North America Light Vehicle Outlook October 3, 2012 Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America IHS Automotive
Presentation Outline Global Vehicle Sales Forecasts North America Overview United States Mexico Summary Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
External Shocks to The Global Auto Industry Sub-Prime Crisis Bear Sterns Oil Hits $147 Lehman Bros Confidence Slumps Liquidity Freeze Event or Shock Global Great Recession Banking System is Stabilized Greek Debt Crisis kicks off Economies Rebound (inventory) Inflation Surges in Emerging Markets Mature Economies Growth Fades Libya, Arab Spring, Oil Surges Japan Disasters US Debt Ceiling Debacle Downgraded Markets Drag Italy Into PIIGS Class Is Greece Confidence Europe's Slumps Lehman Bros? Successive EU Summits -no silver bullet Iran embargo RECOVERY Re-ignites Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Policy Response World Auto Sales Track Interest Rates Slashed, QEI TARP China Stimulates Banks Recapitalised, Nationalised, Guaranteed Fiscal Pump Priming Auto Bail Outs, Financing and Restructuring Consumer De-leveraging Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. Auto Incentives Europe, China, Brazil, Japan, US India Private Sector Debt => Sovereign Debt Auto Incentives Phasing out QEII Cooling Measures In EM Auto Incentives Ending Japan Supply Chain Crisis Fiscal Tightening Accelerated ECB (LTRO) Consumer De-leveraging Still There ESM Spluttering Along Greece Exits Spain & Italy Defaults, Eurozone Breaks Apart Global Financial Crisis II (Early Vortex)?
Millions 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Global Light Vehicle Sales % CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 4.3% 4.7% 3.1% 6.7% 5.9%. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 BASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Light Vehicle Sales: Top Ten Manufacturers Millions Units/MM Global players, look for more cooperation among OEMS in the future 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Volkswagen-Porsche Toyota General Motors Renault-Nissan Hyundai-Kia Ford Fiat Auto-Chrysler Honda PSA Suzuki Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5 2019 2020
Light Vehicle Sales: Greater China the New Colossus Millions 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Sales struggling a bit this year, soft landing is key to long-term growth % CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 3.6% 7.2% 8.7% 10.7% 8.9% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Light Vehicle Sales: Western Europe Millions Units/MM 17 16 15 14 13 12 Fiscal austerity will limit long term recovery % CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE -0.3% -8.8% -2.0% 5.5% 5.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7 2020
Light Vehicle Sales: Western Europe Millions 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Southern Tier takes big hit, Northern Tier never regains scrappage peak 1.0 0.5 0.0 % CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 France -1.4% -10.5% -4.2% 5.9% 2.7% Germany 9.7% -2.2% -0.1% 4.1% 1.7% Italy -9.9% -21.5% -1.0% 7.6% 11.8% Spain -17.0% -16.7% -2.4% 13.1% 24.3% UK -2.3% 1.1% -0.8% 5.6% 5.6% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Light Vehicle Sales: Eastern and Central Europe Units/MM Millions 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Russia drives short term gains, other EE and CE sustain long term growth % CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 23.8% 3.3% 3.0% 9.3% 6.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9 2020
Millions 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Light Vehicle Sales: North America US leads recovery, but Canada and Mexico having a strong 2012 % CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 9.3% 10.3% 3.8% 5.2% 3.7% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. BASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
Light Vehicle Sales: South America Millions 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 % CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 BASE 9.3% 5.5% -0.6% 6.1% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 BASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Auto Industry, Balancing the Old World and New Frontiers BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) G7 (Germany, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, Russia, Canada, USA) Triad Markets (West Europe, Japan, North America) VISTA (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina) GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey) CEMENT (Countries in Emerging Markets Excluded by New Terminology) CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey) N-11 (Next 11 - Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam). Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
Country Vehicle Penetration Scatterplot Reveals Strong GDP-Vehicle Need Relationship Vehicles In Use Per 1000 People Poland Czech Rep Hungary Russia Mexico Thailand Chile Turkey Brazil Slovenia Taiwan Spain S Korea Italy Japan US Australia Canada France UK Germany Sweden Linear Trend: Each $1000 increase in wealth leads to 15 more vehicles per 1000 people. China India GDP Per Capita (in thousand 2005 US$) Source: CY2010 Data, IHS Data Insights Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
