FREE REPORT HOW TO WIN WITH FOOTBALL ACCUMULATORS BY PAUL RUFFY - MATCHDAYPROFITS.COM Paul Ruffy 2017 Cautionary Note/Disclaimer: You are solely responsible for any money that you bet, win or lose. No reproduction or distribution of this report is permitted without the prior consent of the author
Contents Contents 2 Introduction 3 Turning the tables 3 Acca Insurance - Using or Abusing? 4 Snubbed and Gubbed 5 The Bankers and Base Method 6 Can you replicate this performance? 8 Best 5+ Acca Insurance - Online Bookmakers 11 Best 5+ Acca Insurance - High Street Bookmakers 13 2
Introduction I ve called this report How to win with Football Accumulators yet I could have perhaps called it how to win with five-folds, as that s what I look to do for the most part. I ll get on to that in the next section but let s just briefly cover the basics of what an Accumulator is. An Accumulator is essentially a series of bets where the odds of each leg (or bet) are multiplied to work out the overall odds for all the legs winning. When you place any multiple (double/treble/acca etc) the returns are the same as if you d backed each selection as a single but carried all your returns over and put them on the next selection in turn. So it s like someone on a winning run reinvesting everything straight back on the next bet. Bookmakers love them. But not just because they encourage a somewhat reckless approach to betting. They also compound poor value prices, or in other words the bookmakers edge. If you re going to get involved betting on accumulators or multiples of any kind you should understand this up front. You re playing the bookmakers at the game they want you to play. Turning the tables As you may know already, bookmakers offering refunds if one leg of your acca lets you down has become quite a big thing over the last couple of years (they call it Acca Insurance ). If you think about it from the bookies point of view it makes great business sense - you re encouraging people to place the type of bets that make you the most profit. You re attracting the kind of punters that are hunting that big win that bet for an interest, and you re coming across as really generous giving punters money back if they are unlucky. They are looking for punters that will perhaps spend less time on their selections, place more bets, that won t read the terms and conditions, and that will often forget to even use any free bets they ve acquired before they expire. So that s the kind of punter you don t want to be, next I m going to explore what kind of punter you could be instead. 3
Acca Insurance - Using or Abusing? Well placing bets with Acca insurance is one of my favourite strategies right now - if used efficiently it can swing with the odds firmly in your favour. The introduction of such refund offers has seen various matched betting sites developing software based approaches that are designed to take maximal advantage of these refund offers. I've had a look at these approaches which do have merit, but I'm not going to make them my main strategy - Why? Well not necessarily because they are bad, or that they don't work, but because I value my bookmaker accounts, and my time. Now I'm not saying you cannot use these methods to make money. - They do all have the potential to make you money because there is certainly value on offer within these offers. However what I will say is their use has a two major negative effects. You see they are using a mathematical model to work out the "value" in real money terms of a freebet refund, this makes sense. But it relies on betting right up to the maximum stakes of the offer, normally very short odds, often on minor teams/matches, and often they need matches to be played sequentially i.e not at the same time or with any overlap. In addition to all of that, if you're doing it to make a decent profit you'll need to do a lot of them and probably won't have time to do much other betting, certainly on those accounts. Now think about this for a moment - how easy do you think it would be for a bookmaker to spot this activity on your account, given there'll be four or five markers that will highlight your activity? Yes, very easy. Do they want customers that simply use calculators to extract repeated small profits from them time and time again, draining the bottom line profits? No, of course not. Who would? 4
Aside from time concerns and the likelihood of being banned from the offers, there s also the concern of having a software program selecting matches for you. You could end up with a run of unexplained losses with no-one to offer up an explanation and a program that insists further inclusion of false favourites that scupper profits. Snubbed and Gubbed I have a lot of empathy with punters who get "gubbed", restricted and/or have bets refused. I've found myself in the same boat often enough. But really as punters we must look at ourselves and realise we are our own worst enemy here. Punters think they're being clever, but in the long run one could argue that using solely matched betting tactics and exploiting refund offers is perhaps doing nothing more than scoring an own goal. I've seen bookmakers change their acca terms, and a few remove the refund offers altogether. And it's interesting to note Sportingbet have restricted their new refund offer to matches that are being played on one day only. So the end result of all this is that accounts get closed (or gubbed) and/or terms get changed. But is there another way? Well let s consider the downsides of the "scalping" type approach: Large bank/stakes required Lots of lays to place Lots of bet management Time consuming Not exactly fun! Potential to go wrong with prices and/or incorrect lays No analysis of teams Highly likely to result in accounts getting banned from the Acca offers. 5
