Beyond the Headlines Economic Outlook and Forecast San Bernardino County Superintendent of Schools: Chief Officials September 30, 2016 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Economist/Director of Research, UCR Forecast
Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Inland Empire Conclusion/Policy Issues 2
Heard in the Headlines Fed Tightening: When and Likely Impact? The R Word: Aren t We Due for One? ElecUon 2016: Effects on the Economy? 3
U.S. Economy 4
Two Views of GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Gross Domes)c Product 2013I II III IV 2014I II III IV 2015I II III IV 2016I II 2013 2014 2015 GDP 1.7 2.4 2.6 Final Demand 1.2 3.3 3.3 Consumption 1.5 2.9 3.2 Goods 3.1 3.9 4 Services 0.6 2.3 2.8 Investment 6.1 4.5 5 Structures 1.4 10.3-4.4 Equipment 4.6 5.4 3.5 Intellectual Property 3.4 3.9 4.8 Residential 11.9 3.5 11.7 Change Inventories 43.9-26.7 45.6 Net Exports 2.4-0.1-4.5 Exports 3.5 4.3 0.1 Imports 1.1 4.4 4.6 Government -2.9-0.9 1.8 Federal -5.8-2.5 0 State and local -0.8 0.2 2.9 5
Consumer Spending- Flywheel of Economy YOY Change (%) Real Spending on Goods MA(3) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Real Goods (BEA) Nominal Retail (Census) 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 Annual Auto Light Truck Sales 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Aug 16 YTD: +0.5% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 6 2015
Key Sectors of Macroeconomy Consumer/Households /Capital Expenditures? Government InternaUonal Trade Other Macro Indicators Labor Market School of InflaUon! 7
International Trade 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 Real Imports and Exports 2010.1 2010.3 2011.1 2011.3 2012.1 2012.3 2013.1 2013.3 2014.1 2014.3 2015.1 2015.3 2016.1 Exports Imports Change in Nominal Goods Trade 2014 to 2015 Export s Imports Bal. Total -104.4-87.3-17.1 Canada -28.8-45.8 17 Netherlands -2.8-3.9 1.1 Belgium -0.6-1.2 0.6 India 0.3-0.1 0.4 Germany 0.2 0.3-0.1 Taiwan -0.5 0.1-0.6 Japan -3.5-2.7-0.8 France -1.1 0.6-1.7 UK 2.8 4.5-1.7 Italy -0.9 1.7-2.6 Korea, South -0.6 2.8-3.4 Mexico -3.6 1.3-4.9 Brazil -10-2.3-7.7 China -5.7 17.8-23.5 8
Unemployment Down, Openings Up 16.0 Unemployment 4.5 Job Opening Rate 14.0 4.0 12.0 3.5 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 U-6 Headline Jan-05 Mar-06 May-07 Jul-08 Sep-09 Nov-10 Jan-12 Mar-13 May-14 Jul-15 9
Labor Market/Industries on Track 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-13 Monthly Change Payroll Jobs By Sector 15-Jul 16-Jul % Total Nonfarm 142,001 144,448 1.7 Construction 6,437 6,652 3.3 Health Care 18,614 19,191 3.1 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Professional/ 19,707 20,257 2.8 Leisure 15,125 15,546 2.8 Administrative 8,832 9,054 2.5 Financial 8,137 8,299 2.0 Management 2,226 2,267 1.9 Retail Trade 15,671 15,960 1.8 Educational 3,462 3,523 1.8 Other 5,631 5,691 1.1 Information 2,756 2,783 1.0 Logistics 4,857 4,895 0.8 Wholesale Trade 5,876 5,922 0.8 Government 22,022 22,176 0.7 Manufacturing 12,336 12,305-0.3 NR/Mining 812 682-16.0 10
Much Needed Wage Gains vs. InNlation 4.0% 3.5% Annual % Change in Hourly Wage Annual Inflation Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 2.5% 1.1% -1.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 11 Kyser Center for Economic Research
Hot Issue: Household Income Growth 60 57.9 Median HH Income in Thousands of 2015 Dollars 57.4 56.5 55 53.7 50 45 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12
U.S. Outlook ConUnued US Economic Growth: ~2.0% DomesUc Spending Intact: Consumers es Government US IsolaUon Limits Global Spillovers Oil Price Plunge: Oil Glut Financial Market VolaUlity/Fed Rate Hikes: Savings Glut Secular StagnaUon 13
California Economy 14
CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly 14% 12% Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted U.S.: 4.9% CA : 5.5% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 15
