Global Megatrends The 2012 Update of Our Future World Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz
Imagination is more important than knowledge - Albert Einstein Source: Wikimedia Commons Presentation title Presenter name Page 2
Different Types of Futures Possible Plausible Now Probable The Future Source: Voros (2003) adapted this diagram from Hancock and Bezold (1994) in the Healthcare Forum Journal
More Than Forecasting Actual oil price (other lines show predictions) Lynch, 2002. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.
Megatrends
1. More From Less It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small. - Neil Armstrong
More From Less World Population Growth The world population is forecast to grow from 7.2 billion persons today to 8.1 billion in 2025 and 9.6 billion by 2050 Source: United Nations
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 More From Less Food Price Movements 250 200 2007/08 Price Spike Between 75-130 million people became malnourished (Headey, 2011). Feb 2011 Highest on record 150 100 50 - From 2003 to 2007, the number of undernourished people increased from some 848 million to 923 million, largely because of the food-price crisis during this period (FAO, 2008). Source: World Bank
More More From From Less Less Agricultural Land Estimated that 12 million hectares of productive agricultural land, capable of producing 20 million tonnes of grain, lost each year to land degradation (United Nations, 2011). Presentation title Presenter name Page 9 Image Source: NASA Terra Satellite
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Australian Wheat Production (millions of tonnes) Global Cereals Price Index More From Less The best remedy for high food prices might be high food prices? 30 25 20 Australian Wheat Production (Millions of Tonnes) Global Cereal Price Index Wheat Production Trendline Cereal Price Trendline 300 250 200 15 150 10 100 5 50 0 0 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 FAO Food Price Index World Crude Oil Price(USD per Barrel, Weighted by export volume) More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices 250 120 200 150 100 Food Price Crude Oil Price 100 80 60 40 50 20 0 0
US Dollars Per Barrel More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices 120 100 Average Crude Oil Price (US$/bbl) 80 60 40 20 0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
World Energy Useage (Mtoe) More From Less Energy 6,000 5,000 2009 Current Policies 2035 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011
More From Less Water Scarcity
Gold Ore Grade (g/t Au) More From Less Gold Ore Grade 50 40 30 20 10 1835 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Data Source: United Nations Environment Program 2011, Metal Recycling Report
More From Less Extent of Mineral Resources in Emerging Economies Data Source: United States Geological Survey (2012)
2. Going, Going Gone?
Going, Going Gone? The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50 100 years by the activities of a single species. Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.
Going, Going Gone? Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
Going, Going Gone? Red List Red List Extinction Risk Index 1 = No concern 0 = Extinct Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010 Presentation title Presenter name Page 20
Going, Going... Gone? Staying Put Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
3. The Silk Highway
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Debt to GDP (%) Exchange Rate 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP Growth Rate (%) Unemployment (%) The Silk Highway The Last 10 Years Have Been Good Down Under 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 70 OECD members Australia 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1.2 OECD members Australia 60 OECD members Australia 1 50 0.8 40 30 20 10 0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Source: World Bank
The Silk Highway A Shifting World Economy Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
The Silk Highway Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years Presentation title Presenter name Page 25 Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
The Silk Highway An Economy in Transition? Source: The Reserve Bank of Australia
Share of US Total in 2003 (percent) More From Less From selling ingots to selling ideas 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Share of Steel Making Capacity Share of Steel Technology Firms Chicago Pittsburgh Detroit Cleveland Source: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society; Treado (2009)
4. Forever Young As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others. - Audrey Hepburn
Forever Young The Ageing Population Australia Today we re some 14% over 65 yrs old It will be 25% by 2050 Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Forever Young The Ageing Population in Japan By 2050 Japan s population will be 40% over 70 years old
Forever Young Retirement Savings Gap Tapered Retirement Source: Rice Warner
Forever Young The Rise of Chronic Illness In 2002 59% of deaths worldwide were from noncommunicable illness. It will be 69% in 2030. Source: Mathers and Loncar, 2006.
Proportion of total population overweight Forever Young Diabetes and Overweight Projections 80% 70% 60% 50% USA England Canada 40% 30% Spain Austria Australia France Italy 20% Korea 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Number of Competitors Forever Young Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged 35,000 30,000 25,000 Brisbane, Australia Melbourne, Australia Sydney, Australia 20,000 15,000 Edmonton, Canada 10,000 5,000 Toronto, Canada Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark Portland, Oregon, USA 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Data Source: World Masters Association
5. Virtually Here
Virtually Here The New Public Relations Challenge In 2009 United Airlines denied a damages claim made by a guitarist. He subsequently uploaded a song on youtube United Breaks Guitars. It was viewed over 12 million times. As it went viral the airline s stock dropped 10% costing US$180 million. Data source: World Economic Forum, Global Risk Reports Image source: Wikimedia
Retail Sales Volume Virtually Here The Growth of Online Retail Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales 2012 2015 10 % 15% Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.
Virtually Here Catch me if you can New models of retail Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls, South Korea, 2011 Woolworths Virtual Grocery Walls, Sydney, 2012 The Age Image Source: Flickr.com and The Age
Virtually Here The Work (Live?) Anywhere City In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.
Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM
Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month
Image Source: Wikipedia Commons Virtually Here Automation Outside the Factory
6. Great Expectations Now, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations. - Charles Dickens
Great Expectations Maslow s Hierarchy Self Actualization - Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts Esteem confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others Love and belonging Friendships, family, partnering Safety Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property Physiological Needs Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking
Material Consumption (metric tonnes per capita) Average GDP Per Capita for G8 Countries (excluding Russia) in 2000 USD Great Expectations Declining Material Consumption 21 20 19 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 18 17 16 Domestic Material Consumption Income (GDP Per Capita) 1980 1990 2000 2008 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Great Expectations Relative Decoupling Ratio of materials to GDP Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Great Expectations The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being: 1985 - Journal of Consumer Research 1992 - Journal of Consumer Research 1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior 1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal 2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being 2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology 2009 - Journal of Research in Personality 2003 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Great Expectations Utility - A non-linear relationship Not likely Happiness (utility) More likely K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beers (schooners)
Experiencing the Experience Economy Joseph Pine and James Gilmore
Great Expectations Increasing Importance of the Whole Package Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue The Moral Dimension Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand
Great Expectations Social Interaction
Basic Expectations 24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990) 33% of people in urban slums 15.5 percent of the world s population (1 billion) hungry United Nations, 2012
Thank you Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e stefan.hajkowicz@csiro.au w www.csiro.au CSIRO FUTURES