Climate Change and the Evolution of Canada s Wine Appellations Anthony B. Shaw Department of Geography & Cool climate Enology and Viticulture Institute Brock University, Ontario Canada 1
Georgian Bay Lake Huron Grey Huron Durham P EC Lake Ontario Norfolk Niagara Lake Erie North Shore Lake Erie 3
Trends in Spring Trends towards and early warm up 4
May April March 5
Evolution of Nova Scotia's Wine Climate (Greenwood) ) 1300 GDDs 1200 1100 1000 900 De Chaunac L Acadie, Lucie Kuhlmann Seyval Blanc Baco Noir, Marechal Foch Vidal, Riesling,Chardonnay, Pinot Noir REGION 1 800 700 600 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6
Evolution of Winkler Index for Granby, Estrie Region Quebec 1500 1400 1300 Lucy Kuhlman Ste. Croix, Chancellor, De Chaunac Vidal, Seyval, Marechal Foch Region I GDDs 1200 1100 1000 900 800 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 7
Trends in GGDs For Niagara Region 1970-2015 1800 1700 GDDs 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon Cabernet Franc Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay Chasselas Pinot Noir Chardonnay Gamay Riesling Pinot Gris Region II Region I 1000 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 8
Syrah Petit Verdot Grenache Region III Merlot Cabernet Sauvignon Cabernet Franc Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay Region II Chasselas Pinot Noir Riesling Chardonnay Region I 9
1600 Prince Edward County 1970-2012 Mean=1258 GDDS 100 GDDs 1500 1400 Region II GDDs 1300 1200 1100 Chasselas Pinot Noir Cabernet Franc Riesling Chardonnay Gamay Pinot Gris Sauvignon Blanc Gewürztraminer Region 1 1000 900 800 Tony B. Shaw 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10
Chasselas Pinot Noir Chardonnay Gamay Cabernet Franc Riesling Gewürztraminer Region I 11
Long-term trends in Growing Degree Days For Vines (1970-2016, Norfolk County) 1700 1600 1500 GDDs 1400 1300 1200 1100 Region 11 Region 1 1000 900 800 12
Trends in GDDs Value For Huron County 1700 1600 1500 GDDS 1400 1300 1200 Region I 1100 1000 900 800 13
Evolution of South Okanagan's Wine Climate, British Columbia 0 0 0 0 Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc, Sangiovese, Malbec, Chardonnay, Riesling Region III 0 0 Region II 0 Region 1 0 0 0 14
Evolution of the Winkler Index 15
Mean Growing Season Temperature 16
Observed and Projected Changes in GDDs to 2070s using the downscaled HADCM3 17
A2- Scenario- A heterogeneous world, increasing population, slower and fragmented technological change A1B- Rapid population that peaks in mid-century and declines followed by rapid introduction of energyefficient technologies and a balance between fossil and non-fossil fuels B1- A convergent world, population peaks in midcentury, and declines, global solutions and emphasis on social and environmental sustainability 18
2400 Past and Future Growing Degree Days Niagara, Ontario, Canada 2200 2000 1800 1600 GDD Baseline 10 C 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 2065 2067 2069 Year Observed A2 A1B B1 19
Pa st and Future Climate Normals Growing Degree Days Niagara, Ontario, Canada 2200 2000 1800 1600 GDD Baseline 10 C 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Observed 1971-2000 Observed 1981-2010 Observed and Modelled 1991-2020 Observed and Modelled 2001-2030 Modelled 2011-2040 Modelled 2021-2050 Modelled 2031-2060 Modelled 2041-2070 A2 A1B B1 20
Observed and Projected Extreme Minimum Temperatures 21
What are Extreme Climate Events in Viticulture. An extreme climate event is the exceedance of a threshold value by a climate variable on a particular occasion or one or more occasions within a time period for a particular crop Extreme events are relatively more sensitive to the variability of climate than to its average and this sensitivity is relatively greater the more extreme the event Extreme events can also be defined by the impact an event has on vineyard production that may involve excessive loss in yield and deterioration in quality or the destruction of the vines. 22
Trends in Potentially Damaging Temperatures <-20 o C 23
Potentially Damaging Temperatures <-20o C (Norfolk) 25 20 15 Frequency 10 5 0
# of days where Tmin<-20 degrees Celsius per year 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Past and Future Extreme Cold Days Vineland, Ontario, Canada Year Observed A2 A1B B1 25
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0 Trends in the Lowest Temperatures for January at Vineland -2-4 -6-8 -10-12 -14-16 -18-20 -22-24 -26 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 27
Occurrences of Extreme Maximum Temp>30o C 28
Definition: Volatility is the pace at which a climatic variable or index (temperature or precipitation) moves higher or lower over a time period, and how widely it varies or how extreme is the fluctuation 29
25 Daily temperature Variations December 1/16 to March 3/ 2017 20 15 10 Degree C 5 0-5 -10-15 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 Days 30
400 Deviations from Mean (1490 GDD Value for Niagara 300 200 Deviation from Mean 100 0-100 -200-300 -400 31
400 Precipitation Variability during Growing Season for Niagara, 1970-2014 Mean=528mm 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 32
Ice Wine and Climate Change 33
Vineyard Scale
Hand Picking icewine grapes
Trends in Ice Wine Picking Days For December 30 25 20 Days 15 10 5 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014, 1 36
30 Trends in Picking Days For January 25 20 15 10 5 0 37
25 Trends in Consecutive Picking Days 20 15 10 5 0 38
Trends in Ice Wine Picking Days in Dec & Jan (1970-2016, Niagara Ontario) 40 35 30 25 Days 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 39
Great Lakes and Climate Change 40
Georgian Bay Lake Huron Grey Huron Durham P EC Lake Ontario Norfolk Niagara Lake Erie North Shore 41
March 2016 Ice Cover 42
