Demography Series: China April 9, 212 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Sailesh S Radha 83-786-1368 sradha@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Population Profile, Fertility Rate 1 Age Group 1-24: Population, Population Growth 2 Population Projections: Age Group 1-24, 1-64 3 Median Age Across: Time, Countries 4 Dependency Ratio, Employment to Population Ratio(Age 1-24) April 9, 212 / Demography Series: China www.
Figure 1. - Population Profile, Fertility Rate - POPULATION PROFILE: CHINA (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 1-64 < Age 1 1 9 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 7 6 4 3 2 1 196 1962 Source: World Bank. Figure 2. FERTILITY RATE: CHINA (births per woman) 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 China Fertility Rate 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Replacement Rate* for Industrialized Countries 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the offspring reach 1 yrs. In The United States and other industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement level (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality). Source: World Bank. Page 1 / April 9, 212 / Demography Series: China 29 29 212 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 www. 7 6 4 3 2 1
3 - Age Group 1-24: Population, Population Growth - Figure 3. POPULATION OF AGE GROUP 1-24: CHINA (millions) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 19 19 196 196 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 7 Figure 4. POPULATION GROWTH OF AGE GROUP 1-24: CHINA (percentage annual) 7 3 3 1 1-1 -1-3 -3-191- 196-6 1961-6 1966-7 1971-7 1976-8 1981-8 1986-9 1991-9 1996-21- 26-1 211-1 - Page 2 / April 9, 212 / Demography Series: China www.
3 2 - Population Projections: Age Group 1-24, 1-64 - Figure. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 1-24 AGE GROUP: CHINA (millions) Estimates Projections 3 2 2 2 1 1 12 1 19 Figure 6. 19 196 196 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 PROJECTIONS OF WORKING AGE POPULATION 1-64: CHINA (millions) Estimates Projections 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 2 2 26 1 1 12 1 8 6 4 2 19 Page 3 / April 9, 212 / Demography Series: China 19 196 196 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 2 2 26 8 6 4 2 www.
4 3 Figure 7. - Median Age Across: Time, Countries - MEDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION OF: CHINA (years) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 19 19 196 196 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 Figure 8. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AGE OF: CHINA (years) Lastest data as of 21 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 Japan Germany Italy Finland Austria Switzerland Greece Belgium Portugal Netherlands Sweden Denmark Spain France Canada Hungary United Kingdom Czech Republlic Norway Poland Russia Korea Singapore Australia USA New Zealand Page 4 / April 9, 212 / Demography Series: China Ireland China Thailand Chile Argentina Israel Brazil Turkey Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Mexico Morocco Malaysia Peru India South Africa Egypt Philippines 3 2 2 1 1 www.
Dependency Ratio, Employment to Population Ratio(Age 1-24) - 9 8 7 Figure 9. Overall Dependency Ratio*: CHINA (percentage of working population) < Age 1 > Age 64 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 8 7 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 * A measure of the portion of a population which is composed of dependents (people who are too young or too old to work), expressed as a percentage of the working age population (age group 1-64). Overall Dependency Ratio = Dependency Ratio of Age Group < 1 + Dependency Ratio of Age Group > 64. Source: World Bank. Figure 1. EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO, AGE GROUP 1-24: CHINA (percentage of age group population) Female Male Total 6 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 6 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: World Bank. Page / April 9, 212 / Demography Series: China www.
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