Tomorrow s Digitally Enabled Workforce Highlights and Key Themes in Our Research Over Recent Years Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD www.csiro.au
Our methods (strategic foresight) 1 Current Situation Analysis 2 Horizon Scanning (Trends Identification) Scenario Megatrend B 3 Trends Validation, Screening and Prioritisation Space 4 Synthesis of Trends to form Megatrends and Scenarios 5 Craft the Narrative (Communication Strategy) Now The Future
Our results MEGATRENDS SCENARIOS The Second Half of the Chessboard Tangibe Intangibles Porous Boundaries The Rising Bar The Era of the Entrepreneur Divergent Demographics
Are We (All) Jumping at Shadows? Why So Much Interest? January 2016 Report The Future of Jobs The future of work centenary initiative Australia s Future Workforce 4 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson The future of work: jobs and skills in 2030
Index of Real Wages (1778/82 = 100) Was the Industrial Revolution a Warm Up Act? 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Wages in England & Wales During the Industrial Revolution Real Wages Stagnation, 60 years 60 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 The Misunderstood Luddites, Wikipedia 5 Data source: Professor Charles Feinstein, The Journal of Economic History [56]
Robots are Improve Quickly The Journey of IBM s Watson 47% of Jobs in America at High Risk of Automation Michael Osbourne Oxford University Learn to race with the Machine, not against it Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAffee Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 6
What Jobs do People Get? After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in 20 mins. The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
Employment ('000s) Photographers Versus Lab Staff 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Australian Photographic Industry Photographers Developers/printers 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 8 ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total employment ( 000s) Printery Workers Versus Graphic Designers 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Printers/graphic press workers Graphic designers 9 ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total employment ( 000s) Accountants Versus Keyboard Operators 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Accountants Keyboard Operators 10 ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Hours worked per employee (monthly) Working Ever Longer 75 73 71 69 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics. 11 Individuals who work 55 h or more per week have a 1.3 times higher risk of incident stroke than those working standard 35-40 hour week. - Kivimäki, M et al. (2015) The Lancet. Study of 528,908 men and women. Largest study of its kind.
Labour Productivity (USD of GDP Per Hour Worked, Current Prices) Working Smarter (Not Just Harder) A high tech digitally enabled economy rewards intelligence more than brute force 100 80 Norway R 2 = 0.65 60 40 20 0 Australia Mexico 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 Average Hours Worked Per Person Per Week Stockholm, Pixabay Experiments in Sweden, reducing the work week from 8 to 6 hours tested by: Svartedalens elderly care home Internet startup, Brath Filimundus App Developer Stockholm city council Toyota service centre in Gothenburg Source: OECD Statistics Data Source: OECD Statistics, Labour productivity levels in the total economy, Data for 34 OECD Countries
Participation Rate (Percentage) Not Everyone is Making the Transition 82% Working Age Males in Australia, Labour Force Participation Rate 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Source: ABS (2015) 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics
Rethinking the Theory of the Firm? Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
1. Information asymmetry is where one party has more or better information than the other. But 2. Transaction Costs Are incurred in making an economic exchange (i.e. the cost of participating in a market). But consider two ways of buying an e-scooter from China. 1. Learn Cantonese 2. Travel to China 3. Search for sellers 4. Evaluate quality 5. Deal with Bureaucracy can customer generated content create symmetric information? Buy a Scooter 15 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Scenario Planning of the P2P Economy: A Case Study of Uber Scenario B3: Vehicle fleet automation New Data in a study by Scenario B2: Natural Uber S-shaped levelling off Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016 Scenario B4: Regulations bite, trust & confidence breaches Proxy measure for Market Share Scenario A1: Customer trust & quality perceptions won 16 Scenario A2: Nothing much happens
Democratisation of Innovation Solar Flare Jan 2015, NASA Lars Bo Jeppesen1 & Karim R. Lakhani 166 competitions and 12,000 scientists. Predicted 8 hours in advance with 85 percent accuracy and 24 hours with 75 percent accuracy Having expertise unrelated to the problem improves chances of success. 17
The Rising Bar University Degree Secondary School Data source: Department of Employment [31], ABS, Labour Force [32] 18 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent Pressures on Recent Graduates Percent of Australian bachelor degree holders working fulltime shortly after graduation 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Source: Graduate Careers Australia 19
Neglecting STEM at Our Own Cost STEM skills are need for 75% of the fastest growing occupations and wage premiums. But Australian youth aren t all that interested. Today 11% less year 12 students study math since 1992. There has been a 35% drop in enrolment in information technology subjects at universities since 2001. In my company we hire software developers by the tonne, but we are lucky to get two job applications a day. We put up an ad for an office manager and we got 350 applications in two days. Matt Barrie in the Sydney Morning Herald, 14 April 2014, Speaking at ATP Sydney. 20
Number of Investments Australian Venture Capital Funding Still Needs to be Restarted Post GFC 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Start Up Early Expansion Other Small businesses account for the largest proportion of employment in Australia - 43% in 2012-13. 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Data 21 source: Future of Work ABS, Venture Dr Stefan Hajkowicz capital and & Dr Andrew later stage Reeson private equity
The number of co-working spaces operating worldwide has nearly doubled each year since 2006 DeskMag Survey 22 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
By the year 2020 over 40% of the world s university degree-holders will be living in China and India OECD Statistics
Strategic Foresight @ Data61 CSIRO We combine research excellence with business relevance. We analyse trends, risks and scenarios with a focus on the digital economy. We do decision analysis. We help organisations make wise strategic choices and achieve their objectives. We live in Brisbane but we travel the world (and we try to get home in time for dinner).
Thank you Data 61 Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Research Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e Stefan.Hajkowicz@csiro.au www.csiro.au