Peer reviewed pøper Develpment f mdel fr imprving sfety in schl znes Pyt, V. & McTiernn, D. ARRB Grup Emil: victri.pytrrb.cm.u Abstrct Child pedestrins re sme f ur mst vulnerble rd users nd Gvernments spend lrge munts f mney prviding sfe infrstructure t prtect them. The NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity's Centre fr Rd Sfety (CRS) recgnised tht systemtic needs-bsed llctin system fr infrstructure funding culd ssist the priritising nd selectin prcess fr schl zne sfety remedil mesures, nd engged ARRB t ssist in the develpment f reserch mdel t supprt this pprch. Literture n child-relted nd schl zne fctrs cntributing t crshes including child pedestrin csulty crsh dt in NSW ws reviewed. Crsh dt frm the NSW Crshlink dtbse nd the Sfety Arund Schls dtbse ws nlysed. [n cnsulttin with the CRS, ARRB then develped risk mdel t bjectively priritise schl zne rd envirnments in terms f risk t yung pedestrins. The mdel fctrs were: pprch speed limit, pek hur pedestrin crssing vlume nd AADT, number f trfhc lnes, n-street prking cnfigurtin, sight distnce, the number f cnflicting directins f trfhc, speed mngement nd pedestrin mngement schemes. The CRS used the SchlRisk mdel t lrstly identify nd then priritise schl znes t ssist their decisin mking fr the llctin f funding fr flshing lights n schl speed limit signs. ntrductin The pplictin f pr-ctive risk bsed pprch t rd sfety is nt new cncept. Hwever, the rective, crsh histry bsed respnse t rnking wrk prgrms remins the dminnt methd fr rd gencies fr determining fund llctins. This is due, in prt, t the bility t generte cst benefit nlyses t supprt nd justify the funding f prjects nd prgrms. At cmmunity nd pliticl level, ddressing knwn existing prblems mkes clerer sense when determining hw t spend limited funds. This pprch is nt s redily pplied t rd sfety issues where there is limited recrded crsh histry, but where, nnetheless, there is strng public nd pliticl supprt t implement imprvements. Child pedestrin cllisins in schl znes re ne such rd sfety prblem. One f the mst effective wys fprtecting pedestrins frm serius injury n the rd is t reduce the trvelling speed f mtrised vehicles [4]. n 2009, the NSW Gvernment sught t imprve the sfety f 40 km/h schl znes crss the stte using flshing light technlgy t highlight the lwer speed limit t schl zne times f pertin. The NSW Centre fr Rd Sfety (CRS) cncluded tht rnking sites ginst ech ther in n bjective, mesurble mnner wuld ssist the develpment f trgeted tretments nd llctin f ûnds. A risk bsed ssessment pprch is n ccepted prctice fr ssessing nd mnging ptentil sfety issues. The prcess f risk ssessment is described in cnsiderble detil in AS/N254360:2004 Risk Assessment 1401. AS/N2S4360 defines risk ssessment s 'the verll prcess f risk identifictin, risk nlysis nd risk evlutin'. At the time there ws n cnsistent tl vilble tht wuld enble schl zne sites t be ssessed nd rnked n the bsis fneed nd predicted beneht. The im fthe prject ws t develp SchlRisktl tht wuld llw the NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity t bjectively ssess risk t child pedestrins nd thereby priritise schl znes tht re in gretest need. Prject verview The first step in the prject ws literture review. The im ws t identify nd quntify mesurble demgrphic nd envirnmentl risk fctrs fr child pedestrins nd the reltive effectiveness fdevices which re used t mitigte envirnmentl risks. The secnd step ws nlysis f crsh dt frm the NSW Crshlink dtbse, nd the NSW Sfety Arund Schls dtbse. The third step ws the develpment f risk ssessment tl which ssisted the NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity t rnk schl sites in 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 3 August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 1
terms fneed nd predicted benefit frm the instlltin fflshing light technlgy t highlight schl speed limits. The hndings frm bth the literture review nd crsh dt nlysis infrmed the hnl mdel. Previus reserch Mesurble envirnmentl nd demgrphic fctrs were identified in the literture review fr further investigtin in the dt nlysis fr their bility t rnk schl znes n their level frisk. Trffic speed At higher speeds vehicles cver mre distnce in equivlent rectin times; brking distnce is incresed; the vehicle is mre difficult t cntrl; nd the frce f ny impct is incresed. The reltinship between impct speed nd pedestrin ftlity risk (given tht cllisin hs ccurred) is well-estblished [e.g. 4, 5, 25]. Hwever, t clculte the risk f pedestrin ftlity it is first necessry t clculte the likelihd f cllisin [e.g. l2]. tmybenecessrytmkedditinlllwnce frtheprerspeedjudgement tht children hve cmpred with dults [39, l]. n Austrli nd New Zelnd, mst child pedestrin csulties ccur n residentil streets [5, 42]. Evlutins f reductins in speed limits frm 60 t 50 km/h in built-up res hve fund pedestrin csulty crsh reductins f between 20% nd 50% l2l, 23, 24, 28, 331. Greter crsh reductins hve been chieved in urbn lctins [e.g. 21,33]. By selêreprt, mst drivers supprt schl zne speed limits nd cmply with speed limits [4]. Actul cmplincg hwever, is lw. An erly tril fund 40 nd 60 km/h schl znes in Victri t be effective in reducing men speeds t schl crssings within schl znes, but pprximtely hlfthe vehicles still exceeded the speed limit [46]. Bth individul trffic clming devices nd LATM (Lcl Are Trfhc Mngement) schemes re effective in reducing speed nd crshes (when designed nd cnstructed crrectly) U7,28,32]. Previus literture reviews hve fund n estimtes f the effect f LATM schemes nd individul trffic clming devices ñr pedestrin crshes 18, 2ll, but speed humps, pltfrms, islnds, chicnes nd minirundbuts hve ll been fund t be sscited with reductins in men nd 85th percentile speeds [28]. Trffic nd pedeslrin vlumes Vehiculr trffic vlume hs signif,rcnt psitive reltinship with pedestrin-vehicle cllisins [2], 38]. Trffic clming mesures cn reduce trffic vlumes, but they ls hve negtive impcts n emergeny service vehicles nd public buses [48]. US nd Eurpen reserch hs shwn significnt psitive reltinship between pedestrin trffic vlumes nd pedestrin-vehicle cllisins t intersectins nd t mrked nd unmrked 'crsswlks' [2 l]. There is debte but the reltinship between pedestrin vlumes nd cllisins with mtr vehicles, with sme predicting decresing crsh rtes per pedestrin nd/r cyclist s their vlumes increse [e.g. 44]. Hwever, this shuld nt be misinterpreted t men tht bslute numbers re expected t decrese. Cmplexity f crssings, íncluding rd width nd number f cnjlicting directins f trffic T crss rd sfely, the pedestrin must first chse plce t crss, mke gp selectin, nd then trverse the rd. Child pedestrins re cnsidered prticulrly vulnerble becuse they re still cquiring the cgnitive bilities necessry t mke sfe gp judgements ndthey re still gining the experience necessry t identify dngers in the rd envirnment. Chsing where t crss: Yung children hve nt yet develped n understnding fwhy it is unsfe t crss the rd frm between prked crs r n blind curve [39]. Smller physicl stture mkes children hrder t see, mking visibility f the fþth very imprtnt [2]. Gp selectin: Primry schl ge children re still develping the cgnitive bilities t cnsistently mke sfe crssing decisins l1l, 271. These skills include judging directin f sund, distnce, mvement nd speed. Yung primry schl ge children d nt hve the bility t cncentrte n mre thn ne piece f infrmtin t time nd they my cncentrte n irrelevnt detils [7, 391. Yung primry schl children d nt hve fully develped visul serch strtegy, nd their peripherl visin 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 31 August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 2
infrmtin prcessing nd visul cuity re still develping [39]. Crssing sfely: Yung children re still lerning the crrect use f crssings [30] nd they understnd things very literlly. Therefre, if yung child is tld schl crssing is 'sfe plce' t crss, the child my believe it is lwys sfe plce t crss with r withut the supervisr nd withut regrd fr trffic [9]. Yung schl children re esily distrcted nd hve the cpcity t genuinely believe illgicl things (fr instnce, 'll dults re nice peple wh will stp if they see me n the rd' [39]). Older schl children re mre influenced by peer pressure nd cn be ver-cnfident in their develping (but nt perfect) bilities, leding them t tke risks withut necessrily believing tht they re engging in risky behviur [4 l]. t ls tkes smller children lnger t crss the rd, incresing their expsure [l 2]. mpct f crssing type n the cmplexity f the tsk The width f the rd influences the time tht the pedestrin spends expsed n the rdwy nd the vrince in lterl psitining tht vehicle cn tke t the crssing pint [3]. Cmplex crssings with mre lnes nd/r mre directins frm which trffic cn pprch re mre difficult lr pedestrins t nvigte sfely [3]. Hwever, midblck crssings re sscited with higher levels fmtrist nd pedestrin misuse, s well s tendency twrd higher speed nd (therefre) higher severity crshes [8]. Presence nd effectiveness fprtective engineering devices t crssings nd lng rutes t the schl The mjrity f child pedestrin crshes in Austrli nd New Zelnd ccur t midblck lctins, mny fthese ccur rund midblck crssing lctins [8, 45]. Engineering methds freducing risk include:. seprting pedestrins frm mving trffic (e.g. fþths, gurdrils nd/r grde seprtinl). reducing the width fthe rd t be crssed (e.g. kerb extensin nd wider ftpths) imprving the visibility f pprching trffic t pedestrins nd vice vers (e.g. kerb extensins, wider ftpths, prhibitin fprking rund crssings nd intersectins) reducing the number f directins tht trffic cn pprch frm t ech crssing mneuvre (e.g. pedestrin refuges nd built medins) eliminting relince n gd gp selectin by requiring trfhc t stp s tht pedestrins cn crss (e. g. signlised, supervised nd zebr crssings). Amunt f n-street prking nd visibility f pedestrins t pprching trffic nd vice vers Kerbside prking rund schls is sscited with higher risk fchild pedestrin injuries [38]. Prked vehiclesblckthedriver'sviewftheftpth,ndthepedestrin'sviewfmvingvehicles. ln22%ï ftl cllisins invlving children ged 5 t l2 in Austrli between 1989 nd 1994, the child hd emerged frm in frnt f prked vehicle 8]. Bnning n-street prking hs been sscited with 30% reductin in csulty crshes invlving pedestrins [6, 19]. Althugh there ws n literture fund tht reltes specihclly t pedestrins, reserch shws n increse in risk t ll rd users when hrizntl lignment is pr nd sight distnce is reduced [43]. Other Jàctrs n Austrli, children t the ge when they typiclly strt primry schl (ge 5 t 7) nd strt