Demographic Impact The New Consumer Edwin I. Aquino Commercial Director, Symphony IRI Group
Agenda 1 2 3 4 Introduction The World is changing Puerto Rico coming Conclusions 2 2
Thousands Top 10 Countries Population Count 1,400,000 1,330,045 1,200,000 1,147,996 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 303,825 200,000 237,512 191,909 167,762 153,547 140,702 138,283 127,288 0 China India United States Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Russia Nigeria Japan Source: U.S Census Bureau International Census Database 3 3
World Population Ageing Report This report was prepared by the Population Division as a contribution to the 2002 World Assembly on Ageing and its follow-up. The report provides a description of global trends in population ageing and includes a series of indicators of the ageing process by development regions, major areas, regions and countries. The report shows that: Population ageing is unprecedented, without parallel in human history and the twenty-first century will witness even more rapid ageing than did the century just past. Population ageing is pervasive, a global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child but countries are at very different stages of the process, and the pace of change differs greatly. Countries that started the process later will have less time to adjust. Population ageing is enduring: we will not return to the young populations that our ancestors knew. Population ageing has profound implications for many facets of human life. Source: Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division website 4 4
World Population Ageing Report 5 5
World Population Ageing Report Fertility Rate vs. Life Expectancy Life Expectancy 6 6
Quality of Life More Important than ever 7 7
Puerto Rico Population Profile 53.0% 52.0% 51.0% 50.0% 49.0% 48.0% 52.0% Census Year Count 1990 3,552,037 2000 3,808,610 2009est. 4,003,578 2010????? 47.0% 48.0% 46.0% Men women Source: U.S Census Bureau Fuente: Junta de Planificación, Programa de Planificación Económica y Social, Oficina del Censo 8 8
Births in Puerto Rico 52,000 50,803 51,239 50,687 50,000 48,744 48,000 46,000 46,744 45,687 44,000 44,080 42,000 40,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: PR Health Department ( departamento de Salud unidad de estadísticas) 9 9
Puerto Rico Fertility vs. Life Expectancy Life expectancy at birth (years) Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2.5 79.5 79 2 78.5 78 1.5 77.5 1 0.5 76 77 77 77 78 78 78 78 79 79 79 77 76.5 76 75.5 75 0 74.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 10
Puerto Rico by Age Group 310000 315000 300000 290000 280000 310000 305000 270000 260000 250000 240000 230000 0-4 5-9 300000 295000 290000 285000 10-14 15-19 220000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 280000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 310000 290000 305000 300000 295000 290000 285000 280000 20-24 285000 280000 275000 270000 265000 25-29 30-34 275000 260000 35-39 270000 265000 260000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 255000 250000 245000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 11 11
Puerto Rico by Age Group 280000 260000 40-44 240000 45-49 220000 200000 180000 160000 50-54 55-59 60-64 140000 120000 100000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 65-69 70-74 12 12
The World Ageing and so is.. Puerto Rico however we are ageing faster 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 60 and Over Puerto Rico 22.4% 20.8% 23.6% 19.1% 17.0% 15.4% 64.0% 62.0% 60.0% 58.0% 56.0% 54.0% 53.8% Women by Age Group 58.7% 55.5% 62.4% 5.0% 0.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 52.0% 50.0% 48.0% 40+59 60+ 80+ 100+ Source: U.S Census Bureau 13 13
Puerto Rico- Population Proyection 60,000 Death's Births 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 14 14
