A Rapid Assessment of Kili Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Following January 2011 Coastal Inundation: Implications for Future Vulnerability

A Rapid Assessment of Kili Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Following January 2011 Coastal Inundation: Implications for Future Vulnerability

Table of Contents Executive Summary Kili Objectives Oceanographic/Climate Drivers of the January 2011 Inundation Event Physical Impacts of January 2011 Inundation Event Land Elevation Data Future Vulnerability of Kili Recommendations for Improved Community Hazard Resilience ANNEX 1 ANNEX 2 i 1 1 3 6 7 11 12 15 16

Executive Summary Kili is one of five mid-ocean platform islands within the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). On the evenings of both January 20 th and 21 st 2011 large areas of the island were inundated as a result of marine flooding. Two visits to Kili were undertaken along with a desktop study in order to further understand the physical drivers of the inundation event and the vulnerability of Kili to future inundation. Using both topographic surveys and community consultations the most inundation prone areas of the island were mapped and found to be a central depression within the central sections of the island which is occasionally connected directly to the ocean during high energy conditions. Topographic surveys revealed the island to be low-lying, even relative to other islands in the RMI and is highly vulnerable to future inundation, be it from distant storms, seasonal high tides or sea-level rise. The January 2011 inundation event was driven by a combination of seasonally high tides, known locally as king tides, a region-wide super elevation of sea level as a result of La Niña conditions and a moderate energy wave event from the northwest. None of these conditions alone was particularly unusual in terms of frequency or magnitude. However, the combination of all three occurring at once resulted in a total water level that was high enough to breach the island berm on the northwest section of the island. The bulk of housing on Kili is located on higher elevation sections of the island. However, a number of key assets including the school, airport and some housing are located in low-lying sections of the island which are highly vulnerable to inundation. Resident consultations suggest inadequate warning from central government weather and disaster authorities and Kili-based local government officials and the Kili community. Wave models, La Niña predictions and tide forecasts all suggested that late January 2011 was a period of high inundation risk, yet for many in the community the event occurred without warning or notification. This report recommends the methods of communicating weather related risk needs strengthening in order to provide the community with opportunities to prepare for inundation events. Looking to the future, events such as the January 2011 inundation will occur with increasing frequency and severity. Sea-level rise is expected to accelerate and planning for all future activities on Kili needs to carefully consider not only the present day vulnerability, but also future vulnerability due to higher sea levels. i

Kili Kili Island is one of only 5 mid-ocean reef platform islands in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Mid-ocean reef platform islands are differentiated from atoll islands through the absence of a lagoon. Typically these islands are small, and due to limited resources sustain relatively low populations. Kili is the southernmost platform island in the RMI located at 5 38 N, 169 7 E, approximately 280 km WSW of the capitol island of Majuro. The post WWII history of Kili is both highly complex and contentious. Kili is home to a large population of Bikini Atoll Islanders relocated as a result of radioactive contamination of their traditional home islands. Kili was never intended to serve as a permanent population base and given the size and relative paucity of resources, would unlikely support such a population if it were not for the issues surrounding resident s traditional home islands. Kili is approximately 2000 m long by 500 m wide and has a land area 1 of 0.78 km 2 (192.5 acres). The island is oriented along a NE-SW axis. The reef flat which surrounds the island is generally under 100 m in width, although in the NW corner the reef exceeds 150 m in width. The 2011 population of Kili is XXX, although the population is highly dynamic, with considerable movement between Kili and Majuro. Figure 1. Map of the Marshall Islands showing Kili (5 38 N, 169 07 E) Objectives Kili was subjected to marine inundation on the evening of the 20 th and 21 st of January 2011. The aim of this study is to further understand the mechanisms responsible for this flooding and assess the vulnerability of Kili to future storm and sea-level rise driven inundation. Specific project objectives include: Assess the physical cause of the January 2011 event by examining the meteorological and oceanographic processes operating during the event. Determine the extent of flooding based on a robust, community driven assessment of inundated area. Rapidly assess the topography of Kili to better understand the physical characteristics of Kili which contribute to the susceptibility to inundation Discuss the vulnerability of Kili and provide recommendations for the RMI government, KBE government and Kili community for actions which can mitigate future inundation impacts. Develop a training program to build the capacity of stakeholders in producing assessments of coastal inundation events and recording this information on digital maps. 1