Global Light Vehicle Developments International Passenger Car Saturation Model 600 500 400 Car density per 1000 pop 300 200 100 0-100 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 GDP Per Capita PPP in USD (2005) y = -0.0000003749x 2 + 0.0272263164x - 76.5859828870 R 2 = 0.7429749568 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
Global Light Vehicle Developments Global Sales Forecast 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 Beyond BRIC BRIC Mature 78.7 million 105.5 million Key Information: In 2000 about 80% of global light vehicle demand came out of mature markets. In 2012 this already decreased to 48% and by 2019 it will have reached 40%. Mature markets are not forecast to return to pre crisis 2007 volumes again. The general economic situation in various countries, demographic changes, increasing costs of ownership and different trend perceptions are only a few reasons for this development. China itself will contribute around 28% of global demand by 2019. Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
Millions Old Worlds and New Frontiers Units/MM 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 Emerging markets no longer just about growth, but size and stability BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China TRIAD = North America, Western Europe, Japan 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TRIAD BRICS ROW ROW = Rest of World ROW Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Africa are the volume leaders 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
Global Light Vehicle Developments The Next Wave of Growth Markets Population in Mio. 2011 2019 GDP/Capita in Real US-$ Population in Mio. GDP/Capita in Real US-$ Population Change 2011 vs. 2019 GDP/Capita Change BRIC China 1,347 3,142 1,385 5,547 3% 77% BRIC India 1,241 1,065 1,372 1,802 10% 69% BRIC Brazil 197 5,729 209 7,486 6% 31% BRIC Russia 143 6,872 141 8,849-1% 29% Beyond BRIC Beyond BRIC Beyond BRIC 1 Indonesia 242 1,660 261 2,419 7% 46% 2 Mexico 115 8,378 125 10,455 9% 25% 3 Philippines 95 1,434 108 1,834 14% 28% 4 Turkey 74 8,325 80 10,528 9% 26% 5 Thailand 70 3,024 72 4,112 3% 36% 6 South Africa 50 5,969 52 7,896 4% 32% 7 Colombia 47 4,130 52 5,403 11% 31% 8 Argentina 41 6,773 44 8,685 7% 28% 9 Malaysia 29 5,735 33 7,979 13% 39% 10 Chile 17 8,568 18 11,490 6% 34% Source: IHS August 2012 Forecast Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17
Capacity Shifts 2012 vs. 2019 Straight Time Capacity Change (Millions) 14 2012-2019 Change 2012 Utilization 2019 Utilization 12 10 8 6 4 2 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 2019 Capacity Utilization % 0 Brazil China India Russia ROW 40% Straight-Time Capacity = Core shift set up 1, 2 or 3 shifts Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Capacity Expansion 2012-2019 Brazil Russia Fiat VW Ren/Niss Honda Chery Jianghuai GM PSA Mitsubishi Ford VW Fiat GAZ Group PSA Ren/Niss 0 100 200 300 400 Straight-time Capacity - Thousands 0 30 60 90 120 Straight-time Capacity - Thousands Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
Capacity Expansion 2012-2019 India China Maruti /Suzuki Mahindra Bajaj Auto Ford GM VW Hyundai Tata Ren/Niss Honda *S-VW Changan- Ford-Mazda Chery **S-GM SAIC- GM-Wuling Great Wall Dongfeng -Yueda-Kia FAW-VW Dongfeng Geely 0 250 500 750 1000 Straight-time Capacity Thousands 0 300 600 900 1200 Straight-time Capacity - Thousands * S-VW = Shanghai VW, ** S-GM = Shanghai GM Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
Worldwide Trends Growing personal wealth is increasing the motorization rate in developing markets Air quality (smog, health effects) issues are spreading throughout the world as motorization increases, especially in cities Climate change (decarbonization) is becoming a global issue There is a growing sense of need for energy independence: some countries are turning inward to maximize the use of their own resources Demand for petroleum is increasing globally while lower-cost resources are largely in politically sensitive regions The need to import energy creates a difficult balance of trade for many countries Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
Global CO 2 Legislation Trend The countries which plan to introduce Fuel Economy regulation by 2020 Have already introduced Will introduce Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Technology Islands start to merge Legislative Convergence CO 2 (g/km) Normalized to NEDC Test Cycle 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 US (FTP75/US06) Europe (NEDC) Japan (JC08) China (NEDC) S.Korea (NEDC) 60 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Global CO 2 target number range now starting to converge Global non-co 2 emission norms continue to tighten and converge PGM loading intensifies globally as last few regions adopt Euro3> Standards coming in other countries as well Likely to follow European standards Possible global standardization of test procedures? Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
