Application of Demographic Analysis to Pedestrian Safety BDV25 TWO 977 30 Pei Sung Lin, Ph.D., P.E., PTOE, FITE Program Director Achilleas Kourtellis, Ph.D. Senior Research Associate CUTR, University of South Florida CUTR Webcast October 10, 2017 Center for Urban Transportation Research University of South Florida Introduction The presentation is based on the BDV25 977 30 research project sponsored by FDOT. This project focused on application of demographic analysis to pedestrian safety. FDOT project manager: o Mr. Mark Plass (PM), FDOT District 4 Traffic Operations Engineer CUTR research team: o o o o o Dr. Pei Sung Lin (PI) Dr. Achilleas Kourtellis (Co PI) Dr. Yu Zhang (Co PI) Dr. Rui Guo (Researcher) Ms. Elzbieta Bialkowska Jelinska (GIS Analyst) This CUTR webcast will highlight all aspects of the project, and major conclusions and recommendations. 2 1
Project Background FDOT invested significantly more resources to enhance pedestrian safety in Florida. There was still a need to effectively and systematically address the experiences of pedestrians in low income areas. Pedestrian lives were lost at disproportionately higher rates in the nation s poorer neighborhoods. Pedestrian fatality rates in low income areas were approximately twice those of more affluent neighborhoods. Examining Census tract poverty rates yielded a similar pattern the country s poorest neighborhoods have the highest per capita pedestrian fatalities. 3 Presentation Outline Introduction Project Background Project Objectives Research Activities and Findings Summary of Research Conclusions Recommendations 4 2
Project Objectives Develop a demographics based methodology to identify low income areas with greater pedestrian hazard Identify major factors associated with pedestrian crash frequency and injury severity Produce recommendations for engineering countermeasures and pedestrian safety education/outreach plans 5 Pedestrian Fatality Rate and Income Level 6 3
Example: Poverty Distribution and 5-Year Pedestrian Crash Map in Tampa 7 Agenda 8 4
Potential Factors for Pedestrian Crashes 9 Demographics-based Methodology Methodological flowchart: Step 1. Data Collection and Compilation Step 2. Data Preparation by Analysis Unit Step 3. GIS Visualization and Spatial Analysis Step 4. Statistical Tests and Modeling Step 5. Discussion of Results of Data Analysis Step 6. Education and Engineering Countermeasures 10 5
Flowchart 11 Candidate Variables for Methodology Test Demographic & Social Factors (Source: U.S. Census) Road Environment Factors (Sources: FDOT RCI GTFS, Transit Agencies) Land Use Factors (Source: FGDL) Individual Factors (Source: CARS) Population density Road type Stores Pedestrian age, gender Age groups & gender Intersections Mixed use Driver age, gender Ethnic minorities Sidewalk density Department stores Driver action Poverty & income Crosswalk density Supermarkets Pedestrian action Employment Light condition Bars Pedestrian visibility Commute mode Weather condition Schools Impairment Car ownership Traffic control device Industrial area Impact speed Education level Posted speed limit Residential area Vehicles maneuver English language Traffic volume Vehicle types fluency Bus stop locations 12 6
Methodology Test Pedestrian crash frequency Pedestrian crash injury severity 13 Definition of Low-income Area Based on the definition in Governing (2014) report, census block groups (BGs) were categorized into low income BGs and higherincome BGs: Low income BGs: poverty rates >15% or per capita income < $21,559 Higher income BGs: poverty rates 15% and per capita income $21,559 Reference: Governing (2014) America s Poor Neighborhoods Plagued by Pedestrian Deaths 14 7
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CO HC NOx PM SOx 10/10/2017 Identification of Low-income Area Broward County: 475 low income BGs (out of a total of 939 census BGs) were identified Palm Beach County: 337 low income BGs (out of a total of 876 census BGs) were identified Broward County 15 Analysis for Pedestrian Crash Frequency Pedestrian Crashes Pedestrian crash frequency Severe injury pedestrian crash frequency Explanatory Variables Demographic and Social Factors Road Environment Factors Neighborhood Land Use Attributes Others Relationship? 16 8
