Ragnar Tveteras University of Stavanger Norway Professor Ragnar Tveteras is a business economist at the University of Stavanger s Department for Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning. His research focuses primarily on aquaculture and seafood markets. As a writer and lecturer, he maintains relationships with authorities and private decision makers at the regional, national and international levels. 1
Fish Production Estimates & Trends, 213-214 Ragnar Nystoyl Ragnar Tveteras
Acknowledgements Organizations: GAA, Urner Barry, Norwegian Seafood Council, Eurostat, FAO, Apromar, IMF. Darryl Jory, Paul S. Valle, Apostolos Tzoumas, Brian O Hanlon, Chris Calogeras, Dr. P.E.Vijay Anand, Jack Zhang Chunbin, Kevin Fitzsimmons, Liu Liping, M Siva Prasad, Mauricio Castro, Philip Shin, Ronald Cheong, Sergio Zimmermann, Tzyh-Chung Miaw, Sigbjorn Tveteras, and many anonymous sources. 3
Scope of Analysis Most focus on internationally traded species: Typically imported to USA, Europe & Japan. Production forecasts for 213 for all chosen species: But for some species only major producer countries/regions. Global production forecast for 214 almost all species. 4
Finfish Species Included in Freshwater Tilapia Analysis Barramundi Milkfish Catfish Pangasius Channel catfish, etc. Carp Diadromous Salmon & Trout Atlantic salmon Coho salmon Trout Marine Seabass & Bream Flatfishes Olive Flounder Atlantic Halibut Turbot Cobia Atlantic cod Bluefin tuna Grouper 5
FRESHWATER 6
TILAPIA
Tilapia Global Aquaculture Production 1 METRIC TONNES 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 379 199 398 1991 485 1992 548 1993 593 1994 74 1995 811 1996 898 1997 897 1998 137 1999 119 2 132 21 1417 22 1587 23 1795 24 1992 25 2234 26 2554 27 2827 28 319 29 3497 21 3958 211 428 212 REAL PRICE (USD/KG) 8 44 213 45 214 4565 215 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Sources: 199-211: FAO; 212-215: Kevin Fitzsimmons ; Prices US import frozen fillet: NMFS. Note: Prices are January- December averages, except for 212 (January- August average) 8
Tilapia Countries production sorted by 212 figures China Indonesia Egypt Philippines Brasil Thailand Brazil Others Bangladesh Vietnam Taiwan Colombia Ecuador Mexico Malaysia 5, 1,, 1,5, 282,275 34, 237,55 254, 265, 123,333 16, 71, 57, 41,667 55,75 47, 587,324 625, 1,312,5 215 214 213 212 Average of es\mates from several sources. 9
PANGASIUS
Pangasius Production in selected countries 3,, 2,5, Metric Tonnes 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 1,415,75 971, 92, 1,1, 423,15 486,622 56, 644, 313,333 35, 3, 34,667 Vietnam Thailand Indonesia India Bangladesh 212 213 214 215 Sources: Kontali, Dr. P.E.Vijay Anand, M Siva Prasad and several anonymous. 11
1 Metric tonnes 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Pangasius Produc/on in Vietnam and EU import real import price (EUR kg) 4 6 87 1 114 135 163 255 376 52 85 125 15 114 1151 1415.75 971 92 11 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Real export price (EUR/kg) Sources: FAO (1997-211), miscellaneous sources (212-215). Prices: Norwegian Seafood Council/Eurostat. 12
Produc/on in metric tonnes Total production of Catfish species 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Excl. pangasius 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Brazil Egypt Myanmar Others Cambodia Uganda Malaysia Thailand Nigeria USA Bangladesh Indonesia China Vietnam Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous anonymous. 13
Produc/on in metric tonnes Total production of Catfish species 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, US unit import price catfish products 886,9 1,59,92 1,32,521 1,578,1 2,77,969 2,676,22 2,72,89 3,199,68 3,365,587 3,635, 3,685, 3,69, 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 US D per kg Produc\on US Unit import price ca]ish Sources: FAO, Kontali. Prices: Urner Barry. 14
DIADROMOUS 15
SALMONIDS
Atlantic Salmon Production and EU15 real import price fresh gutted from Norway Production in metric tonnes 25 EU real import price (EUR/kg) 12 2 1 15 1 5 646,516 688,176 83,837 893,74 1,32,712 1,8,897 1,132,994 1,244,637 1,252, 1,272,1 1,399,7 1,497,5 1,468,9 1,446,2 1,622,9 1,98,4 2,13,3 2,74, 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 8 6 4 2 Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSEC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices 1991-212 are annual averages. Price in 213 is January- July average. 17
Produc/on in Metric Tonnes 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Atlantic Salmon Production by country 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Norway Chile UK Canada Faroe Islands Australia Ireland USA Others Source: Kontali 18
