LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 EUROPEAN REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH INDEX LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 1
01 METHODOLOGY 02 2017 RESULTS 03 THE CONSISTENT: KEY TARGET MARKETS 04 THE AFFLUENT: SOLID BUT EXPENSIVE 05 THE MOVERS: EITHER RECOVERING OR STRUCTURALLY IMPROVING 06 THE ASPIRING: ATTRACTIVE BUT FEW TRANSPARENT MARKETS LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 2
1. Methodology LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 3
LaSalle European Regional Economic Growth Index INTRODUCTION TO LASALLE E-REGI INDEX LaSalle E-REGI Index Launched in 2000-2017 is the 18 th edition of the LaSalle E-REGI index Shows relative economic performance - compared to the European average Europe-wide coverage - 32 countries - 295 European regions - Focus on 100 cities Strong relationship with real estate - Proxy for occupier demand - Framework for investment LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 4
Components of E-REGI score E-REGI METHODOLOGY E-REGI Score 20% Wealth GDP per Capita current 60% Growth Business Environment 15% 22.5% LaSalle European Human Capital Index 2017 Service Employment: 5 year forecast: growth and absolute 3 year historic growth 20% Political Stability, Default, Regulatory and Trade Credit Risk, Inclusion in EU/EMU current 22.5% GDP: 5 year forecast: growth and absolute 3 year historic growth LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 5
Zoom on LaSalle European Human Capital Index INCLUDED IN LASALLE E-REGI INDEX SINCE 2016 THEME INDICATOR VARIABLE DATA SOURCE Skilled Workforce Education level Tertiary Education Attainment Level of population aged 30-34 years Eurostat Quality of education University Ranking score Center for World University Rankings (CWUR) Creativity Patent production Number of patents filed OECD Agglomeration effect Population density Eurostat Investments R&D Investments R&D expenditure as % GDP Eurostat Tech Venture Capital Investments Venture capital investments in Tech firms Thomson Reuters LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 6
Three categories of regions in the index E-REGI METHODOLOGY All European regions (n=295) E-REGI 2017 scores 2.50 Regions with Strong Scores Regions with Medium Scores Regions with Weak Scores 2.00 1.50 1.00 European average = 1 0.50 0.00 Other Regions Cities with Strong Scores Cities with Medium Scores Cities with Weak Scores LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 7
Robust relationship between E-REGI performance & occupier demand AVERAGE CORRELATION OF 62% BETWEEN E-REGI SCORE & OFFICE TAKE-UP 0.80 Correlation between E-REGI score & office take-up in 3 following years 33 office markets 0.60 49% 55% 64% 67% 68% 72% 64% 65% 65% 51% 68% 53% 63% 64% 62% 0.40 0.20 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Correlation Average LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 8
2. 2017 Results LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 9
2017 Headline results Top 15 LaSalle E-REGI 2016 1. Paris 2. London 3. Stockholm 4. Munich 5. Luxembourg 6. Istanbul 7. Dublin 8. Madrid 9. Stuttgart 10. Oslo 11. Copenhagen-Malmö 12. Zürich 13. Lyon 14. Brussels 15. Barcelona LaSalle E-REGI 2017 1. London 2. Paris 3. Stockholm 4. Istanbul 5. Dublin 6. Luxembourg 7. Munich 8. Oslo 9. Stuttgart 10. Copenhagen-Malmö 11. Zürich 12. Madrid 13. Berlin 14. Brussels 15. Lyon +3 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 10
2017 Headline results score components LaSalle E-REGI 2017 1. London 2. Paris 3. Stockholm 4. Istanbul 5. Dublin 6. Luxembourg 7. Munich 8. Oslo 9. Stuttgart 10. Copenhagen-Malmö 11. Zürich 12. Madrid 13. Berlin 14. Brussels 15. Lyon 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 0.66 0.72 0.86 0.54 0.77 0.68 0.50 0.60 0.49 0.52 0.45 0.42 0.34 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.34 0.34 2017 Scores GDP Employment Human Capital Wealth Business Environment LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 11
E-REGI 2017 - Scores Source: LaSalle, 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 12
Four groups of cities The Consistent The Movers Tier 1 London Paris Munich Stockholm Amsterdam Hamburg Frankfurt Brussels Madrid Milan Berlin Tier 2 Stuttgart Düsseldorf Vienna Birmingham Lyon Leipzig-Dresden Utrecht Bologna Edinburgh Cologne-Bonn Helsinki Copenhagen Glasgow Marseille-Nice Gothenburg Liverpool Lille Barcelona Dublin Manchester Bristol Rotterdam-The Hague Valencia Bilbao Seville Lisbon Rome Athens Tier 3 Cardiff Leeds Sheffield Nottingham-Derby Nantes Bordeaux Toulouse Verona-Venice Strasbourg Nuremberg Mannheim-Karlsruhe Turin Zaragoza Newcastle Thessaloniki The Affluent The Aspiring Tier 1 Warsaw Moscow Istanbul Luxembourg Zürich Prague Krakow Wroclaw Budapest Tier 2 Oslo Geneva Bratislava Ljubljana Bucharest Sofia Vilnius Tallinn Riga Izmir Ankara Tier 3 Bern Basel Antwerp Genoa Tricity Katowice Poznan LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 13
