WPGA Conference 2017 The Pecan Industry in Chihuahua, Mexico: Challenges and Successes Dr. Julio López-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua lopezdiazjc@gmail.com Dr. Esteban Herrera NMSU Professor Emeritus
Acknowledgements M.S. Víctor Esparza NMSU alumnus & President of the Mexican Pecan System- Product Committee (COMENUEZ) 2
Today s Talk Pecan Industry s Overview: o National and Chihuahua StateLevels Topics: o Production o International trade o Acreage o Market and marketing o Tendencies o Challenges and Successes 3
Main Pecan-Producing States in Mexico Sonora Chihuahua Coahuila Durango NL Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 4
Mexican Pecan Growers: How are they organized? National Level State Level Local Level Regional Associations 5
Mexico s Pecan Production (MT) 140,000 120,000 125,758 122,714 MT 100,000 80,000 1,000 lbs 60,000 2014 277,246 40,000 2015 270,535 20,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 6
Production by State State Production 2015 (MT) Chihuahua 79,934 Sonora 15,028 Coahuila 12,509 Durango 7,143 Nuevo León 3,354 Others 4,746 122,714 10% 12% 6% 3% 4% Chihuahua Sonora Coahuila Durango 65% Nuevo León Others Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 7
Pecan Hectares in Mexico 120,000 100,000 2000-2015 104,371 108,012112,622 98,071 92,218 Year 2015 112,622 Has 80,000 60,000 50,478 51,82351,622 77,582 80,04884,50988,055 74,212 63,696 65,68568,383 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sup. Sembrada (Has) Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 8
MX s Production and Hectares 140,000 120,000 2000-2015 Year 2015 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 122,714 MT 112,622 Has 20,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA Sup. Sembrada (Has) Producción (Ton) 9
New Plantings in Mexico 7,000 6,000 5,829 5,853 6,300 Hectares 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,698 4,461 3,370 3,546 2,466 4,163 3,641 4,611 Avg. Increase per Year 4,267 Has Estimated to be 5,000 7,000 Has 1,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 10
International Trade Mexico-USA 120,000 Metric Tons 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 102,118 87,662 91,231 79,750 67,456 70,474 95,384 21,696 22,045 20,870 24,506 23,983 26,187 29,087 MT Imports Exports IMPORTACIONES EXPORTACIONES MT = 78% of Total Production 20,000-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAVI 11
Exports from Mexico to USA 120,000 100,000 Total 2015 95, 384 MT Metric Tons 80,000 60,000 40,000 Shelled 78% of Mexico s Production 20,000 In-Shell - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SIN CASCARA 46,646 71,777 42,868 45,147 56,213 69,567 60,480 CON CASCARA 41,016 19,454 24,587 25,327 23,537 32,551 34,904 Source: SIAVI and COMENUEZ 12
Mexican Exports to China 7,000 6,000 6,932 5,579 MT Metric Tons 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,391 3,316 3,141 3,337 4,092 = 4.54 % of Total Production 1,000 326 620 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 13
Mexico and China Sonora State: currently the biggest exporter to China (in-shell nuts). Smaller trade operations from other Mexican states. Chihuahua could be in the future a major player in exporting to China. 2016 China in Mexico: 28 Buyers representing 14 Companies Import Tax lowered: 25 to 10% http://www.sagarpa.gob.mx/delegaciones/distritofederal/boletines/paginas/jac0236-29.aspx 14
Pecan Apparent Consumption in Mexico Tons 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Apparent Consumption Production plus Imports minus Exports 30,000 20,000 10,000 45,773 64,637 49,775 49,480 56,417 Avg. Apparent Consumption 53, 216 MT 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAVI 15
Per Capita Consumption in Mexico (2014) gr Year 2014 26,132 MT Pecan Almonds Macadamia Pine nut Pistachio Hazelnuts Chestnuts Source: COMENUEZ 16
Pecan Industry in Chihuahua 17
Pecan Production in Chihuahua 80,000 CHIHUAHUA 79,934 MT 70,000 COAHUILA 66,302 Metric Tons 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 SONORA 10,000-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 18
Pecan-producing Regions Year 2014 18,000 16,000 16,025 Metric Tons 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 10,453 4,603 4,338 4,188 3,898 3,718 3,341 3,117 2,828 2,865 4,000 2,000 2,397 2,189 - Source: COMENUEZ 19
