Lobster Market Analysis Policy and Economics Branch DFO Gulf Region May 2008 1
Commercially landed lobster species (Volume landed in 2006 x 1,000 m.t.) LOBSTERS (251) CLAWED LOBSTERS (170) UNCLAWED LOBSTERS (82) True Lobsters (98) Scampi (71) Warmwater (Florida, Caribbean, Latin America) (36) NSPF (2) (Mainly from Africa) American Lobster (94) European Lobster (4) Mainly Norway Lobster (70) Mainly Caribbean Spiny Lobster (33) Mainly Australian Spiny Lobster (10) Source: FAO, compilation DFO PEB Gulf Region 2
World lobster fishery : American lobster vs. all American lobster Other 300 250 200 150 100 50-1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2006 (x 1,000 m.t.) Source: FAO, compilation DFO - PEB Gulf Region 3
World Distribution of Lobster With % of volume landed in 2006 according to the FAO European & (1%) American Norway American &(28%) 38% Norway (26%) 36% European (2%) Warmwater 14% Warmwater 17% Coldwater 18% 17% 4
Nfld 2,644 Quebec 3,239 American Lobster: World Landings 56% 5% 6% 33% Gulf 17,089 (x 1,000 m.t.) Canada 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 - USA Maritimes 29,110 Total Canada 2006p : 52, 082 m.t. Source: DFO, compilation PEB, Gulf Region 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2006 Source: FAO, compilation DFO-PEB, Gulf Region 5
American Lobster: Exports 2006p US 801,304 Canada 80% Total 2006p: 1 billion CAD Europe 135,965 Japan 33,867 14% Other 32,086 3% 3% Source: Statistics Canada, compilitation DFO - PEB, Gulf Region Canada 165,280 47% Europe 150,549 43% US Japan 7,401 Other 27,386 Total 2006p: 350 million USD 2% 3% Source: NMFS, compilitation DFO - PEB, Gulf Region 6
American Lobster: Canadian Exports by Province Volume (m.t.) Value (000$) 500,000 30,000 m.t. 450,000 (000$) 25,000 400,000 350,000 20,000 300,000 250,000 15,000 200,000 10,000 150,000 100,000 5,000 50,000 - - 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 NB NS PEI Qc NL Source: Statistics Canada, compilation DFO-PEB, Gulf Region 7
American Lobster : Monthly World Landings, Wholesale & Landed Prices Volume Landed US Volume Landed Canada Avrg Wholesale Price - Live 11/2 lbs (CAD/lb) Avrg Landed Price Canada (CAD/lb) 25 20 15 10 10.27 8.59 7.28 5.66 8.79 5.83 9.58 6.30 8.86 5.53 9.26 8.31 8.70 6.14 6.11 6.03 7.43 5.24 8.26 5.79 7.01 7.13 5.32 5.18 5 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec x 1,000 m.t. 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 CAD/lb 2.00-2006 Source: DFO, NMFS, Urner Barry's, Bank of Canada, compilation DFO-PEB, Gulf Region 8
American Lobster: Landings and Landed Prices by Size Canada x 1,000 m.t. 45 40 35 30 Volume Canner Landed Price Canner Volume Market Landed Price Market 7.00 CAD/lb 6.00 5.00 25 4.00 20 15 10 5 3.00 2.00 1.00-1997 1998 1999 2006p Source: DFO, compilation PEB, Gulf Region - 9
American Lobster: Landed Price by DFO Region 7.00 6.00 Gulf Maritimes NL Quebec 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2006p CAD/lb Source: DFO, compilation PEB, Gulf Region 10
American Lobster: Gulf Region Landings and Landed Price by Size x 1,000 m.t. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Volume Canner Landed Price Canner Volume Market Landed Price Market 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - CAD/lb 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2006 2007p Source: DFO, compilation PEB, Gulf Region 11