secndry schl (ge 12 t 13) hve been the ge grups mst frequently invlved in csulty crshes t times f dy when they wuld typiclly be trvelling t r frm schl [8]. Secndry schl children trvel further independently nd therefre hve greter expsure t risks tht they my nt be fully equipped t del with in their first few yers f secndry schl. Hwever, becuse the jumey t schl is shrter fr primry schl children, they spend greter prprtin f their j urney within the cnfines f the schl zne [41]. Bys re mre frequently pedestrin csulties thn girls [8]. Childrenfrm lw sciecnmic grups re ften mre expsed t trfhc (unccmpnied), mre expsed t trfhc envirnments which re less sfe, nd cn be less infrmed but the risks f trffic. They hve higher risk fbeing pedestrin csulty U0, 16, 20,31,38,471. nexpertly designed gurdrils cn intrduce sight-distnce nd visibiliry issues. Thereticlly, grde seprted fcilities shuld eliminte csulties, but under- nd ver-psses re ften unttrctive 1 pedestrìns wh my find the grde t steep, feel their persnl sfety is cmprmised r feel like it is n unnecessry devìtin' 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference J 3l August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry
Other pedestrin risk nd sfety mdels The literture review identified number f mdels fr predicting pedestrin crshes in US literture review [21]. Mst were negtive binmil regressin mdels tht predicted pedestrin crshes bsed n nnul verge dily trffic, nnul verge dily pedestrin trfhc, nd ther site chrcteristics such s prprtin f right-tum vlume, number f lnes. n Austrli, 'Str rting system' ws develped t rte the sfety f rd crssings lng schl rutes [13]. The mdel is bsed n five fctrs tht influence the risk fcrsh nd injury t child pedestrin: (l) Speed limit; (2) Trffic vlumes; (3) Rd width; (4) Number f cnflicting directins f trfhc; nd (5) Frml crssing fcility. The cncept ñr this mdel ws t prvide prctitiners with n esy-t-use tl t ssist in designing sfe rutes t schl. Dt n these fctrs re esy t cllect thrugh site visits nd in sme cses, lcl uthrities will lredy hve recrd f ll r sme f the infrmtin. The SfeST (Sfe Schl Trvel) pckge ws intrduced in Queenslnd in 1996. The SfeST pckge is multi-disciplinry nd ims fr whle-êcmmunity wnership f rd sfety ñr children. A cmpnent fthe pckge is plin lnguge 'Checklist' tht helps t identify schl trvel sfety issues nd guides the user t discuss slutins with their Queenslnd Trnsprt Rd Sfety Cnsultnt. A cmplementry resurce, the Schl Envirnment S"fety Guidelines, prvides evidence-bsed recmmendtins nd implementtin instructins fr imprvements t the rd envirnment [37]. Gps in knwledge nd limittins f previus reserch n existing summries f child pedestrin csulty rtes, expsure is frequently neglected nd much f the Austrlin literture is quite ld. t is likely tht bth expsure nd child pedestrin csulties hve reduced in Austrli ver the lst ten yers, but it is difhcult t fìnd published sttistics n this. There is n estblished reltinship between impct speed nd risk f deth t pedestrin (e.g.[4]) nd estimtes f pedestrin ftl crsh risk ör given trvelling speed cn be clculted by cmbining this with stpping distnces t different trvel speeds [12]. Hwever: The reltinship between impct speed nd risk f deth r serius injury t child pedestrin my nt be the sme s fr n dult pedestrin. Due t the difference in child pedestrin skills nd behviurs, it is likely tht the risk f crsh ccurring is nt the sme fr child pedestrin s n dult pedestrin. n ssessing the effectiveness f engineering devices in terms fcrsh reductins lr pedestrins: Crsh reductins re ften nt given fr child pedestrins nd dult pedestrins seprtely. Crshes invlving pedestrins re sttisticlly rre events nd it is therefre difficult t reprt meningfully n crsh reductins fr pedestrins nd even mre s fr different ctegries fpedestrins. r Expsure is frequently neglected fr tretments tht re likely t ttrct nd cncentrte pedestrin ctivity rund the tretments (i.e. designted pedestrin crssings). S, crshes t new pedestrin fcilities my be seen t increse in reltin t cntrl sites but there is n wy f knwing whether crshes re higher r lwer per crssing r pedestrin trip. The prblem f regressin twrd the men is frequently nt tken int ccunt in studies where the tretment hs been instigted in respnse t crsh prblem. Althugh ìt ws nt pssible t ddress ll f the issues listed bve, the dt nlysis f the current prject imed t prvide updted child pedestrin csulty sttistics fr NSW, nd depictin f the reltinship befween the rd envirnment nd child pedestrin crshes during schl trvel times. Attempts were mde t include expsure, but unfrtuntely the prvisin f vlume dt in the schl crsh dtbse ws vrible nd bised twrds schls where crshes hd ccurred. 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 4 3 August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Tenitry