CA Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted 4 US: +1.7% CA: +2.3% 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 16
CA Among Faster Growing States (2.0%) 17
California Outlook ConUnued Economic Growth in State/Regions Job Gains Across Spectrum of Industries Strength in Healthcare, Tech, Medical, ConstrucUon, Tourism Venture Capital in 2016 (first half 2016): CA: $16.6 B Other 49 States: $11.4 B 18
Inland Empire 19
Southern California Unemployment Rates 16 Unemployment Rates in Southern California 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange County San Diego 20
Job Gains Across California YTY % Change Jobs (Aug.'16) Stockton-Lodi MSA San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA Fresno MSA Santa Rosa MSA Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine Metro Div Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley Metro Div Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade MSA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA Bakersfield MSA San Diego-Carlsbad MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Metro Div Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura MSA 2.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 21
Absolute Job Gains, Selected MSAs MSA YTY Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura MSA 3,200 Bakersfield MSA 5,200 Santa Rosa MSA 6,100 Stockton-Lodi MSA 7,500 Fresno MSA 10,400 Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade MSA 22,300 Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley Metro Div 27,100 San Diego-Carlsbad MSA 27,100 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA 30,100 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA 34,300 Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine Metro Div 40,800 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Metro Div 76,100 Note: Seasonally Adjusted Figures by MSA Shown 22
IE Job Changes vs. CA YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted 6.0% CA: +2.3% IE: 2.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 23
Employment & Formation 750 Non-Farm Employment 65,000 Establishments 700 60,000 650 55,000 000s 600 550 50,000 45,000 500 Q1-07 Q4-07 Q3-08 Q2-09 Q1-10 Q4-10 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Riverside San Bernardino 40,000 Q1-07 Q4-07 Q3-08 Q2-09 Q1-10 Q4-10 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Riverside San Bernardino
Inland Empire Job Changes by Industry EducaUonal Services TransportaUon & Warehousing Government Wholesale Trade ConstrucUon Other Services Manufacturing Professional, ScienUfic & Technical Services Health Care & Social Assistance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality InformaUon AdministraUve & Support & Waste Services Finance & Insurance 2.6% 2.3% YTY % (Aug '16) -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 25
Wholesale Trade and Transportation/ Warehousing Employment 180,000 Wholesale Trade and Transporta)on/Warehouse Employment in the Inland Empire 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 San Bernardino Riverside
San Pedro Ports On Track for Near Record Year Aug 16 YTD % Total: +0.9% Inbound Loaded: +0.2% Outbound Loaded: +2.7% 11.8 13.1 14.2 15.8 15.7 14.3 11.8 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 27
Manufacturing Employment 140,000 Manufacturing Employment in the Inland Empire 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 San Bernardino Riverside
IE Manufacturing Output Rising 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 GDP Qty Index for Mfg, IE (2009=100) 106.3 109.8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 29
Construction Employment 140,000 Construc)on Employment in the Inland Empire 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 San Bernardino Riverside
Leisure & Hospitality Employment 180,000 Leisure and Hospitality Employment in the Inland Empire 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 San Bernardino Riverside
Retail Trade Employment 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Retail Trade Employment in the Inland Empire Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 San Bernardino Riverside