What if you could use the Acca insurance promotions in a better way that: Had a ROI of over 40%+ Required fewer bets Didn t require maximum stakes to make decent profits Wasn t as likely to get you branded a "bonus abuser" and get you gubbed Had options on which bookie to use/not limited to one firm per bet Was actually a huge amount to fun to operate Enabled you to bet with cash, in betting shops Well I've found that all of the above is possible and what I'm going to share with you now is exactly how I attack the Acca insurance offers, why it offers you a big edge and how you can stay under the radar whilst doing it. The Bankers and Base Method This is my own method which I've developed over the last 2 seasons which has proven to be very profitable. The objective here is similar to the that of the software based approaches, however it is not the same. My objective is to land winning five folds, not to land a free bet. This is a very important distinction and one that kind of generically sets us apart. Ensuring that we come across as punters that are playing the game in the spirit of things. So the objective is to land winning five folds (or sometimes 6 folds). Now realistically this isn't going to be possible all the time, but I try to ensure that I've at least a very good chance of getting four from five, so that when I do lose the Acca I'm at least getting a free bet back. So how to get at least four winners very regularly and also land decent price winners when you do win? This is where the "Bankers and Base selections" come in. What I do here is try and find three selections which are going to be my "bankers". These will typically be in the 1.10 to 1.33 odds range. 6
I'll then find my "base" selections. These are going to be at bigger prices, typically in the 1.5 to 2.5 range and they are predominantly what ensures that when the Acca wins, it's at a decent price. If the accumulator can be built up starting with 3 "banker"selections that look rock solid, on paper at least, then it allows a little more adventure on the remaining two. The remaining two "base"selections are still quite solid favourites, but maybe not so obvious. I want to avoid picking the 5 shortest teams on the coupon in any case as this will not result in any kind of price. So, by including three real short ones, in the 1.10 to 1.33 odds bracket, and then supplementing these with another two selections in the 1.50 to 2.5 odds range - I m virtually turning this five fold into a double - With money back if one of the two doesn t win! I can normally put together an accumulator with a half-decent chance of returning odds of around 3-1 to 8-1. And a solid chance of getting four from five at least. Using this approach I've been able to achieve the following results Matchdayprofits 2015-2017 Acca Stats Bets Won Lost Push (refund) SR P/L ROI With Acca Insurance Without Acca Insurance 240 59 89 92 63% +133.09 55% 240 59 181-25% +73.29 31% The above table represents actual profits from bets struck using Acca insurance offers. I've used a standard calculation assuming that 65% of the freebets value is returned. (Those that know how to effectively "cash out" freebets will know this is actually very conservative so in reality the profits using the Acca insurance were better.) I've also used the same prices for calculating the "without Acca insurance" profit figures, this also is perhaps understating the profits somewhat, as in reality if you weren't bothered about acca insurance, or couldn't get it due to accounts being "gubbed", you'd 7
still likely be able to shop around for best prices which would often mean higher combined odds that what I've actually achieved with the Acca insurance bets. Can you replicate this performance? Now the caveat. I'm sure you're aware that simply picking teams in certain odds ranges will not by itself provide you with a winning football betting system. Unlike the software I never simply use the odds on offer to judge the chances of a team winning. In fact my approach has become more and more refined so that I'm analysing a number of matches across the leagues and cherry picking what I think represent the best value prices about teams winning. I might have 10 or more potential "banker" selections and I'll whittle those down to the very best ones based on stats, form, opinion, price and other factors. I'll then adopt a similar approach with the "base" selections. All of my selections no matter what price they are will have been thoroughly researched. This doesn't take a long time necessarily, but the notion of just assuming teams will win because of the reputation or price has to be cast aside. Here's my pointers for picking winning selections: Bankers: Look for home teams with very solid records and form, playing lowly ranked sides that don t have anything suggesting an upset, such as having avoided defeat when away at other big sides already in the current season. There s often no reason to be overly clever with these! Look for reasons why they might slip up, ie distractions, injuries etc that might not be obvious. (Champions League next week? Injuries/suspensions to key players?) Is the match a Derby or have any historical reasons to avoid including the H2H record? Take a close look at their opponents and avoid in form teams Winning form is more reliable than losing form 8