Correlation with Demographic Factors pedestrian crashes are more frequent in the low income BGs with more population, smaller proportion of older people, minority dominated, zero car ownership neighborhoods, and among populations with low education level. 17 Effects of Demographics on Crash Frequency o o One percent increase in public transit or bike to work, low education level, zero car ownership and minority would result in an average increase of 0.052, 0.047, 0.043 and 0.019 pedestrian crashes in 4 years in a low income BG. One percent increase in older population would result in an average decrease of 0.055 pedestrian crashes in 4 years in a low income BG. 18 9
Correlation with Road Environment Factors Pedestrian crashes are more frequent in low income BGs with more intersections, traffic signals, bus stops, and larger proportion of roads with higher speed limits. 19 Effects of Road Factors on Crash Frequency o o One increase in intersection number, traffic signal number and bus stop location per mile would result in an average increase of 0.082, 0.655 and 0.170 pedestrian crashes in 4 years in a low income BG. One percent increase in proportion of lower speed roads would result in an average decrease of 0.012 pedestrian crashes in 4 years in a low income BG. 20 10
Visualization: Neighborhood Land Use Attributes 21 Correlation with Land Use Attributes Pedestrian crashes occurred more frequently in low income BGs with the presence of Walmart store and with greater densities of discount department stores, fast food restaurants, convenience stores, grocery stores and barber stores. 22 11
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CO HC NOx PM SOx 10/10/2017 Effects of Land Use Types on Crash Frequency o o On average, the presence of awalmartstoreinalow income BG would result in an average increase of 1.803 pedestrian crashes in 4 years. One increase in the density (#/square miles) of discount stores, convenience stores, fast food restaurants, grocery stores and barber shops would result in an average increase of 0.226, 0.071, 0.069, 0.057 and 0.049 pedestrian crashes in 4 years in a low income BG. 23 Analysis for Pedestrian Crash Injury Severity Injury Severity Severe injury (fatality or incapacitating injury) Non severe injury (no injury, possible injury or non incapacitating injury) Explanatory Variables Individual Characteristics Road Environment Factors Others Relationship? 24 12
Effects of Individual Characteristics on Injury Severity o Older pedestrian (11.61%);Pedestrian in travel lane not crosswalk (11.20%); Dart/dash (4.91%); Impaired pedestrian (70.32%); Aggressivedriver (19.64%). 25 Impaired pedestrian crashes and locations of bars and alcohol retail 26 13
Effects of Environment Factors on Injury Severity o Dark not lighted (21.56%); Dark lighted (18.82%); Bad weather (6.33%). o Lower speed limit (11.19%); Traffic control device (6.84%). o Moreover, 72% of pedestrian fatalities occurred at nighttime, and o 22% of nighttime fatalities occurred on streets without lighting 27 Identified Hot Zones in Low-income Areas for Improving Pedestrian Safety The potential for safety improvements (PSI) is the difference between the expected (or adjusted observed) and predicted number of crashes. If the PSI is positive in an area, the area is experiencing more crashes than other areas with similar features. All low income Block Groups (BGs) can be classified into three zones based on the calculated PSI values hot, warm, and cold. Hot zones are defined as BGs with a top 15% PSI, cold zones refer to BGs with a PSI less than 0, and warm zones are BGs with a PSI between 0 and the top 15%. Hot zones are high risk BGs for pedestrian safety because there are many more pedestrian crashes than other BGs with similar characteristics. Cold zones are relatively safe for pedestrians. 28 14
Identified Hot Zones in Low-income Areas for Improving Pedestrian Safety (Cont d) 29 Engineering Countermeasures Roadway Lighting and Lighting Levels Treatments at Non intersection Locations Bus Stop Improvements Speed Reduction Treatments Road Safety Audits (RSA) 30 15
Roadway Lighting and Lighting Levels 31 Presence of Lighting 32 16
Adequate lighting level and uniformity 33 Adequate lighting level and uniformity Increasing illuminance from under 0.9 fc to 0.9 fc or higher will reduce the probability of fatality and serious injury in a nighttime pedestrian/bicycle crash by 8.9%. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 3.9% Total 8.9% Pedestrian/bicycle Head on 6.9% Angle 5.3% Others 4.4% Rear end 2.1% Sideswipe 1.2% 34 17
Adequate lighting level and uniformity 7 Expected Nighttime Crash frequency (per 4 years) 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 Overall Good Uniformity Poor Uniformity 3.5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Average Horizontal Illuminance (fc) 35 Pedestrian lighting placement 36 18
