weekly football tip sheet

weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 17 College Football Week 17 NFL Week 16

Football Weekly INDEX Rotation Schedule... 2 NFL Picks... 3 NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown... 4 NFL Top Weekly Trends... 5 Super Bowl Futures Bets - Know These Import Stats... 6 NFL Strength... 9 NFL Matchups... 10 Post Christmas and Pre New Years College Bowl Game Trends and Systems... 15 Football Line Moves... 18 College Football Bowl Games... 19 WELCOME TO THE VEGAS INSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY The 2015-16 bowl season is underway and we at the Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication are ready to tackle the next set of games. In this Issue #17 of the FW, we will cover all of the bowl games between December 23rd and December 29th, starting with the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday between Boise State & Northern Illinois and wrapping up with the Texas Bowl between Texas Tech & LSU. Between those two games we will cover 14 others. For each game, we again offer a whole page of in-depth coverage, including stats, matchups, editorial, our popular Strength, and of course, picks from our group of handicappers. Take note that our top handicapper, Jim, won his first two Best Bets of the Bowl Season to run his season record to 27-17 ATS. If you like what you re getting from our coverage of the bowl games, you ll get at least twice that if you pick up a copy of the 2015-16 Vegas Insider College Bowl Guide, available online now free to all season-long FW subscribers and $14.99 for everyone else. The much anticipated publication was released this past Tuesday night and has been a huge hit for us already. Readers have been thrilled with not only the amount of coverage we have provided of the bowl games, but also by the uniqueness of the coverage. We brought back Steve Makinen, formerly of StatFox, to produce the publication and we can t say enough how pleased we, and readers are with the results. Now, back to Issue #17 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this week, besides the next 16 bowl games on tap, we of course cover the NFL action for week 16, and just two regular season weeks remain. There are still plenty of playoff spots and seeding left to be decided. We get you ready for the upcoming playoffs with a statistical look at the resumes of past champions in our NFL Feature Article. Hopefully you can spot some trends that might help you find this year s eventual champion. NFL picks were solid last week, 7-2-1 ATS on consensus plays, and Best Bet leader Jim was 2-1 ATS on his three plays and 6-3-1 ATS overall. He is up to 8-games over.500 for NFL Best Bets, 59%. Combined on college and pro, he continues the standings, 18-games over.500. A $100 bettor would be at +$1450 this season had they rode Jim s coattails. Best of luck this week on all of the great action, and please accept our warmest wishes to you and your families for a wonderful Christmas Holiday. 1 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 ROTATION SCHEDULE Football Weekly COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES COLLEGE BOWL GAMES cont'd NFL WEEK 16 cont'd WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2015 SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2015 SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2015 POINSETTIA BOWL PINSTRIPE BOWL 125 GREEN BAY 49.5 49.5 QUALCOMM STADIUM - SAN DIEGO, CA YANKEE STADIUM - BRONX, NY P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 217 BOISE ST -8-8 231 INDIANA -1.5-2 126 ARIZONA -4.5-4 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC 127 ST LOUIS 42 40.5 218 N ILLINOIS 56 54.5 232 DUKE 66 67 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM GODADDY.COM BOWL INDEPENDENCE BOWL 128 SEATTLE -14-13 LADD - PEEBLES STADIUM MOBILE, AL INDEPENDENCE STADIUM - SHREVEPORT, LA 129 PITTSBURGH -9.5-10 219 GA SOUTHERN 65 66 233 TULSA 62 61.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN P: 2:45PM C: 4:45PM E: 5:45PM ESPN 130 BALTIMORE 47 47 220 BOWLING GREEN -7-7.5 234 RGINIA TECH -14-14 FOSTER FARMS BOWL MONDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2015 NFL WEEK 16 LE'S STADIUM - SANTA CLARA, CA 131 CINCINNATI 42 40.5 THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2015 235 NEBRASKA 60 61 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 101 SAN DIEGO 47 47 P: 6:15PM C: 8:15PM E: 9:15PM ESPN 132 DENVER -3.5-3.5 P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL 236 UCLA -6-6.5 102 OAKLAND -5.5-5 COLLEGE BOWL GAMES cont'd 102 OAKLAND -5.5-5 NFL WEEK 16 cont'd MILITARY BOWL SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2015 NAVY-MARINE CORPS STADIUM - ANNAPOLIS COLLEGE BOWL GAMES cont'd 105 NY GIANTS 45.5 45.5 237 PITTSBURGH 56 54 BAHAMAS BOWL P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM ESPN ROBINSON STADIUM - NASSAU, BAHAMAS 106 MINNESOTA -6.5-6 238 NAVY -3-3.5 221 MIDDLE TENN ST 62.5 62.5 107 CHICAGO 46.5 46 QUICK LANE BOWL P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MI 222 W MICHIGAN -2.5-3 108 TAMPA BAY -2.5-3 239 C MICHIGAN 49.5 49.5 HAWAII BOWL 109 CAROLINA -7-7 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN2 ALOHA STADIUM - HONOLULU, HI P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 240 MINNESOTA -5.5-5 223 CINCINNATI -1-1.5 110 ATLANTA 47.5 47.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 111 DALLAS 44 43 TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2015 224 SAN DIEGO ST 56 57 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ARMED FORCES BOWL 112 BUFFALO -6.5-6 AMON G.CARTER STADIUM - FORT WORTH, TX NFL WEEK 16 cont'd 113 JACKSONLLE 52 52 241 AIR FORCE 63 65.5 SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2015 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN 103 WASHINGTON 48.5 47.5 114 NEW ORLEANS -3-3 242 CALIFORNIA -6-7.5 P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL 115 SAN FRANCISCO 43 43 RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL 104 PHILADELPHIA -3-3 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL - ORLANDO, FL COLLEGE BOWL GAMES cont'd ST.PETERSBURG BOWL 116 DETROIT -7.5-9 243 BAYLOR -2-3 117 CLEVELAND 44 42.5 P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 244 NORTH CAROLINA 69.5 71 118 KANSAS CITY -13-13 ARIZONA BOWL ARIZONA STADIUM - TUCSON, AZ TROPICANA FIELD - ST. PETERSBURG, FL 225 CONNECTICUT 44 44 119 INDIANAPOLIS 43.5 43.5 P: 8:00AM C: 10:00AM E: 11:00AM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 245 NEVADA 56 56 226 MARSHALL -5-4 120 MIAMI -2.5-2.5 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM SUN BOWL 121 NEW ENGLAND -3-3 246 COLORADO ST -3-3 SUN BOWL STADIUM - EL PASO, TX P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM TEXAS BOWL 227 MIAMI 60 62 122 NY JETS 46.5 46 NRG STADIUM - HOUSTON, TX P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM CBS 123 HOUSTON -4.5-4.5 247 TEXAS TECH 71 73.5 228 WASHINGTON ST -2.5-3 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN HEART OF DALLAS BOWL 124 TENNESSEE 39 39 248 LSU -7.5-7 COTTON BOWL - DALLAS, TX 229 SOUTHERN MISS 56 55.5 P: 11:20AM C: 1:20PM E: 2:20PM ESPN 230 WASHINGTON -8.5-8.5 2 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly NFL PICKS Jim 79-69 (53%) 26-18 (59%)* Jason 78-70 (53%) 25-18 (58%)* Doug 85-63 (57%) 25-19 (57%)* Power 76-72 (51%) Effective Strength 77-69 (53%) Forecaster 69-79 (47%) Thursday, December 24, 2015 - (101) SAN DIEGO at (102) OAKLAND (-5) San Diego* Oakland San Diego San Diego Oakland San Diego Bettors 76-72 (51%) Oakland Thursday, December 24, 2015 - (101) SAN DIEGO at (102) OAKLAND - TOTAL (47) Consensus 82-66 (55%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) San Diego OVER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER Saturday, December 26, 2015 - (103) WASHINGTON at (104) PHILADELPHIA (-3) Washington* Philadelphia Washington Washington Washington Washington Philadelphia Washington Saturday, December 26, 2015 - (103) WASHINGTON at (104) PHILADELPHIA - TOTAL (47.5) UNDER UNDER UNDER* OVER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER Sunday, December 27, 2015 - (105) NY GIANTS at (106) MINNESOTA (-6) NY Giants Minnesota* Minnesota* NY Giants NY Giants NY Giants NY Giants NY Giants Sunday, December 27, 2015 - (105) NY GIANTS at (106) MINNESOTA - TOTAL (45.5) UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER Sunday, December 27, 2015 - (107) CHICAGO at (108) TAMPA BAY (-3) Tampa Bay Chicago* Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago Sunday, December 27, 2015 - (107) CHICAGO at (108) TAMPA BAY - TOTAL (46) OVER* UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER Sunday, December 27, 2015 - (121) NEW ENGLAND at (122) NY JETS (+3) NY Jets New England* New England* NY Jets New England NY Jets New England New England Sunday, December 27, 2015 - (121) NEW ENGLAND at (122) NY JETS - TOTAL (46) UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER Jim says Washington & Philadelphia go head-to-head on Saturday night and a probable division title is on the line. If Washington wins, it is the NFC East champ, if Philly wins, things get interesting. Why would things get