The Future of Growth in CESEE
|
|
- Felicity Cross
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Future of Growth in CESEE Presentation at EBRD London, 13 February 2018 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
2 CESEE had a very deep crisis in 2008/09 15 GDP growth (Percent) 10 5 CE-5 Baltics CIS SEE EU SEE non-eu
3 albeit with significant cross-country differences 3
4 In most CESEE countries, GDP per capita is well above pre-crisis levels 4
5 Growth is not as high as in the pre-crisis years Real GDP growth in CESEE excl. CIS (Percent) Max Average Min 2007 level
6 2 year average employment growth But employment growth in many countries is as high as during pre-crisis peaks. GDP growth vs. employment growth (Percent, 2 year average) 3 CE-5 2 SEE Post-crisis Post-crisis Pre-crisis Pre-crisis year average GDP growth 6
7 Unemployment is coming down rapidly and is now below pre-crisis levels 14 Cumulative Changes in Unemployment Rate (2008Q1=0, seasonally adjusted) SRB 8 EST LTU 6 LVA 4 SVK HUN 2 POL CZE 8 HRV 6 4 SVN BGR 2 ROU MNE BIH ALB* MKD 2017Q3: *For ALB 2012Q1=0 7
8 Despite this rapid fall, in , inflation was very low in CESEE even lower than in Western Europe 8 CPI Inflation (Percent) 6 4 CESEE excl. CIS 2 Euro Area
9 In 2017 inflation picked up 8 CPI Inflation (Percent) 6 4 CESEE excl. CIS 2 Euro Area
10 Energy and food prices played key role in resurgence of inflation 40 Oil and Food Prices (Percent, Y/Y, 6 months moving average) Oil Price Food and Beverage Price Index
11 However, wage growth has also notably accelerated over the past two years 18 Nominal Wage Growth (Percent, Y/Y) Q3 2015Q MNE BIH MKD SRB POL HRV LVA SVN CZE SVK LTU EST BGR HUN ROU 11
12 Outlook for Western Europe is for continued recovery and low interest rates 5 Real GDP Growth in Euro Area (Percent) 4.5 Euro Area Policy Rate and Its Forecast (Percent) ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
13 This makes it likely that rapid growth will continue. Question: What will it imply for the labor markets? 3 Employment and Working Age Population Growth in CESEE (Excl. TUR and CIS, percent) 2 Employment growth Working Age Population Growth and UN projection
14 According to WEO estimates, output gaps in most countries are now closed 14
15 Outside the labor market, there are no signs of overheating Inflation is modest Current account deficits remain low and capital inflows are low Credit growth does not much exceed GDP growth 15
16 Tightening labor markets and low inflation may continue to co-exist in the near future Much of inflation in CESEE depends on Food and energy prices Imported inflation Exchange rate appreciation in some countries may keep inflation low 16
17 Pre-crisis, inflation really picked up only in , when oil shock added to tight labor markets 7 CPI Inflation in CESEE (Percent, excl. CIS)
18 Even if rapid growth of wages does not lead to pick-up of inflation, it may still affect the economy If firms absorb rising labor costs, profit margins will decline Decline of profit shares will Reduce investment Reduce competitiveness 18
19 Low inflation does not necessarily mean that growth is sustainable In pre-crisis years we overestimated potential output growth in advanced countries because core inflation remained low Output Gap in and Potential Output Growth in Advanced Economies: , percent Output Gap WEO Fall 2017 WEO Fall WEO Fall WEO Fall Potential Output Growth
20 IMPLICATIONS FOR CYCLICAL POLICIES 20
21 This would be the good time to create fiscal space and reduce structural deficits Particularly given that debt is much higher than pre-crisis levels General Government Debt (Percent of GDP) EST UVK BGR CZE LVA LTU ROU MKD BIH SVK POL ALB SRB MNE HUN SVN HRV UKR 21
22 Unfortunately, many countries are reverting to pro-cyclical loosening 3 2 General Government Structural Balance (Percent of GDP) ROU POL HUN SVN HRV EST SRB SVK BGR LVA LTU BIH CZE 22
23 Monetary policy will only be an option in countries with floating exchange rates They can let exchange rate appreciate They can raise interest rates Countries with fixed exchange rates or the euro have the most challenges: Nominal interest rates are likely to stay low (in line with ECB rates) Real interest rates will then decline as inflation/wages pick up 23
24 Pre-crisis, countries with floating exchange rates found it easier to keep inflation low 12 CPI Inflation (Percent) 10 Fixers Floaters Note: Fixers include BGR, EST, HRV, LVA, LTU, SVN and SVK. Floaters include CZE, HUN, POL and ROU. 24
25 and were able to mitigate the boom-busts. 10 Real GDP Growth (Percent) Fixers Floaters Note: Fixers include BIH, BGR, EST, HRV, LVA, LTU, SVN and SVK. Floaters include ALB, CZE, HUN, POL, ROU and SRB. 25
26 IMPLICATIONS FOR STRUCTURAL POLICIES 26
