PLAYBOOK presents: VICTOR KING S NFL O/U Single Issue $8.00 TOTALS TIPSHEET Rest of Season: $8.00 NFL10* GOY hits 73 points (NYG / Car OVER)! This week: All THREE Best Bets are Unders Volume 9, Issue 16 December 24th-28th, There s nothing like GOOD TIMING during the holiday season. Our bankrolls are all a little bigger today than they were last week at this time. And because of that, we all have a little extra cash to spend on the Christmas presents as we celebrate the Holidays with friends and family later this week. For me, it s pretty much a complete reversal from where I was last year at this time. 12 months ago, I was in a state of Bah Humbug. It was just a few short weeks after the heart attack. I was rehabbing at home after ten days in the hospital and only working a few hours a day at the Playbook offices. I really didn t give a crap about any of the NFL games or the College Bowl games. All I cared about was taking the daily meds that took away my pain. But here we are one year later. I ve stopped smoking tobacco. I ve lost 25 to 30 pounds. I m up to about 30 miles per week in walking / jogging. With my wife s support. I ve found a new appreciation for things after I was given my life back. I have a new passion for handicappng that was lost last year. I m excited for the current College Bowls and looking forward to the NFL post-season. And I m actually a little bummed that this is the second LAST Totals Tipsheet of the season. Good results for us last week. Totals Tipsheet Best Bets went 3-1... just like they did two issues ago. The record for the entire season is now 26-22 (). The bonus plays that we have included have done well. Our gameday service released a 10* NFL Game of the Year last Sunday. We thank all Tipsheet customers who joined us for that oncea-year Best Bet. After sending out an email blast on Saturday morning promoting the 10* Play, I had many Tipsheet clients who called in and took advantage of that Best Bet at the reduced price of just $35.00 (it was on sale at the Playbook.com website for $75). The play was on OVER the TOTAL in the NY GIANTS / CAROLINA PANTHERS game. And it cashed very easily. In fact, the winner was marked up with 1:15 remaining in the THIRD quarter. It s always a great feeling when your highest rated OVER of the Week also happens to be the NFL game in which the MOST points were scored (Giants + Panthers combined for 73 points). Here s your Tipsheet review: Bears / Vikings UNDER the TOTAL (44 pts) Our lead play in the Tipsheet started off well, as the score was just 7 to 0 after one quarter. With 5 minutes left in the second quarter, the score was 10 to 7 and we were in pretty decent shape as both teams were struggling on offense. But a late Minnesota TD made it 17-7 at the half. They came back with another TD in the third quarter. With five minutes left in the game, we still had a shot as the score was 31 to 10. But each team scored a TD in those last five minutes. Result? A loss by 11 points. Minnesota chose THIS week to have their best scoring outburst of the season... Texans @ Colts UNDER the TOTAL (42 pts) Our second Best Bet was another division game. And this one had a much easier outcome. When you re on the UNDER, and the score is 0-0 after one quarter... you re feeling pretty good. At the half, the score was 10-3. In the third quarter, there was just ONE score (a field goal). So we had a 26-point cushion heading into the last period. That s when Houston came from behind to take the lead with 10 unanswered points. Final score was 16 to 10 (a winner by 16 points). Both teams combined for 11 punts (the BEST friend of the UNDER player!)