interesting though, as only one team in this division seems to be getting its stuff together enough to be worthy of a division crown. That team is the Redskins. While not spectacular, they have been at least competent, getting solid defensive efforts and great play from quarterback Kirk Cousins. At the same time, the Eagles fooled everybody in back-to-back weeks by winning turnover laden games against Buffalo & New England only to fall back on their face and show their true colors against Arizona. The Eagles are just not a playoff team, and oddsmakers are treating them as such, putting them as chalk here. Dog wins this one. Jason says The last two weeks of the regular season are big games for teams in their postseason preparations, especially when the tune-up games are against potential playoff opponents. There is an outside chance that the Patriots and Jets could meet in the postseason, and typically the Jets have been one of the Patriots toughest outs in recent years. The Jets front four seems to have an edge on New England s line. That advantage is a big reason why the Jets own a 4-0-1 ATS edge in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams. That said, New York played about as good as it could of in the week 7 matchup between these teams and still lost. The Patriots gained only 16 yards on the ground and still scored 30 points. I don t think the Jets can play that well again and will therefore lose a key game. Take New England. Doug says The New York Giants have had more chances to prove themselves than anyone named Jenner happening to have their picture taken. New York has held leads or been tied in the fourth quarter six times and found a way to end up on the short end of the scoreboard each time. Having the worst pass defense in the NFL really shows up late in games when opposing teams have to throw. Next up is a trip to Minnesota, who has put away teams late in games more often than not. Not having to face what looks to be a now a volatile Odell the headhunter Beckham Jr., who is suspended for this game, only makes the Vikings job that much easier. Minny by 9. SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 3

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 4 NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN For every issue of the Football Weekly this season, we ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week s breakdowns, in rotation number order. THURSDAY, DEC. 24 (101) SAN DIEGO at (102) OAKLAND With Oakland s earlier 37-29 upset win at San Diego in October, this has become a dog-gone easy series to predict. Like in underdog, with three straight covers and 12-1 ATS mark since 2009. This has mostly been the Raiders, who are 10-3 ATS over this period. The visitor has taken the last two, after losing three straight, and covering five in a row before that. SATURDAY, DEC. 26 (103) WASHINGTON at (104) PHILADELPHIA A huge game in the mediocre NFC East, but somebody has to win it. Washington has placed themselves in strong position by virtue of earlier victory in October and is 4-2-1 ATS in last seven. This made the underdog 3-1-1 ATS after five consecutive spread losses. However, the home team is on 3-0-1 spread spin and is 5-2-1 ATS in last eight. Total has been even. SUNDAY, DEC. 27 (105) N.Y. GIANTS at (106) MINNESOTA After playing almost every year from 2001 to 2010, this is just the second meeting since then for these NFC combatants. Both will have quite a bit on the line and the best way to bet this matchup is pick the SU winner since 1994, because they are sensational 15-1 ATS (2008 lone defeat). New York is 3-1 ATS and 6-3 ATS in past nine, with the favorite 3-0 ATS and the Under 5-2. (107) CHICAGO at (108) TAMPA BAY The Bears have been spread winners in the last two meetings with Tampa Bay, but are 3-4 ATS since realignment in 2002. These teams used to be division partners in the NFC Central and they have played lower scoring battles, with the Under 6-2 going back to Dec. 2001. The favorite/underdog has been on series of mini-runs (2 or 3) since 2000, with the favorite taking last two. (109) CAROLINA at (110) ATLANTA Not sure if Carolina will play all regulars or have them out on the field for entire game, but if Atlanta is not ready to play, they have no pride. The Falcons have been outscored 72-3 in past two contests with Panthers and are 1-6 ATS the last four seasons. Maybe being at home will help Atlanta with visitor 1-5 ATS. The Under is on a 5-0 roll. (111) DALLAS at (112) BUFFALO Just the fifth contest since 1995, after playing three times in 364 days, bookended by Super Bowls in 1993-94. Skip the Big Games and Buffalo is 3-1-1 ATS, but from historical perspective, that s impossible. The home team is 3-1 and 3-0-1 ATS in last four gatherings. In all, Dallas has been favored in all seven contests looking back to 93 and is 3-3-1 ATS. The Under is 4-3. (113) JACKSONLLE at (114) NEW ORLEANS Too bad these clubs are in opposite conferences, because by proximity, this could be rivalry. Only the sixth skirmish with New Orleans 3-2 and 4-1 ATS. The favored squad is 4-1 ATS, with home team 3-2 against the number. The total has been alternating from the start with the Under the correct choice in odd-numbered matchups. Will this continue in Game No.6? (115) SAN FRANCISCO at (116) DETROIT First tussle in three seasons for these NFC squads, which has been one-sided. San Francisco has won nine in a row and is 6-1-2 ATS in that span. Detroit s last victory was 1995, 27-24 as 12-point home underdogs, with QB Scott Mitchell at the helm. (Win a bar bet with that one) The last contest was a Push for the total, but prior to that the Under was 8-0. (117) CLEVELAND at (118) KANSAS CITY Kansas City looks to continue its playoff push at home against Cleveland. This has been an off and on AFC affair and it seems surprising for some reason the Browns have covered four of five the last decade with three victories. Going back to 1996, the home team has always been favored and it has been split four home/favorites or four road/underdogs. (119) INDIANAPOLIS at (120) MIAMI Another confrontation of teams who have seen all that much of each other since going separate ways when NFL went to eight divisions. This game will break the spread deadlock since Indianapolis was removed from the AFC East, being 4-2 and 3-3 ATS. This for a long time has been about the underdog and road club at 10-3 ATS and 10-2-1 ATS respectively. The Over has cashed six of past eight. (121) NEW ENGLAND at (122) N.Y. JETS For all New England s success, it s been six games since they beat the spread versus the Jets. That s correct, they are 0-4-1 ATS against Gang Green. The Patriots dropped all of those as favorites and since Nov. of 2011, the underdog is 6-1-1 against the oddsmakers. The first battle the Pats won 30-23, going past the total of 47 and the Over is 10-2 in almost seven seasons. (123) HOUSTON at (124) TENNESSEE The Texans are trying to hunt down a division crown and have division matchup. Houston has won seven of nine against Tennessee and is 8-1 ATS recently. They have been mostly giving points which is why the favorite is 5-2 ATS in many of those contests. No edge in last 10 home/road scenarios, with the total coming in a solid 7-3 to the higher score of oddsmakers release. (125) GREEN BAY at (126) ARIZONA First connection in three years and it might not be the last for this season. Green Bay is 5-2 ATS dating back 15 years and this will be the third rime they will be road underdogs. The home club has the same record as the Pack at 5-2 versus the spread, with the underdog holding a slight edge at 4-3 ATS. Three of the past four are Over s and 4-3 overall in aforementioned time span. (127) ST. LOUIS at (128) SEATTLE From both spread and conventional winning the game perspective, St. Louis has been a headache for Seattle in recent years. The Rams are 5-2 ATS the last four seasons with three outright victories (all THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly at home). However, St. Louis has not had a good experience in the Northwest with 0-10 and 2-8 ATS records. In the last 11 battles, the dog is 8-3 ATS and the Under is also 8-3. (129) PITTSBURGH at (130) BALTIMORE The Ravens are down this year, but that does not mean they will not give their best effort against Pittsburgh. With how competitive these teams have been over the years, this will mark the seventh time in nine years no team will have a spread sweep. This could be just the second time in 14 rugged encounters the point spread would be larger than three. MONDAY, DEC. 28 (131) CINCINNATI at (132) DENVER A two-seed and bye in the playoffs are expected to be on the line for this AFC affair. The SU winner has beat the number in the last four and these two have alternated spread winners in the past five games, with the odd numbers favoring Cincinnati. It could be Denver s turn, yet the visitor is on 5-2 ATS move and the pooch is a friendly 7-2 ATS. The Over is 3-0. NFL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS TEAMS TO PLAY ON 25.4% ROI (121) NEW ENGLAND AT (122) NY JETS NEW ENGLAND is 31-16-1 ATS(L48G) on ROAD - VS AFC- EAST ( $1340 Profit with a 25.4% ROI ) TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST 45.1% ROI (101) SAN DIEGO AT (102) OAKLAND OAKLAND is 6-19 ATS(L25G) at HOME - As favorite ( $1240 Profit with a 45.1% ROI ) 26.0% ROI (125) GREEN BAY AT (126) ARIZONA ARIZONA is 33-17 ATS(L50G) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per point(cs) ( $1430 Profit with a 26.0% ROI ) 49.1% ROI (113) JACKSONLLE AT (114) NEW ORLEANS JACKSONLLE is 5-19-1 ATS(L25G) - Non-conference games ( $1350 Profit with a 49.1% ROI ) 28.0% ROI GAMES TO PLAY OVER 37.5% ROI (127) ST LOUIS AT (128) SEATTLE SEATTLE is 33-16-1 ATS(L50G) at HOME - As favorite ( $1540 Profit with a 28.0% ROI ) (101) SAN DIEGO AT (102) OAKLAND SAN DIEGO is 18-7 OVER(L25G) on ROAD - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5 PPG(CS) ( $1030 Profit with a 37.5% ROI ) 52.7% ROI GAMES TO PLAY UNDER 33.8% ROI (127) ST LOUIS AT (128) SEATTLE ST LOUIS is 5-20 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(cs) ( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI ) (105) NY GIANTS AT (106) MINNESOTA MINNESOTA is 17-7-1 UNDER(L25G) - All Games ( $930 Profit with a 33.8% ROI ) 52.7% ROI (115) SAN FRANCISCO AT (116) DETROIT DETROIT is 16-4 OVER(L20G) at HOME - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25 yards per attempt(cs) ( $1160 Profit with a 52.7% ROI ) 52.7% ROI (109) CAROLINA AT (110) ATLANTA ATLANTA is 20-5 UNDER(L25G) - OU line of 45 or more ( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI ) 49.4% ROI (125) GREEN BAY AT (126) ARIZONA GREEN BAY is 18-5 OVER(L23G) on ROAD - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(cs) ( $1250 Profit with a 49.4% ROI ) 45.5% ROI (127) ST LOUIS AT (128) SEATTLE ST LOUIS is 16-5 UNDER(L21G) on ROAD - AS double digit underdog ( $1050 Profit with a 45.5% ROI ) SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 5

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly SUPER BOWL FUTURES BETS - KNOW THESE IMPORTANT STATS Only three times in the last ten years has a top seed won the Super Bowl. This was going to happen no matter what since No. 1 seeds New Orleans and Indianapolis met in SB XLIV, Seattle and Denver got together in 2014, and Seattle and New England squared off last February. Now while three out of 10 doesn t seem like a good percentage overall, the fact that the last two Super Bowls have pitted top seeds against one another might represent a changing trend, one that recalls the NFL title games of the 90 s. Since then however, the NFL has been ruled by unpredictability, a trait that contributed a lot to its worldly popularity. The changing landscape of teams capable of winning the Lombardi Trophy differs from any other major sport. That s not to say that #1 seeds are worthless in playoff football, just that they are not automatic options like they used to be. In fact, eight top seeds have actually lost in the Super Bowl in that span, most often to a team that built momentum and was playing its best football late in the season. That said, bettors looking at futures wagers trying to pick a champion, or other perhaps just with a passing interest in which team has the best shot to win it all may choose to look at stats to figure it out. In our experience, simple team strength is the best way to do this, as it is almost impossible to weigh the value of momentum or confidence in sports. The Effective Strength Indicators that we offer in the Football Weekly are very popular among oddsmakers and handicapping experts when it comes to gauging team strength. On the chart following this article you ll find the Effective Strength Indicators and the NFL rank for all of the teams that made the postseason in each year since 08. Along with that, we listed their playoff accomplishments. The teams are listed in their combined rank order for that season. Some of the highlights of the charts: Baltimore in the 2013 playoffs. The Ravens had a combined rank of 9.0, making them the 8th best in the NFL that season. If we make that the cutoff for a team being unable to win it this season, everyone from Green Bay down should not be considered, including Minnesota, Atlanta, and the eventual champions from the NFC East and AFC South divisions. The Average Combined Rank in the last seven seasons by Super Bowl Champions is 4.5, meaning Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati are the only real credible threats to capture the Lombardi Trophy in Santa Clara in February. Of course, with two weeks left in the regular season, teams like Kansas City, New England, Seattle, and Pittsburgh are right on the cusp of that benchmark and could move up into that grouping. The most important of the three Effective Strength Indicators has proven to be simple scoring, and not yards, nor yards per point. The average ranking in this indicator of recent Super Bowl champs is 3.9. Carolina is the top team in Effective Scoring this season, followed by Arizona, New England, and Cincinnati. Of the Super Bowl losing teams, only one, Arizona in the 2008-09 season, had a combined rank of less than sixth. One unique observation in looking at the lowest ranked teams to qualify for a postseason spot over the last eight seasons Of the five teams that qualified for the postseason with a combined rank of 22nd or worse, FOUR OF FIVE won their first playoff games outright while going 3-1-1 ATS. That trend includes Carolina, who knocked off Arizona in the Wildcard Round a year ago. That could be a good sign for Houston or Indianapolis, whomever captures the AFC South crown. The recent hot trend seems to surround Yards Per Point Effective Strength Indication. Last year New England was the league s best team in that category. In five of the last seven years the eventual champion was a top 4 ranked team in Eff YPPT, which an average ranking of 4.0 for the last seven champs. Teams meeting that criteria in 2015 are Cincinnati, Kansas City, Carolina, and Green Bay. Currently, there is no team with a Eff YPP indicator of 1.00 or greater. If it finishes that way it would be just the second time in the last eight year that has been the case. Interestingly, in that season, the Giants were a surprise champion, upending undefeated New England in the Super Bowl. 6 Only once in the last five seasons did the team with the best combined rank in Effective Strength Indicators win the Super Bowl. That number over the last seven seasons is three, unofficially giving Carolina, this year s top team after Week 15, about a 43% chance to win it in 2016. The Panthers were 24th a year ago and 4th in 2013 but lost in the divisional round both times. The lowest rated Super Bowl Champion was So while these strength indicators are a good way to measure overall team strength, the charts prove that there is certainly much more to it than that. Therefore, let s get back to why things have changed in the NFL and what other factors you might want to consider when analyzing your potential futures wagers. Because of the salary cap and player movement, it is challenging to build a true THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly dynasty these days, thus we have witnessed lower seeded teams winning Super Bowls and the talk of where recent champions would fit in as all-time teams is a non-discussion. There are virtually no complete teams anymore, as coaches instead focusing on being dominant in a few areas and at least average in the rest. In today s game, you need an elite quarterback. The days of a game managing quarterback like Brad Johnson (2003) or Trent Dilfer (2001) leading a team to a championship seem long ago. Besides a top flight field general, a new statistic is back in vogue and getting more attention, the sack. Because of multiple receiver sets, the quarterback is getting rid the football quicker than ever, making the ability to rush the passer more important than ever. A look at the top 12 teams in sacks finds these clubs in the playoff hunt: Denver, New England, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Houston, NY Jets, and Seattle. You still have to be proficient in other areas, which is why Tennessee, Oakland, and the Rams rank high, but have not enjoyed the same success. Let s look back at the teams in recent years that won Super Bowls or played in the conference championships. Last season, New England edged Seattle in Arizona in a great finish. The Patriots of course had a great quarterback in Tom Brady, and were among the top teams in sacks. What they lacked in an overpowering rushing attack, they made up for in a controlled passing game. They might not have even been the more physically talented team in the matchup with the Seahawks, but their defense was able to make a big play late and bring home the title. In 2014, Seattle crushed Denver in New Orleans. Both ranked in the top 10 in sacks, and supposedly, the Broncos should have enjoyed a significant quarterbacking advantage in the game, with Peyton Manning holding the edge over Wilson. However, Seattle s defensive speed and game plan was too much for the Broncos offense to handle. The Seahawks also got key plays on special teams as well. and neither had a quarterback known for postseason success prior to that, although the Ravens Joe Flacco had won several games in earlier rounds of the playoffs before. In 2012, the New York Giants took home the hardware for the fourth time since 1987. The defense line basically consisted of four defensive ends, all skilled pass rushers and they were tied for 3rd with Baltimore (48 sacks), who was a short field goal miss away from meeting the Giants. New England was slightly above average with 40 QB takedowns and San Francisco had 42. Interestingly, the last two times the Giants won the Super Bowl, their combined rank in our categories was 7.7 ( 12) and 11.3 ( 08). Only Baltimore s 2013 rank is similar (9.0) for a champion over the last seven years. The other four were all 3.7 or less. In 2011, Pittsburgh and Green Bay fought for the Super Bowl in chilly Dallas. The Packers ended up winning the game the Steelers and Packers were No. 1 and No. 2 in sacks that season. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was the hottest passer in the NFL that season. The wettest Big Game was in Miami in 2009 and was a bit of anomaly, as this was a huge year for offense with New Orleans and Indianapolis leading the way. The Saints were 13th in sacks and the Colts were tied for 16th. This could have been changed since Minnesota lost in OT on the road in New Orleans and they led the NFL that season with 48. Pittsburgh was the second-best sack-meisters in 2008, winning the big prize for a sixth time. And for the 2007 campaign, the G-Men were the sack leaders and New England was second and they played in an unforgettable Super Bowl. Analyze the charts yourself over the next couple of weeks to determine if you can t uncover some hidden angles which might predict this year s playoff results. However, be sure to keep in mind that these type of strength ratings can move from week to week based upon actual results and several strong or poor performances in a row can significantly alter a team s position. In 2013, Baltimore edged San Francisco in New Orleans. Neither ranked in the top 13 in sacks 7 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFL STRENGTH INDICATORS 2008-2015 2008-09 SEASON 2012-13 SEASON NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk 1 PITTSBURGH SB CHAMP 9.6 1 1.09 1 9.02 1 1 1 SEATTLE DIV LOSER 10.6 2 0.72 3 5.6 2 2.3 2 PHILADELPHIA NFC LOSER 7.2 4 0.8 2 7.86 4 3.3 2 SAN FRANCISCO SB LOSER 7.5 4 1.39 1 3.73 6 3.7 3 TENNESSEE DIV LOSER 7.5 3 0.51 9 8.2 3 5 3 NEW ENGLAND AFC LOSER 14.6 1-0.07 16 5.61 1 6 4 NY GIANTS DIV LOSER 7.1 5 0.64 5 7.57 5 5 4 DENVER DIV LOSER 8.1 3 0.86 2 1.45 14 6.3 5 BALTIMORE AFC LOSER 8.3 2 0.36 12 8.55 2 5.3 5 GREEN BAY DIV LOSER 5.8 8 0.32 8 2.7 7 7.7 6 INDIANAPOLIS WC LOSER 4.8 6 0.58 7 4.93 7 6.7 8 BALTIMORE SB CHAMP 3.7 11 0.36 7 2.26 9 9 7 SAN DIEGO DIV LOSER 3.9 7 0.63 6 4.83 8 7 9 WASHINGTON WC LOSER 3.4 12 0.41 6 1.64 11 9.7 8 CAROLINA DIV LOSER 2.7 9 0.71 4 3.68 9 7.3 10 CINCINNATI WC LOSER 4.4 10 0.21 12 2.35 8 10 10 MINNESOTA WC LOSER 1.5 11 0.19 13 2.27 12 12 11 HOUSTON DIV LOSER 5.5 9 0.24 10 1.64 12 10.3 13 ARIZONA SB LOSER 0.4 15 0.52 8 1.35 17 13.3 12 MINNESOTA WC LOSER 2.5 13 0.31 9 2.12 10 10.7 15 ATLANTA WC LOSER 1.6 10-0.21 22 3 11 14.3 13 ATLANTA NFC LOSER 6.4 7-0.32 25 5.21 3 11.7 20 MIAMI WC LOSER -0.9 19 0.15 16 0.31 19 18 25 INDIANAPOLIS WC LOSER -3.3 22-0.99 32-1.18 19 24.3 2009-10 SEASON 2013-14 SEASON NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk 1 NEW ORLEANS SB CHAMP 11.1 1 0.57 9 11.8 1 3.7 1 SEATTLE SB CHAMP 10.9 2 1.20 1 4.80 4 2.3 2 NEW ENGLAND WC LOSER 8.7 2 0.62 7 8.5 3 4 2 SAN FRANCISCO NFC LOSER 8.3 4 0.41 6 4.97 3 4.3 3 INDIANAPOLIS SB LOSER 6 4 0.77 3 6.69 7 4.7 3 DENVER SB LOSER 10.9 1 0.69 3 1.89 10 4.7 4 BALTIMORE DIV LOSER 5.9 6 0.72 4 7.1 5 5 4 CAROLINA DIV LOSER 8.5 3 0.06 10 6.01 2 5.0 5 MINNESOTA NFC LOSER 7.7 3 0.33 12 9.26 2 5.7 5 CINCINNATI WC LOSER 6.3 7 0.40 7 2.04 9 7.7 6 GREEN BAY WC LOSER 5.5 7 0.58 8 7.6 4 6.3 6 NEW ORLEANS DIV LOSER 6.4 6 0.62 4 0.14 16 8.7 7 NY JETS AFC LOSER 6 5 0.68 6 6.33 8 6.3 7 PHILADELPHIA WC LOSER 2.8 11 0.88 2 1.17 14 9.0 8 DALLAS DIV LOSER 5.4 8 0.95 2 5.87 9 6.3 8 NEW ENGLAND AFC LOSER 5.6 8-0.01 15 3.03 6 9.7 9 PHILADELPHIA WC LOSER 4.1 10 1.01 1 4.67 10 7 11 KANSAS CITY WC LOSER 7.4 5-0.42 28 7.44 1 11.3 10 SAN DIEGO DIV LOSER 5 9 0.44 11 6.72 6 8.7 13 INDIANAPOLIS DIV LOSER 2.8 10-0.26 22 2.41 7 13.0 17 CINCINNATI WC LOSER 0.1 16-0.04 19 0.58 16 17 16 SAN DIEGO DIV LOSER 2.7 12-0.37 25 1.19 13 16.7 18 ARIZONA DIV LOSER -1 19 0.04 17 0.51 17 17.7 20 GREEN BAY WC LOSER -2.0 20-0.01 16-1.81 24 20.0 2010-11 SEASON 2013-14 SEASON NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk 1 PITTSBURGH SB LOSER 9 3 1.16 1 8.83 3 2.3 1 GREEN BAY NFC LOSER 8.9 2 0.86 3 3.31 4 3.0 2 NEW ENGLAND DIV LOSER 12.7 1 0.53 6 12.9 1 2.7 3 SEATTLE SB LOSER 8.7 4 1.34 1 1.43 10 5.0 3 GREEN BAY SB CHAMP 10.3 2 0.82 4 10.5 2 2.7 4 NEW ENGLAND SB CHAMP 10.0 1 0.06 14 5.01 1 5.3 5 NY JETS AFC LOSER 5.2 4 0.63 5 4.81 7 5.3 5 BALTIMORE DIV LOSER 5.3 6 0.18 8 3.05 5 6.3 6 PHILADELPHIA WC LOSER 3.5 7 1.03 3 4.08 8 6 6 DENVER DIV LOSER 8.7 3 1.29 2 0.35 16 7.0 7 BALTIMORE DIV LOSER 5 5 0.1 14 5.9 4 7.7 7 DALLAS DIV LOSER 6.0 5 0.07 13 2.89 6 8.0 8 CHICAGO NFC LOSER 3.2 9 0.25 10 3.49 9 9.3 9 INDIANAPOLIS AFC LOSER 4.7 9 0.26 5 0.52 13 9.0 10 INDIANAPOLIS WC LOSER 1.8 10 0.16 12 2.79 11 11 12 DETROIT WC LOSER 1.4 14 0.21 6-0.41 20 13.3 11 NEW ORLEANS WC LOSER 0.5 13-0.05 16 2.86 10 13 14 CINCINNATI WC LOSER 1.0 16 0.05 15 1.39 11 14.0 12 ATLANTA DIV LOSER 4.5 6-0.78 28 5.67 6 13.3 15 ARIZONA WC LOSER 1.8 13-0.58 28 3.71 3 14.7 20 KANSAS CITY WC LOSER -2.5 18-0.24 24-0.16 17 19.7 17 PITTSBURGH WC LOSER 2.7 11-0.07 18-0.13 18 15.7 29 SEATTLE DIV LOSER -9.4 29-0.82 29-7.12 28 28.7 24 CAROLINA DIV LOSER -2.5 23-0.27 24-2.05 24 23.7 2011-12 SEASON 2015-16 SEASON NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk 1 NEW ORLEANS DIV LOSER 10.5 1 0.57 5 11.6 1 2.3 1 CAROLINA? 11.8 1 0.64 4 4.52 3 2.7 2 GREEN BAY DIV LOSER 9.7 2 0.22 9 10.5 2 4.3 2 ARIZONA? 11.6 2 0.81 3 3.17 7 4.0 3 HOUSTON DIV LOSER 4 6 0.7 3 5.67 6 5 3 CINCINNATI? 9.7 4 0.50 8 5.74 1 4.3 4 NEW ENGLAND SB LOSER 9.4 3 0.15 10 10.4 3 5.3 4 KANSAS CITY? 8.2 5 0.57 7 5.24 2 4.7 5 BALTIMORE AFC LOSER 5.3 5 0.45 6 6.27 5 5.3 5 NEW ENGLAND? 11.1 3 0.61 6 3.78 5 4.7 7 PITTSBURGH WC LOSER 3.2 10 0.99 1 4.79 7 6 6 SEATTLE? 8.1 6 0.93 1 2.59 9 5.3 8 SAN FRANCISCO NFC LOSER 8 4 0.13 12 8.61 4 6.7 7 PITTSBURGH? 7.1 7 0.62 5 3.27 6 6.0 9 NY GIANTS SB CHAMP 3.5 9 0.61 4 3.26 10 7.7 8 DENVER? 4.3 9 0.84 2-0.08 15 8.7 10 DETROIT WC LOSER 3.8 8 0.37 7 4.35 9 8 9 NY JETS? 3.4 10 0.08 12 0.77 11 11.0 12 ATLANTA WC LOSER 1.8 11-0.05 18 2.16 11 13.3 10 GREEN BAY? 5.4 8-0.24 22 4.13 4 11.3 21 CINCINNATI WC LOSER -1.6 18-0.25 24-0.39 19 20.3 12 MINNESOTA? 2.0 11-0.08 15 2.52 10 12.0 26 DENVER DIV LOSER -6.6 27-0.47 26-5.99 27 26.7 15 NY GIANTS? 0.9 13-0.55 28 2.78 8 16.3 16 JACKSONLLE? -4.2 22 0.04 14-1.50 20 18.7 EffStr - Effective Strength Indicator 17 ATLANTA? -2.0 16-0.18 19-2.12 21 18.7 Pts - Points 18 PHILADELPHIA? -2.6 18-0.31 23-0.27 16 19.0 YPP - Yards Per Play 19 WASHINGTON? -1.7 15-0.61 29 0.20 14 19.3 YPPT - Yards Per Point 24 HOUSTON? -2.1 17-0.32 24-2.92 25 22.0 28 INDIANAPOLIS? -6.0 29-0.83 32-1.30 19 26.7 8 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly NFL STRENGTH Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power columns RATINGS are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) quantify a team s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors (Bettors Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total. BRD Power Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 101 SAN DIEGO 47 20 20.4 20.9 20.6 102 OAKLAND -5 22-4.1 25.7 25.0 26.7 103 WASHINGTON 47.5 22 23.4 24.8 19.3 104 PHILADELPHIA -3 23-2.6 24.9 24.9 25.0 105 NY GIANTS 45.5 23 21.5 21.8 21.4 106 MINNESOTA -6 24-3.5 25.1 23.6 23.5 107 CHICAGO 46 20 23.5 23.7 24.3 108 TAMPA BAY -3 21-3.1 24.3 23.3 24.3 109 CAROLINA -7 31 29.0 24.5 23.9 110 ATLANTA 47.5 21 7.5 17.7 19.6 20.4 111 DALLAS 43 25 16.0 15.9 UNDER 19.5 112 BUFFALO -6 23-5.5 25.1 22.5 21.1 113 JACKSONLLE 52 20 25.0 23.1 23.7 114 NEW ORLEANS -3 21-3.5 27.6 29.4 28.9 115 SAN FRANCISCO 43 18 18.0 16.4 18.1 116 DETROIT -9 22-6.6 24.7 25.4 24.6 117 CLEVELAND 42.5 19 13.7 16.7 16.7 118 KANSAS CITY -12.5 28-12.1 33.0 KAN 27.7 27.1 119 INDIANAPOLIS 43.5 22 20.4 21.7 22.3 120 MIAMI -2.5 19-2.4 23.8 22.2 22.5 121 NEW ENGLAND -3 30 27.1 24.2 25.7 122 NY JETS 46 26 1.8 21.4 23.4 22.7 123 HOUSTON -4.5 22 22.8 22.5 21.1 124 TENNESSEE 39 19 4.5 16.5 17.3 16.5 125 GREEN BAY 49.5 28 20.2 21.1 22.1 126 ARIZONA -4 30-4.6 29.0 ARI 26.3 27.7 127 ST LOUIS 40.5 21 13.4 15.3 14.1 128 SEATTLE -13 30-12.3 27.5 25.1 26.4 129 PITTSBURGH -10 29 30.1 PIT 27.9 28.5 130 BALTIMORE 47 21 9.3 15.2 17.9 18.4 131 CINCINNATI 40.5 29 19.8 CIN 17.2 18.9 132 DENVER -3.5 27-2.4 18.7 19.9 21.7 9 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 NFL MATCHUPS Football Weekly (101) SAN DIEGO [SU:4-10 ATS:6-8] AT (102) OAKLAND (-5 47) [SU:6-8 ATS:7-7] DECEMBER 24, 2015 8:25 PM on NFL - O.CO COLISEUM (OAKLAND, CA) Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics SAN DIEGO 20.0 22 24-84 [3.5] 42-28-294 [7.0] 18.9 24.9 19 26-121 [4.7] 31-20-237 [7.5] 14.4-8 -4.9 OAKLAND 22.8 19 24-93 [3.9] 38-23-253 [6.6] 15.2 25.4 22 24-101 [4.1] 40-26-266 [6.6] 14.4 0-2.6 For the 13th