3. The Consistent: key target markets LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 14
The Consistent Most of core Europe Helsinki Glasgow Edinburgh Stockholm Gothenburg Copenhagen-Malmö Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Liverpool Birmingham London Lille Amsterdam Brussels Hamburg Utrecht Dresden- Leipzig Düsseldorf Cologne-Bonn Frankfurt Paris Stuttgart Munich Vienna Lyon Bologna Toulouse Marseille-Nice Naples LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 15
The Consistent: London & Paris neck and neck at the top this year VERY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN SCORES BETWEEN THE TWO GLOBAL CITIES 2.60 E-REGI Scores & Ranks # over time The Consistent # 1 London 2.40 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 # 2 # 6 # 1 # 4 # 3 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 2 # 2 # 2 # 1 # 2 # 3 # 1 # 2 # 8 # 2 # 1 # 4 # 2 # 4 # 1 # 1 # 3 # 4 # 2 # 2 # 2 # 2 Paris 1.00 0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 16
The Consistent: Stockholm & Munich have improved over the last 18Y FRANKFURT IS THE MOST STABLE! 2.00 E-REGI Scores over time The Consistent Stockholm 1.80 Munich 1.60 1.40 Brussels Frankfurt Amsterdam 1.20 Hamburg 1.00 0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 17
How to find attractive risk-adjusted opportunities in Consistent cities? 3 OPTIONS 1 Focus on the U (Urbanisation) of DTU+E 2 Take core+ risks in established locations 3 Invest in alternative sectors LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 18
How to select Tier-2 markets within the Consistent? WHERE TO FIND VALUE OUTSIDE TIER-1 MARKETS? Strong cities Stuttgart Lyon Helsinki Utrecht Toulouse Düsseldorf Cologne-Bonn Marseille-Nice Edinburgh Birmingham Bremen Leipzig-Dresden Bologna Weaker cities Lille Glasgow Liverpool Naples LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 19
4. The Affluent: solid but expensive LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 20
The Affluent The wealthiest cities Oslo Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Antwerp Luxembourg Basel-Mulhouse Zürich Geneva Bern Genoa LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 21
Strong performance of Swiss cities driven by wealth & human capital STRONG PERFORMING CITIES BUT WITH SMALL INVESTABLE STOCK AND ACTIVE DOMESTIC INVESTORS 2.00 E-REGI Scores over time The Affluent Luxembourg 1.80 1.60 Zürich 1.40 Geneva 1.20 Basel-Mulhouse 1.00 0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 22
5. The Movers: either recovering or structurally improving LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 23
The Movers Cyclical and structural Movers Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Dublin Manchester Berlin Bristol Rotterdam-The Hague Milan Bilbao Madrid Barcelona Rome Lisbon Valencia Seville Athens LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 24
The Movers: Cyclical Movers include Dublin, Milan & Spanish cities MILAN HAS ONLY PARTIALLY RECOVERED ITS PRE-GFC PERFORMANCE 2.00 E-REGI Scores over time The Cyclical Movers Dublin 1.80 1.60 1.40 Madrid Barcelona 1.20 Milan 1.00 0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 25
The Movers: Structural Movers are Berlin, R dam, Bristol & Manchester MANCHESTER NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY BREXIT LAST YEAR BUT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS UPWARD TREND 1.60 E-REGI Scores over time The Structural Movers Berlin 1.40 Rotterdam 1.20 Bristol 1.00 Manchester 0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 26
6. The Aspiring: attractive but few transparent markets LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 27
The Aspiring Growth-driven but lack of transparency St Petersburg Tallinn Moscow Riga Vilnius Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Poznan Warsaw Wroclaw Prague Bratislava Krakow Ljubljana Budapest Bucharest Sofia Istanbul Ankara Izmir, JLL LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 28
The Aspiring Growth-driven but lack of transparency St Petersburg Tallinn Moscow Riga Vilnius Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Lodz Warsaw Wroclaw Prague Krakow Bratislava Ljubljana Budapest Bucharest Zagreb Sofia Istanbul Ankara Izmir, JLL LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 29
Warsaw has a stronger growth outlook but Prague is more balanced MOST ASPIRING CITIES DO NOT OFFER SUFFICIENT TRANSPARENCY / LIQUIDITY BUT OFFER DIVERSIFICATION 1.60 E-REGI Score over time The Aspiring 1.40 Warsaw 1.20 Prague 1.00 0.80 0.60 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 30
LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 Visit the online page to download the report (available in English & in German), to access the interactive map and to watch our animation video www.lasalle.com/research/e-regi LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 31
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