Residential Development Analysis June 2017 STAKEHOLDER PRESENTATION Don Smith Planning Consultant Office: 719-234-1222 Cell: 719-492-4972 1
Colorado Springs Economic Outlook 2.9% unemployment in May Combined sales and use tax through May (April Collections) is up 11.3% over the same period in 2016. Ballot issue 2C, Road Tax, is up 13.5% year to date over 2016. Public safety sales and use tax (.4%) and the trails, open space and parks tax (TOPS) are up 11.3% over 2016. Lodgers and auto rental tax are up 20.4% over 2016. Single-family home sales totaled 1,743 in June 2017 topping the record of 1,651 set in June 2016. Sale prices of existing homes have increased on a year-over-year basis each month since December 2017, or a streak of 31 straight months. (Median price $285,250) 2
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Check Of Homebuilders Estimate of New Construction vs. Actual Builds Since 2007, data supplied to the district by developers for projected versus the actual number of residential units completed has been documented for accuracy. The results are as follows: Single Family Units: 93.7% Single Family Attached Units: 75.3% Multifamily Units: Projections have been very inaccurate on an annual basis but very accurate if you look at the data over a multi-year period. 7
Commercial Construction Activity COSO2 Data Center Interquest and Federal Drive Victory Ridge (Colorado Crossing)---New theater, other commercial space, some residential and possible hotels. Sports complex to be located on the southern portion of the site. Memorial Children s Hospital NE corner of Powers & Old Ranch Road zoned commercial Highlands at Briargate Restaurant sites being developed along with a 40,000 SF medical office building to include urgent care and imaging facility, and an assisted living center. Polaris Pointe (Copper Ridge)---50 upscale lofts ($2,500/mo. rent), 5 additional restaurants considering area, and 750 seat auditorium. Interquest Commons--- gastropub (Back East Bar and Grill) and 2 new hotels (Springhill Suites 2018). 8
Major Growth Areas Of the District The major residential growth areas remain, for the most part, along Powers Boulevard from Woodmen Road on the south through Flying Horse Ranch on the north. The two outliers that are going to contribute to growth in the district are Sterling Ranch, located north of Woodmen Road and east of Vollmer Road, and The Farm located North of Interquest Parkway and west of Voyager Parkway. 9
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Growth Analysis 2017-2022 11
Utilization Factor % of design capacity that is occupied every period of the day: Elementary 90% Secondary 85% 12
Student Yield Standards Previous Academy 20 Student Yield Planning Standards By Housing Unit Type School Type Single Family- Single Family- Multifamily Detached Attached Elementary 0.346 0.171 0.035 Middle 0.173 0.085 0.017 High 0.231 0.114 0.023 Total 0.750 0.370 0.075 Academy 20 Student Yield Planning Standards By Housing Unit Type-Updated 2017 School Type Single Family- Detached Single Family- Attached Multifamily Elementary 0.293 0.099 0.098 Middle 0.173 0.047 0.047 High 0.202 0.051 0.039 Total 0.668 0.197 0.184 13
Residential Development Projections Major Developers 2017-2022 Data Date: March 2017 14
Single Family Detached La Plata LLC. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Units Remaining Cordera 874 128 144 112 104 103 100 North Fork 598 106 151 159 150 32 0 The Farm 611 87 107 109 61 38 38 Nor'wood Classic Wolf Ranch 3,665 135 148 163 179 110 110 Flying Horse 1,352 59 58 80 80 80 80 Sterling Ranch 2,920 121 110 110 110 110 110 TOTALS 10,020 636 718 733 684 473 438 15
Single Family Attached Nor'wood 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Units Remaining Wolf Ranch 970 40 40 40 40 40 40 Classic Flying Horse 253 18 22 0 0 0 0 TOTALS 1,223 58 62 40 40 40 40 16
