Congestion Management in Singapore Assoc Prof Anthony TH CHIN Department of Economics National University of Singapore anthonychin@nus.edu.sg
Introduction 2 Introduction and What is Traffic Congestion? Economic Instruments: Pricing, Quota and Tradable Permits Equity Issues Singapore s Holistic Approach and Conclusion
Introducion: What is congestion? 3 Congestion can be measured by: 1. Speed flow curves Expressway 45 to 65 km/h Other roads 20 to 30 km/h 2. Delays in travel time
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Introduction 18.5 km/h 5
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Introduction Future GPS-based ERP system (ERP II) Distance-based congestion charging 10
Introduction UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development 11
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Introduction UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development 13
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Introduction 30% decrease in congestion 14% faster in journey times 71,000 more passengers for buses 14% decrease in number of vehicles entering restricted zones 30% decrease in traffic within RZ By 1988, 31% decrease compared to pre-charging levels After ALS is replaced ERP, traffic down by 10-15% 15
Introduction As GDP per capita increases, more drivers can better afford the charge. Instead of increasing charges gradually, governments may introduce a large spike in congestion charge to induce a shock factor in drivers 16
Introduction: Speed flow Rates reviewed every 3 months Ensure optimal use of road space 17 Expressway: 45 kph 65 kph Other roads: 20 kph 30 kph
Morning peak hour congestion 18
Evening Peak Hour Congestion 19 UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development
Direct impact of ERP Reduction in generalized cost of congestion: 1.Travelling time 2.Depreciation 3.Fuel 4.Maintenance 5.Repairs of vehicles 20
Direct impact of ERP Reduction in business production cost: 1.Prevents loss of productivity due to extended delivery time 2.Decrease vehicle operating expenses 3.Decrease logistics and scheduling time 4.Avoid additional inventory cost 5.Reduced cost of Rescue drivers for missed deliveries 21
Reduction in externalities: Indirect impact of ERP 1.Reduce lower-level accident cost (due to frustration) 2.Reduce cost of pollution 3.Increase amenity of road infrastructure (Stress) 22
Impact on economy 23 The prevention of cost of congestion to the economy results in: Increase competitiveness due to higher productivity Prevents the loss of advantages of agglomeration of buyers and sellers in the city area (Raffles place, City hall, Orchard etc.)
Effectiveness of ERP 24 Demand Price Elasticity: E = % change in demand / % change in price As demand price elasticity increases, effect on reducing congestion becomes larger and welfare loss becomes smaller
Cost-Benefit Analysis 25 Flatter demand curve
Cost-Benefit Analysis 26 MSC Less welfare loss Flatter demand curve
Year Singapore Traffic Flow 27 Average Speed During Peak Hour (km/hour) Expressways CBD / Arterial Roads 2002 64.8 24.6 2003 64.4 24.8 2004 62.9 25.8 2005 62.8 26.7 2006 62.7 27.6 2007 61.2 26.8 2008 63.6 26.6 2009 62.2 27.6 2010 62.3 28 2011 62.5 28.5 2012 63.1 28.6
18.5 km/h 28
Annual Motor Vehicle Population under Vehicle Quota System(VQS) Year Total 2002 706,956 2003 711,043 2004 727,395 2005 754,992 2006 799,373 2007 851,336 2008 894,682 2009 925,518 2010 945,829 2011 956,704 2012 969,910 29 2002 2012 Total vehicle population has increased by 37% Average speed on Expressways is 60-65 kph Average speed on CBD roads is 20-30 kph
Equity Issues 1 Key Questions 1. Are the Charges fair? 2. Do I gain from the extra Charges? 3. How are the revenues re-invested? 30
Equity Issues 2 Horizontal Equity Vertical Equity 31
Equity Issues 3 Congestion Pricing is vertically inequitable Horizontally Equitable A toll charge of $5 along CBD area charges everyone the same amount Vertically Inequitable Represents a larger portion of income for a low-income driver than high-income driver 32