consecutive time, Oakland will not have a winning season but they can still reach.500 which would another building block after 3-13 campaign. The Raiders have lost four of six largely due to inconsistency on both offense and defense, but they have enjoyed taking on San Diego with recent 10-3 ATS record. As usual, it s Philip Rivers who helped San Diego win for just the second time in 10 games (4-6 ATS) and it will be up to him in Oakland, with the plethora of injuries the Chargers have suffered. San Diego will try and expose the Raiders 28th ranked pass defense. Though it s a division game, motivation on Christmas Eve night has to be factor. SAN DIEGO is 6-1 ATS(L3Y) - Less than 6 days rest OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS(L10G) at HOME - OU line of 45 or more OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards per play(cs) (103) WASHINGTON [SU:7-7 ATS:7-7] AT (104) PHILADELPHIA (-3 47.5) [SU:6-8 ATS:6-8] DECEMBER 26, 2015 8:25 PM on NFL - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA) WASHINGTON 22.6 19 26-97 [3.7] 34-24-247 [7.1] 15.2 23.7 20 27-130 [4.9] 33-20-240 [7.3] 15.6-1 -1.1 PHILADELPHIA 22.7 21 29-112 [3.9] 38-24-244 [6.5] 15.7 25.9 22 30-134 [4.5] 39-24-259 [6.7] 15.2-2 -3.2 This is the best Washington could hope for with this contest, winning and they are astonishing division champions for the second time four years. The Redskins might not be winning because of Kirk Cousins, but they certainly can win with him. Cousins with DeSean Jackson back has a lot of weapons and credit to coach Jay Gruden for sticking with the run game when could have given up on it. If Philadelphia wins its final two division games, they take the NFC East crown but have to find quick solution for 30th ranked run defense. Sam Bradford is improved, but Eagles still look very unstable. Philly is 21-8 ATS off a 21 or more points loss, Backing them as favorites, Yikes! WASHINGTON is 8-3 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) PHILADELPHIA is 0-7-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Less than 6 days rest WASHINGTON is 7-1 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Less than 6 days rest (105) NY GIANTS [SU:6-8 ATS:8-4-2] AT (106) MINNESOTA (-6.5 45.5) [SU:9-5 ATS:11-3] DECEMBER 27, 2015 8:30 PM on NBC - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN) NY GIANTS 26.6 20 25-94 [3.8] 39-25-270 [6.9] 13.7 25.6 23 27-114 [4.2] 41-27-309 [7.5] 16.5 +9 +1.0 MINNESOTA 21.1 19 29-132 [4.5] 29-19-192 [6.6] 15.4 19.4 20 26-113 [4.3] 34-22-229 [6.7] 17.6 +2 +1.7 This shifted Sunday night game might have meaning to just one team. Pending Washington s result, New York may or may not have something to play for. Somehow you knew the Giants would compete with Carolina, but at this point of the season, you cannot hide the league s worst pass defense. New York is almost three first downs poorer than No.31 Pittsburgh (28.7 yards) and with coach Mike Zimmer trusting Teddy Bridgewater to throw more, New York could be in trouble. The Vikings just have to maintain focus, even if outcomes does not dictate if they can win NFC Central. Minnesota does not want to go to Green Bay off a loss and can definitely control the G-Men. MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per attempt(cs) NY GIANTS is 3-7 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards per point(cs) MINNESOTA is 8-1-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards per play(cs) 10 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly NFL MATCHUPS (107) CHICAGO [SU:5-9 ATS:7-7] AT (108) TAMPA BAY (-3 46) [SU:6-8 ATS:7-7] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on FOX - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL) CHICAGO 20.6 20 29-112 [3.9] 34-21-234 [6.9] 16.8 25.1 19 28-126 [4.6] 32-20-216 [6.8] 13.6-4 -4.5 TAMPA BAY 22.2 21 29-141 [4.9] 33-19-233 [7.1] 16.8 25.2 22 28-94 [3.3] 35-24-245 [7.0] 13.5-1 -3.0 You can go along most of the year showing improvement as a team, but when later in the season is when everyone finds out if you are contender or pretender. Chicago was playing better than most presumed, but is heading south in a hurry at 0-3 SU and ATS and is in usual late season freefall at 14-31 ATS the last quarter of season on the road. Tampa Bay is getting better in spite of losing three of four and can still finish.500, if they stop making mistakes like youthful football teams do. With the Bears run defense allowing 139.2 YPG in L5, the Buccaneers are 10-1 ATS when they rush for 125 or more yards. CHICAGO is 10-0 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Before playing DETROIT TAMPA BAY is 2-7 ATS(L2Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per play(cs) TAMPA BAY is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(cs) (109) CAROLINA (-7 47.5) [SU:14-0 ATS:10-4] AT (110) ATLANTA [SU:7-7 ATS:5-9] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on FOX - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA) CAROLINA 32.1 23 34-144 [4.3] 32-19-230 [7.2] 11.7 19.9 18 22-90 [4.0] 41-24-225 [5.5] 15.8 +19 +12.2 ATLANTA 21.6 22 26-103 [4.0] 40-26-268 [6.8] 17.2 22.3 21 27-103 [3.9] 35-23-246 [7.1] 15.7-6 -0.7 Coach Ron Rivera has maintained resting players is bad for playoff teams and besides, he s made sure the Carolina players know they still have not wrapped up top seed. They do that with win at Atlanta, but cannot be drawn into chippiness that will likely again happen on the road for unbeaten squad. The Panthers take care of business by running the ball and maintaining top spot in NFL in yards per point category. The Falcons finally ended long losing streak at six and unfathomable 0-9 ATS train wreck. Not sure Atlanta s early season confidence is restored but a victory allows everyone to exhale. Can Atlanta end 0-6 ATS mark versus rushing teams averaging 130 more yards a game? CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(cs) ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS(L10G) - All Games ATLANTA is 10-0 UNDER(L10G) - All Games (111) DALLAS [SU:4-10 ATS:4-9-1] AT (112) BUFFALO (-6 43.5) [SU:6-8 ATS:6-7-1] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on FOX - RALPH WILSON STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY) DALLAS 17.6 19 26-119 [4.5] 32-21-205 [6.4] 18.4 23.1 20 27-111 [4.0] 33-21-227 [6.9] 14.6-18 -5.5 BUFFALO 24.4 19 30-149 [4.9] 30-19-213 [7.1] 14.8 24.0 21 25-106 [4.2] 38-23-258 [6.7] 15.2 +4 +0.4 Fitting contest for two of the biggest underachievers of the season. Dallas has excuse of no Tony Romo, but even Jerry Jones figured out his quarterback is not a savior. The Cowboys are turning reins over to Kellen Moore in hopes to determine if he is adequate backup or just third-stringer in case of emergency. Though Dallas has a solid road record, they are 15-29 ATS away off a nonconference contest. Power ratings supported Buffalo as a favorite at Washington, but nothing else, as Rex Ryan is already losing another locker room. With WR Robert Woods out and LeSean McCoy likely to sit, QB Tyrod Taylor has fewer playmakers. The Bills are 6-17 ATS after consecutive 150-plus yards rushing games. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Non-conference games BUFFALO is 2-5 ATS(L2Y) at HOME - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75 yards per attempt(cs) BUFFALO is 8-0 OVER(L5Y) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(cs) 11 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 NFL MATCHUPS Football Weekly (113) JACKSONLLE [SU:5-9 ATS:7-7] AT (114) NEW ORLEANS (-3 52) [SU:5-9 ATS:6-7-1] DECEMBER 27, 2015 4:05 PM on CBS - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA) JACKSONLLE 24.5 20 23-97 [4.2] 39-22-256 [6.6] 14.4 27.1 22 28-101 [3.6] 37-24-260 [6.9] 13.3-5 -2.6 NEW ORLEANS 25.0 23 24-92 [3.8] 42-29-304 [7.2] 15.8 30.9 24 27-137 [5.1] 34-23-276 [8.2] 13.4-1 -5.9 Blake Bortles has made huge strides in his second season with Jacksonville, but as we have witnessed several times, especially in the Atlanta loss, he s far from finished product. Bortles keeps making the kind of mistakes which helps the Jaguars falter and will have chances to show better against very beatable New Orleans secondary. Jacksonville is 0-8 ATS as nonconference underdogs of three or more. The Saints defense is so bad, even Jon Gruden was stumbling to find the words to say something positive about them. Offensively, New Orleans can still move the pigskin, especially at home with Drew Brees, just do not see where the 31st ranked defense is going to help, making them uninviting favorite. NEW ORLEANS is 6-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Less than 6 days rest JACKSONLLE is 0-9-1 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against weak rushing defenses yielding more than 4.7 yards per carry(cs) NEW ORLEANS is 6-0-1 OVER(L7G) at HOME - VS AFC-SOUTH (115) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:4-10 ATS:6-8] AT (116) DETROIT (-7.5 43) [SU:5-9 ATS:5-9] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on FOX - FORD FIELD (DETROIT, MI) SAN FRANCISCO 14.4 16 24-94 [3.9] 32-19-197 [6.2] 20.2 24.2 22 32-129 [4.1] 34-23-262 [7.7] 16.2-3 -9.8 DETROIT 21.6 21 22-84 [3.9] 40-26-260 [6.6] 15.9 25.9 20 27-112 [4.1] 