Figure 2. Aerial photo of Kili, 1945. Figure 3. Satellite image of Kili, 2005. Copyright Digital Globe 2011, all rights reserved. Figure 4. Map of Kili based on features derived from 2006 satellite imagery. 2

Oceanographic/Climate Drivers of the January 2011 Inundation Event Local Sea-Level Rise By Pacific standards, RMI has a lengthy and largely complete sea level record. Currently tide gauges are operating at Kwajalein and Majuro atolls. The Kwajalein record extends from June 1946 until present, whereas the Majuro record is a function of two separate records collected by the University of Hawai i Sea Level Center (UHSLC) between October 1968 and December 1999 and by the Australian National Tidal Facility from June 1993 until present. Figure 5 presents the combined Majuro dataset supplied by the UHSLC 2. A linear regression through the monthly data series shows an annual sea level trend of 3.0 mm yr -1 this equates to 1 inch of sea-level rise every 8-9 years and is consistent with global averages. Although the record of sea-level rise is measured at Majuro it is likely that sea-level rise at Kili follows this general trend. ENSO The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is a relative index used to determine the current phase of the El Niño/La Niña cycle. Figure 6 shows the multivariate ENSO index calculated by NOAA 3. Positive values indicate El Niño conditions; while negative indicate La Niña conditions. In the RMI El Niño is associated with sea levels which are typically lower than mean conditions. Conversely, under La Niña conditions sea level is typically higher than the normal sea level. During the January 2011, moderate Figure 5. Long term sea level record from Majuro showing sea level rising at ~3.0 to strong La Niña conditions were mm yr -1 since 1968. present. As a result, the sea level around the RMI was ~10 cm higher than typically encountered (Figure 7). Figure 7 show the Pacific wide sea level anomaly, the anomaly is the difference between the monthly sea level for January 2011 and the average sea level between 1993 and 2010. Figure 6. Multivariate ENSO index used to determine the current phase (El Niño or La Niña) of the ENSO cycle. During early 2011 a moderate to strong La Niña conditions existed. 3

Figure 7. Monthly sea level anomaly for January 2011 showing higher than normal sea level in the western Pacific. Tides During the northern winter, RMI experience spring tides referred to locally as king tides. The highest tides of the year occur between January and March. No tidal predictions are made for Kili, with predictions provided for Jaluit being the closest secondary predictions and Majuro being the closet tide gauge. During 2011 the highest tides were predicted on January 21 st and on February 18 th and 19 th. Records from the Majuro tide gauge support the regional analysis presented in Figure 8, the residual (the difference between observed and predicted tides) was positive during the January inundation event. The tide gauge record shows that sea level was approximately 10 cm higher than predicted at the time of the inundation. Figure 8. Sea level (black line) measured at Majuro between 12 pm 1/19/2011 and 12 pm 1/24/2011. The red line presents the residual sea level, which is the difference between the predict sea level and the measured sea level. Positive values indicate sea level was higher than predicted during the period of inundation. Wave Conditions Wave models provide accurately forecasts of the height, period and direction of incoming waves. Model runs offer forecasts in three hour intervals at spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. This allows for swell events to be predicted with some confidence, often many days prior to the arrival of the swell. Figure 9 shows the output of Wave Watch 3, at the 6 pm local time on the 20 th of January 2011 and indicates moderate wave conditions from the north-northwest. 4

