How To Win. at the Cheltenham Festival. and. Answers to The Big 3 Questions

Table of Contents Introduction 1. Is the Festival really A One Off? 2. Is the Course and that Hill that difficult a challenge? 3. What about the Going? 4. Who are the players in terms of Owners? 5. Which Jockeys and Trainers should we look out for? 6. How can we make the most of our Punting? 7. Is Form Study of any use? 8. Any Final Thoughts? 9. Any Free Tips?

Introduction We have asked Carl Nicholson of Value Backing some pertinent questions as to How to Win at Cheltenham. His Value Backing approach looks to find big priced winners and if you are a customer of his Value Backing service then you will know his Modus Operandi. If you are not aware of his work then you should really take a look as we are sure you will find it very useful for your future betting. The aim of this guide is simple. We have asked Carl to hand over some of his hints and secrets for finding those elusive winners at Cheltenham. We are of the same opinion as Carl, There is nothing like Cheltenham in any sporting calendar in my opinion, it is unique to British National Hunt racing and this is where his first hint comes in. "If you would like to get free tips 6 days a week from top tipsters go to www.valuebacking.com/book The selections are taken from his main service and show a good profit. Also check out his Facebook page for occasional inside info http://facebook.com/valuebacking

1. Is the Festival really A One Off? Many of you will have heard the old adage of horses for courses, but this is a case of horses for the Festival meeting. I doubt whether any horse going to the Festival for the first time is going to truly like all the noise and frantic action going on around them. Some will cope better than others and these are the ones that usually run their race no matter what level of ability they have. This is not to say that every winner will automatically win again the next time they run at the Festival, but it is more of a case of judging whether the horse in question has run to its optimum level of ability. You can judge this by having a look at the Racing Post ratings from previous years the horse in question has run there. You would ideally like to see a rating better than they have run before or within 5pts of any previous best run to say that they have run to their merit. This is a good way to identify good novice or flat horses from previous years that may be running in the big graded races this time around. So the first big question we asked Carl was - Does previous experience at a previous Cheltenham festival REALLY count for that much? The simple answer to that question is yes it does. One of my biggest wins came via that method when Lord Windermere won the Gold Cup in 2014. He had previously won the RSA the year before and in good style to. So to my mind he looked well overpriced at 33/1 for the Gold Cup in 2014. But it is not just previous winners that you should look out for. Next Sensation won the closing Grand Annual Handicap at 16/1 having been a very valiant 4 th in the same race the year before, so there are definite clues to be had from the previous year s festival. But don t be tempted to look beyond the previous year however as it tends to have little impact.

2. Is the Course and that Hill really that difficult a challenge? Any one that has been to Cheltenham before will know how stiff a climb it can be for a horse to the winning line. Never mind the uphill and sweeping downhill run before you even get to the winning line. It is a severe test for any horse given that most of the races are run at a strong gallop as well. So my second hint is to look out for any horse that has winning or placed form over slightly further than today s distance. This should mean they have no problem in staying the distance all things being well. 3. What about the Going? Cheltenham is such a high profile course that it will never be allowed to dry out and become firm in any way. It is also so well drained that it will never get that testing similar to the bog like heavy going you would get in Ireland on some courses. So be careful when making any judgments on going comparisons with Irish trained runners that have form on heavy going. As for those horses that run well on good fast going you can forget them full stop as this will more than likely never happen now or in the future.

4. Who are the players in terms of Owners? Most, if not all, of the high profile stables in the UK or Ireland have a least one or two who will plough hundreds of thousands of pounds in to race horse ownership and you can be sure that these trainers want these types of owners to be seen and have runners with decent chances at Cheltenham. One of the surprise packages of the 2014 festival were the runners of Doctor R Lambe with 3 winners and all at very good prices and Windsor Park in 2015 albeit going off at a shorter 9/2. His string is nowhere near the size of the big owners, but he seems to have a few high profile horse s and may be one or two will pop up again this time around. The Dr Lambe charges are worth looking out for if they have won at the festival before and each way is probably the way to go judged on what price they can go off at. The most high profile of these owners in the National Hunt scene in both Ireland and the UK is J.P.McManus who must have ploughed millions of pounds in to the ownership of horses throughout the last 30 years or so. He has a very large string to his name and not just with the high profile trainers. From all accounts he makes sure each one of them is cared for in the right way even if they are not that good on the track and knows when they are ready to run a big race. He also likes a bet and has been known to throw more money in to the betting ring than you or I could dream of. So this is my first secret, look very closely at all J.P McManus owned horses at the Festival. He has had really good Festival successes with his runners in the past and a big string at the Festival, but his runners are always well worth looking out for. Look out for his handicap runners that have run in the past twelve months at the Cheltenham track.