Base selections Consider strong away sides that are facing weaker opposition Consider the top clubs at home even against decent opposition Look at head to head form Pay close attention to recent form Look at shot stats and possession stats Read other opinions to back up your own Look for value above all else Variants on this Method All Short Prices Don t get too hung up on prices. Any price can be a value price. You will often find that your acca selections do not fit my ideal of three really short prices and two bigger selections. You may have two in the region of 1.25 and below then one at 1.40 and another two at 1.44 and 1.50, that five fold will still pay around 7/2. The most important thing is your confidence in all five selections and the prices being good. Value Draw The Draw is one of the most overlooked bets in football. If you can find just one strong Draw selection you can go with four banker selections and still achieve a decent price. Almost any five fold including a draw with work out over 4/1 and for the most part much bigger odds. Your strike rate will be lower but if you find draws regularly enough this won t matter. Draw indicators: Head to Head Form Recent Form Well matched sides/closeness in the table Sides looking to avoid defeat above all else Matches with a high likelihood of being low scoring (see below) In particular it s worth remembering the relationship between low scoring matches and draws. There are just 6 possible scorelines that can occur in games with under 2.5 goals; 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2. You ll note that 2 of the 6 are draws, or a third - that s a higher 9
proportion than of all matches in most leagues. Or to put it another way The fewer goals there are likely to be in a match the more likely it becomes that both teams will score the same number. So I hope you'll have a go at this approach, If I can make it work you can too. That said if you want to shortcut to success with this you can back the exact same Accas that I'm backing by joining my Matchdayprofits membership site. It's inexpensive to join and comes with a 90 day money back guarantee. Check out my offer here: http://matchdayprofits.com/live Thanks and Good Luck! Ps. I welcome any comments, questions or feedback at: http://matchdayprofits.com/contact/ 10
Best 5+ Acca Insurance - Online Bookmakers What follows are the bookmakers that currently offer the most generous or useful 5+ Acca insurance for my bets. These terms are liable to change and have changed over the last 12 months, so please always remember to check the terms yourself regularly to avoid being caught out. Coral: (to be updated/checked at start of season) Key terms: 5 folds+. Any matches, Min combined odds 3/1 (4.0)+, 25 Max refund, min bet 2. Freebet only valid 4 days and must be used on football. Corals offer is fairly useful, the main thing to note being the min odds stipulation. They don t tend to offer the best prices however so I only use them occasionally. 11
Ladbrokes: Key Terms: Any odds, 25 max, limited to major leagues, excludes Portuguese League, worth checking the terms if any doubt. The Ladbrokes offer is one of the cornerstones of this strategy for me, as they ve offered favourable terms for some time now. The only annoyance is that their offer is limited to certain leagues/competitions. The big European leagues are included with the notable exception of the Portuguese Primeira Liga. William Hill (correct as of 29/7/17): Key Terms: Any Sport, 50 Max, any odds as long as matches are in the 20 leagues/competitions listed. In December 2016 Hills changed their terms and are now one of the best places for this approach. They do have a min odds stipulation of 1.2 however this is not relevant for us as all of the major football leagues (20 in total) are EXCLUDED from this rule. As they often have very competitive prices this is very useful. Terms need to checked at start of season. 12
BetVictor: Key Terms: Opt in required. Match Betting, or Both Teams To Score market, with cumulative odds of 4/1 (5.0). Maximum of / 10 to use on another acca (paid in bonus funds). This offer, coupled with BetVictors Best Price Guarantee on 5 folds, where they will match the combined best odds from: Bet365, BetFair (Sportsbook), BetFred, Coral, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, SkyBet or William Hill, makes this an offer of note. It s one I ve been targeting more often towards the end of the 16/17 season. There s no minimum odds per selection and the 5.0 is fairly easy to achieve. The free bet does have to be used on another Acca, however as we re constantly looking for Accas anyhow, over the long term we should be able to land enough winners with the freebets to at least get our money back. Best 5+ Acca Insurance - High Street Bookmakers Sometimes people can t bet online for whatever reason. And also sometimes you might be worried that your bet will stand out and risk getting your account restricted. Well there are options to use this approach in the high street, effectively betting anonymously is cash. I should add that I m not including offers that involve registering and using a member card or the like - those schemes just give the bookmakers another chance to monitor your activity. 13
Both Ladbrokes and Paddypower offer Acca Insurance in their shops. Paddys have unfortunately recently changed their terms from no minimum odds to a restrictive 1.33. Seemingly in a reaction to people perhaps getting a tad too enthusiastic with the offer. They have left the door ajar with their new terms however as they now offer the Acca Insurance on their betting terminals in shop on any football markets. This means you can include lower risk bets such as double chance, draw no bet, clean sheet, no clean sheet, etc etc etc. This is a promotion I ll be taking a close look at this season. There s also no min odds stipulation on the Acca Insurance coupon with Ladbrokes and the refund is upto 25. The downside is that you ll often find prices are worse on these coupons than online and you ll also find that the selection of matches is limited (often very limited!). So in summary they are worth looking at but not worth forcing a bet if there s not one there. Please note I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the stated bookmaker terms. You should always check terms before betting under an offer or promotion. Be aware that this is a moving target as terms are changed regularly. 14