... only 495 TOTAL offensive yards... and 290 passing yards. Falcons @ Jaguars UNDER the TOTAL (48 pts) Speedee s Under of the Week was in one those AFC / NFC nonconference games that had been going UNDER at a high percentage this season. Atlanta took a 7-0 lead after one quarter... and they were up 17-3 at the half. The host Jaguars came roaring back in quarter #3 when they scored 2 TD s to tie the game at 17 apiece. Heading into the fourth quarter, we needed less TD s and more FG s. That s exactly what we got. Atlanta s offense stalled twice in the Red Zone. They came away with two field goals and finally broke their 6-game losing streak (final score was 23-17 / winner by 8 points). Just like in the game listed above, this one had 11 punts and neither team had more than 350 total offensive yards. Lions @ Saints OVER the TOTAL (52 pts) Our bonus play was in the Primetime Monday night game. As Speedee and I were watching it, a lot of the RED ZONE stats that we mentioned in the writeup came true to form. Instead of FG s, Detroit was scoring TD s. Not surprising, given their current Red Zone TD% of 75% on the road. At the half, the score was 21 to 3. After three quarters, the Lions lead was 28 to 10. We needed three scores in quarter #4. The winner officially cashed at the 6 minute mark, and New Orleans added a last TD for extra measure. This one didn t have quite the amount of points that our 10* GAME of the YEAR did (Giants / Panthers OVER). But we ll gladly take it (62 pts / 795 total offensive yards) and it s always SWEET to close out the week with a Monday WIN. AFC home teams playing their third STRAIGHT non-conference game in a row (BUFFALO BILLS) have gone 1-9 O/U... 1
3* Panthers @ Falcons UNDER ALL three of this week s Tipsheet Best Bets are UNDERS in division games... and it starts with this one from the NFC South. We ll Go LOW in a Panthers / Falcons SERIES which has seen the UNDER go a PERFECT 5-0 in the last five meetings IN Atlanta (0-5 O/U), with an average of only 39.2 combined PPG. We also cannot ignore the fact that Atlanta is now on a current 10-GAME Under streak (that s 0-10 O/U last 10 gms!) dating back to early October, with an average margin of -8.6 points per game. If you check out the ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO page, then you know that this has been an EXTREMELY low-scoring week for teams in the 1st of back-to-back division games. 8-32-2 O/U since 2008 (80%) / 0-9-1 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 15 teams playing in the first of BB division games (Panthers + Falcons) when the OU line is > 41 points. The Falcons will be playing their first home game in a month, as they are off 3 road contests in a row. 0-6 O/U last 6 years: All home underdogs of > 3 points off 3 or more ROAD games in a row 2* Steelers @ Ravens UNDER In our second Best Bet, we ll be going UNDER in yet another Week 16 division contest. The OU line in this one opened at 49 points, and has already dropped by a point or two (so get your action in ASAP). The last 10 meetings of this Steelers / Ravens SERIES played IN Baltimore have averaged only 34.5 combined PPG. This AFC North Division game has many of the same low-scoring elements as our Panther / Falcons play. The first similarity: Both of these teams will close the regular season with BB division games in a row. 8-32-2 O/U since 2008 (80%) / 0-9-1 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 15 teams playing in the first of BB division games (Steelers + Ravens) when the OU line is > 41 points. The second similarity has to do with the pointspread. Baltimore is catching a TD or more at home, just like the Falcons are. BIG division home underdogs of +7 > pts (Balt) have gone 2-14-1 O/U in the last 4 years (and 0-6-1 O/U in last 12 months) when the OU line is > 44 pts. Not only that, but the pointspread in this one is going UP. Pittsburgh opened as a -7 pt 2* (Atl) when the OU line is 50 < points. Atlanta s big road win against the Jaguars last week stopped the bleeding from a 6-GAME losing streak. 