ESEE 2005 17 June 2005, Lisbon The Material Basis of the Global Economy Implications for Sustainable Resource Use Policies in North and South Arno Behrens, Stefan Giljum, Jan Kovanda, Samuel Niza arno.behrens@seri.at
Overview Overview Background: The MOSUS Project Methodology Results Policy Implications
Background: The MOSUS Project www.mosus.net Is Europe sustainable? Modelling opportunities and limits for restructuring Europe towards sustainability Funded by the 5th Framework Programme of the European Union (sub-programme environment and sustainable development) Endorsed by the Industrial Transformation Project of the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP-IT)
Background: The MOSUS Project Modelling material flows with the GINFORS Model GINFORS: multi-country (56 countries/world regions), multi-sectoral (41 sectors) input-output model system, including international trade and energy use MOSUS: extension by material input (and land use) models (in physical units) Sustainability scenarios: implications of EU environmental policy measures on resource extraction and use (Europe and world-wide)
Methodology Methodology: Basic Facts 188 country sheets Time period: 1980 2002 Categorisation of materials following Handbook for Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounting (EUROSTAT, 2001) Used extraction plus estimation of unused extraction (e.g. overburden)
Methodology Material Groups (number of categories) 1. Fossil fuels (6) 2. Metal ores (37) 3. Industrial minerals (41) Construction minerals (9) Industrial and construction minerals (15) 4. Agriculture (139) By-products of agriculture (3) Grazing (1) Forestry (2) Fisheries (3) Other biomass (4)
Results Global Used Extraction by Material Category 60 50 billion tons 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Fossil Fuels Metals Ind. & Const. Minerals Biomass
Results Shares of Global Used Extraction by World Region 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Africa Asia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe
Results Domestic Extraction per Capita per World Region 70 60 tons per capita 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Africa Asia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe World
Results Material Intensity by World Region tons per 1000 US $ (const. 1995) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Africa Asia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe World
Results Discussion I: Global Resource Use Relative de-coupling, but absolute increase Scale effect dominating structural and technology effects unsustainable development Southern physical growth in the future Changes in production and consumption patterns in particular in rich countries / world regions
Results Global Extraction of Metal Ores by Region 7 6 5 billion tons 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Africa As ia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe
Results Shares of Global Metal Ore Extraction by Region 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Africa As ia Latin America & Carribbean North America Oceania Transition Countries Western Europe
Results Physical trade balance of ores (M-X, in 1000 t) Ores US West. Europe Japan Raw materials Zinc -374 1178 512 Tin -0,5-6 0 Nickel 42 33 78 Lead 89 107 116 Copper -84 434 1159 Bauxite 12020 10794 1995 Iron 12263 116709 126600 Semi-processed Zinc 860 104 160 Tin 32-871 -678 Nickel 134 574 103 Lead 117 303 25 Copper 595 1641 18 Aluminium 3987 3777 2817 Source: Muradian and Martinez-Alier 2001
Results Change of S-N trade flows 1970s-1990s Item % of change in weight % of change in price (US $ 1987) Aluminium 660-12 Pig iron 306-26 Iron and steel shapes 238-31 Nickel 196-22 Zinc 87-35 Copper ores 70-52 Copper alloys 32-35 Bauxite 30 71 Tin alloys 12-63 Lead 9-46 Zinc ores 8-45 Nickel ores -3-46 Iron ores -10-32 Lead ores -10-34 Tin ores -97 22 Source: Muradian and Martinez-Alier 2001
Results Discussion II: Metal Ores Northern decrease in extraction & increasing physical imports of metal ores and products from South Southern specialisation in metal extracting activities (Latin America) environmental distribution Falling prices & rising export volumes negative prospects for economic development
Policy Implications Northern Agenda High potentials for economically profitable resource savings Set of key policy instruments: ecological fiscal reform, subsidy reform, green public procurement, etc. Key sectors: energy, transport, industry, agriculture, construction Trade effects of price increases for natural resources
Policy Implications Southern Agenda Diversification of economic structures: linking domestic sectors, increasing human skills, reducing negative environmental impacts Horizontal and vertical diversification Environmental policy instruments (e.g. fiscal reform) for poverty reduction Improving policy coherence, in particular between trade and environment policies
Policy Implications International Agenda North-South transfer of financial and technology resources Redistribution of financial resources (debt relief, cofinancing of development projects, e.g. with incomes from Northern environmental taxes) Trade reforms: providing market access for Southern products; eliminating tariff distortions, reform of subsidy systems, etc.
The end..thank you! More information: www.mosus.net E-mail: arno.behrens@seri.at