How It Works!
Introduction As pro- bettors, we don t just want to find the winners in races, we want to find the winners that are going to make us a profit. This report is going to share with you a strategy that does exactly that! The method outlined here is based on the power of speed figures. In the UK we only use speed figures a small amount in comparison to racing around the rest of the world. Why do we use speed figures? Ultimately the fastest horse in the race wins. By using speed figures we are predicting the fastest horses in the race. Commentators would tell you that this is because the vibrant racing in the UK, with horses from all over the world and varying track configurations, makes it much harder for us to create accurate speed figures and use them effectively. To a certain extent this is true. We cannot simply create speed figures in exactly the same way as other countries. It is also true that if we were to try and replicate the big teams in other countries, it wouldn t work. After all, our racing is different. But, we don t have to replicate the big teams! We take their knowledge, learn from it and adjust it to suit the racing that we have in the UK. Doing this we create a selection process that is incredibly effective and used by very few! There is no better situation for the punter who wants to make a profit, than to be using a selection process that is completely different to everyone else. Over the following pages I will show you a strategy which does this to deadly effect. Al l the best,
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Table of Contents Introduction... 2 Disclaimer... 3 Creating Speed Figures... 5 Standard Times... 5 Calculate Finish Times For All Runners... 6 Calculate Going Allowance... 6 Make Other Adjustments... 6 Produce Final Speed Rating... 7 Now We Have Speed Figures, How Do We Find Winners?... 8 Quick Strategy Overview... 8 Introducing You To The Strategy... 8 Step 1 Getting The Data... 9 Step 2 Removing Non- Contenders... 12 Step 3 Deciding If We Are Going To Bet In This Race... 19 Step 4 Choosing Which Horse To Bet On... 19 How do we make our choice?... 21
Creating Speed Figures Our strategy starts with the creation of speed figures. Creating speed figures requires a number of steps and I could write a complete book on this subject alone. There have been many which have already been written and if you want the intricate details of speed figure creation then I would strongly suggest reading them. Here, I am going to give an overview of the steps involved so that you can see what goes into the creation of a speed figure and decide if it is something you want to learn how to do, or let others do for you! Speed figure creation can be put into 5 major steps. These are 1. Create Standard Times 2. Calculate the finish times for all runners 3. Calculate the going allowance 4. Allow for extra criteria e.g. Weight, Wind etc if you wish 5. Produce final speed figure Standard Times The first problem we face when creating speed figures is that it is impossible to compare a finish time at two different courses. Even if the races were run over the same distance and race type, the differences in the courses means that they are going to put different strains on the runners. To solve this problem, we create Standard Times, and the accuracy of these figures will ultimately determine how good your speed figures are. Due to the amount of work to create standard times it is common for people to try and compile the standard times quickly. A big mistake! For each course you need to calculate a standard time for each distance and race type combination that runs on the track. At the time of writing this, I have that recorded as a possible 1644 combinations. Standard Times will also change over time. This means that they need to be cross- checked regularly to make sure that no adjustments need to be made in order to make sure they are still the best they can be. The creation of Standard Times is not just technical, it also requires some artistic skill and knowledge of the sport to be able to spot incorrect times and manually adjust them. For this reason, different producers of these figures may get different times. As long as they are consistently using their Standard Times to create the speed figures and their approach stays the same then this shouldn t be a problem.
While Standard Times are very important in the creation of speed figures, the accuracy of the final speed figures are based on a lot of other criteria as well. Calculate Finish Times For All Runners The racing industry like to make us work for our profits in the UK. In most countries every horse is given a finish time. After all, it can t be that difficult to continue the clock until all runners have crossed the line! However, we only get the finish time for the winner of the race. For the rest of the horses we have to make do with the distance behind the winner that they came. This means that we need to then estimate each horses finish time individually. Sometimes this step can be skipped depending on how you are creating the speed figures. Quite often the ratings compiler will calculate a speed figure for the winner and then use the distance behind the winner to calculate the speed figures for the other runners. Personally I like to estimate the finish time for each horse as this works better with the way I create my ratings. Ultimately both work, it is just a matter of which works better for you. Calculate Going Allowance One of the biggest factors that affect a race is the condition of the ground or the going. It is not possible to compare a race in heavy going to a race on firm going. In order to be able to compare horses running over different goings with each other we make an adjustment called a Going Allowance. We do this by using our standard times and the finish time of the winner to estimate how much faster/slower the ground was causing the horses to run. If you are calculating your speed figures by creating one for the winner and basing the other runners on this then you would adjust the winners finish time to allow for the going allowance. If you are doing it using the times that each horse finished the race, then you adjust each horses finishing time. Make Other Adjustments There are many different elements that you can adjust speed ratings for. Some examples are weight, draw and wind.