Between April 2009 and August 2011 a wave buoy deployed off Delap point, Majuro 4. This buoy, deployed as part of a National Science Foundation project lead by the University of Hawai i provides real-time measurements of ocean waves. The buoy is directional, which means not only does it measure the height and period of the waves, but also the direction the waves are coming from. Calculations can also determine if waves from multiple directions are impacting the buoy. For example a storm in the north Pacific might generate a northerly swell with a period of 15 seconds at the same time Figure 9. Output of Wave Watch 3 wave model on 1/20/2011 18:00 showing moderate as locally generated wind waves north north-westerly swell. coming from the east with a different period. The wave buoy provides a means for calculating the wave heights and transmitting this information to the users on the internet. Between January 20 th and the 22 nd the wave conditions in Majuro (and assumed for Kili) were characterized by long-period swell waves approaching from the north (Figure 10). Wave heights were not unusually high during the period of flooding, although Hs 5 peaked at over 2.0 m on several occasions. Figure 10. Wave height and peak period between 12:30 pm on 1/20/2011 and 12 pm on 1/22/2011. Wave conditions were characterized by long period waves between 1.5 m and 2.0 m. Long period waves are generally generated from distant weather events and are more likely to cause inundation than short period waves. 5

Summary The sea level during the January 2011 inundation event was unusually high, probably amongst the highest non-storm driven sea level encountered within the recent history of Kili. Seasonally high astronomical tides were further amplified by La Niña conditions. At the time of the inundation wave conditions were moderately energetic, while not an unusual or rare event, when all climate and oceanographic factors occur in unison sea level at Kili was elevated to a level that result in widespread inundation. Physical Impacts of January 2011 Inundation Event Consultations with the community suggest waves breached the low point in the island ridge on the northwestern section of the island and proceeded to inundate areas to the east extending as far as the airport runway. Historically, a low, swampy area existed in areas of the central core of the island, similar to that seen on other reef platform islands such as Jabat. It appears water entered through the breach and proceeded to raise the water level of the swamp which in turn flooded low-lying areas. The area of overwash is characterized by the deposit of sand gravel washed from the reef, beach and island ridge on to the island surface (Figures 11 and 12). No accurate quantitative measures of the vertical flood level or spatial extent of flooding were made at the time of the event. However, community consultations indicate large areas of the island were inundated as a result of salt water incursion through the swamp in the northwest section of Kili. In October, 2011 a follow up event assessment was undertaken using a community-based, scientific assessment to map the extent of the flooded area. Such an approach is quick, simple and utilizes the collective experience of community to provide powerful information after an event. Figure 11. Large area of overwash on the NW side of Kili. Coral rubble and debris were washed as far as 60 m from the island ridge. This low point in the island is likely the historic channel between the swamp and the reef flat; as a result, it is a highly vulnerable to breaching during high tides and wave events. Direction of flood water indicated by red arrow. Methodology Large satellite image prints of Kili were presented to small groups (2-5 people) of the community members who were present on Kili during the January 2011 inundation event. Community members were instructed to shade the areas of the island they recalled were flooded during the January 2011 event. Typically the groups discussed the event at length and appointed one member to draw on the satellite image with the collective agreement of the group. In total 15 groups were interviewed for the assessment. Resultant outputs were photographed for later analysis (Figure 13A). 6

Photographs were then loaded within ArcGIS 6 and the shaded areas digitized as polygons (Figure 13B). Individual polygons were then analyzed in ArcGIS to map the collective wisdom of the 15 groups to determine the flood extent. This involved performing a union of the 15 polygons; this essentially joins all polygons together into one larger polygon. Each section of this larger polygon then has a value ranging between zero and 15. Zero indicates that no groups identified an area as a flooded zone, whereas a value of 15 indicates every group identified this as a flooded zone. Figure 12. Area of overwash on the NW side of Kili. A Results Figure 14 presents the results of the analysis of the 15 community groups interviewed in this analysis. Results suggest a high level (100%) of the community identified the low-elevation swamp as an area subjected to flooding. A large proportion of the groups surveyed indicated that a significant area of the central core of the island as subjected to flooding. Conversely, no groups indicated that the majority of the densely populated coastal village was flooded. B Figure 13. Example of community group assessment of the flooded areas of Kili during the January 2011 inundation event. Panel A shows the area shaded by a community group and B shows a digitized polygon of flooding extent. Land Elevation Data 7 One of the most efficient and effective ways of measuring island height (elevation) is through land surveying. A simple survey approach is to make 2-dimensional profiles that extend from the reef to island surface. A 2-dimensional profile consists of measuring the elevation and distance (relative to the known point) which when combined gives us the form (topography) of the land. A 2-dimensional profile (or island profile) is simply a cross-section of the reef and land collected using survey equipment. It is usually plotted as a scatter graph with connected lines. The x-axis is distance, while the y-axis is elevation (see Figure 16 for an example). If you survey the same profile line at least twice you can establish whether there has been any change. This change can either be through erosion (loss of land) or accretion (gaining land).

