Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Percent Change, SAAR 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.
National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month 500 300 100-100 -300-500 -700 Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months -900 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.
State Employment Growth Year-over-Year October 2016 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 Average U-6 U-6 U-5 9.3% 6.0 4.0 Average U-3 U-3 5.8% 4.6% 2.0 0.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Labor Force Participation Rates National by Age Cohort LFPR 90.0 80.0 70.0 1986 2015 1998 1990 1997 2009 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 Peak 2015 Current 2015 10.0 0.0 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).
Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2015 Percentage 80 70 60 50 LFPR 40 30 20 10 Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a High School diploma High School graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).
U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 4.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption 3.0 2.2% 3.0 2.4% 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0-1.0-1.0-2.0-2.0-3.0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017-3.0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: Consensus Forecasts.
Household Wealth Q2 2001-Q2 2016 $ Trillions 120 100 80 Other Assets 60 40 20 0-20 Q2 2000 Q2 2002 Q2 2004 Q2 2006 Q2 2008 Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Q2 2014 Q2 2016 Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Total Liabilities Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 Debt Service Ratio (L) FOR 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 Financial Obligations Ratio (R) 16.5 16.0 15.5 9.0 1994 1996 1999 2002 2005 2007 2010 2013 2016 15.0 Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.
Index of Consumer Confidence 1985=100 Recession 8 months 160 Recession 18 months 140 Mountain Region 120 100 80 60 United States 40 20 0 1990 1991 1993 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2011 2013 2015 2016 Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.
Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Vehicle Sales Annual Percent Change 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 Retail and Food Services Sales 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2016-15.0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2016 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change Business Fixed Investment 30.0 10.0 25.0 20.0 5.0 3% 15.0 10.0 5.0 2.2% 0.0-5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-10.0-15.0-15.0-20.0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017-20.0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.
ISM Indices 70 65 60 ISM Manufacturing Index 70 65 60 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 30 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q3 2016 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.
Housing Affordability Index Composite Index 220 180 140 100 60 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source: National Association of Realtors.
National Housing Starts Millions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.
Federal Budget Balance $ Billions 400 200 0-200 -400-600 -800 -$570-1,000-1,200-1,400-1,600 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.
International Trade Major Export Destinations Other 39% Export Destinations Index Jan. 1997=100 135 Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar, 2000-2016 Canada 18% 130 125 120 115 Switzerland 3% Germany 3% Republic of Korea 4% Malaysia 5% Japan 6% China 8% Mexico 14% 110 105 100 95 90 Sources: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Broad Dollar Index, and National Bureau of Economic Research. Data through November 10, 2016.
Money, Interest Rates, and Prices
Interest Rates Percent 7.0 Interest Rates, 2000-2017 (Forecast) 6.0 10-Year T-Note 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 3-Month T-Bill 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody s.
National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Shelter All items less food and energy 1.0 0.0 All items -1.0-2.0-3.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).
Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices
Change in Population Change in Colorado Population 2001-2017 Thousands 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Net Migration 2nd-fastest state for percentage growth 7th-fastest state for absolute growth 5th-most net migration 96% of growth along Front Range 40,000 20,000 0 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Natural Increase Denver now the most populous county Continued net migration into the state Source: Colorado Demography Office.
Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 -120 63,400 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, BEOF Committee Members.
Employment Change 2016-2017 Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Construction Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Financial Activities Government Other Services Manufacturing Information Natural Resources and Mining -6-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Thousands of Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Greeley Fort Collins Boulder Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Employment Growth YoY % Change September 2016 Colorado 2.7% Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Unemployment Rate September 2015 Colorado SA 3.8%, 3.0% NSA Greeley Fort Collins Boulder Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Percentage 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Percentage Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Agriculture Photo courtesy of Jill Lambert.
Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income 2007-2017 $ Millions 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Net Income Farm Production Expenses $7.1B 1,000 Photo courtesy of Sandy Wilt. 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Livestock Cash Receipts 2007-2017 $ Millions 6,000 5,000 65% of total value of production in Colorado 4,000 3,000 2,000 $4.1B Rebuilding herds in favorable low cost environment Fed cattle numbers rebounding from the 2015 record low Number of cattle sales anticipated to drop to lowest level since 1986 1,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Commodity Prices Wheat and Corn Dollars 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 Wheat 4.0 Corn 2.0 0.0 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: Bloomberg (USDA Toledo No.2 Yellow Corn Not on the River Spot Price, USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat Spot Price/Kansas City Missouri). As of November 2016.
Crops Cash Receipts 2007-2017 $ Millions 3,000 2,500 Corn prices remain low as yield is projected to reach record highs 2,000 1,500 1,000 $1.9B Major crops: wheat, corn, and hay Cash receipts expected to fall in 2017 to $321MM Government payments expected to increase in 2017 500 Innovation will play an increasing role for agriculture 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Net Farm Income $ Millions 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 $391 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Agriculture Committee.
Construction Value of Construction Nonbuilding 17% Nonresidential 30% Residential 53% Photo Courtesy www.rtd-fastracks.com
Housing Units vs. Households Annual Change 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Housing Units 2001-2007 119,895 more housing units than households 2008-2015 109,817 more households than housing units 30,000 20,000 10,000 Households 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Colorado State Demography Office.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices September 2016 New York Washington, D.C. Cleveland Boston Chicago Minneapolis Phoenix Atlanta San Diego Las Vegas San Francisco Detroit Los Angeles Charlotte Miami Tampa Dallas Denver Portland Seattle 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Percent Change Source: Standard & Poor s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Residential Building Permits 2007-2017 40,000 35,000 36,700 Residential Housing: 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Multifamily Home appreciation among the fastest nationally Mostly single family permits in 2016 Decrease in multifamily 10,000 5,000 0 Single Family 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Value of Construction Residential, 2007-2017 $Millions 10,000 $9.7 B 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Value of Construction Nonresidential, 2007-2017 $ Millions 6,000 $5,400 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.
Value of Construction 2007-2017 $ Millions 20,000 18,000 $17.9 B 16,000 14,000 12,000 Nonbuilding 10,000 8,000 6,000 Nonresidential 4,000 2,000 0 Residential 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Construction Employment, 2007-2017 Thousands 180 160 166 140 120 100 80 60 40 Photo Courtesy of Breckenridge Brewery. 20 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Natural Resources and Mining
WTI Oil Price 2006-2016 Dollars per Barrel 160.0 140.0 June 3, 2008: $145.31 120.0 100.0 December 2, 2014: $66.99 80.0 60.0 Average 2006-2016 40.0 20.0 December 2, 2015: $39.93 December 2, 2016: $51.61 0.0 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: EIA, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel).
Value of Natural Resources $ Millions $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $13.3 Coal Minerals CO2 Natural Gas Crude Oil $0 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Crude Oil Production 2007-2017 Largest Producers 1. Texas 2. North Dakota 3. California 4. Alaska 5. Oklahoma 6. New Mexico 7. Colorado 8. Wyoming 9. Louisiana 10. Kansas Millions of Barrels 140 120 100 80 60 109.1 40 20 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Natural Gas Production 2007-2017 Billions of Cubic Feet 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 1,641 Sixth-largest producing state Projected price higher due to expected colder temperatures Average residential gas prices in Colorado for 2016 were the 10 th lowest in the country Total production stagnant due to low prices 200 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Value of production to increase slightly Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Coal Production 2007-2017 Lowest production levels since the mid-1990s State ranking slipped to 10 th in 2016 Short Tons (Millions) 40 35 30 Government mandates for renewables limiting production Decreasing demand from TVA Power plants divesting from coal 25 20 15 10 5 0 12.0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Colorado O&G Severance Taxes Severance Taxes, 12-Mo. Rolling Sum $350 WTI, 12-Mo. Ave. $/Barrel $120 $300 $250 Severance Taxes (L Axis) WTI Spot Price (R Axis) $110 $100 $90 $200 $80 $150 $70 $100 $50 $60 $50 $40 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $30 Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB; Colorado Department of Revenue.