Emission Summary: Most Countries Will Follow European Standards With Some Lag Largely follows US standards on a sales-weighted bubble basis Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
Test Cycles The decisive but divisive factor! JC08 Speed (km/h) 140 120 100 80 60 40 City Mode NEDC Highway Mode 20 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 Time (sec) FTP75/US06 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) Characteristics of WLTC Ver.4 WLTC ver. 4 150 5.0 140 WLTC ver.4 Acceleration 4.0 Reflection of validation1 Set minimum speed @ 10km/h Eliminate the micro transient portions Set maximum acceleration @ 95 percent tile Vehicle speed in km/h 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0-6.0-7.0 Acceleration in m/s² 20-8.0 10-9.0 Cum. Frequency of Vehicle speed Cum. Frequency of V * a_positive 0-10.0 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 Time in s 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Cum. frequency 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 mid, WW database mid, WLTC v2 Cum. frequency 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 mid, WW database mid, WLTC v2 Apply supplemental methodology 0.2 mid, WLTC v3 mid, WLTC v3 1121 0.2 mid, WLTC v3 mid, WLTC v3 1121 0.1 mid, WLTC v4 0.1 mid, WLTC v4 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Speed (km/h) 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 v*a_pos in m²/s³ http://www.unece.org/trans/main/wp29/wp29wgs/wp29grpe/wltp_dhc11.html Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Intention to Buy New Vehicle in 6 Months 5.0 (Percent Yes) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 6 Month Moving Average Actual Conference Board Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
Pure Raw Material Cost in a Car Debt Crisis Lowers Input Costs 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 Steel Aluminium Plastic Resins Rubber Glass Iron Total Raw Material Cost in a Car US Vehicle @ 3500 Lbs In $ Latest Data Point July 2012 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 European Car @ 2700 Lbs in Euro 200 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Total Cost (Euro) Total Cost (US$) (Excludes Fuel, Processing and Transportation costs) Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
New Auto Loans Delinquency Rates 4.0 (% - Accounts past due 30 days or more) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Direct (Bank) Loans Months Indirect (Dealer) Loans Source: American Bankers Association Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
New Auto Loan Application Approvals 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Unweighted Average of Prime, Near and Subprime Source: CNW Marketing Months Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
New Auto Loan Rates Commercial Banks (Percent) 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Quarters Federal Reserve Board Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
Manufacturer Incentives $7,000 $6,500 $6,000 $5,500 $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Jan- 04 Jul- 04 Jan- 05 Jul- 05 Jan- 06 Jul- 06 Jan- 07 Jul- 07 Jan- 08 Jul- 08 Jan- 09 Jul- 09 Jan- 10 Jul- 10 Jan- 11 Jul- 11 Jan- 12 Jul- 12 Source: CNW Marketing GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Nissan Honda Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32
Residual Value Index 100% 90% (Index = Lease contract residual value versus CNW estimate of residual at end of lease term) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 GM Ford Chrysler Industry Toyota Honda Nissan Source: CNW Marketing Months Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
US Light Vehicle Sales: Lease Penetration 29% (Share) 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: CNW Marketing Leases by Month Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
US Light Vehicle Inventory: Units 4,500 (Units in thousands) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Months Seasonally Adjusted Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
US Light Vehicle Inventory: Days Supply 120 (Days Supply) 110 100 90 Light Trucks 80 70 60 50 40 Cars 30 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Months Seasonally Adjusted Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36
US Light Vehicle Sales, SAAR (Units in millions) 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 SUVL Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37
US Light Vehicle Sales 18 (Units in millions) 18 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 8 September 2012 Forecast July 2011 Forecast Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38
US Sales: Major Manufacturers Market Share 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 GM FORD CHRYSLER/FIAT TOYOTA HONDA NISSAN HYUNDAI/KIA Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39
US Sales: By Car Segment (54%) 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% (Light Vehicle Share) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Compact Full-Size Micro + Mini Mid-Size Sports Subcompact Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40
