Canadian Housing In Flux
|
|
- Stuart Daniel
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist Dominion Lending Centres The Title of the presentation Second line if needed Third line if needed Canadian Housing In Flux Today s date Location of presentation March 1, 2018
2 Canada s Positive Surprises Job Growth Strong Alberta Begins Recovery But NAFTA Looms Large Housing Slows Consumers Spending Slows
3 Canada Led G7 In Population and GDP Growth Last Year Population Growth (annual average growth from , % change) Real GDP Growth 2017 (annual percentage change) Canada U.S. U.K. Italy France Germany Japan -0.1 Canada Germany U.S. France U.K. Japan Italy Source: Scotia Bank Economics, BMO Nesbitt Burns Economics
4 Canadian Growth Slows in 2018 Real GDP (percent change) 6 3 Quarter/Quarter (a.r.) Forecast 0-3 Year/Year Forecast = BMO Capital Markets Economics Source: Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, Royal Bank of Canada Economics
5 U.S. Growth Moves Up Real GDP (year/year % percent) Canada U.S Canada Forecast United States Forecast = BMO Capital Markets Economics Source: Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, Bureau of Economic Analysis
6 Unemployment Rate (percent) % 8.7% U.S. Forecast year Low 5.9% Canada 5 5.9% % % Source: Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 B.C. on Top As Alberta Climbs Back Canada: Real GDP Provincial Forecast (year/year % change) BC AB ON MB CA QC SK PEI NS NB NL AB 2.5 BC 2.4 ON MB 2.2 CA 2.1 SK 2.0 QC 1.3 PEI 1.1 NS 0.9 NB 0.0 NL Forecast = BMO Capital Markets Economics
8 People Left Oil-Torn Provinces For Ontario and B.C. Interprovincial Migrants (level, 4-quarter moving average) 9,000 8,000 7,000 British Columbia 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Ontario Source: Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada
9 Financial Markets Bank of Canada Cautious Fed Raises Rates Mortgage Rates Rising
10 Bank Of Canada Hikes Rates Overnight Rate (percent) 6 5 Forecast Record Lows % U.S. Canada Forecast = Sherry Cooper Assoc. Source: Haver Analytics, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve Board
11 Long Yields Edge Upward On Fed Rate Hikes 10-year Bond Yields (percent) 6 5 U.S. Forecast As of February 28 U.S. = 2.86% Canada = 2.23% Canada % 3.25% Forecast = BMO Capital Markets Source: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve Board
12 Mortgage Rates Have Bottomed Posted 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (percent, 3-month moving average, as of February 28, 2018) Source: Haver Analytics
13 Upside for Mortgage Rates (percent) as of February 28, year Bond Yield (lhs) More Upward Pressure 68% or More Fixed Rate New Buyers Hurt The Most Resets Soon At Higher Rates Posted 5-year Mortgage Rate (lhs) Haver Analytics, Mortgage Professionals of Canada
14 Housing Looms Large But Vulnerable Huge Part of Economy Overblown Bubble Worries Exaggerated Debt Concerns Govt Clamps Down OSFI Stress Testing Housing Slows Markets Now Balanced CMHC Rule Changes Benefit Big Banks Over Alternative Lenders
15 Growth Housing Led...But Slowing Canada (percent) 8.0 Construction Jobs/Total Housing/GDP Source: Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada
16 Housing Growth Slows Tightening Continues Consumer Spending and Housing as a share of GDP (%) Credit Conditions Tightened Banks Downgraded Insured Mortgages Decline Appraisers Lowering Values Another OSFI Move Risk Sharing With CMHC Source: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
17 Debt-Financed Bubble Worry Real House Price Index (index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted) Canada United States Source: Federal Reserve Board of Dallas
18 Rising Risks: Record High Debt-to-GDP Household Debt as a Percentage of GDP (March 2005 = 100) Canada Australia United States Germany Source: Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
19 Over-Extended Debtors A Small Segment 40% of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free 33% of Households Are Debt-Free 25% Have Less Than $25k in Debt So 58% of Households Nearly Debt Free Hence, Low Mortgage Delinquencies Only 20%-to-30% Need CMHC Insurance Most Loans Are Fixed Rate
20 Bank Mortgage Books Are Rock Solid More Than 99% of Royal Bank s Uninsured Mortgage Portfolio Borrowers Have Credit Scores >650 And a LTVs of <75% Its Average Uninsured Mortgage Has Almost 50% Equity
