Five Ways the 2016 Census Affects Marketers February 15, 2018 Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Practice Leader
Today s presenters Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Practice Leader 2
housekeeping Listen-only mode for attendees Questions at the end. Use the Webex Q&A Feature in your Interface Technical difficulties? 1-866-229-3239 Presentation deck will be available environicsanalytics.com/webcasts 3
1. Growth or decline? It Depends where you are 4
Canada s Population increased by 1.7 million between 2011-2016 Census Population and Growth Rate, Canada Census Population (millions) Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate (%) 40.0 35.2 35.0 13.4 33.5 31.6 28.8 30.0 30.0 27.3 9.7 24.3 25.3 25.0 23.0 21.6 20.0 18.2 7.8 7.9 20.0 16.1 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 15.0 5.4 5.0 4.0 4.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Census Population Growth Rate (%) Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses
Growth was highest in Northern and Western Canada Population Growth Rate (%), Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2006-2011 and 2011-2016 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 12.7 11.6 10.8 11.6 % 8.3 6.7 6.3 5.2 7.0 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.7 3.3 3.2 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.2-0.5 NU AB SK MB YK BC Canada ON QC PEI NL NWT NS NB 2.9 Source: Various Censuses
Growth in Alberta has declined, but it is still close to average Population Growth 3.5% 3.0% Alberta 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Saskatchewan Ontario Canada Ontario Saskatchewan Canada Alberta 0.5% 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates 7
big markets are getting bigger, while growth in rural areas slows Population by Geography Growth Rate Rural 17% 7.5 6.9 2006-2011 2011-2016 117 Medium Sized 12% Other 29 CMAs 24% Largest 6 CMAs* 47% % 6 Largest CMAs* 4.9 4.8 29 Other CMAs 3.5 3.3 3.3 117 Medium Sized 1.4 Rural * Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Edmonton Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses
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Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census
1. Growth or decline? It Depends where you are Marketing implications Growth in Canada is very localized. Marketers shouldn t make plans based on generalities Use data tailored to your specific market, trade area, etc. to assess opportunities 11
Demographic estimates and projections 12
2. It s official: we re old 13
Canada Now has More Seniors than Children Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ % 34 34 32 30 30 28 5 6 7 8 8 8 23 10 21 12 19 13 17 15 16.6 16.9 21.1 23.9 24.5 16.3 15.6 15.2 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 14
By 2046, one in Four Canadians will be 65 Years and older Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ % 34 34 32 30 30 28 5 6 7 8 8 8 23 10 21 12 19 13 17 15 16.6 16.9 21.1 23.9 24.5 16.3 15.6 15.2 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 15
And this trend will continue in the future Projected Population Growth, 2016-2026, Canada 2016-2026 Projected Population Growth, 2016-2036, Canada 2016-2036 111 72 10 4 40 % % 29 Total Under 65 65+ 85+ 18 8 Total Under 65 65+ 85+ Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections 16
Declines at some age groups Percent Population Change 2011-2016, Canada 16.0 12 % 5 1.2 0.1 2.5 5 8 5 0.7-7 -3.0-12 Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55+ Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 17
the suburbs are no longer only for young families; seniors are a growing segment in this market 2011-2016 Growth of Population 65+ City Suburbs Population Aged 65+, 2016 City Suburbs 31.1 % 9.0 22.8 13.1 19.1 25.4 % 16.0 16.7 15.6 15.5 13.5 15.8 Montreal GTA Vancouver Montreal GTA Vancouver GTA = Greater Toronto Area Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 18
Older population had high growth and high increase in spending power Growth in Population 2006-2016 35.4 Distribution of After Tax Income, 2015 Growth in After Tax Income, 2005-2015 35.9 Age 55 + 37% Age 15-34 20% 21.4 19.9 % 11.2 8.0-2.2 All ages 15-34 35-54 55 + Age groups Age 35-54 43% % 9.4 All ages 15-34 35-54 55 + Age groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 19