27 Potential output growth is well below pre-crisis levels. Potential Output and GDP Growth (Percent) 6 CE-5 GDP growth, 3 year moving average 8 SEE EU GDP growth, 3 year moving average Baltics GDP growth, 3 year moving average Potential output growth 4 2 Potential output growth Potential output growth
28 Why has potential GDP growth slowed? TFP growth has slowed That means same investment yields less output increase Lower return on investment leads to decline of investment, further reducing growth 28
29 To understand this, let s look at Solow- Swan growth model In Solow-Swan growth model, long-term growth depends on n+g n=growth of working age population g=growth of labor augmenting technological progress (which is equal to TFP growth/labor share) 29
30 According to Solow-Swan, in long term, GDP growth does not depend on investment rate Higher investment rate without increase in n+g will initially lead to higher GDP growth rate But as capital-output ratio rises, growth rate falls back to old level (Of course investment rate does matter for income levels) (Government investment may boost TFP and be better for growth than government consumption) 30
31 What would we expect to happen if n+g slows down? Lower GDP growth If investment rate unchanged, capital-output ratio will rise and return on capital will drop Investment will likely fall in response to drop in returns, which will further reduce GDP growth (in the short term) So we would expect both lower growth and lower investment This is precisely what happened. 31
32 n+g has slowed down 12 Working Age Population + Labor Augmenting Technological Growth (Percent, 5 year moving averages) CE5 Baltics SEE EU 0-2 SEE non-eu
33 Much of this reflects lower TFP growth 6 TFP Growth (Percent, 5-year moving average) SEE non-eu Baltics SEE EU 2 1 CE
34 But working age population growth has come down as well 0.5 Working Age Population Growth (Population ages years, 5 year moving average) SEE non-eu CE-5 SEE EU -1.5 Baltics
35 Output growth has slowed and investment rates are lower 10 GDP growth (Percent, 3 year moving average) 33 Investment Rate (Percent of GDP, 3 year moving average) Baltics SEE EU CE-5 Baltics SEE EU SEE non-eu CE SEE non-eu* *Excl. MKD 35
36 Fall in TFP is a global problem 1.5 TFP growth (Percent, 5 year moving average) USA EU
37 Why has global TFP growth slowed? 37
38 Several interrelated factors have played a role Measurement issues may have played a role, but most of TFP slowdown seems genuine Weak corporate balance sheets, combined with tight credit conditions, have undermined TFP growth, partly by constraining investment in intangible assets in distressed firms. An adverse feedback loop of weak aggregate demand, investment, and capital-embodied technological change seems to have afflicted the advanced economies. Elevated economic and policy uncertainty may have further weakened TFP growth, partly by tilting investment away from higher-risk, higher-return projects. 38
39 What can be done to boost TFP growth Address several problems Limited access to financial services (e.g. for SMEs) Infrastructural gaps Inefficient legal systems and other government services 39
40 Improve institutions, especially judiciary Judicial Independence, 2015 Impartial Courts, 2015 Below 25 percentile Between 25 and 75 percentile Above 75 percentile Source: World Economic Forum. Note: Worldwide distribution excluding LICs 40
41 Institutional reforms provide large efficiency gains Better institutions hold the promise of retaining emigration of skilled workers Effective protection of property rights provides stronger incentives for investment Institutions affect innovation and productivity through enhanced trust, cooperation, commitment, and contract enforcement 41
42 TFP matters, because CESEE is still poorer than Western Europe Real GDP per capita (Percent of Germany) CE-5 Baltics SEE EU CIS 20 SEE non-eu
43 Continued convergence will necessitate faster TFP growth Faster TFP growth will not only raise GDP growth directly; it also increases the return on investment Increasing capital/labor without higher TFP will boost capital output ratio and lower return on capital 43
44 Capital-output ratios in many CESEE countries are no longer low compared with Western Europe 3.5 Capital Output Ratio (Percent) 3.0 DEU EST HRV BGR
45 Employment to population ratio in 2016 (Percent) Even though capital per worker is still low. Capital per Worker vs. Employment to Population Ratio MDA RUS UKR POL SRB BGR ROU LTU SVK EST SWE CZE LVA HUN SVN HRV DEU DNK NLD AUT GBR PRT FIN FRA IRL BEL ESP ALB MKD MNE BIH TUR GRC ITA Capital per worker in 2014 (Thousands of PPP dollars) 45