21 Mortgage Arrears Very Low (percent) Mortgage Delinquency Rate (lhs) 0.2 Unemployment Rate (rhs) Shaded regions represent periods of Canadian recessions Source: Haver Analytics, CBA, Statistics Canada
22 Canadian Homeownership Ratio Falls Homeowners as a % of all Canadian Households (percent) First Decline in History of Data Source: Statistics Canada, Censuses of Population, 1971 to 2006 and National Household Survey, 2011
23 But Unaffordable In Vancouver and Toronto (seasonally adjusted: January 1995 = 100) Average Home Prices Wages & Salaries Source: Haver Analytics, CREA, Statistics Canada
24 Toronto and Vancouver Prices Lag Global Cities Buyer price per square meter, Apartment (US$/square meter) Source: Sherry Cooper Assoc. Hong Kong London, UK Singapore Tokyo Tel Aviv Beijing SanFrancisco New York Sydney Paris Stockholm Rome Oslo Vancouver Helsinki Auckland Moscow Copenhagen Los Angeles Toronto Madrid 5,633 5,561 5,257 5,139 4,357 7,333 6,867 6,670 10,163 9,340 8,653 12,029 11,985 11,891 10,487 10,362 15,078 14,876 18,095 17,524 25,672
25 Home Sales Decline In ON and B.C. Existing Home Sales (year/year % change, January 2018) BC AB Atlantic QC SK Canada MB ON Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, Haver Analytics
26 Toronto Markets Now Balanced (ratio, January 2018) 1.0 Toronto Area Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio Seller s Market Buyer s Market Balanced Market Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, Haver Analytics
27 Vancouver Markets Now Balanced (ratio, January 2018) Vancouver Area Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio Seller s Market Balanced Market Buyer s Market Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, Haver Analytics
28 Condo Prices Hold Better Than Single Family Homes MLS Home Price Index (HPI) (6-month percentage change: as of January 2018) Halifax-Dartmouth* Vancouver: Condos St. John s* Winnipeg* Victoria Ottawa Toronto: Condos Montreal Moncton Vancouver: Single Family Canada Calgary Saskatoon Regina Toronto: Single Family *Using average home prices; year/year % change. Data as of December 2017 Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) Average Home Price $291k $665k $318k $280k $633k $370k $470k $331k $177k $1.601k $602k $426k $293k $279k $854k
29 Home Price Forecast MLS Home Price Index (year/year % change, annual, December) MLS Home Price Index (year-over-year % change, Dec.) Vancouver Toronto f 5.0? 5.0? White bar indicates forecast. Source: CREA, Haver Analytics
30 The Title of the presentation Second line if needed Third line if needed Follow Me On Twitter.com/DrSherryCooper #DrSherryCooper Linkedin.com/in/DrSherryCooper Today s date Location of presentation March 1, 2018 Facebook.com/DrSherryCooper
Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals April 2016 Craig Wright (SVP & Chief Economist) (416) 974-7457 craig.wright@rbc.com Volatility index Market volatility index, (VIX) 90 80 70
More informationGlobal economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
More informationEconomic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant
More information32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference
32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference Economic Intelligence September 21 st, 2017 Toronto Peter Norman, VP & Chief Economist, Economic Consulting Our Company Structure at a Glance ARGUS
More informationGlobal economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919
More informationUDI Capital Region: Growth & Change
UDI Capital Region: Growth & REAL ESTATE thoughtful Andrew Ramlo, VP, Market Intelligence Rennie Group Today's Roadmap: - Current Market Stats - The Drivers To - To 2021 & Beyond Current Market stats ALL
More informationEconomic & Financial Market Outlook
Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets
More informationVancouver Real Estate Forum
Vancouver Real Estate Forum MODERATOR John O Bryan Chairman CBRE Limited PANELIST Chris Dobrzanski, CEO, Citizens Bank David Franklin, President, CMLS Financial Ltd. Morley Greene, President, Trez Capital
More informationFrom Recession to Recovery
From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
More informationCanada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers
Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging
More informationGlobal trade: how does it look?