Treatments at Non-intersection Locations 37 Treatments at Non-intersection Locations (Cont d) a. b. c. d. 38 19
Bus Stop Improvement 39 Bus Stop Relocation Bus stop relocation should be considered if any of the following situation exists Inadequate sight distance or sight distance obstruction Excessive congestion or conflicts caused by the bus, Frequent vehicle conflicts with non motorists such as pedestrian crossings. A far side bus stop location typically is preferred 40 20
Transit Bus Request Lights 41 Speed Reduction Treatments 42 21
Speed Reduction Treatments (Cont d) a. b. c. d. 43 Road Safety Audit The identified low income areas with higher pedestrian hazards will require an accompanying Road Safety Audit (RSA) report to determine eligibility for safety improvements. An RSA is the formal safety performance examination of an existing or future road or intersection by an independent, multidisciplinary team, The aim of an RSA is to answer the following questions: (a) What elements of the road may present a safety concern to what extent, to which road users, and under what circumstances? (b) What opportunities exist to eliminate or mitigate identified safety concerns? 44 22
Education and Outreach Plan WalkWise Safety Education Distribution of Education Tip Cards Social Media Outreach Community Networking Business Sweeps Law Enforcement Roll Call Training Public Private Partnerships 45 WalkWise Safety Education 46 23
Distribution of Education Tip Cards 47 Distribution of Education Tip Cards (Cont d) 48 24
Social Media Outreach 49 Community Networking Attending meetings of Community meetings and events will help build partnerships and connect the safety initiative and message out to the community. Often, these partnerships lead to more safety presentations and outreach for an audience that represents more of pedestrian and bicycle crashes. Local non profit organizations working within the high crash and lowincome areas are good leads to help integrate the WalkWise presentation, as well as other safety information in the community. 50 25
Business Sweeps 51 Law Enforcement Roll-Call Training 52 26
Public-Private Partnerships Example 53 54 27
Summary of Research Conclusions Successfully identified the databases used for demographic analysis to pedestrian safety, developed and tested the methodological flowchart, obtained major findings, and recommended implementation strategies for pedestrian safety. Developed a demographic based methodology (flowchart) to conduct demographic analysis for including identified inputs, outputs, and outcomes for pedestrian safety analysis. Identified major factors associated with pedestrian crash frequency and injury severity, and quantified their relationships. Developed recommendations for both engineering countermeasures and pedestrian safety education/outreach plans 55 Summary of Research Conclusions Major Engineering Countermeasures o Roadway lighting and lighting levels Presence of lighting Adequate lighting level and uniformity o Proper pedestrian lighting placement o Treatments at non intersection locations Midblock pedestrian crossing signals (HAWKs, RRFBs) High visibility crosswalk Medians and crossing islands o Appropriate landscaping o Bus stop improvements Bus stop reallocation Transit stop request lights o Speed reduction treatments Slow speed zones Road diets Roundabouts Traffic calming on residential streets o Road Safety Audits (RSA) 56 28
Summary of Research Conclusions Major Pedestrian Safety educational/outreach Plans o WalkWise safety education o Distribution of education tip cards o Social media outreach o Community networking o Business sweeps o Law enforcement role call training o Public private partnerships 57 Recommendations Identify and prioritize low income areas to Implement the research results and findings to improve pedestrian safety. Conduct pilot implementations and evaluations. Recommend further research projects to investigate (1) land uses and midblock crossings in low income areas, and (2) the impact of street lighting levels on pedestrian crashes and injury severity in low income areas. 58 29
Questions? Contact Dr. Pei Sung Lin, P.E., PTOE, FITE Program Director ITS, Traffic Operations and Safety Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR) University of South Florida (813) 974 4910 lin@cutr.usf.edu Final Report Application of Demographic Analysis to Pedestrian Safety http://www.fdot.gov/research/completed_proj/summary_te/fdot BDV25 977 30 rpt.pdf 59 30