This seems to be his modus operandi in educating his main festival hopes for the handicaps. Obviously he will then be able to work out the ones that act on the course and the ones that don t. With JP being a gambler as well this would make sense in his betting book and give him an edge with the bookies. Watch out for clues in the market, even if it is just a nibble at a fancy price on one trained my someone you have never heard of before in one of the big handicaps or the cross country race, because the chances are JP might be having yet another Cheltenham Festival winner and he has had a fair few down the years I can tell you. As always with the McManus horse s they are certainly worth getting involved with if they are strong in the market in the lead up to the off, no matter what price they are. For anything of 10/1 or above I would go in EW and win only on the single figure priced ones. Another high profile owner that seems to do well at the Festival is Michael Buckley who has had some real stars over the years with Nicky Henderson especially ex French imports. I have no idea if Michael Buckley likes a bet or not, but his horses always seem to be well punted when they run well at the Festival. One owner that might slip under the radar of many is the Barber family. They are the power behind the still relatively new recruit to the training ranks Harry Fry who will go far in years to come because he is very good at his job, mark my words. They are a going to be a force in future festivals and again the horses can be well backed when they are going to run well. Over in Ireland the dominant force is the Willie Mullins stable, but he too has high profile backers in the shape of the Ricci family and the Wylie s. Their charges are sure to be primed for big runs at any festival.

Because of the high profile of the owners and their association with the trainer Willie Mullins, the runners court more hype than most. Their runners are nearly always to the fore of the market and are so over bet they are not really worth bothering with when it comes to a value betting point of view. Other high profile owners to note from Ireland are the Potts family and the Gigginstown House Stud, who are owner breeders. They can have numerous runners at the Festival and always seem to bag a winner or two over the mid-weeks racing. They have grown in to a power house in Ireland and won the owners championship in Ireland last year in a reversal of fortunes with J P McManus. My advice would be to study their runners hard and work out if conditions suit on the day and if they are in form i.e. they have finished in the first 3 in their last race then have a bet on them each way. So as you can see I pay close attention to these high profile owners runners as, when you think about it, they will always want to be centre stage at Cheltenham because of the vast fortunes they have invested in the sport. I do think the festival is fast becoming a rich picking ground for these big owners, because the pool of talent they have far outweighs any other owners.

5. Which Jockeys and Trainers should we look out for? I have no real strong opinion on one certain trainer or jockey doing overly well at the Festival, but as anyone that has read my Value Backing book will know I am a big fan of the jockey Sam Twiston-Davies and he is a future champion jockey for sure. He could be a good bet for leading jockey. Currently available with Sky Bet at 12/1. It is such a strongly competitive few days of sport that any one person would find it hard to dominate, but there is no doubt that the second big question this year is With Willie Mullins appearing to have such a strong hand in many races at Cheltenham how should I approach his runners? There is little doubt that the Mullins yard does have the look of a big monster waiting to crush any opposition in its way at the festival this year. There is any number of Mullins runners to the fore of many of the ante post markets this year, but I think the way to approach his runners is to remember the yard has such large strength in depth. Many of you who follow the Irish racing will be well aware that Mullins does not just win with the odds on favourite with Ruby Walsh riding, but wins with plenty of second or even supposed third or 4 th strings in races. So, for me the way to approach his runners is to look beyond the obvious contenders to the fore of the market. There will be plenty of media attention to those runners with no doubt TV pundits going on about multiples of the supposed Mullins good things etc. Don t get caught up in the hype and look deeper down in to his runners, look for the unexposed sort, or well-bred expensive purchases as there is sure to be a juicy priced one or two lurking in there with his runners this year.

With regards to jockeys there have of course been years when Ruby Walsh has ridden several winners, but they tend to be so over bet nowadays that it is hard to get any value from them. One thing I would say is to watch the form of the major yards running up to the Festival as there have been occasions when one of them has been struggling for winners in the lead up and yet their runners still go off short in the markets. Another would be hot streak jockeys or trainers, because if they have ridden or trained a couple of winners on the first day or two chances are their confidence will be sky high for the rest of the meeting.