Edmonton, December 2018 Global trade: how does it look? Marie-France Paquet The Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada Overview 1. Canadian economy at a glance 2. Provincial economy at a glance
More informationCanadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
More informationRBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism
More informationThe Canadian Real Estate Association News Release
The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release Canadian home sales at five-year low in May Ottawa, ON, June 15, 2018 Statistics 1 released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national
More informationThe TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence
The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence aramlo@rennie.com Ryan Berlin, Senior Economist rberlin@rennie.com Demographic 2016 The People Growth & Change 100
More informationMontreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future
Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future Outline The global economy and
More informationU.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
More informationThe Canadian Real Estate Association News Release
The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release Canadian home sales activity strengthens in July Ottawa, ON, August 15, 2018 Statistics 1 released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)
More information2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
More informationReading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs
More informationABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee
ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS
More informationFive Ways the 2016 Census Affects Marketers
Five Ways the 2016 Census Affects Marketers February 15, 2018 Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Practice Leader Today s presenters Dr. Doug
More informationOpportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?
Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation
More informationEconomic & Financial Outlook
Economic & Financial Outlook Conference call / Appel conférence Stéfane Marion / Paul-André Pinsonnault NBF Economics & Strategy Group January 15, 2018 World World: Economy continues to surprise on the
More informationOutline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
More informationU.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot Economic Press Briefing: May 19, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or
More informationThe ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources
The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com 1-800-BANKERS Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy
More informationSeven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and
More informationPhone: Fax: Commissioners Road, W. London, Ontario N6J 1Y3 STATISTICAL REPORT. (for month ending June 30, 2016)
Phone: 519-641-1400 Fax: 519-641-1419 342 Commissioners Road, W. London, Ontario N6J 1Y3 STATISTICAL REPORT (for month ending June 30, 2016) Table of Contents News Release for June 2016 3 Market Report
More informationHousing Market Update
Housing Market Update Keith Stewart, Senior Market Analyst September 2017 Agenda Economic Fundamentals The Rental Market The Ownership Market 2 New Households drive housing demand 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000
More informationHousing Market Update Greater Moncton. Housing market intelligence you can count on
Housing Market Update Greater Moncton Housing market intelligence you can count on Housing Market Drivers Multi-Residential/Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013/2014 Outlook
More informationBC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager
BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911
More informationCharting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds
Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington,
More informationOutlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by:
Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis May 8 th, 2008 Presented by: Patricia Croft, Vice President & Chief Economist Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Limited
More informationMore of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP
More informationTelling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards
More informationeconomic and financial outlook
Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in
More informationEconomic and Real Estate Outlook
Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS October 13, 2016 1990 1991 1992 1993
More informationFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)
The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas
More informationPhone: Fax: Commissioners Road, W. London, Ontario N6J 1Y3 STATISTICAL REPORT. (for month ending June 30, 2017)
Phone: 519-641-1400 Fax: 519-641-1419 342 Commissioners Road, W. London, Ontario N6J 1Y3 STATISTICAL REPORT (for month ending June 30, 2017) Table of Contents News Release for June 2017 3 Market Report
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE
More informationU.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
More informationU.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions
More informationU.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
More informationImpacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker
Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government
More informationVermont Economic Conference:
Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
More informationMuhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 30, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
More informationU.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015
U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)
More informationThe Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
More informationThe U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
More informationMarket Insights. March 29, 2019
March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%
More informationMarket Insights. June 30, 2018
June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%
More informationThe U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Michael Strauss Chief Economist and Chief Investment Strategist Commonfund October 16, 2012 The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the
More informationThe Great Economic Reset
The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationThe U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.
The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and
More informationComposition of Federal Spending
*For Institutional Use Only* Demographic and Economic Trends: Growth, Debt and Promises Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory services
More informationA Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values
A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant
More informationReal Estate and Economic Outlook
Real Estate and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation at Inforum Outlook Conference University of Maryland College Park, MD December 12, 2013
More informationThe Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff)
The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Montgomery, AL January 11, 2018 2 The new supply-side economics? In their discussion of monetary policy, participants saw
More information2016 Texas Prosperity Conference The Barnhill Center Brenham, Texas August 26, Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist. recenter.tamu.
