Crises and 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries Fridtjof Unander, International Energy Agency ISED Meeting, UN, 13 September 2004
Aim of the Study Review of trends in energy use and CO 2 emissions since IEA was founded 30 years ago Based on IEA Energy Indicator Database Looks in detail at how energy efficiency and factors such as economic activity and structure, lifestyle, prices and fuel mix have shaped developments Provide a state-of-the-art publication on energy use developments
Sector & End-use Coverage Total Economy Residential Travel Freight Services Manufacturing Space Heat Water Heat Cooking Lighting Refrigerators Freezers Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Cars & Light Trucks Buses Passenger Rail Inland Air Travel Trucks Services total Freight Rail Domestic Shipping Paper & Pulp Industrial Chemicals Non-metallic Minerals Iron & Steel Non-ferrous Metals Food & Beverages Other Dishwashers Other Appliances
How to Understand Aggregate Trends? IEA s Decomposition Approach A S j I j Energy Service E = A? Sj * Ij Energy Savings sectoral activity sectoral structure or mix of activities within a sub-sector j energy intensity of each sub-sector or end-use j Use Laspeyres indices to follow changes over time Can be extended to economy-wide indices (weighting sector indices at base-year values)
Key Findings Significant energy savings achieved through the late 1980s. Since 1990 energy savings rates have slowed in all sectors. Only a few countries still show a strong decoupling of CO 2 emissions from GDP growth after 1990. price shocks in the 1970s did more to reduce emissions and to increase efficiency than achieved by policies implemented in the 1990s. As a consequence, CO 2 emissions are now growing rapidly along with oil and electricity demand.
Energy Demand in IEA-11 160 exajoules 140 120 100 80 60 40 Actual energy use 20 0 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Moderate growth in demand since 1973
Energy Demand and Savings IEA -11 160 140 120 100 Additional energy use without savings 50% exajoules 80 60 40 Actual energy use 20 0 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher
IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings Average Annual % Growth 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savings Energy Savings Actual Energy Use 0,0% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth
Economy-wide Intensity Effect 110% 1973 energy intensity effect = 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Japan US EUR-8 Intensity effect fell by about 30% in all three regions
110% Energy Intensity Effects by Sector IEA - 11 1973 energy intensity effects = 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Freight Transport Passenger Travel Total Service Households Manufacturing Declines in energy intensities have slowed in all sectors since the late 1980s
Changes in Final Energy Consumption 1973-1998, 1998, IEA-11 2,5% Average % Change per Year 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% Manufacturing Households Services Travel Freight Total Manufacturing only sector with decline in energy use
Manufacturing Output IEA-11 Manufacturing Value - Added, 1973=100% 210% 190% 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% Manufacturing Output Raw Materials Share of Manufacturing Output Manufacturing Share of GDP 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Manufacturing roughly maintains its share of GDP 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% Manufacturing Share of GDP & Raw Materials Share of Manufacturing Value-Added
IEA-11 Energy Intensities, Value-Added and Energy Shares Intensity (MJ/1995 US$, PPP) 60 50 40 30 20 10 1998 Energy Intensities 1998 Value Added Shares 1998 Energy Shares 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Energy & Value-Added Shares (%) 0 Paper & Pulp Chemicals Nonmetallic Minerals Primary Metals Food, Beverages, Tobacco Other Manufacturing Total Manufacturing Energy-intensive industries contribute little to overall output, but has a large share of total energy use 0%
Energy Savings and Structural Change IEA - 11 Manufacturing Average % Change per Year 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Actual Energy Output Actual/Output Structure Intensity -4% -5% 1973-1982 1982-1990 1990-1994 1994-1998 Recent trends: Slowing decline in intensities, but important impact from structural changes
Manufacturing Energy Intensity (Adjusted for Structural Changes) 110% 1973 structure adjusted intensity = 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Japan 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 US IEA-11 EUR-8 Declines in energy intensities slowed markedly since late-1980s
Changes in Demand by Sector IEA -11 3% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Manufacturing Households Service Travel Freight Total 1973-1990 1990-1998 Growth in transport offset by declines in stationary sectors
Car Ownership and Income 1970-2000 0.8 0.7 Car Ownership (vehicle/capita) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Personal Consumption Expenditures per Capita (1000 1995 US$, PPP/capita) US Italy Australia Sweden France Finland UK Norway Netherlands Denmark Japan Strong growth most places, slowly leveling off in the US
Energy for Cars (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 1973-1998 1998 3% Average % Change per Year 2% 1% 0% -1% Cars per Capita km/year per car -2% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Strong growth in car ownership while the use of each car has changed little
Energy for Cars (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 1973-1998 1998 3% Average % Change per Year 2% 1% 0% -1% Cars per Capita km/year per car Fuel Intensity Car Energy Use per capita -2% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Decline in fuel intensity has slowed.