Figure 14. Level of collective community agreement of flooded areas as a result of the January 2011 inundation event. The color ramp ranges from blue (low agreement) to red (high agreement) and suggests the central core of the island and the low-elevation swamp in the NW section of the island was considered most likely flooded. Methodology A rapid (2 day) assessment of island elevation was concentrated on the populated section of Kili toward the southwest section of the island. The survey consisted of establishing a network of benchmarks, or points of known position and elevation. From these points the elevation of a number of locations can be measured relative to a known datum. Typically the datum on such a survey would be Mean Sea Level (MSL); however MSL is typically calculated from a tide gauge record or at a minimum, secondary tidal predications. Kili has neither a tide gauge, nor secondary tidal predictions calculated. As a result, the survey team opted to use reef flat elevation as the vertical datum. Reef flat elevation typically reflects the Mean Lowest Low Water (MLLW) level, as reef flat growth is restricted by aerial exposure. Ideally, elevations would be expressed relative to MSL, however, in rapid assessment of this nature it is not always possible to reduce elevations to MSL. When projecting the future impacts of sea-level rise or storms the relative differences in elevation are more critical for the decision making process than absolute measures of elevation. Results Two cross-island profiles were surveyed at locations presented in Figures 16A and 16B. Due to tide levels it was not possible to extend profile B on to the western reef flat. However, profile B extended across the island from the western ridge to the eastern reef flat. Results indicate that the western ridge is highest point of relief on both profiles A and B. Further observations indicate that this trend extends for most of the west coast of Kili. The western ridge is approximately 3.5 4.5 m above MLLW. Eastward from the ridge the terrain dips noticeably, much of the central section of the island is 2 3 m above MLLW. Profile C extends across the overwash deposit which remained after the January 2011 inundation event. The profile extends from the edge of the swamp, across the deposit and over the ridge on to the beach. Figure 17 presents a simplified topographic contour of the village on Kili. This figure is not a scientific contouring of the land area as not enough data was collected to enable this. It is intended to 8

Figure 15. Location of elevation measurements made on Kili. reflect the general topography of the populated area of the island and is useful to guide future work. The highest elevation area is the hill on which the church is located with a maximum elevation of over 7 m above MLLW. This area of higher elevation is relatively small, with most of the village below 4 m above MLLW. The current development of the village reflects the area of highest elevation and there is very little elevated land that has not been developed or built upon. Recent work undertaken on Jabat, a similar sized reef platform island showed the island ridge on the western side of Jabat to range between 2.755 m and 6.3 m above mean low lowest water (MLLW) level. Kili is significantly lower in elevation than Jabat with island ridge on the western side of Kili ranging between 3.62 m and 4.334 m above MLLW. The highest ground level on Kili is the foundation of the church which is 8.47 m above MLLW. 9

West Profile A East Profile B Artificial ridge Profile C Edge of swamp Figure 16. Cross-island elevation profiles A, B, and C, relative to MLLW. 10

Figure 17. Generalized contouring of surveyed area of Kili, relative to the reef crest (MLLW). Future Vulnerability of Kili Sea-Level Rise Sea level has been rising in RMI at a rate of about 3.0 mm/yr, that s about 1 inch every 8.5 years (Figure 18). Sea-level rise will increase both the frequency and magnitude of flooding caused by high tides and storms. There are a variety of scenarios as to the rate of sea-level rise. This project suggests adopting the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) upper level scenario of 59 cm by the year 2100 7,8. Keep in mind that scenarios are revised every few years as the scientific understanding of sea-level rise improves. Many planning authorities are opting for a more conservative approach and projecting the impacts of 100 cm of sea-level rise by 2100. The RMI government and KBE government should be aware of the potential for the IPCC to adjust scenarios and should be prepared to adjust planning accordingly. Figure 18. Observed and projected relative sea-level change near the Marshall Islands. The observed sea level records are indicated in dark blue (relative tide-gauge observations) and light blue (the satellite record since 1993). Reconstructed estimates of sea level near the Marshall Islands (since 1950) are shown in purple. The projections for the A1B (medium) emissions scenario (representing 90% of the range of models) are shown by the shaded green region from 1990 to 2100. The dashed lines are an estimate of 90% of the range of natural year- to-year variability in sea level. Taken from PCCSP report 11