46 Concluding thoughts CESEE has done very nicely in recent years with strong growth and rapidly declining unemployment The challenge will be to continue this rapid growth Labor markets have tightened, and are likely to tighten further if strong growth continues If TFP growth does not pick up, growth cannot continue at this pace 46
47 Thank you
48 Supplemental slides
49 Solow-Swan rehash Output depends on the capital stock, employment, and labor-augmenting technological progress: Y t = K t A t L t 1 The labor force grows at rate n: The rate of technological progress is g: L t = L(0)e nt A t = A(0)e gt The capital stock is determined by investment minus depreciation: ሶ K t = sy t δk(t) 49
50 Long-run equilibrium Long-Run Equilibrium Path The growth rate of capital is: dy Y dk K = n + g = n + g The capital output ratio is: K Y = s n + g + δ The return on capital is: r = Y K = (n + g + δ) s 50
51 Labor augmenting technological progress can be deduced from TFP growth In the Solow-Swan framework we have: Taking logs and differentiating we get: Y t = K(t) (e gt L t ) 1 dy Y = dk K + 1 dl L + 1 g Total factor productivity growth is typically derived as: g TFP = dy Y dk K 1 dl L It follows that: g = g TFP 1 51
52 Raising K/L without raising TFP will lead to decline in return on capital Y t = K t α A t L t 1 α Return on capital depends on capital output ratio r = α K Y Capital output ratio depends on capital labor ratio and TFP K Y = (K L )α 1 A Low K/L does not necessarily mean low K/Y it can also mean low TFP 52
Regional Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Issues Focus on CESEE
Regional Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Issues Focus on CESEE IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar Vienna, June 13, 2018 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern
More informationRecent Fiscal Developments and Outlook: The April 2014 IMF Fiscal Monitor Julio Escolano
Recent Fiscal Developments and Outlook: The April 214 IMF Fiscal Monitor Julio Escolano Division Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Joint Vienna Institute, Vienna, June,
More informationIII. Importance of Revenue Administration
Outline of Presentation I. Trends in Revenue Mobilization II. Growth Friendly Tax Policy III. Importance of Revenue Administration 2 I. Trends in Revenue Mobilization Trends in Overall Revenues - Median
More informationThe U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
More informationRossana Merola ILO, Research Department
Raising tax revenues without harming equity and employment Rossana Merola ILO, Research Department G-24 Special Workshop on Growth and Reducing Inequality Geneva, 5 th - 6 th September 2017 The views expressed
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
More informationThe Economy of Finland
The Economy of Finland Aug 30st 2013, Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Presentation for the American Fulbright Grantees Petteri Rautaporras, Economist at the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries
More informationSeven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and
More informationPhysical inactivity as a major risk factor
Physical inactivity as a major risk factor Worldwide, physical inactivity causes at least 6 10% NCDs (CHD, diabetes, breast and colon cancer)* Physical inactivity causes 9% premature mortality* In Europe,
More informationBelarus and the IMF KEF Minsk, November Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe
Belarus and the IMF KEF 2017 Minsk, November 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Belarus became IMF member on July 10, 1992 25 years ago this year.
More informationOutline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
More informationAs Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International
As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect
More informationThe structure of the euro area recovery
The structure of the euro area recovery Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist JPMorgan Investor Seminar, IMF Annual Meetings Washington, October 2017 The euro area: a systemic player in global trade Trade openness
More informationAN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX
Productivity Symposium 2 July 2013 Wellington, New Zealand AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX Alain de Serres Head of Structural Surveillance Division, Economics Department, OECD
More informationMONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION
OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute
More informationThe political economy of inequality in Ireland. Labour markets as social institutions
The political economy of inequality in Ireland Labour markets as social institutions The revival of political economy From the outset, political economy sought to study scientifically, or at any rate rationally,
More informationHas Abenomics Revived the Japanese Economy?