34-23-240 [7.1] 13.6-10 -4.3 Here is a question, should the head coach be blamed for his team s slow starts or praised for his club finishing strong with good second halves? That is what 49ers fans are contemplating about Jim Tomsula. The players making mistakes goes both ways when they are the same week after week, but not giving up is also admirable. San Francisco is 1-6 and 2-5 ATS on road this season. You can make a case if Detroit can successfully revamp the offensive line, they have a realistic chance with all the other parts they have to be a division contender in 2016. Talent-wise Detroit should win this game with ease, but they are 1-12 and 3-9-1 ATS against San Fran since 1992. SAN FRANCISCO is 13-3 ATS(L5Y) - 2000 or more travel miles DETROIT is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) - In December DETROIT is 7-1 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(cs) (117) CLEVELAND [SU:3-11 ATS:4-9-1] AT (118) KANSAS CITY (-12.5 42.5) [SU:9-5 ATS:8-6] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - ARROWHEAD STADIUM (KANSAS CITY, MO) CLEVELAND 18.1 19 23-86 [3.8] 38-24-248 [6.5] 18.5 27.6 21 29-135 [4.6] 32-20-253 [7.8] 14.1-8 -9.5 KANSAS CITY 26.1 19 26-123 [4.6] 30-20-213 [7.0] 12.9 18.4 20 24-92 [3.9] 39-22-243 [6.3] 18.2 +15 +7.7 The Browns offense scored on their initial drive in Seattle and that was pretty much it as Seahawks adjusted and Johnny Manziel looked like he need for practice and reps. Most likely it will be more of the same in Kansas City as Cleveland heads towards 12th loss of season (4-9-1 ATS). The Chiefs took advantage of three Baltimore turnovers for their eight straight triumph (7-1 ATS). Nevertheless, there are still concerns, like being outgained for the second time in three outings and passing game averaging 162 YPG. It probably does not matter here, but Andy Reid is going to need more from Alex Smith and passing game versus better competition which does not turn the ball over. KANSAS CITY is 5-2 ATS(L2Y) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 26.5 PPG(CS) CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - AS underdog of more than 7 points CLEVELAND is 7-0 UNDER(L2Y) - In December 12 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly NFL MATCHUPS (119) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:6-8 ATS:6-8] AT (120) MIAMI (-2.5 43.5) [SU:5-9 ATS:4-10] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - SUN LIFE STADIUM (MIAMI, FL) INDIANAPOLIS 20.4 19 24-86 [3.6] 39-23-238 [6.0] 15.9 26.6 21 29-124 [4.3] 37-22-267 [7.2] 14.7-6 -6.2 MIAMI 19.9 18 20-94 [4.6] 37-22-228 [6.2] 16.2 25.8 23 32-132 [4.1] 35-23-265 [7.6] 15.4-2 -5.9 Indianapolis can still the AFC South with help, but they are best to try without Matt Hasselbeck. The 40-year old quarterback did not sign with Indianapolis to start seven games and take the beating he has, which would have been difficult at 25. Charley Whitehurst should take over and Andrew Luck come back completely healed in 2016 with a roster which was way overrated. The Colts are 10-1 ATS as underdogs off a SU setback. In a contest Miami could have won against laboring San Diego, all they did was pickup frequent flyer miles in pathetic performance. The Dolphins are not going to fix what ails them this season and playing like they want year to conclude and soon. INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(cs) MIAMI is 0-10 ATS(L10G) - In December INDIANAPOLIS is 8-2 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - Before playing TENNESSEE (121) NEW ENGLAND (-3 46) [SU:12-2 ATS:7-4-3] AT (122) NY JETS [SU:9-5 ATS:6-5-3] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ) NEW ENGLAND 31.1 23 24-91 [3.8] 41-26-303 [7.4] 12.7 19.2 18 24-96 [4.0] 37-22-230 [6.2] 17.0 +7 +11.9 NY JETS 24.6 21 29-114 [4.0] 38-23-257 [6.8] 15.1 19.4 17 22-83 [3.8] 39-22-240 [6.2] 16.6 +8 +5.2 Though the New York Jets beat Dallas, they fell out of the playoffs because of other tiebreakers working against them. To get back in, the Jets have to help themselves and receive charity from others. It starts with defeating the AFC s current top seed and defending Super Bowl champions. New York is 4-0-1 ATS in recent games against New England but needs to win with Ryan Fitzpatrick outplaying Tom Brady. With all the injuries to the Patriots offense, New England has gone from explosive to efficient (1st in yards per points). What is not getting much hype is Pats defense which is 6th in points allowed and total defense. Once opposing teams reach their 40-yard line, the Patriots stiffen. NEW ENGLAND is 9-2-2 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per attempt(cs) NY JETS is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9 yards per carry(cs) NY JETS is 8-2 OVER(L10G) - More than 6 days rest (123) HOUSTON (-4.5 39) [SU:7-7 ATS:7-7] AT (124) TENNESSEE [SU:3-11 ATS:5-9] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - NISSAN STADIUM (NASHLLE, TN) HOUSTON 19.6 21 28-103 [3.6] 39-23-242 [6.1] 17.6 21.5 18 26-110 [4.2] 34-20-211 [6.3] 14.9-1 -1.9 TENNESSEE 19.2 19 24-94 [4.0] 34-21-227 [6.7] 16.7 25.6 20 28-110 [4.0] 31-20-234 [7.5] 13.4-11 -6.4 Funny how life works. Brandon Weeden was cut by Dallas for not winning and being instinctive enough and instead is picked up as emergency quarterback by Houston and he might be guy that leads the Texans to division title. With T.J. Yates injured against Colts and now down for season, Weeden engineered comeback and is Houston s top signal caller. To beat Tennessee, he has to follow orders and find WR DeAndre Hopkins frequently. The Texans are 8-1 ATS of late versus Tennessee. With Marcus Mariota done for the year with MCL sprain, Zack Mettenberger gets to drive the Titans chariot home. The former LSU quarterback played in earlier game and was sacked seven times, making the run game tantamount for Tennessee. HOUSTON is 9-2 ATS(L2Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points TENNESSEE is 1-6 ATS(L2Y) - In December HOUSTON is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - In December 13 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 NFL MATCHUPS Football Weekly (125) GREEN BAY [SU:10-4 ATS:9-5] AT (126) ARIZONA (-4 49.5) [SU:12-2 ATS:8-6] DECEMBER 27, 2015 4:25 PM on FOX - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ) GREEN BAY 24.8 20 27-119 [4.4] 36-22-225 [6.3] 13.9 18.9 19 26-117 [4.4] 36-21-235 [6.5] 18.6 +7 +5.9 ARIZONA 31.8 24 29-126 [4.3] 35-22-296 [8.4] 13.3 19.2 18 22-87 [3.9] 37-22-243 [6.6] 17.2 +10 +12.6 This anticipated contest will go a long way in determining how far either of these squads will do in NFC playoffs. Arizona is 12-2 and on an eight-game winning streak and brimming with confidence, with the second-best scoring offense and tied for sixth in fewest points allowed. Two Green Bay wins and two Cardinals losses moves the Packers into No.2 seed, but the grumbling around the team definitely not hitting on all cylinders sounds like club trying to make postseason. This game could well come down to big plays and Arizona averages 8.4 yards per pass attempt (1st in NFL) and Aaron Rodgers and Pack are 6.3 (27th). The Packers are 1-8 ATS when they allow eight or more YPPA. GREEN BAY is 9-0-1 ATS(L10G) - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(cs) ARIZONA is 3-7 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS) GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(cs) (127) ST LOUIS [SU:6-8 ATS:6-7-1] AT (128) SEATTLE (-13 40.5) [SU:9-5 ATS:7-6-1] DECEMBER 27, 2015 4:25 PM on FOX - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA) ST LOUIS 17.2 15 26-123 [4.7] 29-17-176 [6.0] 17.4 21.0 20 28-118 [4.2] 37-25-247 [6.8] 17.4 +1-3.8 SEATTLE 26.4 21 32-147 [4.7] 30-20-238 [8.0] 14.6 17.7 17 23-84 [3.7] 34-21-218 [6.3] 17.1 +7 +8.7 You will not get an argument from anyone that worst Seattle is the third-best team in the NFC and one of five legitimate threats to win the Super Bowl. The road will be much harder without a home game, however, Pete Carroll s crew is supremely confident yet again after putting together 5-0 SU and ATS run. Though St. Louis has been a thorn in the Seahawks side, it has not been very often in land of coffee and fish markets. Seattle is 9-1 ATS after two straight wins by 10 or more points since 2013. The Rams have picked up a couple home victories, but close the season on the road where they 1-5 and 1-4-1 ATS. SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS(L2Y) - In December ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(cs) ST LOUIS is 10-1 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - In December (129) PITTSBURGH (-10.5 47) [SU:9-5 ATS:7-5-2] AT (130) BALTIMORE [SU:4-10 ATS:3-9-2] DECEMBER 27, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD) PITTSBURGH 27.0 21 25-113 [4.5] 37-24-290 [7.8] 14.9 20.5 20 23-89 [3.8] 38-25-279 [7.3] 18.0 +4 +6.5 BALTIMORE 20.9 20 24-93 [3.9] 41-26-266 [6.4] 17.2 25.7 19 26-100 [3.8] 35-22-242 [7.0] 13.3-15 -4.8 Annually, one of the most competitive division rivalries, this one probably won t be with Pittsburgh opening as 10-point favorites. The Steelers rang up over 30 points for the sixth straight game and they did it after the NFL s best defense holding a 17-point lead. Many USA