Methd Dt n ll child pedestrin csulties in NSW during schl trvel times ws btined frm the NSW Crshlink dtbse. The NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity prvided ARRB with dt n ll crshes invlving child pedestrin between 2003 nd 2007. Anlyses were restricted t thse crshes resulting in child pedestrin csulties in NSW between Mndy nd Fridy during schl term between the hurs f 7:30-9:30 m nd 2:30-5:00 pm where the child ws ged 5 t l8 yers. n the cntext f this pper, 'csulties' refers t ll injury severities nd ftlities. n dditin, sme fthe nlysis ws restricted t thse crshes ccurring in schl znes. Dt n child pedestrin csulties in NSW schl znes ws extrcted frm the Sfety Arund Schls dtbse mintined by the NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity. Dt frm this surce ws mtched with dt lrm the Crshlink dtbse t prvide dditinl infrmtin regrding the incidents resulting in the csulties. Sme dditinl ppultin dt ws surced frm the ABS (Austrlin Bureu f Sttistics) website [1]. Results Chrcteristics f chitd pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times (NS(, 2003-200D2 A ttl f 983 child pedestrin csulties ccurred during schl trvel times in NSW between 2003 nd 2007. They decresed frm 220 fr the yer 2003 t 85 fr the yer 2007. Of thse 983 child pedestrin csulties, 96 were identihed s ccurring in schl znes. The incidence fchild pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times incresed frm ge 5-12 yers then drpped stedily (Figure l). 12Ð q '100.E õ 80 E Ø ê.9 =E u -ô E J 2 g E60 6 40 æ 0 5 Ë 7 Ê 9'r0 11 12 13 14 15 16'17 18 Age (yers) Figure : Age distributin f child pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times (NS\ry, 2003-2007) The dt nlysis identified tht mles were generlly mre likely t be pedestrin csulty during schl jurney times thn femles (Tble l). The difference ws mst prnunced in the erly t middle primry schl yers (ges 5 t 8 yers) nd the difference generlly decresed with ge. Tble 1: Rti f mle nd femle child pedestrin csulties 5 t 7 yers 8 t l0 yers t 13 yers 14 t 16 yers Femøle Mle Røti møles l 48 78 125 l13 94 t2t t62 t27 17 t 18 58 5',l Ttl 422 s61 1.3 2.0..1 1.6:l 1.3: l.l : 1.0: 2 All results in this sectin re bsed n nlysis fdt frm the Crshlink dtbse [34]. 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 31 August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 5
Themjrityfcrshesccurred tjurneyhmetimes,prticulrlybetween3nd4 pm. Bthsexes were lmst eqully likely t be csulties t pek rrivl nd leving times (8:30 m nd 3:30 pm) but mles were nticebly mre likely thn femles t be csulties erlier in the mrning, just befre 3:30 pm nd lter in the fternn (Figure 2). r l 60.9 tú ãs c õ40 +Feml {-Mâle ü (, Ìl n " CL s 5r + br - E =z0 F \ r? c F Jurney t schl Time f dy Jurney hme Figure 2: Child pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times by time f dy nd gender Time f dy when the csulty ccurred ws clustered rund schl rrivl nd leving times õr yunger children (ged 5 t l0 yers) nd ws mre dispersed fr lder children (Figure 3). tt Ff) 5-- E. th 6 60 tr.e- 6 Ê40 30 tt È,n ô10 0r^ -u E f 2 Ì F -+-StTyers t 10 yers -t- 1 t 13 yer(.- 14 t l6 yerl -- 17 l'18 yer! Jurney t schl Time f dy Jurney hme FÍgure 3: Child pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times by time f dy nd ge grup The mst cmmn lctins f csulties were tw-wy undivided rds (nt shwn) nd yunger children were mre likely t be injured t midblck lctins thn lder children (Tble 2). Tble 2: Percentge f child pedestrin csulties ccurring t midblck versus intersectin lctins during schl trvel times Ase (yers) Tvpe f lctin 5J 8-10 11-13 t4-16 17-18 Midblck ntersectin Unknwn N (j? 53.5 45.8 0.7 i { s2.3 47.7 0.0 N q 51.6 47.7 0.7 ul q 46.7 53.3 0.0 N q F q 42.6 Ttl 100.0 100.0 99.3 100.0 100.0 56.5 0.9 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 31 August - 3 September 2Q10, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 6
The gretest prprtin f csulties ccurred n rds with psted speed limit f 50 km/h, fllwed by 60 km/h nd then 40 km/h. Older children \ r'ere mre likely t hve incidents n rds with higher psted speed limits thn yunger children (Figure 4). c.9 E t re 6! b* Ð 6 ù À 100.0 90,0 80.0 70.0 60.0 500 400 300 200 't0 0 00 5t7 8t10 11t13 14t16 'l7l'18 Age grup (yers) < 30 km/t 40 km/h 50 km/h 160 km/h 170 kmih E > 80 km/r Figure 4: Prprtin f child pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times ccurring in different speed limit znes n the mjrity f child pedestrin crshes during schl trvel times, the key vehicle in the pedestrin csulty ws cr (r cr derivtive; 77Y f vehicles) tht ws prceeding in their lne (88% f ll vehicles). n smll number f cses the vehicle ws turning right r left frm their wn lne (8% f vehicles). n nerly ll cses, the vehicle ws believed t hve been trvelling t speed belw the pplicble speed limit Child pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times were mre likely t invlve child ttempting t crss the rd thn perfrming ny ther mneuvre igure 5). Yunger children \ /ere mre likely thn lder children, nd mles were mre likely thn femles, t hve been running crss the rd (genders nt shwn in grph). Wlk crss crrigewy Run crss crrigewy Ped nt n cíigewy Plying/sktebrd/n ty vehiclel Stnding / lying r sitì ng n c'w!, Wlk w th/ginst trffc Step ff/nt kerb r medin E Other G E! Êø! '== àñ v! Ëg O P 6 e À 100 0 900 800 700 600 500 40.0 300 20.0 'f00 00 5t7 8t10 11t13 14t16 Age grup (yers) Figure 5: Percentge f child pedestrin csulties by ge nd pedestrin mvement prir t incident 17 t 18 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 3l August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 7