Professional, ScientiNic, and Technical Employment 45,000 Professional, Scien)fic, and Technical Employment in the Inland Empire 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 San Bernardino Riverside
Real Median Household Income Up RV: +2.3% SB: +3.4% 58,292 53,803 LA: +6.1% CA: +4.1% OC: +2.8% 2015 2014 US: +3.9% 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 34
IE Taxable Sales On The Rise 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Q1-00 Q4-00 Q3-01 Q2-02 Q1-03 Q4-03 Q3-04 Q2-05 IE Taxable Sales ($ millions) Q1-06 Q4-06 Q3-07 Q2-08 Q1-09 Q4-09 Q3-10 Q2-11 Q1-12 Q4-12 Q3-13 Q2-14 Q1-15 Q4-15 35
SB Taxable Sales On The Rise 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Q1-00 Q4-00 Q3-01 Q2-02 Q1-03 Q4-03 SB County Taxable Sales ($ millions) Q3-04 Q2-05 Q1-06 Q4-06 Q3-07 Q2-08 Q1-09 Q4-09 Q3-10 Q2-11 Q1-12 Q4-12 Q3-13 Q2-14 Q1-15 Q4-15 36
Real Estate 37
So Cal Residential Outlook Price Change Sales Change Aug-15 Jul-16 Aug-16 MTM YTY MTM YTY Los Angeles $492,360 $513,700 $517,400 0.7% 5.1% 2.6% 5.4% Orange $714,380 $734,000 $749,000 2.0% 4.8% 8.2% 9.3% Riverside $335,000 $359,900 $355,000-1.4% 6.0% 0.9% 12.1% San Bernardino $230,530 $248,210 $243,370-1.9% 5.6% 1.9% 1.4% San Diego $539,000 $560,000 $563,000 0.5% 4.5% 2.6% 7.6% Ventura $620,150 $644,010 $652,330 1.3% 5.2% -3.4% -5.7% Lean inventories Demand Drivers: job/income growth, low rates, demographics Supply Drivers: rising prices, low rates Constraints: Ume, development costs 38
So Cal Residential Outlook Median Home Price for Exis)ng SFR Exis)ng SFR Home Sales 450,000 12,000 400,000 11,000 10,000 350,000 9,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 100,000 2,000 Q1-00 Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-00 Q2-01 Q3-02 Q4-03 Q1-05 Q2-06 Q3-07 Q4-08 Q1-10 Q2-11 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q1-15 Q2-16 San Bernardino Riverside San Bernardino Riverside 39
Housing Affordability: % of HHs Affording Median Priced Home State/Region/County Q2-15 Q2-16 Los Angeles 30 30 Orange County 21 22 Riverside County 40 41 San Bernardino County 56 56 San Diego County 25 26 Ventura 25 29 California 30 31 United States-All ExisUng 57 57 40
Residential Housing Construction 60,000 Housing Units Permifed for Construc)on Inland Empire, 2000-2016YTD Single-Family MulU-Family 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 (YTD) (YTD) 41
Housing Permits, San Bernardino County 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Single-family MulU-family -5.6% YTD (Q2 16) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 42
Apartment Rents 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 Rents in Southern California Inland Empire Los Angeles (MD) Orange County (MD) San Diego Q2-05 Q2-06 Q2-07 Q2-08 Q2-09 Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Q2-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Wages Rents Share Santa Cruz $46,133 $1,774 46% Sonoma $48,290 $1,465 36% San Joaquin $42,850 $1,275 36% Orange $59,274 $1,724 35% Monterey $43,463 $1,243 34% Tulare $35,701 $986 33% Santa Barbara $51,015 $1,408 33% San Bernardino $43,094 $1,168 33% Riverside $43,313 $1,168 32% Contra Costa $63,087 $1,701 32% San Diego $57,702 $1,532 32% San Francisco $97,903 $2,517 31% Alameda $68,326 $1,701 30% Fresno $40,473 $885 26% Kern $43,387 $922 26% Sacramento $56,477 $1,063 23% Santa Clara $115,437 $2,074 22% 43
Non Residential Real Estate Vacancy Rate and Rent Growth in the Inland Empire Q2-15 Q2-16 Office Vacancy Rate 23.9 22.0 Office Rent Growth (YoY) 1.3 1.2 Retail Vacancy Rate 9.4 9.7 Retail Rent Growth (YoY) 1.7 2.5 Flex/R&D Vacancy Rate 10.9 9.8 Flex/R&D Growth (YoY) 2.2 2.4 Warehouse Vacancy Rate 10.7 10.2 Warehouse Growth (YoY) 2.0 2.9 44
Conclusion/Looking School Ahead of 45
Mix of Industries Matters EXPORT-ORIENTED enormous potenual LogisUcs = TransportaUon & Warehousing + Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Tourism & Entertainment Professional, ScienUfic, and Technical Servics LOCAL SERVING enormous market Health Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality 46
