Here We Grow Again A Regional Perspective Where will they live? David A. Cobb dcobb@metrostudy.com February 20, 2015
After 7 Years of Famine, Nearly 1 Million Housing Starts Starts History and Forecast Single Family Multi-family 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Metrostudy National Housing Market 2
Home Closings 8,000,000 7,000,000 18% 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Resales Are at Fairly Strong Levels, While REO Sales Are Diminishing and New Homes Finally Ticking Up National Annualized Home Closings by Type, 2006-September 2014 Charlotte County New Home Market Share: 3% Lee County: 9% Collier County: 11% Tax Credit Expiration Activity has Levelled Off This Year, New Sale Share Stabilized but below 10% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% New Home Share 8% Source: Metrostudy Regular Resale REO Sale New Sale New Sale Share National Housing Market 3
In the New Home Market, Lower Priced Homes Have Diminished in Share New Closings by Price Distribution, Nationwide, 2005-2014 35% over $350K 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% Source: Metrostudy $0k-$150k $150k-$350k $350k-$650k $650k+ National Housing Market 4
And Homes Are Getting Larger 16000 Single Family Home Sizes and Personal Income Personal Income Median Sq Ft Average Sq Ft Recession 2900 14000 12000 2700 2500 Billions 10000 8000 2300 2100 6000 1900 4000 1700 2000 1500 National Housing Market 5
Big Builders Continue to Gain Share National Housing Market 6
Apartments Vacancies Should Remain Low As Demand Is Fueled by Millennials Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, October 2013 National Housing Market 7
Millennials and the Market 80M strong Millennial Homeownership rate: 30% Boomer homeownership: 70-80% Will behave like their Boomer parents, just 5 10 years later Will become a significant factor in the housing market in 3 5 years Then likely to dominate the housing market for the next 25+ years National Housing Market 8
Boomerang Buyers Source: U.S. Census, realtytrac.com National Housing Market 9
An Eight Year Wave of Buyers National Housing Market 10
National Housing Market 11
Growth Will Be Most Reliable in Healthier Markets Source: Metrostudy Home Building Outlook Report National Housing Market 12
Top 10 Healthiest Markets 1. The Villages, FL 2. Provo-Orem, UT 3. Fort Collins, CO 4. Austin-Round Rock, TX 5. Salt Lake City, UT 6. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL 7. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL 8. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 9. Greeley, CO 10.St. George, UT Source: Metrostudy Home Building Outlook Report National Housing Market 13
Fundamentals Are Bright to Maintain Slow But Steady Momentum, and Grow in 2015 Baby Boomers are not getting younger yet feel more confident to invest in new homes and/or discretionary home improvements Consumer confidence and sense of financial stability are more important now than jobs, unemployment, or GDP to remodeling and replacement markets Postponed remodeling and replacement projects are coming due just as home equity increases (and stock portfolios) Housing demand has shifted to higher price points, and correspondingly consumers are wanting better and bigger. But for volumes to increase, lower price options need to come back National Housing Market 14
721,000 Single Family Starts Forecasted for 2015, Still Below 50+ Year Average 2,000 Single Family Starts History and Forecast 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 53 year average 1.035 million Forecast 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 Source: Commerce Department; Metrostudy Forecast 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 National Housing Market 15
Multi-Family Recovery Still Below Historical Standards - Room for Growth 1,200 Multi-Family Starts History and Forecast 1,000 800 600 400 53 Year Average: 421,000 Forecast 200 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Commerce Department; Metrostudy Forecast National Housing Market 16
2015 Forecast 1,080,000 SF/MF starts o Up 10% y-o-y o Includes rentals 504,000 new home sales o Excludes owner builds 11,133,698 REMODELS National Housing Market 17
Southwest Florida Region February 20, 2015 David Cobb dcobb@metrostudy.com
Southwest Florida Charlotte Lee Collier 19
Charlotte County 20
Charlotte Demographics 21
Charlotte Demographics 22
Charlotte Demographics 23