2. it s official: we re old Marketing implications Rapid growth in senior population is expected to continue for the next decade, before it starts to level off Expect this generation of seniors to tend to stay in their suburban neighbourhoods as they age As the baby bust generation ages, there will be a senior bust, but it will be much less pronounced 20
Demographic estimates and projections 21
3. The household has many versions 22
WHAT IS THE MOST COMMON HOUSEHOLD TYPE IN CANADA? PARENTS W/KIDS, EMPTY NESTS, SINGLES, LONE-PARENT FAMILIES 23
A diversity of households Types of Households, 2016 Change in Number of Households 2011-2016 Total 5.6 % Non-family 2 or more persons 4.1% Other 3.6% Multigenerational household 2.9% One-person 28.2% Loneparent 8.9% Couple without children 25.8% Couple with children 26.5% Couple without children Couple with children Lone-parent Multigenerational Other census family Non-family 2+ persons One-person 1.5 6.9 5.0 5.6 7.2 8.1 11.6 2016 Total Households: 14,072,080 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 24
Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census
Older men and women have very different living arrangements Living Arrangements of Older Adults Aged 65 and Over, Canada, 2016 Females 11 31 Couple in Private 46 18 household 63 57 17 With Others 34 15 12 Alone % 12 38 % 33 37 24 28 In Collective 14 3 6 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and Age Groups Over Males 76 76 74 66 7 7 6 6 18 16 16 16 2 4 9 47 9 20 24 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and Age Groups Over Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 26
3. The household has many versions Marketing implications The nuclear family is the exception Household size is drifting downward, so population in an area will slowly fall unless additional households are formed More people will be living alone, combined with an aging population means more women living alone 27
4. Cultural Diversity 2.0 28
Immigrants at highest level since 1931 Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 16.1 13.9 13.3 13.0 22.0 22.3 22.2 17.5 14.7 15.6 15.3 16.0 15.6 16.1 17.4 18.4 19.8 20.6 21.9 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.2 30% 25% 20% 15% 4,000,000 10% 2,000,000 5% 0 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 0% Source: Statistics Canada 7,540,830 Total immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016
Immigrant numbers will continue to increase Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 16.1 13.9 13.3 13.0 22.0 22.3 22.2 17.5 Number Percentage 14.7 15.6 15.3 16.0 17.4 15.6 16.1 18.4 Actual 21.9 19.8 20.6 Projected 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.2 30% 25% 20% 15% 4,000,000 10% 2,000,000 5% 0 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 0% Source: Statistics Canada Diversity projections 30 7,540,830 Total immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016
Immigrants spreading out across the country Immigrants by Province, Canada Ontario Quebec Alberta British Columbia Manitoba Saskatchewan Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Immigrants 2011-2016 472,200 215,200 207,800 175,600 63,200 47,900 11,800 9,300 3,700 3,400 Percent Change from 2001-2006 -18.7 11.0 100.4-1.3 102.7 492.5 70.9 117.1 154.3 293.0 1,212,080 Total Canada 2011-2016 Percent change: 14.8% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
Increased immigration from Syria, Iran and Philippines Number of Immigrants 2011-2016, Top Countries of Birth Philippines India China Iran Pakistan Syria United States of America France United Kingdom Nigeria 54,700 51,700 30,000 40,000 26,500 29,300 19,000 139,800 169,300 count 191,500 Percentage Change in Number of Immigrants, 2006-2011 to 2011-2016 Syria Iran Philippines Nigeria France Pakistan India China United States of America United Kingdom -7.5-13.7-30.0 56.4 46.9 34.5 17.7 11.8 9.7 490.9 % Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 32