Equity Issues 4 Class Impact Equity Considerations Non-Drivers (Public transport and passengers) Not affected by charges Non-drivers include people who are disadvantaged, revenues should be used to maximize their benefits Low Income Drivers Middle-Income Drivers High-income drivers Priced out of system, change for the worse Net benefits reduced, but overall positive gain Time gain is worth of the charges paid Govt to use revenues to benefit this group Deserve to benefit from revenue only if external costs are compensated No justification to use road pricing revenue to benefit them 33
Equity Issues 5 Implication: Empirical studies show that bigger proportion of motorists is made up of 1 st 2 groups. Thus, majority will suffer from congestion pricing. 34
Equity Issues 6 Business Travelers Localization Effect Privacy Natural Hedging Strategy Surplus of Pounds sold for Euros Purchase US/Euro forward Faster contracts delivery, Extra surcharges Centralization due to increased cost of travel Negative Impact on motorists UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development 35
Equity Issues 7 ISSUES TO BE SOLVED Only 4 major cities have implemented congestion pricing Real short term benefits, but questionable long term gains Increasing population What is the suitable price to charge? Remains divisive and controversial Addition and expansion of bus lanes, metro and increased parking costs in cities Car-pooling, car sharing Modal shifts in transportation UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development 36
Conclusion 1 37 Data has shown ERP impact on reducing congestion is effective despite the persistent increase in vehicles every year The increase in ERP charges coupled with the increase in number of gantries is a necessary measure to reduce road users to a socially optimal level
Conclusion 2 38 Road Pricing has proven to be theoretically effective, even with the relaxation in the assumption of perfect information of traffic condition. In the short run, empirical evidences suggest: The price elasticity of demand for road space is relatively high. Road Pricing Schemes, when implemented, would significantly reduce traffic flow. In the long run impacts of road pricing is mixed: However, evidences from ongoing programmes support that Road Pricing is effective in maintaining a steady congestion reduction in the long run
Conclusion 3 39 Increase awareness of ERP cost by organizing campaigns and creating games to increase price sensitivity of users Create phone applications to help users plan transport routes and save cost on ERP changes
Conclusion 4 40 Impact of road pricing requires an network approach and analysis. Congestion management involves a holistic approach: Systematic, dynamic and effective land use planning; Availability and investment in alternative travel modes such as public transport, car sharing, non-motorized transport, carpooling; Car park policy and livability of the city core; Change in attitudes towards motorcars through behavioral change.
Conclusion 5 DRAFT LAND USE MASTER PLAN 2013 Transport network to be expanded. Emphasis on green and sustainable transportation modes, such as public transport, cycling and walking; 41 Greater connectivity for all commuters over the next 10 to 15 years. Agencies to be guided by a more connected Singapore, greater accessibility to public transport and a reduced reliance on private cars as a mode of commute; The rail network will double to about 360km by 2030. 80% of all homes are within a 10-minute walk of an MRT station; Bus services enhanced with increased fleets, and more integrated transport hubs; Infrastructure will be put in place to encourage cycling as an alternative mode of transport for both commuting and leisure. Pedestrian connectivity within a 400m radius of MRT stations will be further improved through a network of covered link-ways that connect to activity-generating hubs in the vicinity; HDB towns will have more options for walking and cycling, and ultimately lead to sustainable living environment.
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Singapore national cycling plan 43 Today 230 km of park connectors and cycling paths. Aim 700 km of integrated and comprehensive paths.
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City Cycling mode share Km per 100,000 Copenhagen 35% 80 Portland 6% 73 Amsterdam 27% 71 Sydney 0.7% 15 Toronto 1.7% 12 Singapore 1.0% 12 London 2.0% - Punggol to Tampines 12.2 km Travel time (mins) Travel cost ($) Car 14 9.8 Bus/LRT 59 3.06 Bicycle 35 0 45
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