1-9 O/U since 2003 / 0-5 O/U since 2008: All DIVISION home teams off a SU road win that BROKE a 6+ game losing streak (Atl). At last look, the Falcons were getting a TD or MORE (+7 >) in this game. BIG division home underdogs of +7 > pts (Atl) have gone 2-14-1 O/U in the last 4 years (and 0-6-1 O/U in last 12 months) when the OU line is > 44 pts. As eveyone is aware, Carolina is still undefeated (12-0 SU / 1.000 winning percentage) off that close road win against the Giants last week. 1-10 O/U since 2006: All GAME 12 or greater division favorites of -6 > pts (Car) who have a current W/L percentage of.900 or higher. In that close shave win over the G-Men, the final score was 38 to 35 (HOORAY for us 10* GOY Over players!). 0-8 O/U last 2 seasons: All GAME 10 or greater teams off a non-division game in which they scored AND allowed 35 > points (Panthers). road favorite. As we type this on Tuesday morning, they are up to -10.5 Onhhhhhhh or -11 points! Extremely large NFL road favorites of -10 or MORE points (Steelers) have gone 1-11 O/U in the last 4 years when the OU line is 41 > points. Baltimore has looked pretty pathetic since losing QB Joe Flacco. They lost at home by 29 points versus Seattle 2 weeks ago, and 20 points at home versus the Chiefs last Sunday. 2-12 O/U since 1991 / 0-5 O/U last 9 years: All NFL underdogs of > 6 points off back-toback DOUBLE DIGIT home losses (Ravens) when the OU line is > 40 points. We are aware that Pittsburgh s offense is in a groove (35.0 ppg last 6). NFL GAME 8 > road teams who have scored 33 > pts in EACH of their last 3 games (Pit) have gone 2-14 O/U when the OU line is 47 > points. SO the Steelers are scoring a lot lately, and the Ravens are GIVING UP a lot of points lately. 1-9 O/U: All favorites of -11 < points who scored 33 > pts in L2 gms (Pit) vs an opponent who ALLOWED 33 > pts in L2 gms (Balt). Texans @ Titans Speedee s been on a ROLL with his Unders in December, and as a result... he will find a brand new SQUEAKY TOY under the Christmas tree this Friday! He will also GO LOW in this AFC South Division game between two dysfunctional scoring offenses. That would be #27 Houston (19.6 ppg) and #28 Tennessee (19.2 ppg). Not only that, but BOTH teams are down to their 2nd OR 3rd string QB S in this game. So it looks like points will be at a premium in this one. Both teams have scored identical point totals of 16 and 10 points in their last two games. 1-12 O/U s 95 / 0-8 O/U s;99: All NFL games in which BOTH teams scored 16 < pts and 10 < pts in EACH of their last 2 games (Hou @ Ten) when the OU line is 35 > points. Houston comes in at 7-7 SU (.500) and is NOW the divison leader. 1-8 O/U L4Y: All GAME 15 road teams who are.500 on the year (Hou). The Texans just upset the Colts last Sunday to take first place in the division. 1-7 O/U L2Y: All road teams off a SU division road DOG win of 6 > pts (Hou). Tennessee comes in off back-to-back BLOWOUT losses of 17 and 22 points. 1-10 O/U s;06: All home favorites of < 6 points off BB SU losses of 17 > pts EACH (Ten). We are well aware that the Tennessee defense has allowed 33, 30, and 39 points in their last three games. 1-9 O/U last 5 years: All GAME NINE or greater home teams who allowed 30 > pts in EACH of their last three games (Ten). 2
ALL SYSTEMS ARE THIS WEEK S HIGH PERCENTAGE O/U SYSTEMS NFL Week 15 results / Week 16 lines In terms of NFL Over / Under results, it s been petty much a roller coaster season in. Case-in-point: After the LOWEST scoring week of the season (Week 14), last weekend s games reversed course and went 10-6 O/U. The average OU line was 45.3 points. The average combined points per game went up almost a FULL 10 points compared to the previous week (from 40.1 to 49.7). That average of 49.7 is the highest in any week of the season. The average game went OVER by +4.4 points ppg (compared to -4.9 ppg LAST week). Out of the 16 total games, HALF of em (eight) had 50 or more points scored. After fourteen weeks, NFL games have now gone 107-113-4 for the year. Breaking down last week s results, DIVISION games went 1-1 O/U. These games have gone 13-26-1 O/U ( Unders) since the beginning of November. For the season, NFL games within the same division have now gone 33-39-1 O/U. Next up is the AFC CONFERENCE non-division games. The high-scoring pattern that had previously been enjoyed all season long went right back to making money for OVER players. Those games went 3-1 O/U on Sunday (Ten @ NEng / KC @ Balt / Den @ Pit). They have now gone 30-14-1 O/U on the year ( Overs). There are three more of these potential high-scoring games this week (Clev @ KC / Indy @ Mia / Cin @ Den). Moving on, NFC CONFERENCE non-division games also paid off again for OVER players. They went a perfect 4-0 O/U last week. Those four games averaged a very impressive 61.5 combined ppg. They were: Bucs @ Rams (Thursday night)... Panther @ Giants (King s 10* GOY went OVER by +26.5 pts!)... Cards @ Eagles (Sunday night)... and Lions @ Saints (Monday night). On the season, these games have gone 24-20 O/U. BALTIMORE BUFFALO CINCINNATI CLEVELAND DENVER HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE KANSAS CITY MIAMI NEW ENGLAND NY JETS OAKLAND PITTSBURGH SAN DIEGO TENNESSEE 41.9 41.8 42.0 43.3 41.2 43.0 42.4 39.4 40.8 43.8 48.8 44.7 47.4 49.2 43.0 38.6 38.7 43.9 43.9 40.0 39.8 42.1 44.4 46.3 43.8 42.6 51.5 40.8 43.5 43.3 46.1 43.7 Finally, NON-conference games (AFC vs NFC) went 2-4 O/U last week... and continued their extremely strong UNDER tendencies. These AFC vs NFC games now stand at 20-40-2 O/U on the season. That s of ALL of these AFC vs NFC games that have gone Under the Total. There s only two more of these games scheduled for the rest of the year, and they go this week: Jaguars @ Saints and Cowboys @ Bills. Breaking it down even further: Thursday games have gone 7-10 O/U this season. The Sunday early-kickoff games have gone 57-66-1 O/U overall (5-2 O/U last week). The Sunday late-kickoff games went 2-3 O/U... and have gone 29-19-2 O/U ( Overs). Meanwhile, the Primetime (night) games went a PERFECT 3-0 O/U last week. It was only the second week all season long in which all THREE Primetime games went OVER the Total. They ve now gone 19-27 O/U ( Unders). And despite two straight OVERS in a row, MONDAY NIGHT games have still gone 6-11 O/U on the year. As of now (Tuesday), there are no OU lines in two games (Ind @ Mia/ Hou @ Ten). But in the remainging 14 games, the average OU line is 45.6. Go LOW: Game 15... in FIRST of BB division games It s been about ten years now that the NFL schedule-makers started introducing a Division-HEAVY emphasis in the last few games of the regular season. The idea behind it was to stop many of the Playoff-bound teams from tanking it in the last two games after they had already secured their spot in post-season play. And it s resulted in many more meaningful games. One of the first queries that I made in the database on Sunday night was a look at teams who closed the season with not one... but TWO straight division games in the final two weeks. Nothing jumped out at me in regards to the final game. But the results in the game before that (Game 15) were UNDER-whelming (pun intended). NFLGAME 15 teams playing in the FIRST of back-to-back division games have gone 19-47-2 O/U since the 2008 season. So let s be clear. Thiss query is for teams in Week 16 (which is actually their 15th game of the year) who close the season with back-toback DIVISION games. For these teams, the UNDER has come home at a 71% rate. That s pretty impressive. More than 2 out of every 3 of these games have gone UNDER. But there s a tightener that boosts the low-scoring tendency even higher. If the OU line in these DIVISION games is greater than (>) 41 points, the results improve to 8-32-2 O/U... That s an UNDER percentage of 80%. We also note that in the last two seasons, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-9-1 O/U. The games that qualify in this EXTREME low-scoring pattern this week are: San Diego @ Oakland (Thursday)... Washington @ Philadelphia (Saturday)... New England @ NY Jets... Carolina @ Atlanta... Pittsburgh @ Baltimore... and Houston @ Tennessee. These six games have the BEST Under potential for the week. ARIZONA ATLANTA CAROLINA CHICAGO DALLAS DETROIT GREEN BAY MINNESOTA NEW ORLEANS NY GIANTS PHILADELPHIA SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE ST. LOUIS TAMPA BAY WASHINGTON 49.0 45.6 45.3 43.9 42.4 47.5 44.4 42.0 55.3 51.5 46.2 35.7 46.3 39.4 48.6 44.0 46.2 41.4 48.2 42.4 36.5 44.0 47.1 38.2 48.6 49.2 50.1 44.9 41.8 37.2 44.9 48.5 POWER RATINGS COMPUTATION Compute the point difference between the home and away team. Multiply that number times. The resulting number should be SUBTRACTED from the road team, if their OU rating is higher than the home team s rating. The number should be ADDED to the road team if their OU rating is lower than the home team s rating. Example: St Louis (39.8) @ New England (53.3). Difference is 13.5. Multiply times.666 and the result is 12.6. Round off if needed. Add 12.6 pts to the road team (39.8) rating to get a suggested OU Power Rating of 48.8 for this game. 3
SD Chargers OAK RAIDERS Wash Redskins PHIL EAGLES NY Giants MIN VIKINGS Chi Bears TBAY BUCCANEERS Car Panthers ATL FALCONS Dal Cowboys BUF BILLS Jac Jaguars NEW ORL SAINTS San Fran 49ers DET LIONS Clev Browns KC CHIEFS Ind Colts MIA DOLPHINS New Eng Patriots NY JETS Hou Texans TEN TITANS GBay Packers ARZ CARDINALS Stl Rams SEA SEAHAWKS Pit Steelers BAL RAVENS Cin Bengals DEN BRONCOS 9-3 O/U as div RD s 9 < pts... 12-4 O/U in 1st of BB RG... 3-1 O/U aft Mia... 5-2 O/U Gm 15... but 2-5 O/U on Thursdays 6-2 O/U L8 home vs SD (50.3)... but 1-7 O/U as div HF s 6 < pts... 1-4-1 O/U bef KC... 1-3 O/U Gm 15... 2-4 O/U on Thursdays 4-0-1 O/U on Saturdays... 5-2 O/U aft Buf... but 1-4 O/U 1st of BB RG... 2-7 O/U bef Dal... 2-7 O/U as div dogs 5 < pts 3-0 O/U Last Home Gm... 4-1 O/U bef NYG... 3-1-1 O/U 1st of BB div gms... but 1-5-1 O/U Saturdays... 2-9 O/U div HF s 5 < pts 5-1 O/U non-div conf RD s 5 < pts... but 1-4 O/U Last Road Gm... 1-3 O/U vs NFC North... 1-3 O/U L4 vs Min (36.0)... 2-5 O/U bef Phil 5-0 O/U home vs NFC East... 3-1 O/U Gm 15... but 0-3 O/U TY non-div HF s 5 <... 3-9 O/U off div HG... 1-3 O/U Last Home gm 4-0 O/U opp off Thur gm... 5-1 O/U Gm 15... 5-1 O/U 2nd of BB RG... but 0-4 O/U bef Det... 1-4 O/U vs NFC South... 3-7 O/U off div RG 3-0 O/U aft Thur gm... 8-1 O/U off BB SUATS losses... but 0-3 O/U Gm 15... 1-4 O/U L5 vs NFC North... 2-6 O/U L8 vs Chi (35.7) 0-5 O/U L5 vs Atl (39.2)... 0-3 O/U aft allow 35 > pts... 1-10 O/U off SU win 4 < pts... 1-4 O/U as RF s 6 > pts... 1-3 O/U aft NYG 1-5 O/U 1st of BB div gms... 1-4 O/U bef Norl... 1-3 O/U off 3 straight RG... 1-3 O/U as div HD s... 2-5 O/U Gm 15 6-1 O/U off non-conf HG... 5-1 O/U bef Wash... but 0-4 O/U aft Sat gm... 1-5 O/U Last Road Gm... 1-4 O/U vs AFC East 2-0 O/U L2 vs Dal (50.0)... 6-1 O/U vs.333 < opp Gm 10 >... but 1-5 O/U as non-conf HF s... 2-7 O/U bef NYJ... 1-3 O/U aft Wash 4-1 O/U bef Hou... 4-1 O/U 2nd of BB non-conf gms... 3-1 O/U in 1st of BB RG... 3-1 O/U aft Atl... but 1-5 O/U Gm 15 7-1 O/U aft Det... 5-1 O/U home vs AFC... 3-1 O/U aft Mon HG... 3-1 O/U Last Home Gm... but 3-10 O/U Gm 15... 2-5 O/U bef div RG 3-0 O/U aft Cin... 4-1 O/U Last Road Gm... but 0-8-1 O/U L9 vs Det (39.2)... 2-10 O/U bef Stl... 2-5 O/U off BB non-conf gms 6-2 O/U as non-div HF s 4 > pts... but 0-4 O/U Gm 15... 1-4 O/U L5 vs NFC West... 1-4 O/U Last Home Gm... 2-4 O/U bef Chi 5-1 O/U vs AFC West... but 0-5 O/U Last Road Gm... 1-8 O/U as DD dogs... 1-4 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... 3-7 O/U bef Pit 4-1 O/U bef Oak... 5-2 O/U L7 vs Clev (54.4)... but 0-4 O/U Gm 15... 1-5 O/U in 1st of BB HG... 2-9 O/U aft Balt 6-1 O/U away vs AFC East... 4-1 O/U aft score 10 < pts... 4-2 O/U bef Ten... but 0-4 O/U Last Road Gm... 2-6 O/U aft Hou 4-1 O/U L5 vs Ind (45.2)... 4-1 O/U home bef div HG... 7-2 O/U bef NEng... 5-2 O/U Gm 15... but 0-3 O/U aft SD 4-0 O/U as div RF s < 7 pts... 11-3 O/U in 1st of BB div gms... 5-2 O/U bef Mia... but 1-4 O/U aft Ten... 1-3 O/U in 1st of BB RG 9-2 O/U L11 vs NEng (48.6)... 3-1 O/U bef Buf... but 1-6 O/U off SU win 3 < pts... 1-4 O/U L5 as HD s... 1-3 O/U Last Home Gm 7-3 O/U L10 vs Ten (44.5)... but 0-5 O/U Gm 15... 0-3 O/U aft RG vs Ind... 1-4 O/U away vs <.333 opp Gm 12 >... 3-10 O/U L13 div RG 5-2 O/U Gm 15... but 0-5 O/U aft allow 33 > pts... 0-3-1 O/U bef RG vs Ind... 1-4 O/U in 1st of BB div gms... 1-4 O/U vs.500 opp 7-1 O/U away vs NFC West... 5-1 O/U Gm 15... 4-1 O/U non-div dogs 6 < pts... 6-2 O/U 2nd of BB RG.. but 1-3O/U aft Oak 6-1 O/U non-div favs 6 < pts... 4-1 O/U in 1st of BB HG... 3-1 O/U L4 vs GB (57.2)... 8-3 O/U Gm 15... but 2-6 O/U aft Phil 5-1 O/U aft Thur gm... but 0-6 O/U dogs 9 > pts... 0-5 O/U off SUATS home fav win... 1-4 O/U in 1st of BB RG... 2-8 O/U aft TBay 0-10 O/U Last Home Gm... 1-5 O/U L6 home vs STL (31.3)... 1-4 O/U bef SF... 1-3 O/U vs opp off Thur gm... 1-3 O/U aft Clev 0-6 O/U vs <.333 opp Gm 12 >... 0-3 O/U aft Den... 1-5 O/U in 1st of BB RG... 1-4 O/U Gm 15... 1-3 O/U off SU win / ATS loss 2-8 O/U in 1st of BB div gms... 2-8 O/U home aft allow 34 > pts... 1-4 O/U Gm 15... 3-11 O/U in 2nd of BB HG... 3-7 O/U bef Cin 11-2 O/U Monday RG... 4-1 O/U L5 vs Den (46.2)... but 0-5 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... 1-4-1 O/U bef Balt... 2-7 O/U off non-conf RG 6-0 O/U in 1st of BB HG... 6-0 O/U vs >.666 opp Gm 12 >... 3-0 O/U on Mondays... 10-1 O/U vs AFC North... but 1-3 O/U aft Pit RECENT O/U PATTERNS based on previous or next opp (system pertains to team in parenthesis) MONTH to Month Individual Team O/U Tendencies In Games 13-16 of the season DECEMBER The League (JAX) is 5-0 O/U BEFORE Texans The League (DEN) is 4-0 O/U BEFORE Chargers The League (OAK) is 0-5-1 O/U BEFORE Chiefs The League (CHI) is 0-4 O/U BEFORE Lions The League (ARZ) is 1-5 O/U BEFORE Seahawks The League (DET) is 1-5-1 O/U BEFORE Bears The League (NYJ) is 10-1 O/U AFTER Cowboys The League (IND) is 5-1 O/U AFTER Texans The League (NE) is 4-1 O/U AFTER Titans The League (CAR) is 0-5 O/U AFTER Giants The League (ATL) is 0-5-1 O/U AFTER Jaguars The League (OAK) is 1-5 O/U AFTER Packers ARZ: 8-1-1 O/U home L5Y ATL: 1-5 O/U home L3Y BAL: 1-5 O/U away L3Y BUF: 2-4 O/U home L3Y CAR: 1-5 O/U home L3Y CHI: 5-1 O/U away L3Y CIN: 7-2 O/U home L4Y CIN: 2-8 O/U away L4Y CLE: 4-14-1 O/U L4Y GB: 7-3 O/U home L4Y HOU: 3-10 O/U L3Y IND: 4-16 O/U L4Y JAX: 3-7 O/U home L4Y KC: 1-7 O/U home L3Y MIA: 3-8 O/U home L4Y MIA: 6-3 O/U away L4Y MIN: 6-3 O/U away L4Y NE: 11-2 O/U home L5Y PHI: 10-3-1 O/U L3Y SD: 1-11 O/U L3Y SF: 7-3 O/U away L4Y STL: 2-11 O/U L3Y TB: 1-7 O/U home L3Y TEN: 1-4 O/U home L2Y
NFL Red Zone TD Scoring Percentages (OFF + DEF) Last 2 Years ARIZONA ATLANTA BALTIMORE BUFFALO CAROLINA CHICAGO CINCINNATI CLEVELAND DALLAS DENVER DETROIT GREEN BAY HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE KANSAS CITY MIAMI MINNESOTA NEW ENGLAND NEW ORLEANS NY GIANTS NY JETS OAKLAND PHILADELPHIA PITTSBURGH ST. LOUIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE TAMPA BAY TENNESSEE WASHINGTON Getting into the RED ZONE. Once an offense gets there, it can result in 7 pts (TD) or 3 pts (FG) or 0 pts (turning the ball over or losing it on downs). The difference between a TD or FG occuring in the Red Zone can sometimes be the difference between an OVER or an UNDER cashing. Here s the home and away TD percentages of teams (on offense and defense) in the Red Zone over the last two seasons. HIGHER percentages (in BOLD) increase the odds of an Over hitting. LOWER percentages tend to lead to more Unders. We ll update this chart throughout the season. 71% 73% 39% OFFENSIVE RED ZONE TD SCORING % DEFENSIVE RED ZONE TD SCORING % 27% 33% 75% 30% 28% 78% 77% 71% 77% 51% 74% 75% 29% 77% 75% 74% 33% Don t forget the UNDERDOGS! 32% 37% 51% 83% 49% 39% 71% 51% 76% With all the hoopla surrounding King s Sunday 10* NFL Game of the Year, Speedee ended up passing last week... as he did not find a worthy enough underdog for his service. But Man s Best Friend WILL return this Sunday with the TOP DOG for Week 16 action. Available on gameday for $25 - $35 each at PLAYBOOK.com! TOTALS TIPSHEET subscribers: Get ALL 3 PRIMETIME Plays for just $50! 5
NFL Home/Away O/U Results & Average Total Points Last 4 Years Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Miami Minnesota New England New Orleans NY Giants NY Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Diego San Francisco Seattle Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington 2012 2011 LAST 4 YEARS 4-2 / 50.3 1-5 / 46.8 4-3 / 47.2 4-2 / 50.5 4-2-1 / 50.3 4-3 / 47.6 3-4 / 42.7 5-2 / 46.6 4-3 / 46.2 1-4-1 / 39.5 5-2 / 50.4 1-6 / 41.4 3-4 / 36.0 2-5 / 39.9 4-3 / 45.4 2-3 / 38.2 3-2 / 49.2 2-5 / 42.1 4-4 / 49.3 4-3 / 63.9 5-2 / 52.8 4-3 / 46.0 5-1-1 / 49.1 3-4 / 45.8 4-4 / 49.5 3-5 / 39.4 3-5 / 46.1 1-6 / 30.6 4-3 / 46.3 4-3 / 47.7 3-3-1 / 44.1 3-5 / 44.3 3-5 / 37.9 4-3 / 51.7 2-6 / 39.0 1-6 / 37.6 2-6 / 37.9 2-6 / 44.4 5-3 / 51.3 2-6 / 39.8 2-5-1 / 45.4 6-2 / 56.1 4-4 / 40.1 6-2 / 60.0 4-4 / 44.4 4-4 / 45.7 2-5 / 39.6 3-5 / 40.6 5-3 / 49.3 4-4 / 43.3 5-3 / 49.8 5-3 / 50.9 4-4 / 47.7 3-5 / 41.1 5-2 / 47.0 6-2 / 55.8 6-2 / 56.8 5-3 / 46.2 3-5 / 38.8 2-6 / 39.8 4-4 / 41.5 1-7 / 37.9 3-5 / 40.8 3-4-1 / 44.9 4-4 / 44.3 5-3 / 48.4 3-5 / 37.4 4-4 / 41.6 1-7 / 37.3 6-2 / 51.9 6-2 / 49.6 4-4 / 46.7 4-4 / 59.3 6-2 / 62.3 5-3 / 51.7 3-5 / 47.5 6-2 / 48.0 4-4 / 46.6 3-4 / 38.6 3-5 / 43.3 2-4-2 / 41.0 5-2 / 55.3 5-3 / 52.6 4-4 / 49.6 3-4-1 / 41.1 4-4 / 42.1 2-5-1 / 49.3 3-5 / 44.6 4-4 / 44.8 5-3 / 45.6 4-4 / 44.2 3-5 / 41.7 3-5 / 42.1 5-3 / 42.3 6-2 / 48.6 4-4 / 52.8 4-4 / 39.1 1-7 / 41.6 6-2 / 54.1 5-3 / 52.1 4-4 / 42.1 3-5 / 35.9 2-6 / 44.1 3-5 / 39.5 6-2 / 53.8 5-2-1 / 47.6 5-3 / 51.4 4-4 / 46.6 4-4 / 49.8 2-6 / 42.4 2-6 / 38.3 3-4-1 / 39.9 3-5 / 38.4 4-4 / 46.9 6-2 / 56.9 5-3 / 56.5 4-4 / 56.7 4-3-1 / 43.9 3-5 / 46.2 6-1-1 / 48.2 1-7 / 34.1 4-3 / 41.1 4-4 / 40.8 5-2-1 / 38.6 4-4 / 42.2 4-4 / 46.6 4-4 / 50.0 3-5 / 47.9 5-2-1 / 42.8 3-5 / 50.5 4-4 / 41.3 6-2 / 54.0 5-3 / 48.1 6-2 / 45.5 6-2 / 38.7 2-6 / 29.3 3-5 / 45.3 4-3-1 / 41.8 3-5 / 50.9 7-1 / 61.5 1-7 / 39.5 3-4-1 / 39.9 3-5 / 38.0 1-7 / 34.3 2-6 / 40.3 6-2 / 50.4 5-3 / 49.9 5-3 / 49.5 4-4 / 44.0 5-3 / 44.8 5-3 / 50.4 4-4 / 48.8 2-6 / 35.0 4-3-1 / 41.9 2-6 / 46.0 4-4 / 41.4 6-2 / 41.2 4-2-1 / 44.5 3-4-1 / 39.3 5-3 / 46.4 16-15-1 / 41.0 13-18 / 48.1 15-17 / 42.9 16-15 / 46.3 12-20 / 41.3 17-15 / 44.4 19-13 / 45.9 11-21 / 38.8 15-16-1 / 50.9 21-9-2 / 51.9 17-15 / 48.5 20-12 / 53.9 15-17 / 45.4 13-18-1 / 43.6 10-20 / 38.6 10-21-1 / 39.5 12-18-2 / 42.3 19-12 / 48.9 21-11 / 52.3 19-13 / 51.6 15-16-1 / 47.4 16-15-1 / 42.9 15-15-1 / 48.2 19-12-1 / 49.4 13-19 / 42.7 18-12-1 / 43.7 13-19 / 42.4 14-17-1 / 40.4 17-15 / 41.8 14-16-1 / 42.9 16-15-1 / 44.7 15-16-1 / 48.0 Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Miami Minnesota New England New Orleans NY Giants NY Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Diego San Francisco Seattle Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington 2012 2011 LAST 4 YEARS 5-3 / 51.4 1-7 / 41.6 3-4 / 46.0 4-4 / 46.7 5-2 / 53.6 3-4 / 44.0 4-3 / 46.0 3-4 / 44.8 1-6 / 35.3 4-4 / 41.2 3-4 / 44.6 4-3 / 46.0 4-2-1 / 46.3 5-2 / 54.0 5-2 / 57.9 6-2-1 / 47.9 4-5 / 43.7 1-5-1 / 39.0 4-2 / 51.5 4-3 / 47.8 4-3 / 51.5 3-4 / 42.0 3-3-1 / 47.3 3-4 / 51.3 2-4 / 44.9 1-5 / 36.7 2-4 / 43.1 5-2 / 46.7 3-4 / 42.0 3-4 / 47.1 4-3 / 43.6 4-2 / 48.8 2-5-1 / 38.3 2-7 / 48.4 5-3 / 49.9 2-7 / 41.0 6-2 / 51.0 6-2 / 50.6 1-7 / 37.4 3-5 / 39.6 7-1 / 64.8 4-4 / 48.4 1-7 / 35.3 4-4 / 44.1 4-4 / 40.5 5-3 / 57.6 6-3 / 42.3 2-6 / 38.6 3-5 / 45.8 2-6 / 40.2 4-4 / 48.0 5-3 / 52.1 6-2 / 49.7 4-4 / 44.4 5-4 / 41.8 4-3-1 / 53.3 3-5 / 43.6 3-5 / 38.5 4-4 / 48.1 3-5 / 40.8 4-4 / 39.5 4-4 / 47.9 3-5 / 45.6 4-4 / 47.4 4-4 / 43.4 4-4 / 51.1 4-4 / 46.8 5-2-1 / 48.5 3-5 / 38.0 6-2 / 63.4 4-3-1 / 40.8 4-4 / 42.5 4-3-1 / 49.5 5-3 / 61.2 3-5 / 44.6 6-2 / 57.6 3-5 / 40.0 4-4 / 45.1 6-3 / 47.3 4-4 / 48.1 4-4 / 40.5 7-2 / 53.8 4-4 / 46.3 2-6 / 40.3 3-5 / 43.5 5-3 / 42.6 5-3 / 47.5 6-2 / 59.1 4-4 / 48.7 4-4 / 43.3 3-5 / 46.8 5-3 / 42.0 3-5 / 39.7 3-5 / 42.4 3-4-1 / 44.2 4-4 / 48.6 3-5 / 36.8 4-4 / 48.2 2-5-1 / 38.6 3-5 / 45.7 5-3 / 47.9 6-2 / 45.6 4-4 / 44.7 3-5 / 44.8 2-6 / 43.4 5-3 / 47.4 5-2-1 / 49.8 4-4 / 49.5 3-5 / 43.5 4-4 / 50.6 5-3 / 49.1 3-4-1 / 39.6 2-5-1 / 37.2 3-5 / 44.0 5-3 / 53.2 5-3 / 57.9 1-7 / 39.8 3-5 / 37.3 3-4-1 / 45.4 2-6 / 42.2 6-2 / 47.1 3-5 / 38.4 6-2 / 46.7 4-4 / 45.1 4-4 / 39.9 5-3 / 51.2 5-3 / 50.1 6-2 / 55.1 2-6 / 39.6 4-4 / 41.4 6-2 / 38.8 5-3 / 47.6 5-2-1 / 56.2 3-5 / 41.2 5-2-1 / 42.2 2-5-1 / 36.2 3-4-1 / 44.1 4-4 / 47.5 7-1 / 58.5 4-4 / 53.4 4-4 / 42.9 4-4 / 44.1 2-6 / 33.3 3-5 / 34.3 2-6 / 39.9 4-4 / 48.1 6-2 / 54.8 4-4 / 53.1 5-3 / 50.8 5-3 / 47.6 4-3-1 / 48.6 3-4-1 / 42.6 4-4 / 36.0 2-6 / 33.1 6-2 / 51.8 3-5 / 37.6 4-4 / 38.3 6-3 / 52.2 3-5 / 40.9 2-6 / 35.3 11-20-1 / 39.5 14-19 / 47.3 17-14-1 / 43.5 15-17-1 / 45.7 19-12-1 / 48.3 21-11 / 50.2 14-16-2 / 41.3 12-19-1 / 40.8 16-14-2 / 50.4 18-14 / 51.1 16-15-1 / 47.0 18-14 / 51.1 14-18 / 41.7 17-15 / 49.3 19-15 / 43.0 12-19-1 / 40.1 11-20-1 / 40.8 16-17 / 46.5 19-13 / 50.6 16-16 / 50.1 15-17 / 45.9 17-15 / 43.0 17-14-2 / 45.8 15-15-2 / 49.3 17-15 / 43.8 12-20 / 38.3 19-13 / 48.3 15-17 / 41.4 15-17 / 39.3 18-15 / 48.4 14-17-1 / 45.2 16-16 / 46.6 6