degree of acculturation as reflected in time in Canada and language use is important in any ethnic marketing venture Language Use other than English or French, Immigrants, Canada, 2016 Mother tongue-other* Language spoken most often at home-other Speaks only "Other" language at home 71.2 77.3 75.8 75.6 56.2 37.7 45.1 46.1 49.7 21.9 23.0 27.6 26.5 30.4 13.3 Before 1981 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2016 * Other refers to other than English or French Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
Visible minority population will continue to increase Percent of the Population Visible Minority, CMAs, 2016, Canada Toronto Vancouver Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Edmonton Winnipeg Montréal Canada 51 49 34 49 29 43 28 42 26 46 23 37 22 34 62 66 % 2016 Ottawa - Gatineau Projected 2036 % 22 38 Windsor 20 34 K - C - W 19 33 Hamilton Regina Oshawa 18 27 18 25 17 25 Saskatoon 17 35 Guelph London 17 26 16 23 % K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
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Emerging young second generation with increasingly mixed identities Percent of Population Visible Minority by Generation, 2016, Canada First generation 2+ generations Total on top 28 27 27 27 % 22 7 15 22 6 13 14 7 20 4 23 21 1 20 15 1 14 13 1 12 All ages 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
4. Cultural Diversity 2.0 Marketing implications Visible minorities will be the majority in Toronto and Vancouver Diversity will be much more pronounced everywhere in the country For the next generation, diversity is the norm and they have mixed identities and influences Multicultural marketing will change and maybe not exist only as selective campaigns to reach a specific ethnicity 37
Environics Analytics authoritative segmentation system Acculturation categories for Chinese and South Asians Demographic estimates and projections 38
5. The future is female 39
Large gender gap for population under age 45 Percentage Population with Post Secondary Credentials, 2016 % 64 29 74 74 67 63 41 37 29 25 66 27 58 54 55 21 23 22 20 17 27 30 31 8 27 13 24 17 14 14 15 16 16 16 6 7 8 7 7 5 Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female 25-34 25-34 35-44 35-44 45-54 45-54 55-64 55-64 65-74 65-74 75 + 75 + 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 + Age Groups 21 20 22 47 16 45 16 30 Total on top University at bachelor level or above College, CEGEP or university below bachelors Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 40
Major gains in female representation in many professions Female Representation in Selected Professions, 2016, Canada Veterinarians General practitioners and family physicians Optometrists Biologists and related scientists Lawyers and Quebec notaries Specialist physicians Photographers Dentists Architects Chiropractors Chemical engineers Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 41 Ages 54-64 39.8 37.5 36.0 33.5 30.8 30.4 26.8 23.5 21.9 17.9 10.3 34.5 50% Ages 25-34 at end 81.3 % 58.6 69.9 61.8 55.4 54.8 65.0 55.1 49.3 52.2
Higher income increases for women Change in Median Total Income 2005-2015, Age 25-34, Canada Male Female 46.5 41.0 36.1 33.4 % 5.4 15.0 21.0 19.8 19.0 15.8 12.4 11.0 11.3 6.3 5.2 16.0 13.5 25.1 19.7 9.0 16.4-7.2 Source: Various Censuses Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Median Income 2015, Canada Males $41,154 Females $32,942
In nearly a third of couples, women now have higher incomes Percent of Couples Where a Female is the Higher Total Income Recipient, 2015, Canada 30.6 30.2 32.6 31.8 25.7 % All ages 15-29 30-54 55-64 65 + Age of older person Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 43
5. The future is female Marketing implications Better education with more earning power and fewer women living with men will mean more decisions will be made by women Understand decision-making by men vs. women if your category is not currently catering to women Completely new opportunities may exist in growing numbers of female-only households 44
The five ways the census affects marketers 1. Growth or decline? It depends where you are 2. It s official: we re old 3. The household has many versions 4. Cultural Diversity 2.0 5. The future is female 45
Demographic estimates and projections Financial wealth estimates Acculturation categories for Chinese and South Asians Environics Analytics authoritative segmentation system Enhanced census data 46
Questions?