The Road Map Technology goals within the EPIA Roadmap Dr. Hubert A. Aulich Member of the Board PV Crystalox Solar AG PV Silicon AG
Introduction Roadmap focuses on these key areas: The Solar Perspective Technology Boundary conditions for growth
Transformation of Global Energy Systems, an Exemplary Path Geothermie andere Erneuerbare Solarthermie (nur Wärme) Solarstrom (PV und solarthermische Kraftwerke) Wind Biomasse (modern) Biomasse (traditionell) Wasserkraft Kernenergie yearly Energy consumtion [EJ/a] 1400 1000 600 Gas Kohle Öl 200 2000 2020 2040 Quelle: Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen, 2003 2100 Jahr
TWh 100000 World electicity World electricity production World electricity production from 2000 to 2040 Source :Solar Generation and IEA-PVPS from 2000 to 2040 KD 1 0000 10000 1000 1000 100 100 World Electricity Generated from PV in TWh World Electricity Generated from PV in TWh World Electricity Generation in TWh World Electricity Generation in TWh 10 10 1 1 2000 27% 34% 15% Growth 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Contribution of PV solar electricity to global electricity production 2020 2030 2040
I. Market Development Business as usual annual Worlwide market in MWp 3.500 3.232 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.655 2.070 2.585 1.500 1.150 1.320 1.000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Workshop 22 nd of December
How To Accomplish Long-term, How to accomplish Dynamic PV-growth: Reduce cost of installed system Develop markets in EU and Developing/ Emerging Countries Innovation, New Products Low environmental impact (recycling and reusing in a voluntary basis)
Cost Reduction With New Technologies Module - Crystalline Silicon Technology - Thin Film Technology BOS - Grid connected - Off-grid -BIPV
Targets Cost Reduction Crystalline Silicon Technology Dependable solar-grade silicon supply 2008/2009 Specific silicon consumption down to 7,5t /MWp(2010) - Wafers 150µm (2010) - Solar cells Cz 20% to 22% mc 17% to 18% Modules >20% efficiency and lifetime expectancy 35 years (2010)
Targets Cost Reduction Thin Film Technology Materials a-si, CIS, CdTe, c-si) Increased process area to 3m² (2010) and 9 m² (2020) Efficiencies 10-12% (2010) on to 15% (>2020). Lower efficiencies and low cost /m² BIPV New concepts
II.Production (1) Silicon Production [tons] 35.000 30.000 25.000 22.000 25.000 30.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 10.416 14.400 14.500 16.000 17.000 5.000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source for 2005: 2005 CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, rest estimated increase according to announced new production facilities.
II.Production (2) Volume available by 2010 30.000 [tons] by 2010 could be a realistic target. Price per Kg 30 to 40 /Kg is considered as realistic for 2010 or even lower. Wafer thickness 2008 to 2010 240µm in 2005, 100 to 130 µm for the end of the decade is achievable. Volume for Thin-Film: 1 GWp probably too ambitious, participants agreed on appr.600 MWp Upgraded MG-Si Considerable investment into c-si production to meet the industry needs
II.Production (3) [µm] 320 270 220 170 120 320 14,0% Ingots/Wafer thickness and Cell Efficiency 300 14,5% 15,0% 240 15,5% 200 16,0% 180 16,5% 170 17,0% 160 17,5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 [Efficiency in %] 150 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% Ingots/Wafer thickness (µm) Cell efficiency (in percent)
II.Production (4) g/wp Estimated Silicon consumption in g/wp and potential Module Production [MWp] 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 744 2003 14,0 4.000 12,0 3.125 11,0 10,0 2.588 9,0 1.889 8,5 8,0 7,5 1.600 1.200 1.318 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0
II. Production - Assumptions 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Silicon Production [tons] Silicon Cons. [g/wp] 10.416 14.400 14.500 16.000 17.00 0 22.00 0 25.00 0 30.00 0 14.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 csi [MWp] 744 1.200 1.318 1.600 1.889 2.588 3.125 4.000 Thin Film / New concepts / New players [MWp] Total [MWp] (CSi/TF/New) 30 50 100 150 200 500 700 1.000 774 1.250 1.418 1.750 2.089 3.088 3.825 5.070
II. Production Modules (c-si, Thin Film, new concepts) [tons] 6.000 Possible Total Production [MWp] 5,000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 1000 3,825 3,088 2,089 1,750 700 1,418 500 1,250 200 4.000 774 150 50 100 3.125 2.588 30 1.200 1.318 1.600 1.889 744 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 csi Thin-Film / New concepts / New players
100% Price experience 20% 15% 10% 1% 1 10 100 1.000 10.000 100.000 Cumulative installed GWp PV CONTRIBUTION TOTAL ELECTRICITY Price-experience curve for PV modules 2020 1 % 2040 26 %
System Development Systems Development
Power and Communication
Target Cost Targets BOS Reduction BOS Modularisation and Standardisation On-grid: competitive peak power 2010 competitive commercial power 2010 Off-grid: Better than diesel 2010 Village-grids and regional grids with PV-Hybrids 2020 (introduction of feed in tariff for mini grids)
IV. Conclusion More than 5 GWp annual installed capacity achievable by 2010, both from the production side as well as from the Market Continue Lobby (remove Caps/schemes/sustainability) SG Silicon available PV follows price experience curve PV becomes competitive in a decade in southern countries at peak electricity prices (additional decade for northern countries)