hating countries do not have as many explosive weapons as Pittsburgh, with Ben Roethlisberger wondering where have these guys been his whole career. Pitt is 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive Over s since 2013. After 1-6 start, it was clear Baltimore was not quite good enough to win, making games close in the fourth quarter to create deceiving final scores. Injuries took care of the rest, as the Ravens are just attempting to play hard. 14 BALTIMORE is 8-2 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Before playing CINCINNATI PITTSBURGH is 1-9 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(cs) PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 13.35 yards per point(cs) THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly NFL MATCHUPS (131) CINCINNATI [SU:11-3 ATS:11-2-1] AT (132) DENVER (-3.5 40.5) [SU:10-4 ATS:8-5-1] DECEMBER 28, 2015 8:30 PM on ESPN - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO) CINCINNATI 27.0 20 29-111 [3.8] 32-21-256 [8.1] 13.6 17.4 19 22-93 [4.3] 39-26-244 [6.2] 19.4 +9 +9.6 DENVER 22.0 19 26-100 [3.9] 38-23-243 [6.3] 15.6 18.5 18 25-80 [3.2] 36-21-200 [5.6] 15.1 0 +3.5 Finally a Monday night game with a little juice! The second seed will be most likely determined here, with backup quarterbacks asked to perform well against elite defenses. Despite what Pittsburgh did to Denver in second half, the Broncos are still one of the best defenses and is first against the run, which means AJ McCarron probably has to throw to have Cincinnati win. The Broncos offense has not come out of the locker room in the second half and it has cost them the last two weeks. Brock Osweiler has appeared uncomfortable when not able to play in rhythm. It is not going to get easier even at home with Bengals first in fewest points allowed (17.4). CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - 1000 or more travel miles DENVER is 5-10 ATS(L5Y) - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(cs) DENVER is 11-1 OVER(L5Y) - VS AFC-NORTH POST CHRISTMAS AND PRE NEW YEARS COLLEGE BOWL GAME TRENDS AND SYSTEMS We continue our coverage of the middle group of the college bowl game season by covering the games from December 23rd through December 29th, a span that includes 16 different games. We will cover the next group of games in issue #18 next week. Teams from many different conferences will be represented and of course, we cover all of the games completely in the football insider. In addition to that, we ve taken some bits and pieces out of our annual Bowl Guide to share with you. All of the following trends and systems, plus a heck of a lot more, are available in the robust publication. If you haven t gotten your copy yet, please follow any of the links on our website for instructions on how to do so. Before we get to revealing some of the specific post-christmas/pre-new Year s bowl game handicapping tidbits we have uncovered, here is a sample look at some conference-byconference angles that we didn t show last week: ACC Underdogs were 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in the ACC s 11 bowl games last year. ACC teams were favored in four of those, going 0-4 SU & ATS. ACC teams are 5-2 SU & ATS in their L7 Big 6 level bowl games after going 3-13 SU prior. In addition to Clemson in the Orange Bowl playoff semifinal game, Florida State plays in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl against Houston. All nine of this year s bowl games featuring ACC teams will be played between Christmas and New Year s. AMERICAN ATHLETIC Five of the L7 American Athletic Conference bowl games went OVER the total, producing a lofty 70.0 PPG. AAC teams are 0-2 SU & ATS in two prior bowl games vs SEC foes, with both pointspreads being less than a touchdown in favor of the SEC. Memphis will test this trend in 2015 in its matchup with Auburn. BIG TEN Big Ten teams were 7-4 ATS in 11 different bowl games last season, the first winning pointspread record for the league since the 2010 season. In Big 6 -level bowl games, Big Ten teams have been somewhat successful, going 5-5 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in the L10. Seven of those games also went UNDER the total. Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State are in such games for 2015-16. Underdogs are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 January bowl games involving Big Ten teams. There are FIVE teams playing in these games this year. BIG 12 Big 6 level bowl games have not been good to Big 12 teams over the last 14 years, as representatives are 12-21 SU & 8-24-1 ATS since 02. That trend doesn t bode well for Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 15

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 16 Since the end of the 2005 bowl season, Big 12 teams are a brutal 5-19 SU & 6-18 ATS as an underdog of 9-points or less. Alternatively, Big 12 dogs catching more than nine points in bowl games are on a 9-3 ATS run. That info would seem to suggest to bet against Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech, but WITH Kansas State. The Big 12 is on a run of 12-8 SU & ATS against Pac 12 teams in bowl games, so favorable matchups for 2015 would include TCU, and West Virginia. MOUNTAIN WEST Mountain West teams have produced big point total games as bowl underdogs, going 20-11 OVER the total since 03. The games have produced about 61.5 PPG with MWC teams going 16-15 ATS. Air Force, San Diego State, and New Mexico are dogs this year. Totals have gone quite the opposite when MWC teams are favored, as 21 of 29 games have gone UNDER in this scenario. Utah State & San Jose State, and Boise State would trend this way for 2015. PAC 12 Since the Millenium, Pac 12 teams have been shined their brightest on the big stage, going 13-10 SU & 16-7 ATS in Big 6 level bowl games. The record is a tick better for January bowl games, 17-7 ATS in L24. Stanford, Oregon, and Arizona State would qualify on these trends. As a bowl game favorite, the Pac 12 Conference is 9-3 OVER in its L12. There are eight teams favored in 2015-16. Pac 12 teams have turned around past bowl struggles versus the ACC with a record of 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS since 07. Washington State takes on Miami FL this year. SEC In non-big 6 level bowl games is where the SEC really tends to strut its stuff, boasting a record of 18-5 SU & 16-7 ATS since 12. There are eight opportunities to back teams in such games this year, all BUT Alabama & Ole Miss. Watch for posted totals of 60 or higher in SEC bowl games, as UNDERDOGS have covered eight straight games in that scenario. Somewhat surprisingly, bowl games pitting teams from the SEC and Big Ten have trended OVER the total, 12-6 in the L18. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee are all in such matchups this year. Now, here is a look at a trend from each of the bowl series we are covering in this issue of the Football Weekly: POINSETTIA BOWL - QUALCOMM STADIUM - SAN DIEGO, CA (217) BOISE ST vs. (218) N ILLINOIS - The last three games of this bowl series have gone UNDER the total. Just 32.3 total PPG were scored. What s more interesting is that the final posted total has dropped off the opening number in eight straight games. GO DADDY.COM BOWL - LADD - PEEBLES STADIUM MOBILE, AL (219) GA SOUTHERN vs. (220) BOWLING GREEN - This will be the seventh straight year in which the MAC & Sun Belt leagues are matched, and while the MAC owns a 4-2 outright edge, the ATS ledger is split 3/3. BAHAMAS BOWL - THOMAS ROBINSON STADIUM - NASSAU, BAHAMAS (221) MIDDLE TENN ST vs. (222) W MICHIGAN - Bettors can certainly recall the inaugural Bahamas Bowl game of 2014, as they were either distraught or elated by the turn of events, as Central Michigan nearly pulled off the biggest and most improbable comeback in bowl game history against Western Kentucky, only to fall 49-48 after missing a twopoint conversion in the closing seconds. This is the only bowl game that matches the MAC & CUSA. HAWAII BOWL - ALOHA STADIUM - HONOLULU, HI (223) CINCINNATI vs. (224) SAN DIEGO ST - A Christmas Eve tradition, the last four installments have also gone UNDER the total, and prior to that this had become known as one of the highest scoring bowl series. Last year s 30-6 Rice win went UNDER by 23 points. ST.PETERSBURG BOWL - TROPICANA FIELD - ST. PETERSBURG, FL (225) CONNECTICUT vs. (226) MARSHALL - St. Petersburg Bowl Favorites are 5-2 SU & ATS, and the designated Home Team is 6-1 SU & ATS in the 7-year history. The Herd fit both bills in 2015. SUN BOWL - SUN BOWL STADIUM - EL PASO, TX (227) MIAMI FL vs. (228) WASHINGTON ST - The secret to underdog success in this game has been their ability to score, and that is reflected in a trend that shows 11 of the L14 games going OVER the total. On the side of the Cougars is a trend that shows Pac 12 teams as 8-3 ATS in their L11 bowl chances in El Paso. HEART OF DALLAS BOWL - COTTON BOWL - DALLAS, TX (229) SOUTHERN MISS vs. (230) WASHINGTON - The Heart of Dallas Bowl game has a trend that shows Conference USA representatives boasting a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS record in their appearances in this series. The Huskies will be the Pac 12 s first