Export competitiveness factors in the Eurozone countries: the Italian case CompNet Workshop Rome, 13-14 th March 2014 Cristina Pensa and Matteo Pignatti Confindustria Research Department 1 / 15
Motivation (exports of goods, volume index 2000=100) 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Spain France Italy Germany 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Eurostat. What are the drivers of export performance in the EA countries? 2 / 15
Strategy Large literature Very recently: Christodoulopoulou and Tkavecs (2013) and Giordano and Zollino (2013) Broad range of competitiveness indicators Foreign potential demand Price-cost indicators may offer (very) different insights the Italian puzzle Quality GVC participation Investment 3 / 15
Specification Group of nine Euro area countries: Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, Ireland, Finland Quarterly data over the period 1991Q1-2013Q2 Panel regression Let X be the volume of exports of goods: log(x i,t ) =α + β log(x i,t 1 ) + 2 γ j log(reer i,t j )+ j=0 1 λ j log(pd i,t j ) +... + ε i,t j=0 Split the Reer into two components: Neer and relative Price/Cost 4 / 15
Italian potential demand in line with German one (average yearly growth rate) 8 7 6 5 Germany Spain Italy France 4 3 2 1 0 1991-2000 2000-2008 2008-2013 2013-2018 Source: Comtrade, Ocse and Eurostat. Weighted average of the growth of imports in 38 trading partners (variable weights are country s export shares) From 2000 to 2013, +4,4% yearly in Italy and Germany, +4,1% in France, +3,5% in Spain 5 / 15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Italian price/cost competitiveness: two tales (Manufacturing, inverse of Reer, index 2000=100) 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 Italy - ULC Germany - ULC Italy - Producer Prices Germany - Producer Prices * First three quarters. Source: Bank of Italy and European Commission. From 2000 to 2013, Italy lost wrt Germany 7,3 pp in competitiveness according to PPI and 32,0 pp according to ULC 6 / 15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Italian ULC keeps rising (Manufacturing, labor cost over hourly productivity, index 2000=100) 135 Italy Spain 125 115 France Germany 105 95 85 *1 semester 2013 over 1 semester 2012. Source: Eurostat. Italian ULC gap: +2,7 pp yearly vs Germany, 1,7 pp vs France and Spain 7 / 15
Potential demand and real effective exchange rate Export growth Time lags Production price Unit labor cost t 0 0.99*** 0.98*** Potential demand t 1 0.27*** 0.29*** long term 1.00*** 0.98*** Residual world export t 0 0.59*** 0.54*** long term 0.47*** 0.41*** t 0-0.15*** -0.28*** Real effective exchange rate t 1-0.23*** -0.20* t 2-0.11* -0.05 long term -0.39*** -0.41*** R-squared 0.44 0.48 Number of observations 730 664 8 / 15
Price, cost and value factors Split Reer into Neer and relative price/cost indicator Export growth Time lags Production prices Unit labor cost t 0 0.98*** 0.99*** Potential demand t 1 0.27*** 0.29*** long term 1.00*** 0.99*** Residual world export t 0 0.59*** 0.54*** long term 0.47*** 0.42*** t 0-0.18*** -0.12*** Nominal effective exchange rate t 1-0.22*** -0.12* t 2-0.13** -0.07 long term -0.42*** -0.24*** t 0-0.67*** Prices, cost and unit values t 1-0.27** t 2 long term -0.22** -0.52*** R-squared 0.44 0.48 Number of observations 730 670 9 / 15
Italian exports ahead in quality improvement (export unit values over export producer prices, index 2000=100) 125 120 115 110 Germany Spain France Italy 105 100 95 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* * 2013: first eleven months. Source: Eurostat. Consistent with results in Henn, Papageorgiou and Spatafora (2013) From 2000 to 2013, +1,6% yearly in Italy, +0,9% in Germany, +0,6% in France, +0,5% in Spain 10 / 15
GVC Participation and position 120 110 100 90 Germany - Participation (right scale) Italy - Participation (right scale) Germany - Position Italy - Position 100 90 80 70 80 60 70 50 60 40 50 30 40 Source: OECD. 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 20 GVC participation: foreign VA used in exports (upstream) plus internal VA supplied to other countries exports (downstream), divided by total exports GVC position: upstream over downstream component 11 / 15
Quality and GVC indicators Relative quality index wrt 36 trading partners, using producer prices as proxies for export producer prices GVC participation proxied by the sum of exports and imports of intermediate goods (non oil) over total exports (non oil) GVC position proxied by the ratio of exports over imports of intermediate goods (non oil) Real fixed investment captures private domestic demand and increases productive capacity (private consumption not significant) 12 / 15
Quality, global value chains and investment Export growth Time lags t 0 1.00*** 1.02*** Potential demand t 1 0.32*** 0.26*** long term 1.01*** 1.02*** Residual world export t 0 0.56*** 0.49*** long term 0.42*** 0.38*** t 0-0.14* -0.04 Nominal effective exchange rate t 1-0.11-0.05 t 2-0.07-0.18** long term -0.24** -0.21** Unit labor cost t 0-0.63*** -0.62*** long term -0.48*** -0.49*** t 0 0.12** Quality t 1 0.11* 0.11 t 2 0.03 long term 0.20** 0.09 Position in GVC t 0 0.10*** long term 0.08*** t 0-0.15*** Participation to GVC t 1 0.05* long term -0.08*** Investment t 0 0.08** long term 0.06** R-squared 0.49 0.58 Number of observations 620 500 13 / 15
Model fit for Italy 0,1 0,05 0-0,05 Export growth Fitted value -0,1-0,15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average yearly impact on export growth of the factors dynamics (in pp): ULC 0, 95, PPI +0, 10 Quality +0, 27, GVC position +0, 12, GVC participation 0, 06, investment 0, 06 14 / 15
Summary and way forward Relative ULC plays a significant role in explaining export performance in the EA countries, especially in Italy Other factors are important: quality, GVC, investment Robustness checks Is Italy special? Better indicators for quality and GVC Different impact on intra-ea and extra-ea exports 15 / 15