6. How can we make the most of our Punting? This is my next secret. The power a punter has over these few days in March over the bookmaker is staggering! Putting it simply all the bookmakers will be climbing over each other to get YOUR BUSINESS for those few days. There are more offers and free bets going around than at any other time of the year just for opening an account or betting on a certain race because it is on TV at Cheltenham. Money back specials for losers, the list goes on and on, but above all is the very competitive nature of the prices that are on offer. Certain bookmakers will match industry best price, others will have best odds guaranteed i.e. if you take a price and the starting price is bigger you will get that SP price. Now I am not saying do not back with exchanges but, because nowadays most punters are now fooled in to thinking that only the exchanges offer the best way to bet, they ignore the fact that there is very good value to be had with the traditional bookmaker and of course with most bookmaking firms they pay double result in the event of a stewards enquiry. Of course if you fancy an outsider chances are you will get a bigger price on the exchange, but there is very little strength money wise in these runners, so you may only get a percentage of the bet you want in any case. Use the traditional bookmaker, open up as many accounts as you can and make the best of those few days when the odds are certainly in your favour.

7. Is Form Study of any use? As with any time you have a serious bet you should give over plenty of time to your form studying. I like to start five days in advance of the meeting starting as the top race markets are pretty well formed, at that stage and you may well find you can nab a good price or two. I like to pay close attention to a horse that can lay up with the pace as Cheltenham can be a bit of a graveyard for those hold up performers. This is because the large field sizes and the fast pace can cause all sorts of mayhem in behind with fallers and blunders. A selection does not have to lead, but as long as it has form in being prominent in recent races the chances are it will have a better chance of winning.

8. Any Final Thoughts Don t back horses which have fallen or unseated in their last two runs. Take note of any mount that any of the Carberry family of jockey s ride that is priced 20 1 or above. They are a very well-schooled family in the art of winning at Cheltenham and know what is what when it comes to winning on a big priced one. A few years ago I looked in to a system of only backing horses at the Cheltenham Festival that had their last run 28 days or less previously. It came up with some very big priced placed horses and winners, so for those of you who like a system to follow it may be worth looking at again. Let us look at the detail in the system. The horse must have won or come second in a race within the 28 day period. There are no ground conditions or class conditions. The reasoning behind this is that for a horse to win at Cheltenham it must be very fit as the races place the hardest test for a horse. Be careful not to get too carried away and try and bet in every race on every day just for the sake of it. What can be a very enjoyable and fun packed four days can quickly turn in to a bit of a nightmare if you are chasing loses. Stick to whatever your plans or reasoning were at the start of the meeting. Try and have a special Cheltenham only betting bank that is separate from you normal betting fund.

And our final big question 9. Any Free Tips? I do have one in particular, but firstly let me explain how I made the decision. For many years now the Irish seemed to have a strangle hold on bumper horses i.e. National Hunt Flat horses, but for the past couple of seasons I have noticed a bit of a shift in power in this sphere back to the UK. Now as always, the Mullins yard still wins its fair share of those races over in Ireland, and even the Gordon Elliot yard seems to be mopping up a few as well, but there is little strength in depth now to those races in Ireland and I feel the strength is very much with the UK based stables. Nicky Henderson always seems to have a good crop, but they never seem to make that much impact in the Cheltenham bumper. Phillip Hobbs too has a few decent sorts seen out so far, but the one that has impressed me more than any is the Twiston Davies trained Ballyandy. The horse is 3 from 4 in bumpers and the only time he was beaten was giving lumps of weight to a decent one back at Ascot in December. He looks very good. Already he has a course win to his name and in my opinion off level weights in the Cheltenham bumper it will take a very good one to turn him over. He is available at 10 1 in a place or two and looks very good value each way at that price for the bumper. I d also include Ballyandy in the following ½ point each way Yankee My Tent Or Yours (Champion Hurdle) Gen 8/1 Mystical Knight (Albert Bartlett) Gen 33/1 Bloody Mary (Mares Nov Hurdle) Gen 14/1 Ballyandy (Champion Bumper) Gen 10/1

We hope that you find the above answers some of your Cheltenham questions and will help you to find your winner at what is sure to be a very exciting Cheltenham Festival 2016. All the best The Value Backing Team If you haven t already signed up for Carl's Cheltenham selections he has a special offer available at http://www.valuebacking.com/diary/cheltenham-special/

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