Semi Autonomous Vehicles & V2X James Kuhr, Esq. Acknowledgements: TxDOT, D-STOP, NCTCOG, McCombs School of Business, Dr. Chandra Bhat, Dr. Kara Kockelman
Increase in Roadway Safety Increase in Network Effects Increase in Safety Effects Levels of Autonomy Level 1 Adaptive Cruise Control Level 2 Adaptive Cruise Control + Lane Assist Level 3 Open Road Automated Vehicle Level 4 Generally Hands Off Driving Level 5
Market Shares US Market Share Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 20% 2016 2021 16% 2016 2021 13% 2016 2020 12% 2016 2021 9% 2016 2020 7% 2016 2018 2020 7% 2016 2020 2022 3% 2016 2020 2% 2016 2017 2021 2018 (ride sourcing) Others: Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2016 2025 2016 2021 2016 2017 2020 2016 2017 2018 2016 2018 2019 2020 https://ctr.utexas.edu/wp-content/uploads/122.pdf
Disruptor: X - sharing Van Sharing Car Sharing Vehicle Miles Traveled should go up with new Carpooling modes of transportation
V2V Communications (DSRC)
V2X Safety Benefits Through use of just V2V BSM to warn drivers, with a mature system, NHTSA studies indicate that up to 79% of unimpaired crashes could be avoided. Using just a V2I communication system, NHTSA estimates that 26% of unimpaired crashes could be avoided. Together, NHTSA studies indicate that 81% of all unimpaired crashes could be avoided with a fully mature V2V and V2I system. FHWA ITS JPO Prediction By 2029, seven years after the projected phase-in of the light vehicle V2V rule, 60% of all vehicles, or a cumulative 146 million cars, will have DSRC/V2X equipment. Adoption of aftermarket/consumer electronics DSRC devices will outpace factory installed DSRC within five to six years after a NHTSA Light Vehicle V2V rule requiring 100% of all new vehicles to be equipped with V2V. https://ntl.bts.gov/lib/60000/60500/60535/fhwa-jpo-17-487_final_.pdf
Where Are We Now? http://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/api/public/viewp ublication/812318
Electronic Stability Control Mandatory in 2012 Designed to prevent roll-over accidents (2% of total accidents) In 2010, ESC saved 682 lives (27% penetration) In 2014, ESC saved 1580 lives (48% penetration) Technologies work, they just take a long time to diffuse through markets Sources: NHTSA, IIHS
Accidents Types & ADAS/V2X Pre-Crash Scenario % of Total % of Total Cost ADAS Solution CV Solution Lead Vehicle Accelerating 4.24% 19.17% X X Control Loss With Prior Vehicle Action 1.03% 8.53% X Road Edge Departure With Prior Vehicle Maneuver 1.34% 7.94% X X LTAP/OD at Non-Signalized Junctions 1.98% 6.55% X Straight Crossing Paths at Non-Signalized Junctions 1.23% 5.41% X Lead Vehicle Stopped 2.15% 4.84% X X Control Loss Without Prior Vehicle Action 6.22% 4.48% X Lead Vehicle Decelerating 0.74% 4.24% X X Vehicle(s) Changing Lanes - Same Direction 3.91% 4.11% X X Lead Vehicle Moving at Lower Constant Speed 3.19% 3.74% X X Vehicle(s) Making a Maneuver - Opposite Direction 1.44% 3.60% X Other 1.34% 3.21% Once cars are connected and automated, Estimates of Economic Cost Savings, conservatively: 75% of costs could be addressed through ADAS and vehicle to vehicle communication https://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/trb16cavsafety.pdf
Studies on ADAS Effects http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/crashes-avoided-frontcrash-prevention-slashes-police-reported-rear-end-crashes https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2016/incla-pe16007-7876.pdf
Insurance Claim Frequency ADAS http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/crash-avoidance-features-reduce-crashesinsurance-claims-study-shows-autonomous-braking-and-adaptive-headlights-yield-biggestbenefits
AEB Availability (majority of models) US Market Share Optional Standard 20% 2017 2022 16% 2018 2022 13% 2016 2017 12% 2017 2022 9% 2017 2020 7% 2016 2017 7% 2018 2022 3% 2017 2022 2% 2016 2017 Optional Standard 2017 2022 2016 2022 2016 2019 2014 2017 2016 2017 2020 https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/whereautomakers-stand-on-automatic-emergency-braking-pledge/
Toyota Toyota Safety Sense, standard on all new models Pre-Collision system Lane Departure Alert Automatic High Beams Pre-Collision system with Pedestrian Detection Dynamic Radar Cruise Control 90% Reduction in Rear-End Collissions http://www.nasdaq.com/article/toyota-announces-toyota-safety-sense-and-icssafety-support-technologies-that-together-reduce-20170827-00118
Adoption Takes 10-15 years to renew the on-road fleet Semi autonomous is less about behavior, and more about government mandates and OEM offerings Look at the case of Electronic Stability Control
Electronic Stability Control
IIHS Projection
Connected Vehicle Adoption Curve 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 % Veh w/ DSRC % w/ Safety Apps it is worth noting that in case of no regulations, even at 10% annual drop in technology prices and no-zero, but constant [Willingness To Pay] 83.5% [of vehicles] would have connectivity in 2045 Bansal & Kockleman
A Few Closing Thoughts Insurance is not going away Commercial Vehicles will convert first Yes, AVs are more expensive to build in some cases - but these are the cars that will be in fewer crashes There will be an extended period of mixed traffic There are 315,000 claims adjusters, appraisers examiner and investigators in the United States 40,000 collision body shops 20% of Organ Donations are from car accidents Many markets are going to be affected https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/api/public/viewpublication/812013
Thanks My Email: jkuhr@utexas.edu Center for Transportation Research We Partner to do Research on Private Sector Business Issues Related to New Transportation