Can cycling (to work) benefit health? Bruce Whyte, Glasgow Centre for Population Health, Scottish Parliament Cross Party Cycling Group, 3 December 2013
Summary Is cycling normal? What are the benefits? What s the situation like in Glasgow? Findings of health economic analysis of benefits of cycling (WHO HEAT tool) Opportunities?
Is this behaviour normal?
Some of the health benefits Walking and cycling to school may help prevent excessive weight gain (Rosenberg et al, Obesity, 2006) Cycling to school is associated with higher cardiovascular fitness and muscular endurance in young people (Cooper et al, Med. Sci. Sports Exerc. 2006 & Anderson et al, Scan Jnl Med Sci Sports, 2009) Children who use active modes of travel to school are more physically active (van Sluijs et al, EM, Prev Med. 2009) Changing from a passive (motorised) mode of travel to active travel to school has been shown to increase physical activity in primary school children (Smith L, JECHealth, 2011) Because walkers and cyclists are likely to be more physically active (Sahlqvist, S, Preventive Medicine, 2012), they may be at reduced risk for developing chronic diseases in adulthood (Voss, Med Sci Sports Exerc 2010)
. The solid facts are that walking and cycling benefit health while motor vehicles damage health. Walking and cycling need to be prioritised in transport planning; compact cities that minimise vehicle journeys need to be prioritised in economic and landuse planning; public transport must be significantly improved, while car travel is reduced; and leadership is needed from politicians, industry and civil society. Social Determinants of Health, 1999
So how does Glasgow compare?
Adults in Scotland
Comparing European Cities
Glasgow City Council, City Centre Cycle Counts, 2009-2013
Glasgow City Centre, Cycle Counts, 2009-13
Comparing how children get to school Cycling to school, 4 largest Scottish cities, 2008-2012 Source : Sustrans, Hands Up Survey 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.6% Glasgow 2012 Aberdeen 2008 Aberdeen 2009 Aberdeen 2010 Aberdeen 2011 Aberdeen 2012 Dundee 2008 Dundee 2009 Dundee 2010 Dundee 2011 Dundee 2012 Edinburgh 2008 Edinburgh 2009 Edinburgh 2010 Edinburgh 2011 Edinburgh 2012 Glasgow 2008 Glasgow 2009 Glasgow 2010 Glasgow 2011 % share by travel mode
Current and preferred methods of travel to school in Glasgow Current and preferred methods of travel to school, S1-S4 Pupils in Glasgow Source: Schools Survey - Health and Well-being of S1-S4 Pupils in New Learning Community Schools in Glasgow City, 2008 50 45 40 41 Current (%) Preferred (%) 35 32 30 25 20 15 10 5 9 3 10 5 0 Walking Bus Car Train Cycle Other
Cycling Perceived as healthy activity but only 2-3% of journeys are by bike Barriers Perceived safety on road (biggest barrier) They re telling everyone to get fit, but it s not safe to take a bike out. If they had more cycle paths it would be a lot better. Safe cycle facilities/showers and routes Fear of theft There s nowhere safe in the town that you could leave a bike. Do you not come back with your tyres missing? You take off your front wheel and lock it to the back. Weather Lack of storage space at home
Cycling to work in Glasgow by neighbourhood, 2001 Source: Scottish Household Survey % Cycling Glasgow city neighbourhoods 2001 census 2.5 2.0 % Cycling Scotland 1.5 1.0 0.5 Carmunnock Robroyston & Millerston Baillieston & Garrowhill Easterhouse Ruchazie & Garthamlock Blackhill & Hogganfield Springboig & Barlanark Castlemilk Balornock & Barmulloch South Nitshill & Darnley Toryglen Mount Vernon & East Shettleston Drumchapel Tollcross & West Shettleston Croftfoot Newlands & Cathcart Priesthill & Househillwood Haghill & Carntyne Parkhead & Dalmarnock Riddrie & Cranhill Kingspark & Mount Florida Corkerhill & North Pollok Springburn Arden & Carnwadric City Centre & Merchant City Pollokshaws & Mansewood Pollokshields West Cathcart & Simshill Pollok Calton & Bridgeton Lambhill & Milton Ruchill & Possilpark 0.0 North Maryhill & Summerston Blairdardie North Cardonald & Penilee Greater Gorbals Greater Govan Temple & Anniesland Crookston & South Cardonald Sighthill, Roystonhill & Germiston Bellahouston, Craigton & Mosspark Knightswood Govanhill Ibrox & Kingston Shawlands & Strathbungo Yoker & Scotstoun Langside & Battlefield Dennistoun Pollokshields East Anniesland, Jordanhill & Whiteinch Hillhead & Woodlands Hyndland, Dowanhill & Partick East Yorkhill & Anderston Broomhill & Partick West Maryhill Road Corridor Kelvindale & Kelvinside Neighbouhood zones %