Crshes in schl znes3 Ofthse csulties tht ccurred within 40 km/h schl znes, the pprch speed t the schl zne hd psitive reltinship with csulty risk. Specificlly, the reltive risk f child pedestrin csulty in schl zne with 60 km/h pprch speed limit ws 1.6 cmpred with schl znes with 50 km/h pprch speed limit. The reltive risk f pedestrin csulty bsed n number f schl znes with 2,4 nd 6 lnes f trffic ws highest ôr schl znes with fur lnes f trffic nd lwest fr tw lnes. When pprch speed limit ws ls included in the clcultin f reltive risk, risk incresed expnentilly with increses in speed limit nd increses in number f trffic lnes (Figure 6). 7 c6 6- 'Ë 6 Ã rcl tt >, =sî -tr õ (,f r*^ v QJ.12 92 l! õ úl 0 km/h 2lnes - r') - - fs km/h 4 tnes è 40 -.: íkm/h2rnes km/h 2 nes Number f lnes & pprch speed lim t /' / 60 kmih 6 lnes )z' 60 km/h 4 lnes,/ Figure 6: Reltive risk f child pedestrin csulty by 2, 4 r 6 lne schl zne n t lest ne qurter f csulties tht ccurred when pedestrin ttempted t crss the rd, they hd emerged frm behind prked r sttinry vehicle. The crsh reprts indicted tht yunger children were mre likely t hve emerged frm behind prked r sttinry vehicle. Emergìng frm behind prked r sttinry vehicle ws nted s the primry errr fctr 47Y f the time when prking fcilities were present cmpred with23%" f the time when prking fcilities were nt present4. Mst csulties ccurred n stright rds, but there were smll vritins in the percentges f different ge grups wh were csulties n curved rds. Crssing fcilities were present t mre thn tw-thirds f schl znes where csulties ccurred. Hlf f these were 'mrked ft crssings' nd smll prprtin f the znes where csulty hd ccurred ls hd schl crssing supervlsrs. (Jrbnistin, sci-ecnmic sttus nd child ppultins Sydney, Wllngng nd Newcstle LGAs hd mre child pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times per child ppultin thn rurl NSW LGAs. Amng Sydney LGAs, there were generlly fewer children per high sci-ecnmic sttus LGA nd mre children per lw sci-ecnmic sttus LGA. Sci-ecnmic sttus ws mesured frm the sci-ecnmic index fr res (SEFA) [1 ]. Higher scres n the SEFA indicte higher scil nd ecnmic wellbeing. There ws negtive reltinship between sci-ecnmic sttus nd pedestrin csulties per child ppultin during schl trvel times in Sydney LGAs (but nly ñr 5 t 9 yer lds). Fr rurl NSW (nt including Wllngng nd Newcstle) there were generlly mre children per high sci-ecnmic sttus LGA nd fewer children per lw sciecnmic sttus LGA. There ws ls wek psitive reltinship between sci-ecnmic sttus nd pedestrin csulties per child ppultin during schl trvel times in rurl NSW LGAs (but nly fr l0 t 14 yer lds). 3 AU results in this sectin re bsed. n nlysis fd.t Íim the Sf'ety Arund Schls dtbse [34] OPri-uryetrfctrwsmissing50%fthetimewhenprkingfcilitieswerepresent nd,t2%fthetimewhenprkingfcilities Er'ere nt present. " Results in this sectin re bsed n nlysis fdt frm the Crshlink dtbse [34], supplemented with dt frm the ABS tll. 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 3l August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 8
Tble 3: Spermn crreltin between LGA SEFA scre, child ppultin nd pedestrin csulties Spermn crreltín between SEFA nd Sydney Rurl NSW Child ppultin (5-19 yrs) Pedestrin csulties / child ppultin (5-9 yrs) Pedestrin csulties / child ppultin (10-14 yrs) Rh6:-.546**t, Rh : -.532 ** Rh:.105 (n.s.) Rlr -.435 'r'* r'. Rh:.135 (n.s.) Rh :.248 ** +t!* p <.001, +* p <.01, n.s. : nt sttisticlly signihcnt Risk Mdelling Using the infrmtin frm the literture review nd dt nlysis, series f cntingency tbles were prduced, which llwed the cmputtin f 'reltive risk index' fr ny prticulr site bsed n the chrcteristics f tht site. The literture review nd dt nlysis influenced wht site chrcteristics were included in the finl risk mdel, n verview f which cn be seen in Tble 4. Tble 4: Overview f fctrs included in the risk mdel Existing Eight d stånce v ilble N, f cnflicting trffic directins Existing speed månågement scheme Exist ng pedestriên mèngement scheme These fðctrs ere ll ble t be cllected by pràctitiners ðnd entered nt spreèdsheet t prduce risk scre tht cn bt båsed n pedestrin risk. Recmmendêt ns fr imprving child pedestrin sfety Dm Ech cell in the cntingency tble cntins risk clcultin bsed n the number f schl sites with child pedestrin crshes divided by the ttl number f sites which shre the chrcteristics fthe rw nd clumn risk fctrs. Reltive risks cn then be clculted frm these rw risk scres. The rw risk fctr in every tble is pprch speed limit s this is the mst imprtnt fctr fr which the mst cmplete dt is vilble. Appendix A shws the input screen Discussin The develpment f rd sfety risk mdel is nt withut precedent. Other risk mdels hve been develped using crsh dt t estblish reltive risk scres fr specific prmeters. Severl studies were identified in the literture review tht sught t exmine pedestrin sfety, prticulrly fctrs relting t childhd develpment, s bsis fr understnding nd imprving sfety in the rd envirnment. One instnce ws fund where n ssessment prcess gives 'str rting' t crssings n rutes used by schl children t nd frm schl [3]. This mdel ws nt restricted t schl znes nd did nt cver ll the fctrs discussed in this prject. N risk bsed ssessment mdel ws lund tht permitted redy nd relible rnking fthe specific rd envirnments tht re present t mrked schl znes. A benefit f the SchlR skmdel is tht it is reltively esy t dd extr infrmtin but crshes nd risk fctrs int the dtbse nd reclculte risk scres s the infrmtin becmes vilble. This A " Spermn's R1r ws used in preference t Persn's rbecuse the SEFA scle is n rdinl mesurement nd bth the ppultin per LGA nd the crsh dt were psitively skewed. 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 9 31 August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry
flexibility ws prt f the design t ensure the pprch mintined relevnce nd functinlity t the NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity ver time. Key Findings frm the Crsh Dt Anlysis 983 child pedestrin csulties ccurred during schl trvel times in NSW between 2003 nd 2007-96 (less thn l0%) fthese ccurred in schl znes. The likelihd f child pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times increses frm ges 5 t 12 yers then drps firly stedily. Mre csulties ccur t jurney hme thn jurney t schl times. Mles re mre likely thn femles t be pedestrin csulty during jurney t nd frm schl times, prticulrly in the erly t middle primry schl yers nd t mre disperse times f dy thn the pek schl strt nd finish times. Mst child pedestrin csulties ccur n 50 km/h tw Ìne undivided rds. Mst 40 km/h schl znes in which child pedestrin csulties ccurred hd 50 km/h pprch, but reltive risk ws higher fr znes with 60 km/h pprch, prticulrly if the zne hd fur r mre lnes. Children were mst likely t hve been ttempting t crss the rd when they were struck - yunger children were mre likely t hve been running thn lder children. Yunger children were mre likely thn lder children t hve emerged frm behind prked r sttinry vehicle. When prking ws vilble, the primry errr ws twice s likely t be tht the child emerged frm between prked vehicles. Children in rurl NSW were less likely t be pedestrin csulties during schl trvel times (per 10,000 children) thn children in the Sydney, Vy'llngng nd Newcstle metr LGAs. Mny fthe ge nd gender differences re likely t reflect differences in levels findependent trvel, trip length nd destintin, chnges in trvelling times nd grdul imprvement in pedestrin skills nd impulse cntrl (s discussed erlier in this pper). The mst imprlnt envirnmentl fctrs were speed limit, number f trffic lnes nd prking. This is vlidted by previus reserch nd these fctrs re resnbly intuitive. The psitive reltinship between speed limit nd crsh risk is well-estblished. Number f lnes nd speed limit cn be cnsidered prxy mesure frthe type f rd, trffic mix nd trffic vlume tht the rd crries. Fr instnce, 60 km/h rds re typiclly tw r fur lne undivided rds. They re ften minr rterils r cllectrs nd ptentilly cntin shpping strips. They re therefre mre likely t crry higher vlumes f trff,ic thn 50 km/h lcl streets nd t hve mre lnes ftrfhc fr pedestrins t negtite. Prking cn bscure pedestrins frm vehicles nd vice vers. Where prking fcilities were present, the primry errr fctr ws twice s likely t be tht the pedestrin hd emerged f m behind prked r sttinry vehicle. This finding suggests tht prking is n imprtnt fctr t include in risk mdels, but withut hving n estimte f expsure, it is difficult t cme up with n ccurte risk scre. Similrly, ther fctrs tht cn bscure visibility such s the presence f curves in the rd wuld likely be wrthwhile inclusins if their prevlence in the schl zne envirnment ws recrded. Thrugh the explrtin f previus reserch, risk scres were ble t be develped fr these fctrs. t is imprtnt t recgnise tht in this instnce the vlues were nt derived frm lcl crsh dt. Hwever, the prmeters re seen s imprtnt t prviding vlid schl zne risk scre. Limittins The success f the risk ssessment methd depends n the cmpleteness f dt fr the fllwing fctrs t ll schl sites (nt just thse t which crshes hve ccurred) in NSW: trffic vlumes nd pedestrin vlumes speed limit during schl trvel hurs nd pprch speed limit presence nd cncentrtin f LATM devices (these will influence vehicle trvelling speeds rund the schl nd prbbly ls indicte pre-instlment prblem with excessive speed) 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 3 August - 3 September 201 0, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 10
. types f rds surrunding the schl, prticulrly n typicl entrnce/exit rutes (i.e. ne-wy, tw-wy, tw-lne undivided, divided etc. - reltes t cmplexity f crssing tsk) lctin nd type f crssing fcilities (including trffic islnds, pedestrin refuges nd kerb extensins ifpssible - reltes t cmplexity fcrssing tsk). presence nd type f n-street prking rund the schl (this hs implictins ñr pedestrin visibility). Recmmendtins were mde t NSW Rds nd Trfhc Authrity regrding 'prctitiner-friendly' lwcst methds f cllecting this dt. Cnclusins The im f the prject ws t develp tl tht wuld llw the NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity t bjectively rnk nd thereby priritise schl znes by risk. A tl hs been develped tht des this, nd the feedbck frm prctitiners using the tl hs been gd. Althugh the riginl develpment f this risk mdel ws fr the priritistin f flshing lights n schl zne signs, the SchlRisk tl hs much brder ptentil pplictin. SchlRisk llws prctitiners t bjectively ssess the level frisk in schl zne befre children re injured. C)nce prctitiner hs identified tht schl zne hs high risk fr child pedestrin