Coho Salmon Total Production and Real Export Price on Chilean Coho Frozen Round Production in Metric Tonnes 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Production Real price 39,164 44,385 48,513 49,154 58,7 58,36 76,197 84,867 88,32 89,475 18,626 15,986 112,745 15,869 1,967 121,2 119,5 138,6 138, 18,4 125,2 147,7 167,9 179,8 141, 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Price in Real USD per Kilo 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Sources: FAO, Kontali,NSC 19
Produc/on in Metric Tonnes 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Coho Salmon Production by country Chile Japan Others Source: Kontali 2
4, Rainbow Trout Total Marine Production and Chilean frozen USD/kg (blue) and Norwegian fresh EUR/kg (red) real export prices 7 Metric tonnes 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 33,567 34,321 47,512 57,175 69,748 8,593 13,9 125,73 145,128 121,862 153,33 26,58 222,433 25,55 214,869 236,3 253,6 34,9 328,3 297,5 37,1 316,5 362,4 298,1 288,8 6 5 4 3 2 1 Real export price Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSC. Note: Prices are annual averages except 213 (January-July average). 21
Produc/on in Metric Tonnes 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Trout production in Latin America, excl. Chile 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Venezuela Peru Panama Mexico Costa Rica Colombia Sources: FAO (1999-211); Anonymous (212_215). 22
Barramundi / Asian Seabass
Barramundi Total production by major producing Countries Metric Tonnes 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Others Australia Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Taiwan 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: FAO 24
3 25 Barramundi Production forecasts for selected countries Taiwan Australia Indonesia Vietnam 2 15 1 5 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Metrc Tonnes Sources: FAO (22-21) and anonymous sources (211-213) 25
MARINE 26
SEA BREAM AND BASS
Production in metric tonnes Seabass & Sea Bream Meditteranean Production 4 35 Sea Breams Sea Basses 3 25 2 15 1 5 45957 58831 57811 73232 56162 773 79767 6193 8834 626 88922 68679 99265 8276 141,5 113,2 16,7 123,5 169,2 12,7 17,3 124,7 166,2 127,7 161,1 129,7 177,4 142,8 195,2 147,5 18,5 154,2 Source: FEAP, Kontali (26-213) 28
Seabass & Sea Bream Mediterranean Production & Real Italian Production Sea Basses and Breams Real price fresh Gilthead seabream Production (metric tonnes) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 14,788 1999 131,43 2 133,165 21 14,86 22 15,4 23 Import Price 157,61 24 181,971 25 254,7 26 284,2 27 Real price fresh whole seabass 289,9 28 295, 29 293,9 21 29,8 211 32,2 212 Real Price (Euro per kilo) 342,7 213 334,7 214 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: FEAP, Kontali, Eurostat 29
FLATFISHES
Olive Flounder Production and real farmgate price Production in metric tonnes Japan Rep. of Korea Real price Rep. of Korea (USD/kg) 6 5 4 3 2 1 429 527 6733 8861 26274 22277 21368 14127 16426 23348 34533 32141 475 43852 41171 46432 54674 4925 485 39553 395 45 Real price (USD/kg) 41 3 25 2 15 1 5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Sources: FAO (1993-211), Philip Shin and anonymous (212-215) 31
Turbot Production in selected countries excl. China 14 12 Others Denmark France Real Farmgate Price Spain Norway Portugal Spain 14 12 Metric Tonnes 1 8 6 4 1 8 6 4 Real Price (EUR/Kg) 2 2 Sources: FAO, Kontali. 32
Atlantic Halibut Production Iceland UK Norway Real Export Price Norway Produc/on in metric tonnes 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Real Price (USD/kg) Source: FAO (21-24), Kontali (25-214), NSC (prices). Note: Prices 21-212are annual averages, price in 213is January- July average. 33
COBIA
Cobia Major Producing Countries until 211 45 14 Metric Tonnes 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 12 1 8 6 4 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Real price Taiwan (USD/kg) Other Colombia Taiwan China Real price Taiwan Source: FAO 35
Farmed Cobia Estimates for Vietnam, Taiwan and Panama Metric Tonnes 4 Vietnam 35 3 25 Taiwan 2 15 1 Panama 5 211 212 213 214 215 Source: FAO (211), Various sources (212-215) 36
ATLANTIC COD
Atlantic Cod Total Farmed Production and Norwegian Produc/on in metric tonnes 25 2 15 1 5 21 22 23 24 25 Export price 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Real price in Euro per kg 213 214 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Faroe Islands Canada UK Iceland Norway Export price fresh guted Cod Sources: Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries (1989-24), Kontali (25-213), Norwegian Seafood Council (Prices). Note: Prices 21-12 are annual averages, price in 213 is Jan-July average. 38
TUNAS
Bluefin Tuna Total Produc/on and US real import price fresh Metric tonnes 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 238 Production US import price fresh 438 343 345 335 37 297 291 29 265 33 31 3 25 2 15 1 5 Real price (USD/kg) Sources: Produc\on - Apostolos Tzoumas; import price- NMFS. Note: Prices 22-211 are annual averages, price in 212 is January- August average. 4
