U.S. Infrastructure Market: Will It Jump-Start the Economy? Scott Hazelton Director, Construction Advisory Services May 21, 2009
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1 U.S. Infrastructure Market: Will It Jump-Start the Economy? Scott Hazelton Director, Construction Advisory Services May 21, 2009
2 Infrastructure Spending: Where Does it Go? Other Power, 6.9% 2008 Shares Highways & Streets, 32.3% Electric Power, 25.3% Water, 8.3% Sewer, 12.6% Other Land Transportation, 8.0% Water Transportation, 1.2% Air Transportation, 5.5%
3 The Reinvestment Act of 2009 $789 billion stimulus package passes through Congress Nearly $125 billion is allocated for Construction and Infrastructure projects Highway & Streets $27.5 Transportation $20.6 Power & Communication $24.2 Water & Sewage $14.0 Government & Communities $27.4 Housing Development $12.9
4 Distribution of Stimulus Expenditure (billions $) 150 Stimulus spending has biggest impact in Cumulative Spend Annual Spend
5 Total Infrastructure Market Excluding Power Stimulus creates absolute growth only in Total Expenditure % change (right)
6 Construction Outlook for Vertical Infrastructure Federal spending on public buildings avoids worse decline 10% 80 billions of $ % 0% % change % Total Infrastructure % change (right)
7 Stimulus Will Mitigate Downturn for Public Education and Health Care 60% 50% 40% 30% Institutional spending weathers this downturn better than previous ones 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Public Healthcare Public Education
8 Construction Outlook for Horizontal Infrastructure 240 Federal spending plugs the gap in state and local funding for 2010 and % % billions of $ 120 8% % change 60 4% % Total Infrastructure % change (right)
9 Highways See Significant Boost from Stimulus Package, Next Year 15% 10% Stimulus spending also mitigates downturn in other transportation segments 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Highways & Streets Other Land Transportation
10 But The Biggest Impact is on Quick Turn Projects 25% 20% Asphalt will be a winning industry 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Highw ay & Streets Pavem ent Bridge
11 Once Stimulus Fades, A Return to Slow Growth 50% 40% 30% 20% The U.S. will continue to under-invest in infrastructure 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Water Transportation Air Transportation
12 Sewer and Water Need to Catch Up from the Housing Boom 20% 15% Water construction in particular did not keep pace with home construction 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Sew er Water
13 Communications and Other Power Remain Cyclical Segments 70% 60% 50% 40% Minimal stimulus spending in these segments leave them recession sensitive 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Communications Other Pow er
14 The Power Market Takes A Deep Dive (Percent change from a year earlier) The power plant building boom is over Total excl Pow er Pow er
15 A Net Reduced Demand for Electric Power Electricity demand growth has been slowing Growth slowed from close to 2.5% during the 1990s to about 1.5% during this decade; between now and 2030, it will average 1.0% per year Slowing population growth affects residential and commercial demand Non-core residential and commercial uses are expanding Residential and commercial appliance standards are tightening Industrial demand growth affected by slow output growth States are establishing Efficiency/Electricity-Reduction Programs Obama has aggressive Electricity-Reduction Targets
16 A Subdued Outlook for New Power Plant Construction Net Generating Capacity Additions (net annual additions, gigawatts) Conservation and uncertainty over public policy rule the short term
17 Renewable Power Sources Are the Future Net Generating Capacity Additions by Fuel Type (gigawatts) Public policy on renewable energy overtakes once cheap natural gas as the driver for future generation fuel choice Coal Natural Gas Oil Nuclear Renewable 2007 vs vs. 2007
18 State Appropriations for Construction & Infrastructure Projects
19 State Appropriations as a Share of Total Construction (between )
20 Canadian Stimulus & Infrastructure Canada s Economic Action Plan calls for CN$ billion (US$ 9.78 billion) in infrastructure stimulus between CN$ 4 billion for the Infrastructure Stimulus Fund An additional CN$ 1 billion to accelerate the payments under the Provincial/Territorial Base Funding Initiative The remaining funds will be prioritized (CN$ millions): Highway & Streets CN$ 37 Transportation CN$ 453 Power & Communication CN$ 600 Water & Sewage CN$ 165 Government & Communities CN$ 4,539
21 Implications for Your Business Stimulus package prevents a worse outcome for 2009, but is insufficient to create growth Stimulus spending is sufficient to create growth in 2010, even with reduced state and local capital budgets Stimulus spending is skewed toward quick reaction projects that benefit certain commodities, e.g. asphalt more than steel Improving economic fundamentals will offset reduced stimulus spending to maintain solid growth in 2011 In the long run, infrastructure spending returns to the anemic average growth of the past decade Power, particularly electricity generation, will be the weakest performing segment for several years
22 Thank you Scott Hazelton Director, Construction Advisory Services
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