Investigating Precarious Employment in Rural Ontario Valencia Gaspard, PhD Student University of Guelph
A reminder - what is it? Unpredictable work schedules Impermanent jobs Low-paying No or little benefits No training/opportunities High turnover (quicker termination) Low employee engagement Low worker advocacy (no Union or collective voice) Neoliberal employment trend
The Team Dr. Al Lauzon Carol Kenny Dr. Heather Mair Dr. Miana Plesca Dr. Ray Bollman Dr. Ryan Gibson The Advisory Group
The Plan Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Contextual Analysis Review employment trends 1999-2015 Consider different census divisions Case Studies What is the precarious work experience in rural communities? Key informant interviews Report Capture experiences Discuss success strategies
What have we learned?
It s happening.
Within the 12 months up to September, 2016, the number of paid employees with a contract or term job varied between 401 and 466 thousand, Ontario 550 500 450 400 350 300 Number of paid employees with a term or contract job (,000) (excluding students) (15+ yr.) All census divisions,ontario Number employed: contract or term job MAX: previous 12 months 250 200 MIN: previous 12 months 150 100 50 0 MAX minus MIN: within-year variation 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Students are excluded. Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, special tabulation. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
There is an increase in the number of workers with a term or contract job in each age group, Ontario 350 300 250 Number employed with a term or contract job (,000) (excluding students) All census divisions, Ontario Age 15-24 yr. 36MMA Age 15-24 yr. Age 25-54 yr. 200 150 36MMA Age 25-54 yr. Age 55-64 yr. 100 36MMA Age 55-64 yr. Age 65+ yr. 50 0 36MMA Age 65+ yr. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Students are excluded. Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, special tabulation. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 8
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 In non-metro census divisions, the number of workers with a term or contract job increased in the 65+ age group but has declined in recent years in the other age groups Number employed with a term or contract job (,000) (excluding students) Non-metro census divisions, Ontario Age 15-24 yr. 36MMA Age 15-24 yr. Age 25-54 yr. 36MMA Age 25-54 yr. Age 55-64 yr. 36MMA Age 55-64 yr. Age 65+ yr. 5 0 36MMA Age 65+ yr. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Students are excluded. Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, special tabulation. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 9
There is an increase in the number of workers with a low wage job in each age group, Ontario 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Number employed with a low wage (,000) (under 1.5 times the minimum wage) (excluding students) All census divisions, Ontario Age 15-24 yr. 36MMA Age 15-24 yr. Age 25-54 yr. 36MMA Age 25-54 yr. Age 55-64 yr. 300 200 100 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Note: Students are excluded. "Low wage" is defined as less than 1.5 times the minimum wage. Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, special tabulation. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 36MMA Age 55-64 yr. Age 65+ yr. 36MMA Age 65+ yr. Date: increase in minimum wage RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 10
In non-metro census divisions, there is an increasing trend in the number of low wage workers only for those ages 55 + 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Number employed with a low wage (,000) (under 1.5 times the minimum wage) (excluding students) Non-metro census divisions, Ontario Age 15-24 yr. 36MMA Age 15-24 yr. Age 25-54 yr. 36MMA Age 25-54 yr. Age 55-64 yr. 36MMA Age 55-64 yr. Age 65+ yr. 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Note: Students are excluded. "Low wage" is defined as less than 1.5 times the minimum wage. Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, special tabulation. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 36MMA Age 65+ yr. Date: increase in minimum wage RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 11
Demographic replacement of working age population fell below 100% in 2009, non-metro Ontario 250 Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age) 200 150 100 50 Metro Non-metro 0 *Data for 1996 to 2000 are classified according to the 2006 grid for CMA boundaries and data since 2001 are classified according to the 2011 grid for CMA boundaries. Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0056. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
Self-Employment
7,000 Number employed (000) 1.1 million self-employed workers in Ontario, December, 2016 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Employees Self-employed 2,000 1,000-1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table 282-0011. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
1,200 Number employed (000) 1.1 million self-employed workers in Ontario, December, 2016 Self-employed 1,000 800 600 400 200-1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Self-employed unincorporated, no paid help Self-employed incorporated, with paid help Self-employed incorporated, no paid help Self-employed unincorporated, with paid help Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table 282-0011. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
Self-Employment Number self-employed people in Ontario is increasing Percent self-employed was highest in late 1990s, then declined somewhat to mid-2000s, increased somewhat during 2008-2009 recession and has not increased since then When things get tough, people work for themselves
Hearing the stories. www.ruralprecariousemployment.wordpress.com