Sea Level Variability and Trends Future sea-level rise will cause an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flooding at Kili. This generally means flooding of the nature of the January 2011 event will happen more often and it will be more severe. Future sea-level rise will likely flood larger areas of the island more regularly. However, there will be a lot of variability in when flooding will occur. The January 2011 event showed the impact of La Niña on elevating sea level. Likewise, during some years (usually El Niño years) the sea level will be temporarily lower and the risk of flooding reduced, but not removed. How vulnerable is Kili to storms and sea-level rise? When examining the vulnerability of an island it is important to consider the factors which ultimately determine the vulnerability. A formula to calculate or simply consider factors contributing to the island vulnerability is given by: Vulnerability = (exposure + sensitivity) adaptive capacity Where the following factors are considered: Exposure- Sensitivity- Adaptive capacity- To what extent an asset is exposed to a hazard. i.e., is an island exposed to inundation? How exposed? i.e., Kili vs Big Island of Hawai i. Does this exposure matter? i.e., an air conditioning unit is highly sensitive to flooding. How well can you respond to the impact? i.e., Majuro has a much higher adaptive capacity to deal with inundation than Wotje as it has access to materials and trained personnel required for an organized response and mitigation planning. This study largely examined the physical exposure of Kili to inundation hazards driven by storms and sea-level rise. A unique comparison to Kili is provided by Jabat Island, a similarly sized mid-ocean reef platform island. Table 1 provides a general comparison between the factors contributing to the vulnerability of Kili and Jabat Islands. Recommendations for Improved Community Hazard Resilience The inundation of Kili during January of 2011 was caused by a moderate energy swell event in unison with spring tides, which were superimposed over a temporary, regional rise in sea level as a result of La Niña conditions as well as a long-term global rise of sea level. When combined these factors elevated sea level and caused waves to breach the island ridge. As a result, a heavily modified swamp was flooded with salt water, which ultimately inundated large areas of the island. Several key community hazard mitigation recommendations from the visit have been made for further review and discussion. There is a need for increased awareness of coastal hazards and potential mitigation strategies within the Kili community. Strengthening the communities understanding of both climate and non-climatic stressors on the Kili environment. 12

Table 1. A generalized comparison of the vulnerability of Kili and Jabat to contemporary and future impacts of storm and sea-level rise driven flooding. Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Vulnerability KILI Moderate: Low-lying island with existing swamp which regularly receives salt water input. Moderate wave energy environment. Infrequent storms. Moderate: Low dependence on locally grown food, inundation damage to crops is not a critical food security issue. Electrical supply system has resulted in wide spread uptake of electrical appliances, air conditioning etc, which are highly sensitive to saltwater. Likewise trucks, cars, heavy equipment are highly sensitive to saltwater exposure. High population density. Moderate-high: Access to heavy equipment to aid in response. Runway for emergency relief. Large population. Greater financial resources. High: Highly exposed to inundation hazards which are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude. A number of highly sensitive assets which can be severely impacted by inundation. Higher level of adaptive capacity to mitigate impacts, respond and adapt. JABAT Moderate: Low-lying island, although higher than Kili. Moderate wave energy environment, slightly more energetic than Kili. Infrequent storms. Moderate: Moderate dependence on locally grown food, so crop damage has an impact on food security. Little use of electricity so impacts on households of minor inundation are minimal. Low population density. Low: Low population with low capacity to respond to inundation events. Difficult location to access and provide relief. Moderate: Less exposed, less sensitive, lower adaptive capacity There is a need for improved forecasting of inundation events throughout RMI, particularly in the outer-islands. The community should have received advanced notice of the high likelihood of inundation during this event. ENSO guidance is issued quarterly 10 and distributed to the RMI government and its agencies. This guidance predicted higher than normal water levels over the 2010/2011 winter. The elevated tide levels were predicted and wave models would have provided a forecast of the arrival of long period waves from the north-northwest. If the community was adequately warned simple preparations for the event including moving electrical equipment above likely flood level and ensuring adequate levels of food and drinking water were available could have been made in anticipation. Kili has access to cellular and internetbased telecommunication technology not generally available to other outer-islands. As such, Kili should be amongst the most well informed communities when it comes to receiving weather information and warnings. However, at the time of the October 2011 assessment communications were unreliable. As such, the purchase of satellite telephone should be considered as temporary 13