Composition of Industry by County 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Industry Share of Non-Farm Employment (%): 2015 Riverside San Bernardino California Los Angeles Orange
Bottom Line Education Counts! Educational Attainment LA County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County Less than high school diploma 21.9% 15.9% 20.4% 17.1% High school graduate 21.2% 17.3% 26.8% 18.4% Some college, no degree 19.2% 20.5% 25.1% 23.6% Associate's degree 6.8% 7.6% 7.7% 8.2% Bachelor's degree 20.2% 25.1% 12.9% 20.9% Graduate or professional degree 10.7% 13.7% 7.2% 11.9% Median Household Income $59,134 $78,428 $56,048 $80,032
Commuting Patterns Will Evolve Live In Work in LA OC RV SB VN LA 4,050,061 182,262 54,006 132,235 68,408 OC 178,536 1,195,005 71,355 34,568 1,052 RV 14,131 14,301 587,446 60,089 275 SB 55,014 12,369 92,082 550,372 378 VN 35,996 476 489 649 296,273 Rest of CA 25,793 20,603 46,661 6,449 14,018 Total 4,359,531 1,425,016 852,039 784,362 380,404 Work in Home County 92.9% 83.9% 68.9% 70.2% 77.9%
Outlook ConUnued Economic Growth in IE Strength in Healthcare, LogisUcs, ConstrucUon, Leisure & Hospitality, Manufacturing Housing and Real Estate 50
Outlook Regional OpportuniUes: Proximity to Major So Cal Markets Affordable Housing AxracUng Educated Workers Regional Challenges: EducaUonal Axainment 51
Population Dynamics 350 300 250 200 150 Popula)on Index 1980=100 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Popula)on Growth from Net Migra)on 100 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014-2.0% U.S. California Riverside San Bernardino Riverside San Bernardino 52
The Next 20 Years 125 120 115 110 105 So-Cal Popula)on Forecast (Indexed) Thousands I.E. Popula)on Forecast 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 1.2 million people in 20 years or X 7 Rancho Cucamonga 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 LA OC IE Riverside San Bernardino 53
Population Forecast by Age Riverside Current 15-35 Gr < 18 604,115 54,511 9.0% 18-24 243,771 19,455 8.0% 25-65 1,170,522 329,668 28.2% 65+ 318,088 298,974 94.0% Total 2,336,496 702,607 30.1% San Bernardino Current 15-35 Gr < 18 579,990 47,653 8.2% 18-24 229,778 14,920 6.5% 25-65 1,088,787 209,470 19.2% 65+ 234,499 244,764 104.4% Total 2,133,053 516,806 24.2% 2400000 2200000 2000000 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 I.E. Employment Forecast 2000 500,000 new local jobs 2005 2010 ResidenUal Employment 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Payroll Employment 54
Planning Ahead In Summary 1.2 million new people 500,000 new payroll jobs 140,000 more youth 540,000 people of reurement age Demographic Issues Housing for the new populauon Healthcare, parucularly for the reured EducaUon from K through College Preparing for density Economic Issues Training for the new jobs in the region Infrastructure for movement of goods and workers Planning and construcuon urban job centers 55
State Revenues & School Funding Revs/Per ADA Rising San Bernardino California 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 State Revenue Depends Heavily on Income Taxes VolaUle Revenue Stream, Hence Wide Budget Swings Need Tax Structure With More Stable Revenue Stream 56
The Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the Nirst world class university forecasting center located in Inland Southern California. The Center s mission is to expand knowledge of the regional economy and serve as a robust resource to the governments, businesses, and people of the Inland region. Available Services Economic Forecasting Regional Intelligence Reports & Market Analysis Real Estate Market Analysis Ports & Infrastructure Analysis Economic Impact Analysis Public Policy Analysis 900 University Ave. Riverside, CA 92521 951-827-6329 http://soba.ucr.edu Email the Speaker: Robert.Kleinhenz@ucr.edu 57