MUSSELS
Total Mussel Produc/on 1,82, 1,8, Metric Tonnes 1,78, 1,76, 1,74, 1,72, 1,7, 1,68, 1,727,638 1,81,541 1,797,9 1,79,986 1,83,65 1,811,2 29 21 211 212 213 214 Sources: Kontali and misc. sources 42
Summary Finfish 43
Aquaculture Production of Fish Species and 1-year growth rate 199-211 Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. Produc\on Double in a decade % growth 8.7 9. 9.9 11.2 13.1 15. 16.9 17.9 18.5 19.9 2.8 22.2 23.5 24.2 26.3 28. 29.9 31.6 34.3 36.1 38.3 41.6 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 25 2 15 1 5 % ten year growth rate Source: FAO 44
Aquaculture Production of Fish Species Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 and Seafood Price Indices 199-211 Produc\on Total price index Aquaculture price index 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 Seafood price index (22-24=1) Source: FAO 45
Diadromous Species Annual Percent Growth Rates 21-213 Milkfish, Philippines 1.5 3.8 6.6 Barramundi (AU, IN, TW).8 4.4 5.2 Trout, La\n America - 2.2 5.7 49.4-17.7 Rainbow trout 3.1 14.5 Coho salmon 7.1 13.7 18. Atlan\c salmon 1.7 12.2 22. 213 212 211-3. - 2. - 1.. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 46
Freshwater Species Annual Percent Growth Rates 21-213 1.4 Channel Ca]ish 8. 5.2-31.4 Pangasius, Vietnam 1. 23. 213-4.2 Carp, China 7. 5.2 212 211 Tilapia 4.6 6.3 13.2-4. - 3. - 2. - 1.. 1. 2. 3. 47
Marine Species Annual Percent Growth Rates 21-213 - 3.7 Grouper 1.2 1.5 2.3 Bluefin - 8.6 tuna 14.3-42.3-39.2-25.3 Atlan\c cod. Atlan\c halibut 23. 6.5-28.8 Turbot, excl. China 18.1 12. -.1 Olive flounder; Korea Rep. - 3.1 -.3 7. Sea bass & bream, Medit. 1.1-1.1 213 212 211-6. - 4. - 2.. 2. 4. 6. 8. 48
Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp in China, 22-214 Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 9.5 9.6 1.5 11.4 12.7 12.5 12.5 8.1 4. 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.7 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 49
Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp in China, 22-214 Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Produc\on % growth 21.2 17.4 15.6 13.5 12.9 13.7 1.2 11. 8.3.4.5-1.6 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 25. 2. 15. 1. 5. % growth. - 5. 5
Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp in China 22-214 Mill. Metric Tonnes 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Marine.4.5.4 Diadromous.4.4 3. 3. 3. Freshwater.4.4 2.5.4 2.3 2.4 2.3.4.3 2.2.2.2 2..2 1.9 7.8 8.5 9.3 9.1 9.1 1.9 1.7 6.8 6.9 1.7 5.5 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.3 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 51
Growth Rates by Species Groups (23-213 average growth rate in parenthesis) 35. % growth 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. - 5. - 1. Freshwater (7.2%) Diadromous (5.8% Marine (6.9%) 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 52
Growth Rates by Species Groups 35. excl. Carp in China (23-213 average growth rate in parenthesis) % growth 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. - 5. - 1. Freshwater (13.5%) Diadromous (5.8% Marine (6.9%) 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 53
Production of Surveyed Whitefish Species Excluding Carp in China, 22-214 Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 9.7 8.2 8.9 9.5 9.5 7.1 7.3 5.9 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.7 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 54
Production of Surveyed Whitefish Species Excluding Carp in China, 22-214 Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Produc\on % growth 25. 25.5 22. 16.8 18. 18.8 13.2 9.2 7.7 1.8.5-2. 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. - 5. % growth 55
Production of Surveyed Whitefish Species and Average Import Prices Frozen whole Excluding Carp in China, 22-214 Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes 12 1 8 6 4 2 Produc\on USA aquaculture USA capture EU15 capture 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Average Import Price Source prices: Norwegian Seafood Council 56
Did they double in a decade? Percentage growth 23-213 Pangasius, Vietnam Atlantic halibut Channel Catfish Trout, Latin America Barramundi (AU, IN, TW) Tilapia Atlantic cod Sea bass & bream, Medit. Turbot, excl. China Atlantic salmon Coho salmon Milkfish, Philippines Carp, China Rainbow trout Grouper Olive flounder; Korea Rep. Bluefin tuna 214.4 194. 177.3 133.9 127.9 83.9 77.7 69.8 59.2 52.1 45. 26.2 14.4 1. 315.5 392.3 495.7 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percent 57
Did they double in a decade? Percentage growth 23-213 Marine Diadromous 72.4 87.4 Freshwater ex. Carp China 243.4 Freshwater 98.8 TOTAL EX. CARP CHINA 171.3 TOTAL 95. 1 2 3 Percent 58
Thank You! 59