Birth's By Municipality 5,000 4,500 4,760 4,494 4,395 4,000 3,500 2007 2008 2009 3,000 2,500 2,000 2,523 2,5402,477 2,330 2,226 2,228 2,161 2,022 1,962 1,885 1,744 1,683 1,500 1,000 1,146 1,111 1,141,139 1,010 1,092 1,009 1,057999 500 0 San Juan Bayamón Ponce Carolina Caguas Guaynabo Toa Baja Arecibo 15 15
If that didn t surprise you.but there is more 16 16
Media has fragmented 17 17
Media has fragmented Network TV Cable TV Broadcast radio Satellite radio Internet Print Outdoor Direct mail Movie theaters Transit Telemarketing 18 18
Media has fragmented Network TV Cable TV Broadcast radio Satellite radio Internet Print Outdoor Direct mail Movie theaters Transit Telemarketing 19 19
Consumers have changed 20 20
Consumers have changed Gender Age Lifestyle Geography Attitudes Ethnicity Income Education Health 21 21
Consumers have changed Gender Age Lifestyle Geography Attitudes Consumer Ethnicity Income Education Health 22 22
Channels have proliferated Consumer 23 23
Channels have proliferated Grocery Drug Consumer Mass Super centers Dollar Club Convenience School Out-of-home On-line On-premise Vending 24 24
Channels have proliferated Grocery Drug Mass Super centers Dollar Consumer Channel Club Convenience Work place Out-of-home On-line On-premise Vending 25 25
What do I do with this information? Who is your consumer? Where are they located? How often are they Shopping? What are they buying? How much do they spend with each shopping trip? How much disposable income do they have? 26 26
Puerto Rico Workforce by Age Group 30.0% 27.3% 26.5% 25.0% 24.2% 24.0% 22.2% 24.4% 2003 2010 20.0% 15.0% 13.5% 10.0% 10.0% 6.9% 10.6% 5.0% 0.0% 3.3% 3.6% 2.4% 1.0% 16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 27 27
Population by Gender Women de dominate gender in Puerto Rico San Juan Men Women Men Women 49.0% 50.4% 53.4% 51.7% 54.4% 58.6% 51.0% 49.6% 46.6% 48.3% 45.6% 41.4% 52.0% 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Mayagüez Men Women 48.0% 49.2% 48.7% 49.3% 54.0% 54.3% 57.7% 50.8% 51.3% 50.7% 46.0% 45.7% 42.3% 2009 Source: U.S Census Bureau 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Census projection PR 2010 28 28
Income distribution by Municipality 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.8% 4.8% 6.3% 11.0% 15.4% 23.4% 12.4% 4.0% 2.2% 0.8% 1.2% 3.7% 6.8% 7.3% 11.8% 19.8% 18.4% 24.2% 100,000+ 50000-99999 70.0% 60.0% 14.3% 13.8% 9.2% 13.4% 24.5% 10.6% 12.8% 12.8% 35000-49999 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 19.5% 13.5% 19.8% 12.3% 14.5% 11.1% 14.5% 10.9% 16.9% 20.0% 11.5% 13.7% 17.5% 11.1% 25000-34999 15000-24999 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 40.5% 26.8% 33.6% 24.8% 23.1% 29.3% 25.8% Bayamón Carolina Cataño Guaynabo San Juan Toa Baja Trujillo Alto 10000-14999 9,999 29 29
Puerto Rico Population by municipality 0.0% -2.0% Adjuntas Ponce San Juan Mayagüez Cataño -1.5% -4.0% -6.0% -4.5% -5.1% -8.0% -6.8% -10.0% -12.0% -10.6% 30 30
Population By Country -2050 Puerto Rico United States 35.0% 32.2% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 12.4% 19.3% 25.5% 18.9% 17.8% 17.6% 14.3% 11.0% 20.2% 10.0% 5.0% 6.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0-14 15-19 20-39 40-54 55-64 65+ 31 31
Consumers are more informed, more and online demanding than ever 92% of respondents said they had more confidence in information they seek out online than anything coming from a salesclerk or other source 32 32
New Consumer A health conscience women Who s Going to what to stay healthy and looking younger Working women high position with high income. Small family one child maybe 33 33
Any Questions Edwin Aquino Symphony IRI Group Inc 1750 Ave. Fernandez Juncos 2nd Floor Rainbow Building Santurec PR, 00909 787-728-9699 ext 234 34 34