains 0 9 900 8 Figure 33. S&P GSCI CORN INDEX (December 31 1969=) 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 18 / December 28, 2017 / Commodity Prices www.
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