High crop prices: Positive for fertilizer demand what about supply? Dag Tore Mo, Head of Market Intelligence

High crop prices: Positive for fertilizer demand what about supply? Dag Tore Mo, Head of Market Intelligence

Key global fertilizer products Nitrogen N Ammonia 4% Other 11% DAP/MAP 6% Potash K 2 O Phosphate P 2 O 5 NPK 23% Other 5% MOP/SOP 72% NPK 9% AN/CAN 8% UAN 5% 103 million tons Urea 57% SSP 13% NPK 21% TSP 6% Other 7% DAP/MAP 52% 27 million tons 40 million tons Source: IFA 2010 (nutrient totals) and 2008 (product split)

A third year of lower grain stocks, very supportive Million tons 2 400 2 300 35% 30% 2 200 25% 20% 2 100 2 000 Consumption 15% 10% 68 days inventory 1 900 Production 5% 1 800 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F Source: USDA November 2012

Main agricultural commodity prices at historic high levels USD/t Wheat (HRW US Gulf) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TD12 Oct Rice (Thailand) USD/t 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TD12 Oct USD/t Corn (US Gulf) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TD12 Oct Source: World Bank, November 2012 USD/t Soybeans (cif Rotterdam) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TD12 Oct Average prices 2002-2011

Fertilizer prices not very different from other commodities Index 2000 = 100) 700 600 500 Urea fob Black Sea DAP fob Tampa MOP fob Vancouver Oil Brent Wheat fob US Gulf 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012TD Source: International publications

Relationship between wheat and urea prices ( from 2003 ) 900 Urea fob Black Sea 800 700 600 500 400 y = 1,3164x - 9,6469 R² = 0,5665 300 200 100 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Wheat fob US Gulf

Main fertilizer commodity prices USD/mt 700 Urea fob Black Sea DAP fob Tampa MOP fob Vancouver 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: International publications

Profitability of investment in mineral fertilizers Yield response (monetary value) to N fertilizer rate Income USD/ha 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Yield, ton/ha 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Fertilizer application, kg N/ha The investment in nitrogen fertilizer is highly profitable for growers Fertilizer investment: 261 USD/ha Net return: 1,745 USD/ha Net return > 6 x investment Source: Winter wheat yield data: Long term trial, Broadbalk, Rothamsted (since 1856).

Apparent nitrogen consumption ex. China 100 Standard deviation of annual growth rates: 4%-points 95 million tons nitrogen 90 85 80 75 The trend from 2001-2011 shows a growth rate of 2.1%/year 20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Source: IFA

10 largest ammonia producers in 2011 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 China Russia India USA Indonesia Trinidad Ukraine Canada million tons ammonia Egypt Saudi Arabia 2010 2011 Source: IFA

Main urea flows 2011 Million tonnes 0.8 1.6 0.8 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.7 4.7 1.0 1.8 10.9 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.8 Source: IFA 2011

Net urea export from China 2009 2010 2011 2012 8000 7000 6000 5000 kt product 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lower Chinese urea export price in 2012 Chinese export tax 1 Jul 1 Nov Domestic urea price in China Fob China 700 RMB/t 2 500 650 2011 2 400 600 2 300 550 500 450 2012 2 200 2 100 2 000 1 900 2012 2011 400 1 800 350 1 700 300 1 750 1 950 2 150 2 350 2 550 Domestic price ex works, RMB/t 1 600 Jan Apr Jul Oct * China Fertlizer Market Week

Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China in line with historical consumption growth Year 2011 China 36% Pakistan 24% 2012 China 60% Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative to nitrogen capacity World Excluding China World Excluding China Qatar 14% 2013 China 63% Algeria 14% 2014 China 45% Egypt 13% 2015 China 42% Saudi Arabia 9% Pakistan 37% Iran 18% Qatar 34% Vietnam 20% Algeria 38% UAE 18% Egypt 25% Algeria 16% Saudi Arabia 15% Brazil 14% 1.2% (1.3%) 1.2% (1.3%) 3.5% (4.1%) 2.2% (2.1%) 4.4% (2.7%) 2.6% (3.1%) 1.7% (1.0%) 1.5% (1.2%) 2.6% (1.2%) 2.5% (1.9%) Gross annual addition 2011-2015 ~2.0% Assumed annual closures ~0.5% Net annual addition 2011-2015 ~1.5% Trend consumption growth from 2001 2.5% 2.1% Source: Fertecon urea update October 2012. Consumption data source is IFA. Previous update in brackets.