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1 Trends in Maximum Ice Cover for Lake Ontario 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 % 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 44 2012/13 2013/14
1 Lake Ontario s Ice Cover vs GDDs Values For Niagara 2000 0.9 0.8 GDDs 1800 1600 % 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Ice Cover 1400 1200 1000 800 0.2 600 0.1 400 0 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 45 200
April October Precipitation For Vineland 46
Trends in Growing April-October Rainfall Totals 47
800 Past and Projected Climate Normals Growing Season (AMJJASO) Total Precipitation Vineland, Ontario, Canada 700 600 566 615 603 615 642 580 613 665 578 582 692 578 559 500 mm 400 300 200 100 0 Observed 1971-2000 Modelled 2011-2040 Modelled 2021-2050 Observed A2 A1B B1 Modelled 2031-2060 Modelled 2041-2070 48
Extreme Precipitation Events 10 31-50mm yearly precipitation from 1930-2012 Frequency 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 y = 0.002x + 2.4567 0 930 933 936 939 942 945 948 951 954 957 960 963 966 969 972 975 978 981 984 987 990 993 996 999 002 005 008 011 49
Temperature During the Ripening Period 50
Trends in Diurnal Temperature Range During Ripening Period 52
28 Niagara Max and Min T For September Degree C 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Temperate Cool Very Cool DTR 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 53
15 Vineland's Lowest Fall Minimum Temperatures 10 5 September 0 October -5 November -10-15 54
Precipitation During Ripening to Harvest 55
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 August Rainfall Totals for Vineland 1970-2013 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 September Rainfall Totals for Vineland 1970-2013 20 0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 40 20 0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 October Rainfall Totals for Vineland, 1970-2013
Precipitation Totals for September and October 58
Impacts and Implications
Winter Freeze Damage Positive :Reduction in number of damaging winter extreme minimum freeze events <-20 degrees Negative Prolonged temperatures above 0o C can reduce cold hardiness Winter damage could actually increase due to occurrences of warm freeze-thaw events followed by cold snaps Therefore, freeze damage could occur at a higher minimum temperatures for varieties with low chilling requirements
Implications for Viticulture in the Long-Term Impact on Vine Phenology Spring Positive: Earlier bud break and flowering Negative: Potential damage from late spring frosts for varieties with early bud break
Positive April to October Growing season Warmer and longer growing seasons could enhance ripening potentials for red and late season varieties Negative More volatility in growing season conditions leading to a greater degree of variability in vintages Positive Potential for Full maturity of mid to late season varieties (Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon) Expansion into new areas around the Great Lakes currently considered climatically marginal Negative Accelerated ripening for early season varieties Lower acidity and higher sugar and alcohol levels due higher daytime and night time temperatures
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies. Most studies on adaptive strategies consider implementation based on experiences with recurrent environmental and viticultural challenges Examples of adaptation based on long-term future projections of climate change are uncommon Anticipatory adaptive strategies present many challenges due to uncertainties in future climate change projections Combine reactive and anticipatory adaptive strategies
Farming systems respond not only to environmental conditions, but also to economic, technological, institutional, political and social conditions. Any changes in these areas can be disruptive and costly. 64
Reactive Strategies 65
Diversify the Number of Cultivars and Growing Areas Expand the range of commercial varieties, but must consider consumers preferences Target new Areas with suitable soil types and climates (In progress in emerging areas)
Implement Active and Passive Freeze Protection Methods Currently widely practised by growers
Hedging Winter Injury and Vintage Variations Consider Insurance Policies and Institutional Support to hedge against losses from freeze injury and variations in vintage quality and yield Government support for technological innovations is a key driver in development of the adaptation and mitigation strategies related to climate change
Blending Blending the same varieties or different varieties from several areas or vineyards to reduce vintage variations and to create unique sensory attributes
Monitoring Systems Develop Micro-climate Monitoring Systems to assess evolution of established areas and to identify new areas Should include real time and archived data of key climatic parameters and indices for long-term analysis Monitoring various stages of plant phenology, fruit maturation and harvest (Vine Alert System and Vine and Fruit Tree Innovation Monitoring Systems)
Climate Change Long-Term Adaptation Strategies Through Institutional Support Develop cold-resistant varieties to accommodate cycles of freeze and thaw and higher chilling requirements Develop disease-resistant varieties Develop Climate Prediction Models for analysis at smaller spatial scales
Conclusions Climate Change Potential impacts are mixed containing challenges and opportunities Adaptive strategies in response to recurrent climatic events and economic factors are widely practiced What strategies we should implement in anticipation of future changes will depend on accuracy of our forecasts and support from various governmental and academic institutions
Thank You 73
Thank You
Implications for Viticulture in the Long-Term Impact on Vine Phenology Spring Positive: Earlier bud break and flowering Negative: Potential damage from late spring frosts Earlier veráison and ripening Impact on Quality