The Virginia Economy: Labor Markets and Workforce April 4, 2017 Sonya Ravindranath Waddell Regional Economist Research Department The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
Overview The Virginia Population Population Growth Population Distribution by Age/Region Employment in Virginia Employment Growth by Industry/Region Industry Structure Wages and Salaries Educational Attainment Additional Slides on Unemployment and Labor Force 2
Total Population Growth Annualized % change, 5-year 2.5 United States Virginia 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 3
Virginia Population Growth by Age Annualized % change, 5-years 5 4 Under 15 16-24 25-44 45-64 65+ 3 2 1 0-1 -2 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 4
Virginia Population by Age Population (Thousands) 2500 Under 15 16-24 25-44 45-64 65+ 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 5
Total Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
Average Annual Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
Payroll Employment YoY % Chg (SA) 4 U.S. Virginia 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 February 2017 US: 1.6% VA: 1.4% -5-6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8
Virginia Industry Structure Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 2016 U.S. Virginia 0.5 0.2 4.7 4.8 8.6 5.9 18.9 16.9 1.9 1.7 5.7 5.1 14.0 18.3 15.7 13.6 10.8 10.2 3.9 5.1 15.4 18.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Employment Share (Percent) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 9
Virginia Industry Growth February 2017 Total Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -4.2-2.5-0.7-4.0 U.S. Virginia -0.4-0.5 1.6 1.4 3.3 0.1 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 YoY % Chg (SA) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 10
Indexed Employment Index December2007 = 100 130 Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 120 110 100 90 Professional & Business Services Government Financial Activities Total Trade, Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Information 80 70 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Construction Mining & Logging Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 11
VA Job Change in Recession by Industry Total Natural Resources & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Total Government -16.8-18.4-0.2-9.0 5.2 53.9 39.3 52.1 46.9 11.9 12.8 23.4 13.3 10.2 3.2 15.3 9.7 80.1 79.5 62.3 161.5 313.2 Job Loss in Recession (December 2007 to January 2010) Job Gain in Recovery (January 2010 to September 2016) -100 0 100 200 300 400 Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 12
VA Average Weekly Wage by Industry 2016 Q3 Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional, and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Unclassified Government $380 $822 $1,046 $1,111 $811 $1,787 $1,414 $1,551 $944 $824 $878 $1,167 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Average Weekly Wage ($) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 13
MSA Employment Growth February 2017 Charlottesville 2.9 Harrisonburg 2.7 Northern Virginia 2.2 Winchester 1.9 US 1.6 Virginia Blacksburg Roanoke 1.4 1.3 1.2 Lynchburg Richmond 0.9 0.9 Virginia Beach 0.6 0 1 2 3 4 YoY% Change (SA) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 14
Educational Attainment - 2014 Bachelor's Degree or Higher Percent of Population 25+ 8.5-17.2 17.3-26.3 26.4-44.8 44.9-75.1 Source: Census Bureau, USDA Economic Research Service 15
Educational Attainment in Virginia Virginia Percent of Population 25+ 12.3 10.3 19.1 24.5 29.5 33.8 37.0 14.9 25.2 28.4 24.0 26.0 26.3 27.3 52.2 37.6 26.7 24.8 26.0 18.5 26.0 24.6 13.9 11.1 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Less Than High School High School Some College College Source: Census Bureau and USDA Economic Research Service 16
Median Earnings 2015 Population 25+ Median Earnings Graduate or Professional Degree $67,286 $78,049 Bachelor's Degree $55,799 $50,930 Some College or Associate's Degree $35,656 $34,377 High School or Equivalent $29,674 $29,004 Virginia Less than High School $22,657 $21,320 United States Source: Census Bureau 17
Labor Data by Education 2015 Population 25+ Unemployment Rate (%) Labor force Participation Rate (%) 2.6 2.9 Bachelor's Degree or Higher 87.5 86.1 5.2 4.3 Some College or Associate's Degree 79.9 78.9 6.8 6.2 High School Graduate or Equivalent 73.5 71.9 9.8 9.6 Less than High School Graduate 62.0 60.1 Source: Census Bureau (author s calculation for unemployment and labor force participation) 18
Summary Population growth has been falling in VA and the U.S. and both populations have been aging. The Virginia population is increasingly concentrated in Northern VA, Richmond, and Hampton Roads (the crescent ), which also serves as the employment base of the state. Most of the job gains have been in (higher average wage-earning) professional and business services and (lower wage-earning) leisure/hospitality and education/health services. Virginia is relatively educated, which contributes to stronger labor market outcomes in the state. 19
Questions? The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System. 20
Unemployment Rate Percent 11 U.S. Virginia 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 February 2017 US: 4.7% VA: 3.9% 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 21
MSA Unemployment Percent 12 10 Unemployment Trends January 2016 January 2017 8 6 4 4.2 5.0 3.7 3.4 5.9 5.6 4.3 3.9 4.5 4.4 3.5 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.5 2 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 22
County Unemployment 23
Labor Force Participation Rate Percent 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 February 2017 US: 63.0% VA: 65.2% 58 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 U.S. Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 24
Labor Force Participation Rate in the United States Change (+/-) in Participation Rate: January 2000 to February 2017 7.6 8.7 Total 16 + Total 16-24 Men 16-24 Women 16-24 Total 55 and older Women 55 and older -4.3-8.8-10.3-11.8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 25
Virginia Labor Force and Working Age Population Annual % Change, 4 year moving avg. 3.0 2.5 Labor Force Population 16-64 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau /Haver Analytics 26
Employment/Population Ratio Percent of Population (16+) 68 United States Virginia 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 27
Total Wage and Salary Growth YoY % Chg 10 U.S. Virginia 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 3Q: 2016 US: 4.6% VA: 3.6% -6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics 28