Belarus and the IMF KEF 2017 Minsk, November 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe
Belarus became IMF member on July 10, 1992 25 years ago this year. IMF involvement with Belarus started even before independence Late 1991, TA mission of IMF s Central Banking Department. Left Aide-memoire on Monetary Management and Supporting Central Banking Reforms: Preliminary Findings and Recommendations, and Future Technical Assistance Resident Representative office opened in 1992 2
Since 1992 there have been 11 resident representatives, 12 mission chiefs Resident Representatives (from 1992) Willem Middelkoop Mission Chiefs (from 1992) Grant Spencer Istvan Szalkai Peter Hole Richard Haas Henri Lorie Mark Horton Ishan Kapur Zuzana Brixiova Thomas Wolf Balazh Horvath Marta de Castello-Branco Neven Mates Thomas J. Richardson Natalia Koliadina Balazh Horvath Mark Allen Neven Mates James Roaf Chris Jarvis Bas Bakker David Hofman Peter Dohlman 3
Very important has also been the local staff, currently Julia (25 years!), Elena (21 years), Mariya, and Vladimir. Advisor Economists Office Manager Drivers Julia Lyskova Denis Krivorotov Elena Kovalenko Boris Burakov Mikhail Pranovich Anatoly Kresik Anastasiya Luzgina Vladimir Dudal Alexander Egorov Dmitry Bedok Alina Kafarova Mariya Sviderskaya 4
Who interacted with 6 Central Bank Governors Stanislav Bogdankevich (1991 1995) Tamara Vinnikova ( 1996 1997) Gennady Aleynikov 1997 1998) Piotr Prokopovich (1998 2011) Nadezhda Yermakova 2011 2014) Pavel Kallaur (2014-21xx) 5
Belarus has had two STF and two SBA programs with the IMF IMF arrangements with Belarus and credit outstanding (SDR billion) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Systemic Transformation Facility Systemic Transformation Facility Standby Arrangement Standby Arrangement 0.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Start date Type of the program Amount approved Amount drawn Jul 28, 1993 Systemic Transformation Facility SDR70.1 million SDR70.1 million Jan 31,1995 Systemic Transformation Facility SDR70.1 million SDR70.1 million Sep 12, 1995 Stand-By Arrangement SDR196.28 million SDR50.0 million Jan 12, 2009 Stand-By Arrangement SDR2,269.5 million SDR2,269.5 million 6
But relationship is much closer than suggested by number of programs In recent years in particular there has been very close collaboration and high level contacts 7
Belarus has also received IMF technical assistance and trainings Technical Assistance Delivery (person-years) Staff Training (participant-weeks) 4.5 250 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 200 150 100 50 0.5 0.0 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012-1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 8
Some of the issues have changed In 1992, Belarus was still in the ruble zone Issue was how to make Belarus macro policies consistent with ruble zone membership 9
But others not so much From the 1994 Article IV Staff report 10
How has Belarus done? The economy looks much brighter! Nightlights intensity In 1992 In 2013 11
Income inequality has remained low Gini Index (from World Development Indicators) 12
Life expectancy has improved and compares favorably with other CIS countries Life expectancy at birth (years, from World Development Indicators) 13
Infant mortality is as low as in Scandinavia and the Netherlands! 14
If we compare Belarus with its neighbors Per capita income is higher than Moldova and Ukraine Not as high as Poland and the Baltics 15
Belarus has grown faster than Ukraine and Moldova GDP per capita in thousands of 2016 USD (with updated 2011 PPPs) 20 14 Unemployment Rate (Percent) 18 16 12 14 Belarus 10 Ukraine 12 10 8 Ukraine 8 6 6 4 2 Moldova 4 2 Moldova Belarus 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 16
Which is also visible on satellites Nightlights intensity In 1992 In 2013 c c c c 17
But Belarus has not done as well as Poland Nightlights intensity In 1992 In 2013 18
GDP in Poland has increased more and has been less volatile 30 GDP per capita in thousands of 2016 USD (with updated 2011 PPPs) 15 Growth of GDP per capita 25 Poland 10 20 5 Poland 15 Belarus 0 10-5 Belarus 5-10 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017-15 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 19
Income convergence toward the more dynamic CEE countries remains a key objective and challenge Price level 80 70 60 50 40 30 MDA Income and Price Convergence, 1995-2017 (Percent of EU15) UKR BIH UVK ALB SRB MKD MNE BLR BGR HRV ROU LVA RUS EST SVK LTU HUN POL SVK CZE 20 10 0 Note: 2000-2017 for BIH, UVK, MNE and SRB Data points for 1995, 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 GDP per capita, PPP 20
To the next 25 years of IMF-Belarus collaboration! 21
Thank you