Continued project delays Million tons Additional urea capacity 8 7,5 7 6 5 5,2 0,4 1,2 Fertecon assumptions: 1 new site in Egypt from Jul 13 Startup in UAE in Jan 13 4 3 2,5 Startups in Algeria in Jul 12, Jan 13 and Jul 13 2 1 2,5 0 2012 Oct 11 est. 2012 Oct 12 est. 2013 Oct 12 est. Source: Fertecon urea updates

Ten largest phosphate rock producers 2011 80 70 Mt Rock 60 50 40 30 2011 2010 20 10 0 Source: IFA

Record net phosphate exports from China Million tons P 2 O 5 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 DAP MAP TSP Other NP Source: IFA, BOABC for 2011. ( Assuming 25% P 2 O 5 in Other NP, included from 2009 )

In 2011 global phosphate rock production increased by 3.8% to 191 million tonnes 200 180 Mt Rock 160 140 2001-2011 annual growth rate 2.1% per year 120 100 80 Excluding China 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: IFA

Main DAP/MAP/TSP flows 2010 (Mt P2O5) 1.28 0.21 0.39 0.34 0.49 0.25 1.17 0.10 0.24 0.19 Source: IFA

In 2011 global potash production increased by 8.2% to 34.3 million tonnes K2O 40 35 2001-2011 trend growth rate 1.0% per year 30 Mt K2O 25 20 15 10 Source: IFA 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ten largest potash producers 2011 12 10 8 2011 2010 Mt K2O 6 4 2 0 Source: IFA

Main potash flows 2011 (Mt K2O) 1.4 3.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.7 0.7 1.9 2.1 Source: IFA

P and K decades of surplus capacity gone USD/mt 700 600 500 Rock fob Morocoo MOP fob Vancouver 400 300 200 100 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: International publications

Phosphate rock reserves are not limited (numbers are billion tons) Source: CRU

Potash Exploration Activity, no lack of resources, it is a question of price PERU GrowMax Agri Corp Salmueras Sudamericanas (SOP) BOLIVIA Comibol ARGENTINA Allana Potash Dajin Resources Lithium Americas Corp Lithium One Marifil Mines Orocobre Rincon Lithium Rodinia Lithium ALBERTA First Lithium Resources Grizzly Discoveries Pacific Potash Corp. Softrock Minerals Universal Potash UNITED KINGDOM Sirius Minerals (SOP) NEWFOUNDLAND& NEW BRUNSWICK Atlantic Potash Corp. Red Moon Potash UNITED STATES American Potash IC Potash (SOP) Mesa Uranium NA Potash Developments Passport Potash Potash Minerals Potash Ridge (SOP) Prospect Global Resources Red Metal Sirius Minerals Universal Potash SASKATCHEWAN BRAZIL Verde Potash Brazil Potash Corp. Lara Exploration Petrobras Aguia Resources Redstone Resources Rio Verde Minerals Vale Western Potash MANITOBA BHP Billiton BHP Billiton Canada Potash Corp. Western Potash Encanto Potash Karnalyte Resources North Atlantic Potash (Acron) Western Potash Vale ERITREA& ETHIOPIA Allana Potash BHP Billiton Ethiopian Potash Corp Ethiopotash NGEx Resources Nova Potash Sainik/ IFFCO South Boulder Mines CONGO MagMinerals Congo Potash Co. Elemental Minerals AUSTRALIA Sirius Minerals Highfield Resources Potash West Rum Jungle Resources South Boulder Mines WPG Resources RUSSIA(URALS) Acron EuroChem KAZAKHSTAN Fortis Mining Satimola MONGOLIA General Mining Corp. TURKMENISTAN Turkmenkhimiya THAILAND& LAOS ASEAN Potash Mining Asia Pacific Potash (Ital-Thai) Mingda Thailand Sinoagri Mining Sinohydro Mining Viet-Lao Salt & Chemicals Zhongliao Mining Kaiyuan Potash AsiaBaseMetals

Ballpark investment costs - Greenfield Potash 2 billion USD for a 1 million ton/year potash mine, USD2000/annual ton Time from start to mine output: 8-10 years Phosphate rock 1.2 billion USD for a 2 million ton/year mine, USD600/annual ton Time from start to mine output: 6-10 years Ammonia/Urea 1.5 billion USD for a 1 million ton/year urea plant, USD1500/annual ton Time from start to production: 4-6 years Source:Department of Natural Resources Canada, British Sulphur(Fosfertil), Stamicarbon