Economic Outlook Breakfast September 14, 2017 The State of the Hospitality Industry in Rhode Island Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com 98 North Washington Street, Suite 403, Boston, MA 02114 ~ 617/722-9916 www.pinnacle-advisory.com
NATIONAL LODGING MARKET
Historic Market Performance - US 70.0% 65.0% 15 Year History Average Occ: 61.3% Occ Range: 54.7% to 65.5% ADR CAGR: 2.8% Since Recession ( 09) Occ increased from 54.7% to 65.5% ADR CAGR: 3.4% $150.00 $120.00 60.0% $90.00 55.0% $60.00 50.0% $30.00 45.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Occupancy ADR RevPAR $0.00 Source: STR Pinnacle Advisory Group
RevPAR % Change - US 10.0% 5.0% 8.0% 8.3% 7.9% 5.6% 5.5% 8.1% 6.8% 5.3% 8.0% 6.3% 3.2% 0.0% -1.5% -1.8% -1.5% -5.0% -6.6% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-17.0% Source: STR Pinnacle Advisory Group
YTD Performance Through July 2017 - US July 2016 July 2017 % Change Occupancy 66.3% 66.6% 0.5% ADR $124.12 $126.81 2.2% RevPAR $82.27 $84.46 2.7% Source: STR Pinnacle Advisory Group
New Supply July 2017 Under Contract - 591,865 rooms in 4,899 hotel projects 11.7% increase in rooms year-over-year Under Contract data includes projects in the In Construction, Final Planning and Planning stages, but does not include projects in the Unconfirmed stage. Under Construction - 188,734 rooms in 1,436 hotel projects 10.2% increase in rooms year-over-year Source: STR Pinnacle Advisory Group
Hot Topics - US U.S. Economy, Strength of USD, and Other Global Concerns Direct Bookings vs. OTAs TRUMP! Sharing Economy, fight continues Rising Costs Healthcare, Labor, etc. Pinnacle Advisory Group
Key Takeaways (2017) - US 2016 was the highest Occ, ADR, and RevPAR ever recorded. Hotel revenue grew 4.8% in 2016, slower growth than in 2015 (7.4%). This trend is expected to continue through 2017 with growth driven mostly by ADR increases. Compression nights (+95% occ) in Top 25 markets YTD was up 6% over YTD 2016. According to Morgan Stanley, the average rate premium for a compression night over an average night is approx. 23%. Occupancy is expected to remain flat in 2017. Demand growth is slowing and supply growth is increasing. RevPAR growth will be erratic. Major gateway cities and top markets will face is growing supply from hotel development and the sharing economy, particularly through Airbnb. Pinnacle Advisory Group
U. S. Industry Projections 2017 2018 STR PWC CBRE STR PWC CBRE Occupancy -0.3% +0.1% +0.1% Occupancy -0.2% 0.0% 0.1% ADR +2.8% +2.1% +2.9% ADR +2.8% +2.1% +2.3% RevPAR +2.5% +2.3% +3.0% RevPAR +2.6% +2.0% +2.4% Pinnacle Advisory Group
NEW ENGLAND LODGING MARKET
New England Occupancy 2016 80% 75% 70% 67.4% 68.9% 65% 60% 60.7% 60.3% 60.7% 59.2% 55% 50% 45% 40% Connecticut Rhode Island Massachusetts Vermont New Hampshire Maine Source: Smith Travel Research
New England Average Daily Rate - 2016 $200.00 $180.00 $180.02 $160.00 $140.00 $142.43 $140.86 $120.00 $115.85 $129.58 $124.74 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 Connecticut Rhode Island Massachusetts Vermont New Hampshire Maine Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group
New England RevPAR 2016 Maine $73.84 $70.36 Connecticut New Hampshire $78.65 $96.04 Rhode Island Vermont $84.99 Massachusetts $124.07 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group
RHODE ISLAND LODGING MARKET
Rhode Island Historical Market Performance 2006-2016 $160.00 70.0% $140.00 65.0% $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 60.0% 55.0% $60.00 50.0% $40.00 $20.00 45.0% $0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ADR RevPAR Occ 40.0% Source: Smith Travel Research
Rhode Island Year-to-Date July 2017 July 2016 July 2017 Occupancy 66.2% 65.0% ADR $138.75 $142.39 RevPAR $91.80 $92.49 Source: STR REVPAR PERFORMANCE VARIES: RI RevPar up 0.8% MA up 2.4% NY down 0.5% Wash DC up 8.0%
CITY OF PROVIDENCE LODGING MARKET
Providence Historical Market Performance 2006-2016 $180.00 75.0% $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% $20.00 $0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ADR RevPAR Occupancy 50.0% Source: STR
Providence YTD June 2017 2016 2017 Occupancy 68.6% 70% ADR $163.98 $165.67 RevPAR $112.50 $115.91 RevPar Up 3.0% Source: STR
Providence - Future Convention Office Market Other Demand Factors New Supply Projections
Providence Convention Tap Report Aug. 31 2017 Q4 2017 Definite Rooms are 22% behind the Pace Target (4,460 Room Nights) 2018 Definite Rooms are 28% behind the Pace Target (21,966 Room Nights). Every month of 2018 is behind the Pace Target. The weakest months are June and Sept., which are at 45% and 46% of their respective Pace Targets. The strongest months are May, Jan. and Oct. which are at 111%, 85% and 82% of Pace Targets, respectively. Source: The Tap Report July 2017
CVB The Good News Given the shorter booking windows, the CVB has been successful in filling some of the gaps for 2018. The CVB is focused on bringing in more group business when transient is at peak (i.e. October). The CVB is seeing an uptick in international attendees. In summary, 2018 will not be as strong as 2017 but is working to try to close the gaps. Source: The Providence CVB Report July 2017
Providence Downtown Office Market (class A, B, C) 20% 18.9% Vacancy 17.2% 16.9% 15.9% 16.0% 16.2% 16% 15.6% 15.2% 14.8% 13.4% 12% 11.2% 8% 4% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: CBRE
Providence Other Factors Economic Outlook: Modest Growth Anticipated New Lodging Supply: No New Supply in 2017/2018
Providence Projections Projections 2017: 70% @ $168: RevPAR-$117.60 2018: 69% @ $170: RevPAR- $117.30
WARWICK LODGING MARKET
Warwick Historical Market Performance 2006-2016 $100.00 75.0% $90.00 70.0% $80.00 65.0% $70.00 $60.00 60.0% $50.00 55.0% $40.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ADR RevPAR Occ 50.0% Source: Smith Travel Research
Warwick YTD July 2017 2016 2017 Occupancy 71.6% 69.8% ADR $98.80 $100.92 RevPAR $70.71 $70.44 Up 2.1% Down -.0.4% Source: Smith Travel Research
Warwick Future Unemployment: Improvement Industrial Market: 5.6% Vacancy Airport Factors: YTD Passengers flat YTD but Anticipates Strong Growth New Lodging Supply: None Office Market: 9.9% Vacancy Lowest Rate Since 2006 Other: Providence Market Will Provide Some Compression Projections 2017: 71% @ $102.00: RevPAR-$72.42 2017: 72% @ $104: RevPAR- $74.88 Economy: Continues to Improve
NEWPORT LODGING MARKET
Newport Historical Market Performance 2006-2016 $250.00 70.0% $200.00 $150.00 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% $100.00 50.0% $50.00 45.0% $0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ADR RevPAR Occ 40.0% Source: Smith Travel Research
Newport YTD July 2017 2016 2017 Occupancy 62.4% 58.5% ADR $203.38 $207.80 RevPAR $126.88 $121.51 Up 2.2% Down -4.2% Source: Smith Travel Research
Newport Future International Visitors: 14% increase (International Passengers) as of June YTD 2017 at Logan. International travel at TF Green will be a positive. New Supply No New Supply in Newport. But hotels are in Planning. Group/Meetings Market: Status Quo Marketing and Programming from Private Sector Remains a Positive $223.4 M Bridge Work - Newport Bridge, Mt Hope Bridge and Jamestown Bridge Perception of Traffic Projections 2017: 62% @ $220: RevPAR-$137.02 2018: 63% @ $226.50: RevPAR- $142.69 Higher Gas Prices: Mixed Results
MIDDLETOWN LODGING MARKET
Middletown Historical Market Performance 2011-2016 $140.00 70.0% $120.00 65.0% $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% $20.00 45.0% $0.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ADR RevPAR Occ 40.0% Source: Smith Travel Research
Middletown YTD July 2017 2016 2017 Occupancy 56.4% 55.9% ADR $130.66 $136.82 RevPAR $73.71 $76.47 Up 4.7% Up 3.7% Source: Smith Travel Research
Middletown Future Remains a Price Alternative for Newport Visitor New Supply New Supply Navy Base Expect to See Moderate Growth 146 Room Cambria (June 2017) 200 Room Navy Gateway Inn and Suites (December 2017) Newport Grand Casino Will Close and its Future Use Uncertain Tiverton Casino Will Include a Hotel Projections 2017: 57% @ $140: RevPAR-$79.80 2018: 56% @ $141: RevPAR- $78.96
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