Renewables First renewable portfolio standard in the country Includes wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass 17.2% of net generation in 2015 Most of Colorado s renewable energy comes from wind resources Colorado ranks 10 th nationally for total megawatts installed for wind energy Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.
Natural Resources and Mining Workers Added, 2007-2017 Thousands 6 4 2 0-2 -0.2-4 -6-8 -10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Mesa County
Real Gross Domestic Product Grand Junction MSA Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Percentage Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-10% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Non-Ag Employment Grand Junction MSA Thousands 70.0 65.0 87 Months.. +3,800 jobs, +6.5% 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.
Non-Ag Employment Grand Junction MSA Year-over-Year Percent Change 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0 Labor Department expected revisions -10.0-15.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.
Mesa County Wages Annual Rate (4Q Rolling) $ Millions 2,800 2,600 2,400-117 M -4.6% 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Q2 2002 Q2 2003 Q2 2004 Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
Mesa County Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q) $ Millions 45,000 40,000 +2.9% 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Q2 2002 Q2 2004 Q2 2006 Q2 2008 Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Q2 2014 Q2 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
2015 Average Annual Wages Western Slope Colorado Dollars 60,000 Colorado Statewide 50,000 40,000 $41,378 30,000 20,000 10,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
Grand Junction Bank Deposits 1994-2016 Deposits, Millions $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 Percent Change (R-axis) Percent Change 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Deposits (L-axis) 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: FDIC, Deposit Market Share Report.
Grand Junction MSA Employment Change October 2016 Month over Month 1-Year 3-Year (CAGR) 5-Year (CAGR) 10-Year (CAGR) Total 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% Mining, Logging, and Construction 0.0% 3.1% 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% Manufacturing 3.3% 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% 1.3% Wholesale 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 2.6% 1.3% Retail 1.2% 1.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% Transportation and Utilities 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% Information 0.0% 14.3% 9.1% 5.6% 4.0% Financial Activities 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.0% 0.6% Professional and Business Services 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% Education and Health Services 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% Leisure and Hospitality 2.5% 4.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% Government 0.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Excludes expected revisions from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Boulder Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Greeley Fort Collins Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Colorado 11.4% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Percent Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q2 2006 Q2 2016 Boulder Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Greeley Fort Collins Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Colorado 3.0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.
Single Family v. Multifamily Permits Grand Junction MSA Permits 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Permit 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 0 2015 YTD 2016 YTD Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.
Residential Permits and Valuation Grand Junction MSA Permits 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 $ Millions 400 1,600 350 1,400 300 1,200 250 1,000 400 350 300 250 800 200 800 200 600 150 600 150 400 100 400 100 200 50 200 50 0 0 0 2015 YTD 2016 YTD 0 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.
Drilling Permits by County 2016 YTD Permits 2,000 1,800 1,600 PROWERS GARFIELD LA PLATA ADAMS JACKSON RIO BLANCO MORGAN OTERO MOFFAT GUNNISON ARAPAHOE LARIMER WASHINGTON ARCHULETA DOLORES LINCOLN FREMONT KIT CARSON LOGAN MONTEZUMA WELD 1,400 1,200 Weld and Garfield = 84.0% Western Slope = 33.6% Mesa County = 0% 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: COGCC.
Drilling Permits by County 1989-2016 YTD October 1st 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Rest of Colorado Western Slope Share 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 YTD Source: COGCC. 0%
Thank You
Colorado Ranking Among Other States Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth 4 3 5 11 Employment Growth 6 5 3 4 Population Growth 2 3 3 4 Personal Income Growth 23 1 2 7 PCPI Growth 43 1 2 30 PCPI 13 18 22 13 Average Annual Pay % Growth 28 26 18 23 Average Annual Pay 12 13 12 10 Unemployment Rate 9 18 29 18 Labor Force % Growth 6 11 7 4 FHFA Home Price Index 3 2 4 3 Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/16), U.S. Census Bureau (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q3 2016), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.