Rural Energy Conference Planning the Construction of Lake Dorothy Hydro By Tim McLeod President Alaska Electric Light and Power

Rural Energy Conference Planning the Construction of Lake Dorothy Hydro By Tim McLeod President Alaska Electric Light and Power

Under the provisions of the its tariff, a utility is obligated to provide service to customers within its service territory

Major Considerations Load projections Generating/system capacity Production alternatives Timing/lead time Permitting/constructability Environmental Impacts Financing Rates Reliability Regulatory Approval

GWh Juneau Area Energy 700 600 Dorothy Phase 2 500 Dorothy Phase 1 1.3% growth 400 300 200 100 0 Snett Phase 1 1970 1973 Snett Phase 2 Salmon, Annex, Gold Creeks 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Wind Solar Tidal Current Wave Action Geothermal Biomass Landfill Gas Hydro Diesel Coal Natural gas Alternatives

Rate Impact Rates are formula driven Total revenue requirement all costs including the cost of capital / kwh sales Costs are appropriately distributed to various customer classes based on the cost of service

Diesel vs. Hydro Diesel Cheap to build expensive to run Defined out-put Installed near loads Burning diesel is a poor investment Hydro Expensive to build cheap to run Variable out-put (weather dependent) Not ideal locations Long vulnerable transmission lines Good community investment

Conclusion: For Juneau, the alternative that will provide the lowest cost and most reliable energy is A Combination of Hydro and Diesel Hydro for base loading Diesel for back-up

inflow (ac-ft) Energy (MWh) Hydro storage vs. run of river Snettisham Inflow and Energy Demand 70,000 35,000 60,000 30,000 50,000 25,000 40,000 20,000 30,000 15,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 0 firm energy LL inflows

Phasing the project to match demand

Lake Dorothy Hydroelectric Project Site

Cost per KWH Rate impact illustration Total Cost to Ratepayers 20 10 Without new hydro With new hydro 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 Year

Cents per KWH Rate impact illustration delayed construction Total Cost to Ratepayers 20 10 Without new hydro With new hydro 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 Year

Cents per KWH Rate impact illustration delayed construction Total Cost to Ratepayers 20 10 Without new hydro With new hydro 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 Year

Constructability

Access Road Construction 2007 (working from tidewater to Bart Lake))

Reliability- Tower destroyed in 2008 avalanche Photo By AELP

The advantages of surplus hydro capacity Available for load growth Provides rate stability Enables incentive rates Avoid diesel use during dry years The disadvantage of surplus hydro capacity Higher output cost per kwh (hydro costs are mostly fixed)

Megawatt hours HYDRO OUTPUT IS VARIABLE Annual MWH Output Year

Megawatt hours HYDRO OUTPUT IS VARIABLE Annual MWH Output Firm Customer Load Requirements Annual MWH Year

Megawatt hours New Hydro plant constructed when average output matches firm loads Water spills from reservoirs Firm Load Diesel generation is used to supplement hydro Year

Megawatt hours Early construction of new hydro Water spills from reservoirs Revenue from surplus energy sales used to satisfy revenue requirement Firm Load Diesel used to supplement hydro Year

Princess Cruises Shore Power Facility Unique challenge Cleaner air Surplus energy sales benefit others

9 miles of submarine cable and 14 miles of overhead transmission line connected Greens Creek Mine on Admiralty Island

AELP Interruptible Loads Dual Fuel Space Heating Residential Federal Building University Library Princess Cruises Shore Power Greens Creek Mine Total 80,000,000 kwh s annually Approximately 20% of total sales are interruptible With average precipitation, interruptible loads contribute over $7 million to AELP revenue requirement annually

$ per kwh - Base Forecast Average Water Year 0.2500 0.2000 0.1500 Rev/kwh no LD Rev/kwh with LD 0.1000 0.0500 0.0000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

$ per kwh - Base Forecast Firm Water Year 0.3500 0.3000 0.2500 0.2000 Rev/kwh no LD Rev/kwh with LD 0.1500 0.1000 0.0500 0.0000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

$ per kwh - Some Electric Heat in Load Forecast Average Water Year 0.3500 0.3000 0.2500 0.2000 0.1500 Rev/kwh no LD Rev/kwh with LD 0.1000 0.0500 0.0000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

Lake Dorothy