2016 Texas Prosperity Conference The Barnhill Center Brenham, Texas August 26, 2016 Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist recenter.tamu.edu Housing and People 2 Texas Population 1910-2050 60,000,000 50,000,000
More informationPaul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009
Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies
More informationDeficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM
Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,
More informationPhone: Fax: Commissioners Road, W. London, Ontario N6J 1Y3 STATISTICAL REPORT. (for month ending April 30, 2017)
Phone: 519-641-1400 Fax: 519-641-1419 342 Commissioners Road, W. London, Ontario N6J 1Y3 STATISTICAL REPORT (for month ending April 30, 2017) Table of Contents News Release for April 2017 3 Market Report
More informationEconomic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
More informationThe US Economic Crisis: Impact on Northeast Asia, Lessons from Japan
The US Economic Crisis: Impact on Northeast Asia, Lessons from Japan Richard Katz The Oriental Economist Report rbkatz@ix.netcom.com www.orientaleconomist.com 2008 Japan Watchers LLC. All rights reserved.
More informationPresident and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics
The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.
More informationTHE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?
THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered
More informationPost-Bubble Global Trends. AAPA Webinar. February 18, Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group
Post-Bubble Global Trends AAPA Webinar February 18, 2009 Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol Commercial Analysis Group Takeaways The world economy is circling the drain World is wealthier
More informationThe U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
More informationShifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook. February 1, 2011
Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook February 1, 2011 Today s Objectives Endeavor to provide a broad context for today s program by briefly touching on: Some good news Some not
More informationAlternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group
Alternative Measures of Economic Activity Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group High School Fed Challenge Student Orientation: February 1 and 2, 217 Outline Alternative indicators: data
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?
More informationThe World Did Not End in Q1
The World Did Not End in Q1 Sam Wilkin Senior Advisor, Business Research Blog: www.samwilkin.com 06.2015 1 2 3 4 5 Exports to Russia: 10% of Finnish exports; 4% of Finnish GDP 1. Global Economic Weather
More informationThe Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/
More information2016 Census: Release 2 Age, Sex, Dwelling types
2016 Census: Release 2 Age, Sex, Dwelling types Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer May 11, 2017 Agenda A look at major age sex trends National Provincial/territorial Urban and
More informationWhy Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish?
Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish? Robert E. Hall Hoover Institution and Department of Economics Stanford University Keynote Address Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
More informationGlobal growth forecasts Key countries/regions,
Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area
More informationAn Agricultural Update
An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980
More informationU.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. July 15, 2014
2014 U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook July 15, 2014 U.S. Economic Overview U.S. GDP Growth Persistent Despite 1Q Polar Vortex Annualized Quarterly Percent Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
More informationA Giant Producer, & An Emerging Giant Consumer/Investor. Hong Liang
A Giant Producer, & An Emerging Giant Consumer/Investor China s Role in Global Trade and Investment Hong Liang Chief Economist, Head of Research October, 2016 I China: A global manufacturing power house,
More informationUnderstanding the. Dr. Christopher Waller. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Understanding the Unemployment Picture Dr. Christopher Waller Senior Vice President and Director of fresearch Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis By David Andolfatto and Marcela Williams A Look at Unemployment
More informationThe Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya
The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationGreat Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project
Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott www.greatdepressionsbook.com Cole and Ohanian, The Great Depression in the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective,
More informationReal gross domestic growth
Real gross domestic growth United States, 2000 prices Compound annual growth rate 10 5 0-5 -10 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Sources: BEA, Global Insight. Consumer sentiment University of Michigan,
More informationDr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder
Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard
More informationThe United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight
The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors
More informationCurrent Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian
Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the
More informationDr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest:
More informationNational and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference
National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully
More informationColorado Economic Update
Colorado Economic Update Steamboat Economic Summit Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division October 21, 2016 Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Real GDP
More informationThe U.S. & Global Economic Outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Remarks to The American Sportfishing Association
The U.S. & Global Economic Outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Remarks to The American Sportfishing Association Hilton Head, S.C. Oct. 9, 2012 How We Got Here Great Moderation = More
More informationAs Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International
As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect
More informationU.S. REITs have rebounded strongly Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index
U.S. REITs have rebounded strongly Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index Index, 2005 = 100 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones. Affordability
More informationIssues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada
Policy and Economic Analysis Program Rotman School of Management University of Toronto Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Office of the Chief Actuary Canada Pension Plan Seminar September
More information10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business
10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent
More informationCarol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services
Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Financial Overview December 6, 2017 1 Discussion Overview Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing
More information