Active Commuting into Glasgow by sector, 2001 Active Commuting into Glasgow from different geographical sectors of the city Source: Census 2001 20.0% 18.0% 18.3% 16.0% 14.0% 12.6% 15.4% 14.3% % cycling % walking 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.4% 4.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% Glasgow East North South West Glasgow and geographical secotrs of city
Infrastructure Kilometres of cycling infrastructure 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total length of all cycling and shared routes Shared cycling and pedestrian routes Cycling-specific routes Total length of all on-road routes Total length of all off-road routes West East North South Source: Glasgow City Council GIS database
Main points Despite an apparent rise in recent years there is still a low level of cycling in Glasgow compared to many other comparable cities Potentially positive trends in children cycling to school and more would like to cycle to school than currently do Active travel among adults most often seen as a necessity (i.e. no car) rather than a positive choice Infrastructure, facilities and safety need to be improved to encourage a shift
HEAT health economic analysis of benefits of cycling
Research aim: to explore the potential health economic benefits of cycling in an urban Scottish setting
HEAT analysis Methods and data Methods The HEAT tool was applied to local cycling data for Glasgow using the following basic formula: If x people cycle y distance on z days in a year, what is the value of the health benefits that occur as a result of the reduction in mortality due to their increased activity? Dataset: Cordon counts from surveys undertaken in Glasgow from 2009-2012, providing a count of cyclists entering the city at specific entry points over a two day census period.
HEAT analysis Caveats and assumptions The main output of the calculation is the mean annual benefit in Euros due to reduced mortality as a result of cycling. The calculation assumes a time period for the build-up of benefit (normally set at five years) and averages the benefit over a timeframe (normally set at ten years). The tool requires a number of other parameters to be set as part of the calculation e.g average number of days cycled annually 203 days Our analysis of health economic gain is based on a comparison of health gains due to cycle commuting into the centre compared to a notional situation where no one commuted by bicycle into the city centre. An average distance for this commute has been derived from 2001 Census data for Glasgow residents who commuted into the centre of the city by bicycle - 4km
HEAT analysis Results Glasgow cycle cordon count (2009-12) data used to estimate total numbers of commuting trips per day, in and out of the city centre by Glasgow residents Table 1. Estimated annual benefits based on Glasgow cordon count data 2009-2012 Year Number of trips per day Estimated mean annual benefit 2009 4,171 3,133,530 ( 3,769,000) 2010 4,497 3,133,195 ( 3,769,000) 2011 4,468 3,355,697 ( 4,037,000) 2012 5,638 4,235,393 ( 5,095,000)
HEAT analysis Projections? Currently 1% of all journeys by Scottish residents are made by bicycle (Scottish Household Survey Travel Diary, 2008),and we would like to see this increased tenfold to 10% by 2020. Cycling Action Plan for Scotland (2010) Estimated Mean Trips per day Annual Benefit (EUR) Cyclists 2012 (Cordon Count) 5,638 EUR 5,095,000 4,348,538 2,819 Projections Two fold increase on 2012 11,276 EUR 10,189,000 8,696,223 5,638 Five fold increase on 2012 28,190 EUR 25,474,000 21,741,837 14,095 Ten fold increase on 2012 56,380 EUR 50,947,000 43,482,820 28,190
Opportunities An active travel Commonwealth Games Tourism potential Economic benefits
Transport and the Economy Submission of evidence to the House of Commons Transport Select Committee (2010) by Professor Phil Goodwin By far the best value for money is currently coming from spending on smarter choices (travel planning, carreduction policies, telecommunications as alternatives to some travel, etc), local safety schemes, cycling schemes, and the best of local bus and some rail quality and reliability schemes.