Different people have different preferences. Some try to adjust for everything possible and others don t make any further adjustments outside of course, distance and going. Personally, I don t make any further adjustments and here is my reasoning We MUST adjust for course, race type, distance and going if we are going to be able to compare the figures. Without knowing the body weight of each horse individually it is impossible to know how much it is likely to affect that horse. Weight on a bigger horse will affect it comparatively less than on a smaller one. Wind/rain etc are impossible to measure with any form of accuracy. How do you know how much the wind has slowed a horse down? If it did slow it down at one part of the track then it may have sped it up at another when the wind was behind it. How do you measure that accurately for thousands of races every year? You don t! Ratings have enough estimates in them anyway, I like to keep them as pure as possible to try and reduce this. Produce Final Speed Rating The final step, of course, is to produce the speed rating for each of the runners. This figure will be directly comparable with all horses. Although, as you will find out in the following pages, that is not the best way to do it!
Now We Have Speed Figures, How Do We Find Winners? Once we have created speed figures, or found ones we are happy to use, we then get onto finding our winners. I always recommend making your own speed figures or using high quality ones. However, I know that this is something some people do not want to do and so in the examples below I have used the Racing Post speed figures. Quick Strategy Overview Before we begin jumping into how to find the winners I am going to give you an overall view of what we are going to be doing and why this works. We are going to be creating graphs for our horses. These graphs are going to allow us to visualise a race in a way that would not otherwise be possible. The graphs will contain speed ratings and the confidence intervals for these speed ratings. Don t worry if you are unsure what a confidence interval is. I have provided spreadsheets that do all the calculations for you. With a few simple techniques this will allow you to remove the horses that have no chance of winning the race, and find those horses with the strongest chance of winning the race. Those horses with the strongest chance of winning the race we will call Contenders. We can then apply some rules which will allow us to determine whether it is a race to bet on and how we should be betting on it. Introducing You To The Strategy The graphs are key in allowing us to find profitable horses successfully. Those of you who may have tried trading before will be familiar with candle graphs. We are going to be using a very simple version of them. I have prepared a spreadsheet for you to help you create them even faster.
The first thing we need to do is to choose a race to analyse. This method will work on any type of race but it is particularly suited to sprints over the all weather or the flat. Until you have more experience in using this strategy I suggest that you stick to sprint races on the all- weather and flat. Again, while you can use this strategy on fields of all sizes, the larger the field the more experience you need and so I would suggest you limit the number of runners in the race to 12. For these reasons we shall be focusing on using this strategy on 5 furlong and 6 furlong races over the flat with 12 or less runners in. Finally, we want horses with as much history as possible. For this reason avoid Maiden races. Step 1 Getting The Data In order to create the graphs we need to get the data to enter into the spreadsheet. Start by opening the Confidence Levels Calculator.xlsx If you have an older version of Excel or are using Open Office or another spreadsheet program, then you may need to use the file Confidence Level Calculator.xls When you open this file you will be displayed with the screen Next we want to visit the Racing Post or any other horse racing site of your choice that provides speed figures.
Above you can see that the race is a 5 furlong flat race at Beverley with 10 runners. We shall be using this race as our example for using the strategy. We now need to find the last 6 speed ratings for the horse. But we are only interested in speed ratings that were achieved within the last year. To get this we open up the details for the horse by clicking on its name.
As you can see above this gives us the history for the horse. The column we are interested in is the TS column. This is the Racing Post s speed figure column. We open our Confidence Interval Calculator and for Horse 1 enter the last six figures for Media Jury as follows In the column Speed Figure 1 you enter the most recent speed figures for each horse. In Speed Figure 2 you enter the second most recent speed figures for each horse. Repeat this for as many speed figures you have for each horse, up to six.