Has Abenomics Revived the Japanese Economy? Takeo Hoshi Stanford University, NBER, and ABFER Brad Richardson Memorial Lecture, The Institute for Japanese Studies, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH,
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full
More informationCanadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
More informationGlobal economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
More informationThe Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationWelcome. Eurocodes Implementation: Training JRC report
Welcome Eurocodes Implementation: Training JRC report Artur Pinto Silvia Dimova Luisa Sousa Borislava Nikolova Joint Research Centre, European Commission J C Juncker (President Elect) 10 Political priorities
More informationNational Poll Dorset Conference Alexandra Gartmann, CEO and Managing Director Rural Bank and Rural Finance
National Poll Dorset Conference 2017 Alexandra Gartmann, CEO and Managing Director Rural Bank and Rural Finance Internal Document Only Earth according to geography Earth according to population We need
More informationQuantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from the Financial Crisis
Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from the Financial Crisis Robert E. Hall Hoover Institution and Department of Economics Stanford University Lessons from the Financial Crisis and the Great
More informationAgriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed
Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half
More informationBackground and Timeline Why How do they work Facts & Figures Feedback and Working Group conclusions World Rankings and qualification to major events
IAAF WORLD RANKINGS Background and Timeline Why How do they work Facts & Figures Feedback and Working Group conclusions World Rankings and qualification to major events WORLD RANKINGS BACKGROUND 1979 Elite
More informationThe Economics of Public Policy 2. Government Revenue and Expenditure in the USA and elsewhere
Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University The Economics of Public Policy 2. Government Revenue and Expenditure in the USA and elsewhere Prof George Alogoskoufis The Size of the Public Sector
More informationSteel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009
Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar
More informationUnderstanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy
Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy David Turner, OECD UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy, LINK Project October
More informationThe U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
More informationEconomic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
More informationPoland: Europe s economic outperformer. Piotr Bujak Chief Economist at Nordea Bank Polska PKO Bank Polski Group. Copenhagen, 29 April 2014
Poland: Europe s economic outperformer Piotr Bujak Chief Economist at Nordea Bank Polska PKO Bank Polski Group Copenhagen, 29 April 2014 Poland crisis-proof economic front-runner 300 250 200 % Cumulated
More informationFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)
The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs
More informationMUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors
MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.
More informationFinancial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition
Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition May 7 and 8, 2013 İstanbul, Turkey Outline 1 The Financial System 2 Weak Growth 3 4 5 Unprecedented
More informationAfter the British referendum
Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase
More informationGlobal economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919
More informationEconomic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth?
Economic Analysis What s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth? Kan Chen Capital stock, labor, and productivity do not show a significant increase following the recent fiscal stimulus According to our
More informationThe Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationTHE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?
THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered
More informationCEV Volleyball European Championships Women / Men Official Communications
Confédération Européenne de Volleyball CONFÉDÉRATION EUROPÉENNE DE VOLLEYBALL CEV Volleyball European Championships Women / Men Official Communications RELEASED ON: 09.08.2017 2019 CEV VOLLEYBALL EUROPEAN
More informationEconomic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant
More informationGLOBAL IMBALANCES: PRE- AND POST-CRISIS. GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI International Monetary Fund Research Department
GLOBAL IMBALANCES: PRE- AND POST-CRISIS GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI International Monetary Fund Research Department The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the IMF or its
More information2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU)
2017 PNG Economic Survey Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) Introduction New government, new plan Short-term challenges: recession, falling government
More informationDefence Expenditure of NATO Countries ( )
14 March/mars 2019 COMMUNIQUE PR-CP(2019)034 Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2011-2018) NATO collects defence expenditure data from Allies on a regular basis and presents aggregates and subsets
More informationDrawing of Lots Luxembourg, October 26, 2013
Drawing of Lots Luxembourg, October 26, 2013 2015 CEV Volleyball European Championship Men 2015 CEV Volleyball European Championship Women 2014 CEV U19 Women Volleyball European Championship 2014 CEV U20
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?
More informationBC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager
BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911
More informationThe US Economic Outlook
IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth
More informationFrance : Economic developments and reforms, where are we heading?
France : Economic developments and reforms, where are we heading? The Economic Club of New York : 18 April 2018 François VILLEROY de GALHAU, Governor of the Banque de France 1 WHERE ARE WE STARTING FROM?
More informationDeficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM
Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,
More informationCan Manufacturing Still be a Driver of
Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of Inclusive Growth? Robert Z Lawrence Albert L Williams Professor of Trade and Investment Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, MasterCard Center for Inclusive Growth
More informationNational and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
More informationU.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot Economic Press Briefing: May 19, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or
More informationGrasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy
Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor
More informationRBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism
More informationU.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
More informationRomania Systematic Country Diagnostic
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Romania Systematic Country Diagnostic BACKGROUND NOTE Trade Public Disclosure Authorized June 2018 Public Disclosure Authorized Acknowledgments
More informationUS imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly
US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization
More informationThe Euro Area: A Reality Check
Fletcher School, Tufts University The Euro Area: A Reality Check Prof. George Alogoskoufis Monetary Cooperation in Europe Four sub-periods in the evolution of monetary cooperation in the European Union.
More informationThe U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.