Multifamily La Plata LLC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Units Remaining Cordera 200 0 0 0 200 0 0 North Fork 132 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nor'wood The Farm 280 280 0 0 0 0 0 Wolf Ranch 1,698 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTALS 2,310 280 0 0 200 0 0 17
Estimated Students Generated By New Construction 2017-2022 By High School Attendance Area 18
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Total Total Total Elementary Students Elementary Middle School High School Flying Horse SF 17 17 23 23 23 23 128 The Farm SF 25 31 32 18 11 11 129 The Farm MF 27 0 0 0 0 0 27 Flying Horse SFA 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 72 51 55 41 35 35 288 Middle School Students Flying Horse SF 10 10 14 14 14 14 76 The Farm SF 15 19 19 11 7 7 76 The Farm MF 13 0 0 0 0 0 13 Flying Horse SFA 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 39 30 33 24 20 20 167 High School Students Flying Horse SF 12 12 16 16 16 16 88 The Farm SF 18 22 22 12 8 8 89 The Farm MF 11 0 0 0 0 0 11 Flying Horse SFA 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 41 34 38 28 24 24 190 19
Elementary Students 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Wolf Ranch SF 40 43 48 52 32 32 248 Wolf Ranch SF-A 4 4 4 4 4 4 24 Sterling Ranch SF 35 32 32 32 32 32 197 79 80 84 89 68 68 468 Middle School Students Wolf Ranch SF 23 26 28 31 19 19 146 Wolf Ranch SF-A 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 Sterling Ranch SF 21 19 19 19 19 19 116 46 47 49 52 40 40 274 High School Students Wolf Ranch SF 27 30 33 36 22 22 171 Wolf Ranch SF-A 2 2 2 2 2 2 12 Sterling Ranch SF 24 22 22 22 22 22 136 54 54 57 60 46 46 318 20
Elementary Students 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Cordera SF 38 42 33 30 30 29 202 Cordera MF 0 0 0 20 0 0 20 North Fork SF 31 44 47 44 9 0 175 69 86 79 94 40 29 397 Middle School Students Cordera SF 22 25 19 18 18 19 121 Cordera MF 0 0 0 9 0 0 9 North Fork SF 18 26 28 26 6 0 103 40 51 47 53 23 19 234 High School Students Cordera SF 26 29 23 21 21 20 140 Cordera MF 0 0 0 8 0 0 8 North Fork SF 21 31 32 30 6 0 121 47 60 55 59 27 20 21 268
Summary of Growth Area Additional School Needs 2017-2022 Current Current Current Elementary Modulars Middle School Modulars High School Modulars High School Attendance Area Seats Needed In Use Seats Needed In Use Seats Needed In Use Discovery Canyon High School 288 167 190 Existing Schools: Antelope Trails 1 Discovery Canyon Discovery Canyon da Vinci Discovery Canyon 1 Sites Available: The Farm Liberty High School 468 274 318 Existing Schools: Explorer 3 Timberview 3 Liberty 6 Frontier 2 Pioneer 2 Prairie Hills 3 Ranch Creek 2 Sites Available: Wolf Ranch PreK-12 Wolf Ranch PreK-12 Wolf Ranch PreK-12 Wolf Ranch North Cumbre Vista Pine Creek High School 397 234 268 Existing Schools: Chinook Trail 3 Challenger 3 Pine Creek 4 Mountain View Edith Wolford Sites Available: North Fork Chinook Trail TOTALS 1,153 17 675 6 776 10 22
Help Is On The Way!!! November 8, 2016 Bond Issue: 2 Elementary Schools 1 Middle School Center For innovative Learning Discovery Canyon Campus Addition Liberty High School Addition Pine Creek High School Addition School In The Woods 23
THIS IS NOT THE END!!!!!! Units Remaining To Be Build In Growth Area Beyond 2022 Estimated New Students Beyond 2022 Single Family Units Estimated Students: Cordera 183 Elementary School North Fork 0 Single Family 0.293 1,857 The Farm 171 Single Family Attached 0.099 93 Wolf Ranch 2,820 Multifamily 0.098 179 Flying Horse 915 0.490 Sterling Ranch 2,249 Middle School TOTAL REMAINING 6,338 63.3% Single Family 0.173 1,096 Single Family Attached 0.047 44 Single Family Attached Multifamily 0.047 86 Wolf Ranch 730 0.267 Flying Horse 213 High School TOTAL REMAINING 943 77.1% Single Family 0.202 1,280 Single Family Attached 0.051 48 Multifamily Multifamily 0.039 71 Cordera 0 0.292 North Fork 132 The Farm 0 TOTAL ELEMENTARY 2,130 Wolf Ranch 1,698 TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,227 TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 1,400 TOTAL REMAINING 1,830 79.2% 24
QUESTIONS 25