In the image above you can see that I have entered the figures for Media Jury. Next too each Speed Figure column you have the UC and LC columns. These stand for Upper Confidence and Lower Confidence columns and indicate the highest and lowest the speed figure could have been with 90% confidence. We shall be using these later on to help us find our selections. Repeat this process for each horse in the race until you have entered all the horses details into the calculator. Once you have completed this you will be ready for the next step. Step 2 Removing Non- Contenders Now that we have all the data we need entered in the calculator, you need to change to the Graphs tab. This is located at the bottom of the spreadsheet as indicated in the image below.
Once you have selected this you are going to be presented with a graph for each horse in the race. These graphs display the information from our speed figures for each horse. They are read from left to right with the most recent race on the far right. At the top of each graph is the Minimum For Race Contenders. In our example race the Minimum For Race Contenders is 74. We are going to remove any horse who does not have this number or higher at the top of one of its lines.
Horse 1 has got the numbers 71, 83, 84, 39, 44, 126. Three of these are higher than 74 and so this horse stays as a possible selection. Horse 2 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection.
Horse 3 has three top numbers of 74 or higher and so is kept. Horse 4 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection.
Horse 5 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection. Horse 6 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection.
Horse 7 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection. Horse 8 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection.
Horse 9 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection. Horse 10 does not have any top numbers of 74 or higher and so is removed as a possible selection. After going through the graphs we have two horses that can be considered for selections in this race. These are Horse 1 (Media Jury) and Horse 3 (Elusive Bonus).
Step 3 Deciding If We Are Going To Bet In This Race Our aim is not to bet in every single race. Our aim is to make a profit. For this reason we are going to ignore any races that have more than 3 possible selections after completing step 2. Step 4 Choosing Which Horse To Bet On In this step we are going to choose which horse to bet on. However, sometimes we may want to bet on more than one runner. This could be two runners, or even sometimes three. We are only going to be betting on one runner if it is clearly better than our other possible selections. We are looking for two things in this stage. We want to confirm whether the horse has been improving recently, and if it has past performances that it can regularly run to the minimum required speed in this race. In this stage we follow this order 1) Check to see if horse has been improving. Steady improvement is best, but a jump improvement cannot be ignored. 2) Check to see what the average speed figures for the horse have been Don t forget, the graphs are read from left to right with the most recent race appearing on the right hand side. Let us start with Horse 1 (Media Jury).
The first thing we notice is that horse made a sudden jump in its last race, rather than a steady improvement. We always prefer a steady improvement over sudden jumps, although we cannot ignore them. If we draw a line between all the speed figures on the graph, we can see that the average is much lower than would be required to win the race. The perfect situation would be for a horse to be steadily improving and have its speed figures average above the level required to win the race. However we need to compare against our other possible selections before making any decisions. Before we do that I like to write a short sentence about the runner to remind me what I thought. Looking at Horse 3 (Elusive Bonus) we see [PLEASE TURN THE PAGE]
Again we can see that this horse made a sudden jump in performance, rather than a steady improvement. The average speed is a little bit better than the first horse but not much. How do we make our choice? Looking at the graphs for each of these runners, we notice that Horse 3 has got more speed figures that are much better than Horse 1. It is just let down by a couple of races.
We also see that although Horse 3 has jumped in performance, the jump is much more in- line with how we can see the horse has performed in the past. Horse 1 has jumped to a level way above anything it has performed before. With this knowledge we would say that Horse 3 has the preference because it s jump is more in- line with what we have seen it perform in the past and therefore less likely to be a lucky race. The average speed has been let down by just a couple of races but the majority of its races it has performed better than Horse 1. Final Thoughts By now I am sure that you can see the power in this selection process! However, because it is designed by a professional for professional betting, it can take some time to learn and put into practice. After all if it wasn t so detailed it wouldn t be anywhere near as effective! But, Betting Speed Evolution removes all the effort by not only creating the graphs for you but also finding you the selections! To make sure that the power of this strategy is not diluted, there is a strict limit on the amount of licenses available. Make sure you keep an eye on your inbox at 10am on the 14 th September to get a copy.