Charlotte Single Family Starts & Closings since 2001 Starts Avg: 682 Current: 260 (38%) 24
Over 250,000 platted lots 150,000+ are vacant 25
Lots of lots!!! Rotunda 13,389 Port Charlotte 100,000+ Punta Gorda Isles 1,304 South Gulf Cove 10,806 Burnt Store/Tern Bay 2,986 At current starts pace.577 Years Supply 26
But there s more!!! Rotunda 236 Tern Bay 1,085 Burnt Store 261 Tucker s Grade 999 Babcock Ranch 14,870 Charlotte Future Lot Supply: 18,531 An additional 71 Years Supply 27
Babcock Ranch coming soon 28
The City of Babcock Ranch World s most sustainable city 74,000 acres of preserve 17,000 acres to be developed Solar powered city 75 mw array, largest in the world 5M square feet of commercial 20,000 permanent jobs IBM Smart City 45,000 residents, over 17,000 homes 29
Lee County 30
Lee Demographics 31
Lee Demographics 32
Lee Demographics 33
Lee Single Family Starts & Closings since 2001 Starts Avg: 2,616 Current: 2,095 (80%) 34
Built-out Master-planned Communities since 2000 35
Active Master-planned Communities Vacant, Developed Lots: 6,850 39 Months Supply A Location Supply: 2,197 (32%) 36
Single Family Future Master Planned Communities 200+ lots Total Future Lots: 32,578 a 15 years supply at current starts pace 37
Lee Future Lots 200+ Eastwood Village *Bonita Bay Group 2500 Babcock Ranch *Syd Kitson 1950 Bonita National *Lennar Homes 1684 Heritage Creek RPD * 1275 Northbrook * 1255 Savanna Lakes *Lennar Homes 1200 Center Place * 1000 Section 10 Lehigh/MF * 990 Lindsford *D.R. Horton Homes 979 Entrada Estates *Entrada Estates LLC 942 Oak Creek/SF *Americrest Homes 855 Section 10 Lehigh/SF * 760 Copperhead G & CC/Future *EH Building Group LLC 717 Buckingham Villages (TH) * 631 Corkscrew Crossings *Newport Bay 586 Sloane's Gate * 561 Estero on the River MPD * 530 Sunset Falls/TH *Watermen Dev Group 523 Heritage Isles *Lennar Homes 440 38
Lehigh Acres Master-planned communities? 39
Cape Coral 40
Lehigh Acres 41
Lee Condo Starts & Closings since 2001 Annual Starts Avg: 1,890 Current Pace: 608 (32%) 42
Future Condo locations 43
Typical Condo product Source: DR Horton 44
Collier County 45
Collier Demographics 46
Collier Demographics 47
Collier Demographics 48
Collier Single Family Starts & Closings since 2001 Starts Avg: 1,694 Current: 1,988 (117%) 49
Collier Built-out Master-planned Communities since 2000 50
Collier Active Communities Vacant, Developed Lots: 4,531 28 Months Supply 51
Collier Single Family Future Lots Map 200+ Big Cypress 9,000 Ave Maria 9,000 Total Future Lots: 33,166 a 16 years supply at current starts pace 52
Collier Single Family Future Lots 200+ Subdivision Developer Future Lot Count Big Cypress *Collier Enterprises 9000 Ave Maria/Future *Del Webb 6558 Esplanade Hacienda Lakes *Taylor Morrison 1608 Parklands Development/MF *Parklands Assocoates I, 1480 LLP - owner Ave Maria/Del Webb/Future *Del Webb 1315 Fiddler's Creek/Oyster Harbor *Taylor Morrison 1200 Naples Reserve *SFI Naples Reserve, LLC 1154 Ave Maria/Maple Ridge/Future *CC Devco 790 Greyhawk at Golf Club of the *Pulte 750 Everglades Winding Cypress/Futures *DiVosta Homes 650 Valencia G & CC/Futures *D.R. Horton Homes 363 San Marino * 361 Artesia/Futures * 340 Falls of Portofino (TH) *Prime Homebuilders 250 LaMorada *WCI Communities 224 Orange Blossom Grove * 223 Marbella Isles *GL Homes 200 Marbella Isles *GL Homes 161 Marbella Isles *GL Homes 105 Raffia Preserve * 82 53
Golden Gate/GG Estates 54
Collier Condo Starts & Closings since 2001 Annual Starts Avg: 1,224 Current Pace: 490 (40%) 55
Collier Condo Future Units Map 56
Collier Condo Future Units Subdivision Developer Future Unit Count Kalea Bay *Signature Communities 582 Taormina Reserve * 528 Rockedge RPUD *Woodfield Builders LLC 400 Hammock Bay G & CC/Ilaria *WCI Communities 116 Solstice RPUD *Cirrus Pointe Partners 108 LLC Della Rosa *PAGE DEVELOPMENT 107 CORP OF SW FLORIDA INC Naples Square *Ronto Group 77 Naples Square *Ronto Group 77 Naples Square *Ronto Group 77 Pelican Bay/Cap D'Antibes *Gulf Bay Group of 76 Companies Pelican Bay/Cap D'Antibes *Gulf Bay Group of 76 Companies Hamilton Greens *Zuckerman Group 72 Windstar/Regatta Landing * 64 Port of the Islands/Retreat del Sol *PORT OF THE ISLANDS PROPERTIES LLC 50 Port of the Islands/Retreat del Sol *PORT OF THE ISLANDS PROPERTIES LLC 30 The Residences at Mercato *Lutgert Companies 19 Talis Park/Residences at Vyne House *Kitson & Partners 14 57
and now you know!
Thank you!