Pecan Production Forecasting Metric Tons Chihuahua could reach a production as high as 150,000 MT by 2025. Source: COMENUEZ 20
Chih s Pecan Hectares 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 55,119 53,029 51,389 48,535 47,103 44,656 42,685 40,590 38,445 64,049 66,302 60,250 CHIHUAHUA COAHUILA SONORA Yr 2015 68, 823 Has AVG. Increase per Year 2,532 Has estimated 3,000 5,000 Has 20,000 10,000-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 16,242 11,586 For 2016 estimated 70% production 30% development Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 21
Price-per-Point in Chihuahua (2001 2016) Price-per-Point 6.00 Source: COMENUEZ and Pecan Growers 5.00 4.95 5.19 5.03 Estimated Average Price Dollars 4.00 3.00 2.05 2.20 3.80 3.38 3.15 3.10 2.75 2.84 3.04 3.35 3.59 4.08 Price Fluctuation 2016-2017: 4.20 5.65 USD Feb 17th s Price : $ 4.20, Pecans 54% Meat 2.00 1.43 1.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year 22
Price per Kg in Chihuahua (2001 2016) Price (Pesos / Kg) 140.00 123.14 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 25.30 30.01 17.15 54.92 44.04 38.91 40.0048.47 44.45 70.20 84.82 46.15 50.36 60.59 82.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 23
Exchange Rate (2001 2016) Exchange Rate (Pesos/ USD) 25 20 20.05 16.54 15 13.94 12.96 12.33 13.55 13.09 12.94 13.95 10 9.57 10.18 11.15 11.28 10.51 10.85 10.83 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 24
Challenges and Successes 25
Success 1 Mexican Pecan growers have developed good pecan management knowledge and skills through short courses, conferences, talks, publications, etc. 26
Success 2 Good growers organizations. 27
Success 3 Plenty of orchard management information available: magazines, Facebook, webpages, etc. 28
Challenge 1 Improving Pecan Growers-Government team work. 29
Challenge 2 Need of accurate, reliable data of pecan industry. 30
Challenge 3 New Markets: Asia and Europe. 31
Challenge 3 Participating in Food & Trade Fairs. 32
Challenge 4 Consolidation of domestic market. Current pecan prices represent the main factor to increasing consumption. 33
U.S. International Trade in goods and services MEXICO In 2015, U.S. exports of goods and services to Mexico were $267.3 billion, down 1.4% from 2014, and imports from Mexico were $325.3 billion, up 0.7% from 2014. As a result, the trade deficit with Mexico increased to $57.9 billion. In 2015, exports to Mexico accounted for 11.8% of total U.S. exports, and imports from Mexico accounted for 11.8% of total U.S. imports. Exports were led by capital goods (excluding automotive), which accounted for 31.2% of U.S. exports to Mexico, and imports were led by automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, which accounted for 32.7% of U.S. imports frommexico. Who owns the automotive companies? 34
U.S. International Trade in goods and services MEXICO Consumer Products and Autos Drive the U.S. Trade Deficit https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?area=213 35
U.S. International Trade in goods and services Direct Investment of Multinational Enterprises in Mexico https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?area=213 36
U.S. International Trade in goods and services Activities of Multinational Enterprises in Mexico Mexican minimum wage 2017: $ 80 pesos per day or $ 4 dollars https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?area=213 37
U.S. Trade in goods with (Millions of U.S. dollars) Year 2016 Exports Imports Balance China 115,775.1 462,813.0-347,037.9 Japan 63,264.3 132,201.8-68,937.6 Mexico 230,959.1 294,151.0-63,191.9 China Deficit: 5.49 more times than Mexico https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html Source: 38
Challenge 5 USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA? 39
Challenge 5 USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA? 40
Challenge 5 USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA? 41
WPGA Conference 2017 The Pecan Industry in Chihuahua, Mexico: Challenges and Successes And maybe fears? Thank you! Dr. Julio López-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua lopezdiazjc@gmail.com Dr. Esteban Herrera NMSU Professor Emeritus