Opportunities An active travel Commonwealth Games Tourism potential Economic benefits Health Benefits Momentum - Cycling is a mode of transport on the cusp of greatness - Get Britain Cycling, All Party Report, April 2013
Get Britain Cycling Key recommendations include: More of the transport budget should be spent on supporting cycling, at a rate initially set to at least 10 per person per year, and increasing as cycling levels increase Cycling should be considered at an earlier stage in all planning decisions, whether transport schemes or new houses or businesses More use should be made of segregated cycle lanes, learning from the Dutch experience Urban speed limits should generally be reduced to 20 mph Just as children learn to swim at school they should learn to ride a bike The Government should produce a detailed crossdepartmental Cycling Action Plan, with annual progress reports
Investment works Percentage change in traffic (vehicle kilometres) on all roads versus 1999, in eight local authorities within Glasgow and Clyde Valley, 1999-2011 Source: Scottish Transport Statistics 40% East Dunbartonshire Percentage change in traffic on all roads versus 1999 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 East Renfrewshire Glasgow, City of Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire -5% -10%
Impact of the Tradeston (or Squiggly) Bridge WEST CITY CENTRE EAST SOUTH
Position of bridges over Clyde WEST CITY CENTRE 1 2 3 4 5 EAST SOUTH
Results Pedestrian cordon counts over Clyde Southern crossing points All crossing points into city centre Two-day mean pedestrian count 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 2 3 4 25% increase 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 9% increase 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Two-day mean pedestrian count 5 5 5 10,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 0 Year Year
Results Cyclists cordon counts over Clyde Southern crossing points All crossing points into city centre 1,500 6,000 Two-day mean cyclist count 1,200 900 600 300 47% increase 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 43% increase 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Two-day mean cyclist count 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 Year Year
Good infrastructure 301.2 km of potential cycle routes across Glasgow Bus Corridor On road/low Traffic On road Demarcation/Signed Shared Surface Off Road Park Route/Leisure Segregated 83.4 km 40.4 km 20.6 km 83.0 km 70.5 km 3.3 km Gothenburg, a similarly sized Swedish city, has 770km of cycle paths (470km of which are Segregated) and 7,400 spaces for cycle parking in the city centre
Conclusions Currently Glasgow has experienced an apparent rise in cycling in recent years but still has low levels of cycling compared to many other comparable cities Our study illustrates there are significant health economic benefits from current levels of cycling into the city and these could be much greater if levels of cycling rise e.g. from 1% 10% of commuting journeys But active travel among adults most often seen as a necessity (i.e. no car) rather than a positive choice and safety is an issue What needs to happen Infrastructure, facilities and safety need to be improved to encourage a shift There is much to be learnt from the commitment and actions taken in other UK and European cities This is a win win, win win increasing cycling will have environmental, health, economic and community co benefits Clearer and stronger political leadership and commitment is needed in terms of strategic resource allocation and fiscal measures that positively discriminate in favour of walking, cycling and use of public transport over that of the car
Further research Using HEAT analysis tools to: compare health economic impact of all cycling commuting in Glasgow 2001 vs. 2011 extend comparison to a range of Scottish cities and potentially UK cities. health economic benefits of walking, using the WHO HEAT tool for walking
Thank you For more information: bruce.whyte@drs.glasgow.gov.uk 0141 287 6875