csulties, the risk rting frm the tl cn ls help prvidejustifictin fr pprprite tretments. Further develpment f the SchlRisk mdel culd include prviding recmmendtins fr tretments t mnge risks in the schl zne envirnment. T certin extent this hs been incrprted int the current versin f the mdel by reprting the risk scres fr ech prmeter nd hving the bility t rnk the list f sites by nt nly the reltive risk scre but ñr specific risk fctrs ls. This multiple rnking bility llws highest risk fctrs t be identihed s specific cuntermesures cn be cnsidered. Acknwledgments ARRB grtefully cknwledges the ssistnce f NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity in flnding this prject, prviding ccess t the necessry dtbses, nd prviding relevnt ncl helpful feedbck in the prcess f develping nd testing the SchlRisk mdel. References 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ABS 2006, Sci-Ecnmic ndex fr Ares, <http://www.bs.gv.ulwebsitedbs/d33 101 l4.nsf/hme/seif_entry_pgè. Allsp G, Jhnsn L, Spn D, Prestn M, Mrel E, FitzGerld C, Jing Q nd Lee D 2007, 'Qulittive nd quntittive pedestrin reserch in NSW', cnference prceedings f the 2007 Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference. Ampf-Bteng K, Thmsn JA, Grieve R, Pitcim T, Lee DN & Demetre JD 1993, 'A develpmentl nd trining study fchildren's bility t flrnd sfe rutes t crss the rd', Brilish Jurnl f Develpmentl Psychlgy, vl., pp. 3 1-45. Andersn RWG, Mclen AJ, Frmer MFB, Lee BH nd Brks CG 1997,'Vehicle trvel speeds nd the incidence f ftl pedestrin crshes,' Accident Anlysis & Preventin, vl.29, issue 5, pp.667-674. Austrds 2000, Pedestrin nd cyclist sfety investigtin f ccidents in dffirent rd envirnmenls, Austrds, Sydney, Austrli. Austrds 20Q4, Guide t trffic engineering prctice - retmenl f crsh lctins, publictin n. AP-Gl 1.4/04, Sydney, Austrli. Brtn BK & Schwebel DC 2007,'The rles f ge, gender, inhibitry cntrl, nd prentl supervisin in children's pedestrin sfety', Jurnl fpeditric Psychlgyvl.32, issue 5, pp.517-526. Cimey P 1999, Pedestrin sfety in Austrli, publictin n. FHWA-RD-99-093, US Deprtment ftrnsprttin, Federl Highwy Administrtin, Mclen, Virgini, Americ. 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 3l August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 11
9 Cmpbell B, Zegeer CV, Hung HH & Cynecki MJ 2004, A review f pedestrin sfety in the United Sttes nd brd, Reprt N. FHWA-RD-03-042, Federl Flighwys Administrtin, Mclen, Virgini, Ameri c. 10 Christie N 1995, The high risk child pedestrin: sci-ecnmic nd envirnmentl fctrs in their ccidents, TRL Prject Reprt 17, Berkshire, Englnd. t1 Cngiu M, Wheln M, Oxley J, D'Eli A & Chrltn J 2006,'Crssing rds sfely: n experimentl study f ge nd gender differences in gp selectin by child pedestrins,' cnference prceedings fthe 2006 Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference. 12 Crben BF, D'Eli A & Hely D,2006'Estimting pedestrin ftl crsh risk', cnference prceedings fthe 2006 Rd SJèty Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference. 13. Crben BF, Lgn DB nd Oxley JA 2008, Str rting schl wlking rutes, MUARC Reprt N. 275, Melburne, Austrli. 14. Cttm P 2001, 'Christchurch's 40km/h prt time schl speed zne tril: cmmunity perceptins nd ttitudes', prceedings fthe 2001 Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Educt in Cnference, Melburne, Austrli. 15. Deprtment f nfrstructure, Trnsprt, Reginl Develpment nd Lcl Gvemment, Austrlin Rd Deths Dtbse - Online, (retrieved n 1 June 20 l0), <http://www.infrstructure.gv.ulrds/sfety/rd_ftlity_sttistics/ftl_rd_crsh_dtbs 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. e.spx>. Dfl 2002, Rd ccident invlvement f children frm ethnic minrities, Rd Sfety Reserch Brd Reprt N. 19, Deprtment fr Trnsprt, Lndn, United Kingdm. Elvik R & V T 2004, The hndbk f rd sfety mesures, Elsevier, Oxfrd, United Kingdm. FORS 1996, Mngrph 8: Pedestrin csulties: children in erly schl yers, viewed l4 July 2008, <http:llwww.infrstructure.gv.ulrds/sfety/publictins/1996/pdf/chlld_ped_ 1.pdÞ. Gn A, Shen J nd Rdriguez A 2005, Updte fflrid crsh reductin fctrs nd cuntermesures t imprve the develpment f district sfety imprvement prjects, Flrid Deprtment f Trnsprttin. Grhm D, Glister S & Andersn R 2005, 'The effects f re deprivtin n the incidence f child nd dult pedestrin csulties in Englnd', Accident Anlysß & Preventin, vl.37, pp.l25-l 35. Hrwd DW, Trbic DJ, Gilmre DK, Bkenkrger CD, Dunn JM, Zegeer CV, Srinivsn R, Crter D, Rbrn C, Lyn C & Persud B 2008, Pedestrin sfety predictin methdlgy, NCHRP web-nly dcument 129: Phse, Trnsprttin Reserch Brd, viewed 13 August 2008, <http:l lnlinepubs.trb.rglnlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp w 29p3.pdÞ. Hreu E nd Newsted S 2004, An evlutin f the defult 50 km/h speed limits in Western Austrli, MUARC Reprt N. 230. Hreu E, Newsted S nd Cmern M 2006, An evelutin f the defult 50 km/h speed limit in Victri, MUARC Reprt N. 261, Melbume, Austrli. Hreu E, Newsted S, Oxley P nd Cmern M 2003, An eyluqtin f 50 km/h speed límits in Suth Est Queenslnd, MUARC Reprt N. 264, Melbume, Austrli. Jensen SU 1999, 'Pedestrin sfety in Denmrk', Jurnl fthe Trnsprttin Reserch Brd, Trnsprttin Reserch Recrd 67 4, pp. 6L -69 Jensen SU, Andersen T, Hnsen W, Kjærgrd E, Krg T, Lrsen JE, l Cur Lund B & Thst