American Lobster: Gulf Region Processing Value (2006p) Fresh Meal 0.1% In Shell 14% Other 2% 16% Meat 30% Tails 54% 84% Frozen Source: DFO, compilation PEB, Gulf Region Total 2006p: $ 519 million 12
American Lobster Markets: Average Wholesale Price (in USD/lb) Live 11/2 lbs Meat (CKL) Cooked 2 lbs Tails 4-5 oz 19.66 17.76 18.25 13.07 12.84 12.09 12.18 14.35 14.68 14.23 14.32 14.09 14.38 14.28 12.80 15.79 13.95 16.48 15.67 17.99 17.79 17.02 5.52 5.70 5.92 6.29 6.19 5.91 6.92 6.79 7.53 7.03 8.29 1997 1998 1999 2006 2007 Source: Urner Barry's, compilation DFO, PEB, Gulf Region 13
Live Lobster Market: Wholesale Price and Exchange Rate Exchange rate Wholesale (USD/lb) - Live 11/2 lb 12.00 $/lb Landed (CAD/lb) - Market Wholesale (CAD/lb) - Live 11/2 lb 2 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 0.72 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.65 0.64 0.71 0.77 0.83 0.88 0.93 1 2.00 0.00 1997 1998 1999 2006 2007 Source: Urner Barry's, Bank of Canada, DFO, compilation DFO-PEB, Gulf Regio 0 14
American Lobster: Outlook for 2008 Live Lobster 1 lb New England Market 16.00 USD/lb CAD/lb yearly average - CAD 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 May-03 8.46 May-04 7.77 May-05 7.90 May-06 6.97 May-07 8.11 May-08 6.58 4.00 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Source: Urner Barry's, Bank of Canada, compilation MPO-PEB, Gulf Region 15
American Lobster: Products quoted on wholesale markets (according to Urner Barry s Comtell) 1 lb 11/8 lbs 11/4 lbs 11/2 lbs 2 lbs 21/2 lbs Live Culls-Small Culls-Large Up to 3 lbs Corresponding carapace length mm 82.5 86.4 89.5 95 105 114 >121 3 3/16 3 ⅜ 3½ 3¾ 3⅛ 4½ >4 ¾ Source: M. Comeau(DFO-Science), pers. comm. Tails 3 oz 3-4 oz 4 oz 4-5 oz 5-6 oz 6-7 oz Meat Corresponding carapace length mm 75 mm 75-83 mm 83 mm 83 89.5 mm 89.5-92 mm 92-101 mm Cooked2 lbs., Vacuum Pack, Claw Knuckle Cooked2 lbs., Vacuum Pack, Claw Knuckle Leg 3 3-3 3/16 3 3/16 3 3/16-3½ 3½ - 3¾ 3¾ -4 Source: Gulf Region s producers, pers. comm. 16
Lobster Tail Market: American Lobster Avrg USD/lb In 2007 Coldwater (West Australia) Avrg USD/lb In 2007 Warmwater (Caribbean) Avrg USD/lb In 2007 3 oz 17.88 3-4 oz 18.27 Brazil 5 oz Caribbean 5 oz 4 oz 4-5 oz 18.91 19.66 South Africa 5.5-6.5 oz.g American Lobster 5-6 oz 37.00 West Australia 5-6 oz.a 5-6 oz 6-7 oz 20.71 21.60 5-6 oz A 6-8 oz B 32.80 30.46 5oz 6 oz 21.57 21.58 USD/lb 32.00 8-10 oz C 10-12 oz D 29.63 30.43 7 oz 8 oz 21.58 21.61 27.00 12-14 oz E1 32.36 9 oz 21.46 22.00 12-16 oz E 14-16 oz E2 32.36 32.30 10 oz 11 oz 21.46 21.46 17.00 16-20 oz F 34.87 12-14 oz 21.46 12.00 20-24 oz G 34.87 14-16 oz 21.46 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2006 2007 24 oz &Up 34.87 16-20 oz 21.46 Source: Urner Barry's, compilation DFO-PEB, Gulf Region 20-24 oz 21.06 Source: Urner Barry s 17
Processed Lobster: Yield Issues Product Live Whole Cooked Tail in shell Meat & Tail (in shell) Fall/Maine Lobster Yield 100% 97% 23-25% 38-43% 20 28% Source: MPO-science pers. comm. & Gulf Region s producers, pers. comm. 18