The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and
More informationSouthwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group
Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after
More informationAnna Kosior, Economic Analysis Department. Will Central and Eastern Europe run out of steam?
Anna Kosior, Economic Analysis Department Will Central and Eastern Europe run out of steam? Opinie wyrażone w niniejszej publikacji są opiniami autorów i nie przedstawiają stanowiska organów Narodowego
More information2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
More informationAbel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa It is widely known the success of Asian Tigers But is less known that Portugal was one of the few countries, similar to the Asian Tigers, that changed from a
More informationThe Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008
The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008 No Debate About Recession (1) So Why Hasn t the Recession been Officially Declared?
More informationPaul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009
Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies
More informationCan China Pilot a Soft Landing? 2017 Article IV Consultation Analysis, Outlook, and Policy Advice
Can China Pilot a Soft Landing? 2017 Article IV Consultation Analysis, Outlook, and Policy Advice September 2017 1 KEY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS China has had strong growth momentum which Real GDP Real GDP Stabilizes
More informationA Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values
A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant
More informationThe Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments
The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments 18 th Monetary Policy Workshop at the Berlin School of Economcs and Law, 12 13 October 2017 Overview Position 1: The euro itself
More informationA comment on recent events, and...
A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,
More informationLocal systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right?
Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right? Jean-Paul Fitoussi Professor, IEP Paris President, OFCE «Culture and Knowledge: Local Systems in a Global Context» European Colloquia Prague,
More informationSession 4. Growth. Macroeconomics in the Global Economy
Session 4. Growth Stylized Facts on Standards of Living across Countries Characterizing Growth over 100 Years: The US Economy Growth Dynamics of the G7 Countries and the OECD Economies Characterizing Growth
More informationEast Bay Financial Planners Association Conference
East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference Is The New Normal Here to Stay? January 10, 2018 Rich Taylor Vice President Client Portfolio Manager Percent Change (%) Subpar Economic Growth Real GDP
More informationTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL CHALLENGES & U.S. REAL ESTATE TIMOTHY H. SAVAGE, PH.D. SENIOR MANAGING ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL DATA SCIENTIST
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL CHALLENGES & U.S. REAL ESTATE TIMOTHY H. SAVAGE, PH.D. SENIOR MANAGING ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL DATA SCIENTIST GROWTH SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS Source: Macrobond, Oxford
More informationRetrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers. UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013
Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013 Slide 1. The Conventional Wisdom. Japan has suffered from two lost
More informationRISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE. (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last?
RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last? Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics CONCLUSIONS OF
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
More informationsector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO
The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking
More informationCharting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds
Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington,
More informationAsk a question Go to slido.com, enter #london
Ask a question Go to slido.com, enter #london THE BIG PICTURE Kevin McCauley EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF LONDON RESEARCH MARKET BACKGROUND LOW GROWTH, UNCERTAINTY BUT STRONG GLOBAL ECONOMY Slowing UK economic
More informationTrade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies
Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic
More informationFuture Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
More informationRISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments
RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics GDP
More informationOverview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority
Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC 2015 Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority Marriot Hotel, Newport City 8 October 2014 Outline AEC 2015
More informationNational Report Iceland. RINORD June 2018 Tryggvi Jónsson, Chairman of FRV
National Report Iceland RINORD June 2018 Tryggvi Jónsson, Chairman of FRV FRV s activities and priorities 2017-2018 Annual strategy meeting set out the following priorities: Good procurement practices
More informationThe Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff)
The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Montgomery, AL January 11, 2018 2 The new supply-side economics? In their discussion of monetary policy, participants saw
More informationNational and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference
National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011
Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005
More informationQSPS Conference. May, 2013 Utah State University
QSPS Conference Ayşe Imrohoro¼glu May, 2013 Utah State University QSPS Conference Long-run Japanese Saving Rate 0.30 0.25 Japan 0.20 Saving Rate 0.15 0.10 U.S. 0.05 0.00 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986
More informationO F C E N M JANUARY 1998
O F C E SIMULATION PROPERTIES OF MIMOSA, A MULTI-COUNTRY MACROECONOMIC MODEL N M-98-01 JANUARY 1998 HERVÉ LE BIHAN FRÉDÉRIC LERAIS * * The current version of the MIMOSA model was estimated by a CEPII-OFCE
More informationThe Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya
The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationThe World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade
More informationCanada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers
Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging
More informationImpacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker
Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government
More informationIssues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada
Policy and Economic Analysis Program Rotman School of Management University of Toronto Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Office of the Chief Actuary Canada Pension Plan Seminar September
More informationEconomic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017
Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation
More information