US Sales: By Light Truck Segment (46%) 30% (Light Vehicle Share) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 CUV MPV PUP SUV VAN Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 41
North America - Light Vehicle Production Millions 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 (Units in millions) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 ` (Share of NA Prod.) 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Volume - L Canada- R Mexico - R Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 42
North America - Light Vehicles Exports Millions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (Units/) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Volume - L Change - % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 43
NA Export Sales: By Region of Destination 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Asia Europe Middle East/Africa South America Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 44
US Auto Market Overview Pent Up demand is driving the auto recovery. Sales have exceeded expectations, despite a sluggish economy. There has been a heavy dose of fleet activity in the first half of the year. Sales have improved, as Japanese cars return to the showrooms. High gasoline prices actually helped sales (trade-in gas guzzlers) Incentive spending has risen modestly, as inventories rebuild, but there is more pricing discipline today. There is an over-supply of 2012 models; inventories are getting heavy. Auto credit quality is excellent and availability is almost back to normal. The used car and truck market is the healthiest it has been in years. Cost pressures are easing and industry profits in North America are good. Bottom Line A weak economy will hurt the release of pent up demand, slowing not derailing, the auto market recovery Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Selling Rate - SAAR 1.3 (Units in Millions) 1.2 1.1 Monthly 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Annual Average 0.3 1/1/1997 1/1/1999 1/1/2001 1/1/2003 1/1/2005 1/1/2007 1/1/2009 1/1/2011 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 46
Monthly Sales: Moving Average vs. Consumer Confidence 1200 Thousand Units Index 120 1100 110 1000 100 900 90 800 80 700 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 70 LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Confidence Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 47
Mexico:Light Vehicle Sales 1,500,000 1,400,000 Units Used car imports and credit availability limit growth 30% 1,300,000 20% 1,200,000 1,100,000 10% 1,000,000 0% 900,000-10% 800,000 700,000-20% 600,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Light Veh -L Annual Change -R -30% Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 48
Mexico: Market Share 100% Percentage 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nissan grows in coming years 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Others Suzuki Daimler BMW Mitsubishi Mazda Honda Toyota Chrysler Ford Volkswagen General Motors Renault/Nissan Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Mexico: Global Segmentation Millions 0.60 0.50 0.40 Units 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 A B C D E F HVAN 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 50
Mexico: Bodystyle Millions 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Units 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 51
Producing for Export Forecast at risk due to Brazil 4.5 Mexico Light Vehicle Production (millions of units) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 PROD Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 52
Mexico to Brazil ACE 55 Imports from Mexico [US$] Imports from Mexico [Units] Vehicle price per unit [US$] 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 947,500,00 1,260,900,000 2,070,000,000 1,450,000,000 1,560,000,000 1,640,000,000 60,138 76,748 121,745 93,500 100,000 104, 500 15,755 16,429 17,003 15,500 15,600 15,700 Very little impact YOY to 2012 figures, but we had expected 200-250K. Impact will be hardest for 2013 and 2014. Difficult to compete after quota is hit, so far Asians are down 20-40% Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 53
Mexico Light Vehicle Production: By OEM 1,200,000 Units 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Renault/Nissan General Motors Volkswagen Ford Chrysler Fiat Mazda 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 54
Bottom Line With the exception of Western Europe, global demand will continue to gather momentum BRICs will outsell TRIAD (USA, WE and Japan) within a few years Mexico has to explore new opportunities given this scenario, South America presents great potential The US has turned the corner, promising outlook for sales and production Mexican demand has broken the million unit mark! Production is promising but big uncertainties lie in the future Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Thank You for Your Participation! Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America IHS Automotive Contact: 24 Hartwell Ave Lexington, MA 02421 USA Ph: +1 781 301 9037 Em: guido.vildozo@ihs.com