measure to improve communication with Majuro for forecasts and emergency communications. Satellite phones are also able to work during disasters when key infrastructure may be damaged. A comprehensive monitoring of shoreline change on Kili should be developed. There is a need for monitoring of the changes in the shoreline around Kili. Increasing sea level will alter the coastline, likely promoting erosion. Scientifically sound information which details the nature of shoreline change enhances the ability to create solutions to mitigate impacts of shoreline change. This type of monitoring program is relatively cheap to establish and can be conducted by trained community members. Another option would be to partner with a research group that can continue monitoring of shoreline change using satellite imagery which has become increasingly cost efficient. There is a need for further elevation data for all of Kili. An exercise of this type should involve better determination of mean sea level with a temporary tide gauge. The most efficient way of doing this type of survey would be to engage an academic institution which has the necessary equipment and expertise. From previous experience a combination of RTK GPS and total station survey equipment would provide the best results. A four man survey team should be able to adequately map the entire island in approximately 6-8 working days, which would build upon the work in this study and provide a high-resolution topographic map of the island to assist with hazard mitigation planning. A shift towards hazard resistant, elevated housing will provide housing that is more resilient and safer in the event of future flooding. Elevated housing may also decrease the need for both local sand/aggregate. Use of local sand/aggregate promotes local erosion and limits the shorelines ability to buffer the island from high wave events. Continued monitoring of the impacts of saltwater intrusion on the islands vegetation. Has this event caused permanent damage to trees/crops, or has vegetation recovered? Some further recommendation worth exploration and future discussion are outlined in the following annexes. 14

ANNEX 1 Community Adaptation Figure 19. Profile view of a conceptual island with lagoonal and ocean side setback zones and raised floor levels, allows for natural island movement. How to adapt property: Basic ways to adapt a community against erosion include set-back zones and raising property floor level. Setback zones allow a shoreline to migrate according to seasons and storm events. Setback zones should be considered for new developments on lagoonal and ocean shoreline. Raising floor level allows flood water to flow under property with minimal damage or risk. Areas with exposure to inundation could be zoned as flood zones with a minimum elevation established for the bottom of the building as is commonly done in the United States through the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps 11. Design Considerations and options: A risk assessment should be carried out along all shoreline, evaluating the state of erosion or risk of inundation. A systematic approach to warning the Kili community of potential inundation events. Outlined below. Leaving a native vegetation buffer will increase the level of protection and stabilize the shoreline. All new houses to be constructed on poles with a floor level a minimum 1m or higher above ground level. All replacement air conditioning units to be installed at least 1 m above ground level. All households should have a flood emergency plan, including keeping food, water and nonelectrified (gas) cooking apparatus in their house. All households should have equipment necessary to elevate electrical appliances, particularly refridgerators and ovens/ranges at least 1 m above floor level. This could consist of concrete blocks and sturdy plywood base that can be installed below the appliance in the event of inundation. Raise community awareness about what to do in the event of a flood and actions that can be taken to mitigate some of the impacts of the inundation events. Develop a plan with the church leaders to utilize the elevated church facility as a shelter with basic supplies stored there. Designate a community leader to maintain telecommunication equipment, communicate warnings and educate the community on these measures. 15