ever participant. PINSTRIPE BOWL - YANKEE STADIUM - BRONX, NY (231) INDIANA vs. (232) DUKE - The 2015 Pinstripe Bowl will be different from past games in the series in that for the first time, there won t be a true east coast school participating. Underdogs are on a 4-0 ATS run in the game, a trend that would favor the Blue Devils (+2.5) at presstime. INDEPENDENCE BOWL - INDEPENDENCE STADIUM - SHREVEPORT- LA (233) TULSA vs. (234) RGINIA TECH - From a betting trend perspective, note that THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly favorites in the Independence Bowl have been dominant, boasting a record of 9-3 SU & ATS since 03. FOSTER FARMS BOWL - LE S STADIUM - SANTA CLARA, CA (235) NEBRASKA vs. (236) UCLA - The San Francisco area has favorites winning eight straight games while going 6-2 ATS. Don t ignore the total, as there is a nice pattern there as well, 6-2 UNDER since 2007. MILITARY BOWL - NAVY - MARINE CORPS STADIUM - ANNAPOLIS, MD (237) PITTSBURGH vs. (238) NAVY - ACC teams own a 3-1 SU & ATS record in their four prior appearances in this bowl series. Favorites boast a 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS edge alltime. QUICK LANE BOWL - FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MI (239) C MICHIGAN vs. (240) MINNESOTA - The Gophers will be looking to extend the Big Ten s record in Detroit to 4-1 SU & ATS. MAC schools are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six appearances in this bowl series. Minnesota is favored, a curse perhaps, as dogs are 6-1-1 ATS in the L8. ARMED FORCES BOWL - AMON G. CARTER STADIUM - FORT WORTH, TX (241) AIR FORCE vs. (242) CALIFORNIA - The outright winner has covered the last 11 games of the Armed Forces Bowl. Four of the L5 games have gone UNDER the total. of a year ago. However, favorites owned that exact same record in the prior year. Favorites of more than 7-points are on a run of 11-7 in post-christmas/pre-new Year s Day bowl games, reversing an incredible trend that saw underdogs go 30-7-1 in the prior 38 games. Post-Christmas/Pre-New Year s Day bowl games have trend UNDER the total at a 60% rate recently, 36-24-1 in the L61. Post-Christmas/Pre-New Year s Day bowl games with lower totals have been great opportunities to bet on underdogs lately, as they own a record of 13-4 ATS when the totals have been 44 or less in these contests. Underdogs are on a run of 9-3 ATS in the L12 Big 6 level bowl games played between Christmas and New Year s. The bigger the Post-Christmas/Pre-New Year s Day bowl favorite, the less the chances of a cover. Those laying 10-points or more are 28-8 SU in their L36 games but just 10-24-2 ATS since 93. Teams that fail to reach the 24-point mark in Post-Christmas/Pre-New Year s Day bowl games are just 35-74 SU & 24-83-1 ATS since 93. Teams that reach the 35-point mark in in Post-Christmas/Pre-New Year s Day bowl games are 70-8 SU & ATS since 93 59-18-1 ATS. RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL - FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL - ORLANDO, FL (243) BAYLOR vs. (244) NORTH CAROLINA - The ACC makes an annual stop here against various opponents, and the ACC team typically does well, boasting an 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS mark since 03. ARIZONA BOWL - ARIZONA STADIUM - TUCSON, AZ (245) NEVADA vs. (246) COLORADO ST - The Arizona Bowl is unique to the 2015 bowl schedule in a couple of significant ways. First, it is the first installment of a brand new series played in Tucson at the home of the Arizona Wildcats. Second, it will be the first time that two conference opponents go head-to-head in a bowl game in the modern era. TEXAS BOWL - NRG STADIUM - HOUSTON, TX (247) TEXAS TECH vs. (248) LSU - The chalk has clearly been the preferred side of choice in the Texas Bowl series, with a record of 11-3 SU & 9-4-1 ATS since 01. LSU fits the bill in 2015. POST-CHRISTMAS/PRE-NEW YEAR S DAY BOWL GAME SYSTEMS The following are betting systems that have produced profitable angles in the post- Christmas/Pre-New Year s Day bowl games of recent years: Underdogs were 12-5 ATS in the post- Christmas/Pre-New Year s Day bowl games SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 17

AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 18 FOOTBALL LINE MOVES Let s start with Merry Christmas wishes to all who have purchases this product all season and this week. Here are latest NFL Week 16 line moves along with what is happening in the bowls this week. HAWAI I BOWL DEC. 24/ 8:00 ET ESPN (223) CINCINNATI vs. (224) SAN DIEGO STATE With quarterback Gunner Kiel - Out - due to personal matter according to Cincinnati, backup Hayden Moore steps in for a second time this season. This took the Bearcats from -2 to +1.5 against San Diego State. Interesting to note however the total has actually gone up a half point to 56.5. OUR Take San Diego State covers PINSTRIPE BOWL DEC. 26/ 3:30 ET ABC (231) INDIANA vs. (232) DUKE It is already well known Indiana s defense is not going to slow anybody down and the way Duke finished the year, they appeared only marginally better. This has helped push the total from 65 to 71. The Hoosiers track record is convincing at 10-2 OVER on the season and 7-0 OVER when in the favorite role. Our Take Play Over NFL Saturday (103) WASHINGTON at (104) PHILADELPHIA 8:25 ET NFLN Meaningful NFC East game on the line. Football bettors, at least early have focused on the total, lowering it a point to 47.5. Though both defenses leave a little to be desired, Washington is only averaging 18.3 PPG on the road and Philadelphia has not gotten the job at The Linc in averaging 21.7 PPG. Being a division battle it seems like it should be lower scoring, but the Eagles are 10-2 OVER after one or more losses since last season. OUR Take - Lean Over NFL (117) CLEVELAND at (188) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET CBS After four games, Kansas City was allowing an average of 31.2 PPG. Since that time they have conceded just 13.2 PPG and are one of the hottest team this side of Carolina at 8-0 and 7-1 ATS. With Cleveland ranked 29th in scoring at 18.1 PPG, the total has drifted from 44 to 42.5. Whether this game goes over is likely predicated on the Chiefs defense, which has scored touchdowns or set up offense on the doorstep. OUR Take - Lean Over NFL (127) ST. LOUIS at (128) SEATTLE 4:25 ET FOX Seattle is playing like in years past, but is a different team. The defense has all season has been vulnerable to quality passing teams and locked down those who were average of below. St. Louis fits in the latter group, ranked dead last in the NFL at 176.5. This likely is the leading factor for total dropping from 42 to 41. The Seahawks being 10-2 UNDER in the month of December the last three years also grabs your attention. OUR Take - Play Under MILITARY BOWL DEC. 28/ 2:30 ET ESPN (237) PITTSBURGH vs. (238) NAVY Navy has a great history as an underdog through the years and only a so-so favorite. But this Midshipmen crew is cut from a different cloth, which makes it surprising to see them fall from -5 to -3 at home against Pittsburgh. The Panthers were better than expected but this is a really special Navy team, who was 9-1 and 7-3 ATS as favorites this season and was 6-0 and 5-1 ATS at home. Our Take Navy covers NFL - Monday (131) CINCINNATI at (132) DENVER 8:30 ET ESPN The importance of this AFC affair cannot be overstated, neither can the fact the quarterback matchup is Brock Osweiler vs. AJ McCarron. With these two quarterbacks facing two of the Top 4 scoring defenses in the NFL, it seems only natural the total would slide from 42 to 40.5. There is little reason to think this contest would go Over, however, with inexperienced quarterbacks, turnovers are a possibility which could set up opposing offenses in scoring territory and alter the presumed outcome. OUR Take - Lean Under ARMED FORCES BOWL DEC. 29/ 2:00 ET ESPN (241) AIR FORCE vs. (242) CALIFORNIA In this bowl contest, the numbers suggest California will not be able to slow the Air Force option offense and the Falcons are not going to have answers for the Golden Bears Air Raid passing offense. Naturally this leads to a rising total, up from 63 to 67.5. Air Force comes in 15-5 OVER after three consecutive games forcing one or less turnovers. Our Take Play Over RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL DEC. 29/ 5:30 ET ESPN (243) BAYLOR vs. (244) NORTH CAROLINA With QB Jarrett Stidham listed as doubtful, plus RB Shock Linwood and WR Corey Coleman officially - Out - Baylor has dipped from -2 to a Pick against North Carolina, losing a lot of front line talent. OUR Take Lean North Carolina TEXAS BOWL DEC. 29/ 9:00 ET ESPN (247) TEXAS TECH vs. (248) LSU Given the nature of LSU, it seems absolutely crazy to have them with a total in the 70, let alone one that is going higher. But thanks to Texas Tech offense and lack of defense, especially against the run (126th out of 128), the Texas Bowl total is as big as 10-gallon hat going from 71 to 73.5. The Red Raiders are 10-2 OVER on a neutral field when the total is 63 or higher. OUR Take Lean Under Records Bowls 1-3 (60-50-1 regular season) NFL - 30-35-1 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION