IHS AUTOMOTIVE North American Powertrain Outlook UMTRI Focus on the Future Automotive Research Conferences ihs.com Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century: Revolution and Evolution Wednesday, July 22, 2015 Jeff Jowett Manager Americas Powertrain Forecasting
Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary
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Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary
U.S. CAFE and CO 2 Regulations 163 g/mile of CO 2 in 2025 = 54.5 mpg if all CO 2 emissions reductions are achieved with fuel economy technology 49.6 mpg in 2025 (unadjusted) 40-42 mpg (real world) According to Michael Sivak at UMTRI, the average fuel economy of all vehicles sold in calendar 2014 was 25.3 mpg (real world) 6
U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets Car Fleet Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance 7
U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets Truck Fleet Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance 8
Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary
Millions North America Engine Technology Trends 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 VVT Gas DI Stop/Start Gas Boosted Cyl Deac Gas-E85 Hybrid-Full Diesel Hybrid-Mild Electric Fuel Cell Source: IHS Automotive May 15, Engine installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America 10
Millions Higher Ratio Planetary and CVTs Grab the Lions Share of NAFTA Market 25 Design Type By Year 20 15 10 5 18% 61% Man EVT DCT CVT A8+ A6/7 A5 AMT 0 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 Source: IHS Automotive May 15, Transmission installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America
Diesel GDI Hybrid Electric Gas Boosted ICE+S/S Adv Trans AWD / 4WD Global Technology Islands in 2020 Legislation, drive cycle, and consumer choice dictate technology 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% North America South America 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Europe Middle East/Africa 12 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Greater China 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% South Asia Japan/Korea Source: IHS Automotive
U.S. Powertrain Sales Technology Trends 13 13
Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary
Millions FCA 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl
Millions Ford 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl
Millions General Motors 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl
Millions Honda 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 6 cyl 4 cyl
Millions Hyundai 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl
Millions Nissan 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl
Millions Toyota 1.8 2 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl
Thousands Volkswagen 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl
Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary
Final Thoughts Legislation is the most significant driver of industry change; this is creating the need for an abundance of new powertrain technologies to be created, refined, and manufactured CAFE and CO 2 regulations are extremely challenging for the U.S. market and some OEM s are already better positioned to meet those regulations than others There isn t one technology that will ultimately allow manufactures to meet the regulations. Whether by segment, or by OEM, there will be many different technology combinations Global powertrain platforms/architectures will continue to proliferate through the forecast horizon driven by competition, speed to market, economies of scale, and fulfilling requirements in both developed and developing markets 24
Thank you. Jeff Jowett Manager Americas Powertrain Forecasting +1 248-465-2829 jeff.jowett@ihs.com IHS Customer Care: Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); CustomerCare@ihs.com Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; Customer.Support@ihs.com Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; SupportAPAC@ihs.com 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at Customer Care (see phone numbers and email addresses above). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.