Vermont Economic Conference:
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1 Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January
2 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook. Robust growth has diminished slack across many AEs Inflation still low but monetary policy is forward-looking Central banks take more steps towards the unwind of emergency policy Rising rates have led to curve flattening across many AEs Term premiastill low but may rebalance as QE goes into reverse Risks returning into balance: Above-trend growth is reducing downside risks in advanced economies Protectionism and geopolitical tensions remain on the table Elevated asset prices (equities, housing, CRE, bitcoin, etc) are an increasing concern 2
3 Recovery has been disappointing and fraught with forecast downgrades until recently Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Now
4 outlook has been upgraded for the second consecutive quarter the first time during this recovery AverageAnnual Growth %, 16Q3-17Q3 Average growth Range for trend growth 0.0 Canada U.S. Eurozone Italy Japan Source: National Statistical Agencies, TD Economics 4
5 Faster economic growth came hand-in in-hand with a surge in trade which followed years of underwhelming performance Trade volume; y/y % chng. World Advanced Economies (AE) Emerging Economies (EE) Source: TD Economics 5
6 Why does it matter for Vermont? Other Asia, 3.71 Exports (% of total) Oceania, 0.5 Africa, 0.39 S/C America, 1.16 Asia Pacific, 35.4 Canada, 40.5 Eurozone, 9.11 Other Europe, 1.25 UK, 2.38 Mexico, 5.6 6
7 Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is now in the rear view but many underlying issues remain year gov't bond yield, spread to German bunds; pp Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Source: TD Economics 7
8 Canada escaped recession in good shape before growth stalled on commodity price collapse Real GDP; y/y % chng. -6 Canada Nfld. & Lab. -8 Sask. Alberta Source: StatCan, TD Economics (Forecast as of Dec-2017). 8
9 China and India to power ahead as Brazil and Russia dig themselves out of moderate recessions Real GDP; y/y % chng. -2 Brazil Russia -4 India China Source: TD Economics 9
10 Rising U.S. oil production has altered the way the economy is affected by oil prices and the dynamics of the trade deficit MMB per Day; 12-Week Moving Average 11 Crude Oil Imports 10 Crude Oil Production Source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, TD Economics 10
11 Robust growth eliminating economic slack Output gap; % -4 EU UK -6 Japan Australia Source: TD Economics 11
12 Diminishing slack should help boost inflation CPI; y/y % chng U.S. Eurozone Japan U.K. Canada Source: TD Economics 12
13 Central banks start to step back from emergency levels Change in policy rate per year; basis points Federal Reserve Bank of Canada Bank of England European Central Bank Forecast 0 Source: TD Economics
14 Flattening yield curve is characteristic of maturing cycles, but does not suggest a recession is imminent Yield Curve Slope, % 10y-2y 10y-2y Excluding-QE Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Board, TD Economics Notes: Grey shaded areas represent NBER defined recessions. 14
15 Term premia should rebalance as QE diminishes Term premium, 10-year; % ACM KW Source: FRB, TD Economics
16 Dollar strength to continue diminishing as other central banks follow in Fed's footsteps FCU per $1 USD; GBPUSD CADUSD EURUSD Source: FRB, TD Economics 16
17 When it comes to the U.S. trade deficit NAFTA is not the culprit but China's entry to WTO has been a catalyst Trade Balance, % of US GDP China Canada Mexico China Source: Bureau of the Census, TD Economics. 17
18 Importance of manufacturing has been on a relative decline well before NAFTA or China's WTO entery Manufacturing employment, share; % US Canada EU Japan UK Source: TD Economics 18
19 Global growth to accelerate before slowing in-line with potential Real GDP; y/y % chng. 1 World Canada 0.5 EA UK 0 Austalia Japan Source: TD Economics 19
20 Thank you For more economic research and analysis please visit 20
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