ANNEX 2 A Simple Plan for Inundation Prediction, Warning, and Response Consultations with community suggest few people were aware of the immediate potential of inundation associated with the January event. The lack of adequate warning or notification of the potential for inundation was a key concern raised during the October assessment. While there are many variables which determine the frequency and magnitude of inundation there are underlying conditions which increase the risk of inundation. This increased risk needs to be effectively communicated to the Kili community in order for adequate preparations to be implemented to mitigate potential impacts. The following is a suggested course of action which could be modified for the KBE government and Kili community, consider it the starting point for discussion rather than a implementable plan. The system utilizes long range forecasts of sea level based on tidal predictions and ENSO outlooks, combined with wave forecasts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). A simple scheme is proposed whereby days are classified as yellow, orange or red based on the potential risk of inundation. The scheme proposes potential actions to be taken by the National Disaster Committee, KBE government and Kili community based on the potential for inundation. Red days Maximum tidal level exceeds that typically associated with tidal inundation. An orange day coinciding with a predicted significant swell event as defined by NWS. Any meterological or oceanographic warning issued by NWS or National Disaster Office. Orange days Maximum tidal elevation is below the level associated with flooding. However, the day following or the day preceding red days should be classified orange to allow careful monitoring of ocean conditions. Yellow days Maximum tide level is below that typically associated with a breach of the island ridge which separates the swamp from the beach. (determine value based on historic events). If this was to be undertaken in Majuro (see Figure 20) a water level below 2.00 m above tide gauge zero would constitute a yellow day. Suggested actions by the National Disaster Office/NWS, KBE government and local community are outlined in Table 2. 16

Table 2. Suggested actions to be undertaken by RMI government, KBE government, and Kili community to better prepare for hazardous inundation events. YELLOW ORANGE RED National Weather Service/National Disaster Office Maintain/deliver forecasts provide quarterly ENSO guidance. Maintain/deliver forecasts. Provide swell outlook Maintain/deliver forecasts. Provide swell outlook (timing and size). Maintain contact with KBE hazards team to document possible impacts Advise community of necessary preparations. Document event. Provide feedback to National Disaster Office. KBE Government Hazards Team Ensure community is aware of hazards and preparations the community should be making Observe flood prone areas 3 hrs, 1 hr and 0 hours before high tide. If flooding appears likely advise community and National Disaster Office. Ensure adequate supplies of food, water, cooking equipment are available in the event of a disaster. Prepare to receive guidance from Hazards team. Kili Community Ensure adequate supplies of food, water, cooking equipment are available in the event of a disaster. Prepare to raise all electrical appliances off ground level. Prepare a plan on how to reach safe part of the island. 17

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References 1 Measured using the edge of vegetation line from a 2005 satellite image. 2 http://ilikai.soest.hawaii.edu/uhslc/ 3 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/mei/ 4 Currently the Majuro wave buoy is inactive due to maintenance requirements, it is anticipated that it will be redeployed in 2012. 5 Hs refers to Significant wave height. It is the average height of the highest 33% of waves measured and is the most common measure of wave height used. Peak or maximum wave height would be considerably higher than Hs. 6 ArcGIS is a Geographic Information System (GIS). It is a high performance suite of tool for geographic and spatial information analysis. Within the RMI certain government agencies (RMIEPA, OEPPC and EPPSO) have GIS tools and experienced users. 7 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-6-5.html 8 http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/pccsp/nov/vol2_ch7_marshallislands1.pdf 9 http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/pccsp/pdf/8_pccsp_marshall_islands_8pp.pdf The Australian run Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and local meteorological agencies produced a summary on climate change in the RMI which is appended to this document 10 http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/update.php 11 http://www.fema.gov/hazard/map/firm.shtm 19

Acknowledgements A report prepared by Dr. Murray Ford, University of Hawai i Sea Grant College Program. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the University of Hawai i Sea Grant College Program, NOAA, College of the Marshall Islands or any other supporting agencies. Project support provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Coastal Storms Program through an institutional grant. UNIHI-SEAGRANT-TT-11-06 20