P 2000, Cllectin f cycling cncepts, Rd Directrte, Cpenlgen, Denmrk. Jhnssn C, Gårder P & Leden L 2004,'Twrds sfe envirnment fr children nd elderly s pedestrins nd cyclists - A synthesis bsed n n nlysis fvide recrdings fbehviur nd plice reprted crshes including in-depth studies f ftlities,' prceedings f the 3rd nlerntinl Cnference n Trffic nd Trnsprttin Psychlgy, viewed l5 July 2008, <http ://w /w.psychlgy.nttinghm.c. uk/aapdivl 3>. Jurewicz C 2008, 'mpct f LATM tretments n speed nd sfety - verview f recent reserch', cnference prceedings fthe 23rd ARRB Cnference - Reserch Prtnering with Prctiliners, Adelide, Austrli, 2008. Kleden C, Wlley J nd Mclen J 2007,'A Fllw-up Evlutin f the 50km/h Defult Urbn Speed Limit in Suth Austrli', cnference prceedings f ihe 2007 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference viewed 9 July 2008 <http ://www.rdsfetycnference2 007.cm.ulfi nlppers.php>. 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 3 August - 3 September 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry 12
30 McGregr C, Smiley A & Dunk W 1999, 'dentifying gps in child pedestrin sfety: Cmpring wht children d with wht prents tech', Jurnl f the Trnsprttin Reserch B rd, Trnsprttin Reserch Recrd 67 4, pp.32-39. 31 McMhn P, Zegeer CV, Duncn C, Knbluch RL, Stewrt JR nd Khttk AJ 2002, An nlysis f fctrs cntributing t 'wlking lng rdwy' crshes: Reserch study nd guidelines fr sidewlks nd wlkwys, FHWA-RD-01-101, Federl Highwy Administrtin, Mclen, Virgini, United Sttes. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 41. 48. NCHRP 2005, Highwy Sfety Mnul - Revised Anntted Outline - Mrch 2005. NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity 2000, 50 km/h urbn speed limit evlutin, ARRB cntrct reprt numbers RC900l3 nd RCl723, reprts fr NSW Rds nd Trfhc Authrity. NSW Rds nd Trfhc Authrity, Crshlink Dtbse, ccessed l7 July 2008. NSW Rds nd Trffic Authrity, Sfety Arund Schls dtbse, ccessed 17 July 2008. Oxley J, Crben B & Fildes B 2004, Older vulnerble rd users: mesures t reduce crsh nd injury risk, MUARC Reprt N. 218, Melburne Austrli. Queenslnd Trnsprt 2005, Schl Envirnment Sfety Guidelines: A guide fr the imprvements f rd sfety ner schls including n utline f the SleST pckge nd Guidelines fr the prvisin frd sfety fcilities ner schls, Relese Versin 1.01 Jnury 2005, viewed l8 August 2010, < http://tmr.qld.gv.ul-/medi/sfety/schl-rd-sfety/sfeschl -trvel -sfest/schl-zne-speedlimits/pdfrsschlsesgv l0ljn2005v2.pdþ. Rberts, Nrtn R, Jcksn R, Dunn R & Hssll 1995, 'Effect f envirnmentl fctrs n risk f injury f child pedestrins by mtr vehicles: cse-cntrl study', BMJ, 310:91-94. Schieber RA & Thmpsn NJ 1996, 'Develpmentl risk fctrs fr childhd pedestrin injuries', njury Preventin, vl.2, pp.228-236., Stndrds Austrli 2004, Risk Mngement, 3' editin, AS/NZS4360:2004, Stndrds Austrli, Strthfield, NSW. Tlmie A, Thmsn JA, O'Cnnr R, Ft HC, Krginnidu E, Bnks M, O'Dnnell C, Srvry P 2006, The rle fskills, ttitudes nd perceived behviurl cntrl in the pedestrin decisin-mking fdlescents ged 1-15 yers, Rd Sfety Reserch Brd Reprt N. 68, Deprtment fr Trnsprt, Lndn, United Kingdm. Turner B 2006, Literture review fspeed reducing mesures in schl znes, Reprt N. VC3930-1 (drft), ARRB Grup, Melburne, Austrli. Turner B 2008, Rd Sfety Engineering Risk Assessment - Findings frm prgrm f reserch, cnference prceedings f the 23rd ARRB Cnference - Reserch Prtnering with Prctitiners, Adelide, Austrli, 2008. Turner S, Rzenburg AP & Frncis T 2006, Predicting ccident rtes fr cyclists nd pedestrins, Lnd Trnsprt New Zelnd Reserch Reprt 289, Wellingtn, New Zelnd. Tutert E 2004, '^ sfe rding envirnment ôr children: the identifictin f fctrs cntributing t crshes invlving children s pedestrins nd cyclists in The Netherlnds nd New Zelnd', cnference prceedings fthe nstitutin fprfessinl Enginee s New Zelnd (PENZ) Trnsprttin Cnference, 2004,'Wellingtn, New Zelnd. Uber, C.8., Brtn, E.V., And Brwn, F. Mck. (1992).'Tril f Prt-Time Schl Speed Znes', Prceedings f the 6thARRB Cnference, Perth, Vl l6 $),pp203-218. White D, Reside R nd Brker D 2000, Rd ccidents nd children living in disdvntged res: literture review, reprt t The Scttish Executive Centrl Reserch Unit. Wigmre BJ, Bs CP, Wde WB nd Bs PH 2006, Schl jurney sfety: cmprtive study f engineering devices, Lnd Trnsprt New Zelnd Reserch Reprt 2T l,wterl Quy, V/ellingtn, New Zelnd. 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference 13 3 August - 3 September 20 10, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry
Appendix A - Risk Mdel input screen rrb Schl Pedestrin Risk Mdel SchlRisk Schl nme Albert BC Schl Rd Nme Schl level Dte f ssessment Rted by Quiet Rd lnf ntslprirnry 21 Nvember 2008 RTA Regin C Reltive Risk Ap rrch epeed limit 4fl hmlh 1.0 Pek hur pedeetrin crssing vhrme 20 ph f Rd AADT 500 upd 0.3 Likelihd Tqtl number f lnes t crss f 1.00 v On-strect pf,rkiq P rellel 1.25 ç Si0lrt distrrce Stenderd 1.0u llumþer f crflicting trfüc tlirectins 2 1.tft Existing speed mrrgement echeme Verticl tretmenls 1.00 Existing pede*trin mngement Superuised crssing 1.00 Likelihd Sub-ttl 8.25 Sw Recd Schl Pedestrin Rislr Scre 2.28 Specific ntes: 2010 Austrlsin Rd Sfety Reserch, Plicing nd Eductin Cnference t4 3 August - 3 Septembet 2010, Cnberr, Austrlin Cpitl Territry