Energy for Cars (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 1973-1998 1998 3% Average % Change per Year 2% 1% 0% -1% Cars per Capita km/year per car Fuel Intensity Effect Car Energy Use per capita -2% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Net result is more rapid growth in fuel demand after 1990 despite lower growth in car ownership
Car Stock-average Fuel Intensity Fleet average fuel intensity of cars (litres/100 vehicle-km) 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 US Canada Australia Japan Norway UK Netherlands Finland France Denmark Italy Strong decline in the US until 1990, no change since then
New Car Fuel Intensity 13 New car fuel intensity (litres/100 vehicle-km) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 US (Light trucks) Australia Japan US (cars) Sweden UK Germany Italy France Small changes since early 1980s, but positive development recently in EU and Japan
Car Fuel Use per Capita vs. Price, 1998 55 50 Fuel use per capita (gigajoules/capita) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 US Canada Japan Australia Germany Denmark 10 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 Weighted real fuel price, including taxes (US$/litre) UK Finland Norway Sweden France Italy Netherlands Energy use for cars is higher where prices are lower
Travel and Intensities vs. Fuel price Thousand vehicle-km per capita 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 US Italy Finland UK Netherlands Sweden Norway Denmark France Germany Australia Canada Japan 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Weighted Real Fuel Price (US$/litre) Fleet Average Vehicle Fuel Intensity (litres/100vkm 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 Japan Sweden UK Canada Norway Australia Italy Germany Finland Netherlands US France Denmark 6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Weighted Real Fuel Price (US$/litre) Higher fuel prices correlate with lower fuel intensity
Freight Energy per tonne-km by Mode 5 4 Trucks Rail Ships 3 Megajoules / tonne-km 2 1 0 US Australia Japan EUR-8 UK France Germany Trucks use far more energy per tonne-km than rail or ships Italy
Electricity Demand by Sector, IEA-11 5,0% 100% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Manufacturing Households Service Total 1973-1990 1990-1998 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 22% 31% 31% 33% 45% 35% 1973 1998 Strong growth in electricity demand in all stationary sectors
House Area and Income 1970-1998 1998 60 Square meters of house area per capita 50 40 30 20 Australia Canada Denmark Finland France Italy Japan Norway Sweden UK US 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Personal consumption expenditures per capita (1000 1995 US$,PPP) Living space gets bigger as we get richer
Energy for Space Heating (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 2% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 1% 0% -1% -2% Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect -3% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Bigger homes and fewer people per home steady drivers of space heating demand
Energy for Space Heating (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 2% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 1% 0% -1% -2% Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect Conversion Efficiency Intensity Effect -3% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Declines in intensities are slowing.
Energy for Space Heating (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 2% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 1% 0% -1% -2% Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect Conversion Efficiency Intensity Effect Space Heating per Capita -3% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Net result is an increase in per capita heating demand after 1990
Household Electricity Demand IEA-11 7 Electricity use (exajoules) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Appliances Lighting Cooking Water Heating Space Heating Appliances key driver of electricity demand
Energy Costs and Savings Falling prices and successful energy savings have helped reducing energy budgets for industry and private consumers since the early 1980s: uenergy s share of production cost in industry fell as much as 50% uenergy cost as share of income for private homes fell 20-50% ufuel cost per km for cars fell by 20 to 60% Can explain less incentive to sustain energy savings after 1990.
Share of Energy Expenditures in Subsector Intermediate Product Costs Share of energy expenditures in sub-sectoral intermediate product costs (%) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1982 1998 France Japan UK US France Japan UK US Paper & Pulp Chemicals Nonmetallic Minerals Primary Metals Other Manufacturing The share of energy in total production costs varies significantly across countries and sub-sectors, but has fallen everywhere
Fuel Cost for Driving Private Cars US$ (real terms, including taxes)/car-km 0.14 Fuel Cost (1995 US$, PPP/Car-km) 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Fuel cost per km have generally fallen since the early 1980s NORWAY GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE DENMARK US
Household Energy Expenditures as Share of Income Energy s share of total personal consumption expenditures (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Sweden Denmark Norway Canada France UK Japan US IEA households today spend considerably less of their incomes on energy than in the early 1980s
IEA CO 2 Emissions 1973-2001 120% CO2 Emissions in 1990 = 100% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 0.1%/year 1.1%/year 85% 80% 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Recent trends show steady increase
IEA CO 2 Emissions per GDP 1973-2001 0.9 CO2/GDP (kg CO2/USD) 0.8 0.7 0.6-2.6 %/year -1.2 %/year 0.5 0.4 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Rate of decline has slowed since 1990
IEA-11 CO2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings Average Annual % Growth 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% Less carbon in fuel mix Energy Savings Actual Emissions 0,0% 1973-1990 1990-1998 Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990
CO2 Emissions and Kyoto US, Japan and EU Average Annual % Change 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% -1,0% -1,5% -2,0% 1973-1990 1990-1998 1998-2001 2001-2010 (Kyoto) -2,5% -3,0% US Japan EU Recent development in stark contrast to what is implied by the Kyoto targets
CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings Average Annual % Change 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% US Energy service demand effect Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings EU-7-2% -3% 1973-1990 1990-1998 1973-1990 1990-1998 Growth in the demand for energy services higher after 1990 in the US, opposite trend in the EU
CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings 4% US EU-7 Average Annual % Change 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings Fuel Mix Effect -3% 1973-1990 1990-1998 1973-1990 1990-1998 Significant reduction of emissions due to a less carbon intensive fuel mix in EU
CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings 4% US EU-7 Average Annual % Change 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings Fuel Mix Effect Energy Savings Effect 1973-1990 1990-1998 1973-1990 1990-1998 Slowing energy savings rates.
CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings 4% US EU-7 Average Annual % Change 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings Fuel Mix Effect Energy Savings Effect Actual Emissions 1973-1990 1990-1998 1973-1990 1990-1998 Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990
IEA End-use Data Modelling Applications World Energy Outlook: uallows for disaggregated demand side representation in WEM uallows for estimation of policy impacts in Alternative Scenario Energy Technology Perspectives Project uprovides basis for demand side in global MARKAL model u Energy Model Builder Linking energy statistics and other data to demand modules by sector